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Gold: Past, Present, and Future

Started by Melissa Sanchez17 · · 👁 73 views · 3K replies

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Participants Melissa Sanchez17dustyheron5quiettrucker12Anthony Evans78Sean Carteranalogharbor44feralpuma12ironstag8Amanda Carter7lonehawk5briskjackal5Andrew Barrett4Dennis Fisher5granitegull51Zachary Mendoza2Christian Miller14neondriver5George Sullivan902nimblepanther18Jerry Wright6Patrick Moore3wearygull4Taylor Robinson51wearyotter36 …
Walter Barrett8 Walter Barrett8 Member
26 messages
joined May 2012
#641 ·
I guess hard facts actually carry more weight than those mindless, politically correct video games:

http://reuters.com/business/us-economy-gender-pay-gap-billions
neondriver5 neondriver5 Active Member
116 messages
joined May 2017
#642 ·
I’m not sure if we just rattled the cage of the gold bugs, but I can’t remember the last time gold jumped 3.5 percent in a single day.😍
Man, if I had a position right now... I'd be shorting this move in a heartbeat.

One more time: does anyone know of any reliable US brokers that offer trading on gold ETFs? Maybe even some options.
This is like taking candy from a baby.
dustyheron5 dustyheron5 Regular
353 messages
joined Nov 2015
#643 ·
neondriver5 said:I’m not sure if we just rattled the cage of the gold bugs, but I can’t remember the last time gold jumped 3.5 percent in a single day.😍
Man, if I had a position right now... I'd be shorting this move in a heartbeat.

One more time: does anyone know of any reliable US brokers that offer trading on gold ETFs? Maybe even some options.
This is like taking candy from a baby.

To all you skeptics out there: keep coming back—and preferably in larger numbers next time.😂😂😂

As for those "safe" bonds you want to snatch out of your kids' mouths... here is your opening. Just be brave.😍NYSE; Goldman Sachs, 4.83 USD (-7.47%)—go all in.
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#644 ·
I step away from the screen for two days and get flooded with enough posts to drown in.

These visits from the skeptics 😁 are clearly a solid indicator of sentiment whenever we hit rock bottom or hover right around it. Meanwhile, miners (precious metals, obviously—look at the index) are up nearly 20% in just 11 trading days.

Lately, gold has been acting more like a commodity, moving in lockstep with the CRB index (and even tracking the stock market recently), while the Federal Reserve has turned the dollar into a safe haven.

Today, though, things took a weird turn. As usual, the stock market is sliding, commodities are down, but the miners are pumping.
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#645 ·
Man, that’s a lot of text. Honestly, 🙂😉

crimsonranger38 said:Warren Buffett

Your opening sentence is pure nonsense. If you actually believe that, you seriously need to go back to school and re-indoctrinate yourself. Gold and silver aren't money—period. You can’t walk into a store and buy a gallon of milk or pay your barber with a hunk of bullion. To get anything done, you have to sell those metals first just to get the actual cash required for a transaction. As for your claim that these two metals can't be overvalued? That's just your opinion. The market—meaning the vast majority of people—clearly disagrees, which is exactly why prices have tanked by at least 20%.

The market overvalued it. Period. That’s the bottom line. Second, just because you personally believe money needs to be some permanent, unchanging thing doesn't mean that's how reality works. End of story. In that light, money could just as easily be platinum, iridium, palladium, osmium, rhodium, ruthenium, mercury, copper, or any other precious metal. Honestly, it’s almost unnecessary to point out that most of those metals are far more useful in a practical sense than gold. Gold has virtually zero utility compared to something like copper or rhodium. At the end of the day, people decide what counts as money for them. It’s entirely possible that most Americans might wake up tomorrow, decide the USD isn't worth their time anymore, and start trading goods and services in something else entirely.

Let’s go over this one more time: gold and silver aren't money. In their current physical state, they’re about as useful as an onion or a piece of real estate. However, unlike gold, silver and copper actually offer some sort of net benefit to society. They are productive assets. Gold? For the most part, it just ends up being used to plate microchips to make them look pretty. 😍

You’ve reached that stage where you claim nothing in this world can be truly measured against gold and silver—as if those metals are the only real currency in existence, some kind of divine standard held sacred only by you and your ilk. That’s nonsense. Of course everything can be compared. If you want proof, head down to the local farmers market and ask the vendor how much a pound of onions costs. Then, walk over to a jeweler and ask them to calculate exactly how much gold you’d need to trade for that same pound of onions. That jeweler doesn't know the price of an ounce of gold because they simply decided it was worth $10,000; they know it because the market dictated it. If the market suddenly decided an ounce of gold was worth $100,000, then that’s what it would be. Period. The price of gold, just like the price of anything else, is driven by supply and demand. And we all know the deal here: global gold supply is stagnating while demand keeps climbing—mostly fueled by speculators—which is exactly why the price keeps climbing. Simple math.

Look, there are properties out there with market values exceeding $10,000 per square foot. Ask the average person what they’d pick: a 1,000-square-foot home in the heart of NYC, Chicago, or Los Angeles, or maybe 770 ounces of gold. I suspect most people would choose the house they can actually live in. You can't exactly move into a bar of gold. Sorry, but you can stare at it and admire how shiny it is, but it's perishable and useless for shelter.

I wasn't aware that fiat currency had absolutely no value. If that's the case, I assume you won't mind handing over all that worthless paper in your wallet or sitting in your bank account to me. I'd be quite grateful, and honestly, I'd be doing you a favor by taking that trash off your hands—just scraps of paper that serve no purpose. Any system, current or future, means nothing without the people participating in it. The issue here is the human element. We aren't going to fix today's crisis simply by swapping out the system. At the end of the day, despite its flaws, this system helped build the standard of living we enjoy today—which is undoubtedly the highest in human history. If the political elites would just stop trying to micromanage market processes, things might actually improve for everyone.

As far as I'm concerned, that's just plain old demagoguery, the kind of stuff you hear on the news every single day. We cannot describe an era of unprecedented standards of living for Americans, alongside hundreds of millions of people being lifted out of poverty, as "benefiting a few while harming everyone else."

Warren Buffett says:
Mary Asks:
The beauty of this whole setup for a select few is that most people will fight tooth and nail to defend and maintain it. They cling to it desperately. That works right up until the moment the system starts cracking—which, if you ask me, actually began the very day Nixon signed his name on the dotted line.
Ha, sure. Let’s just pivot back to that glorious gold standard you’re obsessed with, because that would obviously make your net worth skyrocket overnight. How incredibly convenient for you, right? Honestly, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that movie to start playing. You’ll probably just stick to your usual routine: daydreaming about the total collapse of the global financial system. Hey, nobody can take your fantasies away from you.

And another thing; if you honestly believe everything went south on August 15, 1971, then you clearly haven't done your homework. You’re missing the most basic facts. That whole "Gold Standard" era following World War II was essentially an illusion, and the money supply proves it. During the 26 years of BWS's life, the money supply surged from $107 billion to $720 billion—that's nearly a sevenfold increase. We're looking at an average annual growth rate of 7.7%, which actually outpaces the 5.4% we've seen over the last 27 years. Even inflation rates back then were higher than what we've dealt with recently. Honestly, even a kid in elementary school could see that there wasn't really a Gold Standard in play.

And here’s another crucial point for the record: I can’t for the life of me remember a single time the United States or the UK actually maintained 100% gold backing for their entire money supply. If memory serves—and I try to be precise about these things—the last time we saw anything resembling a legitimate gold standard was back in the mid-19th century, and even then, coverage only hovered around 30%.

If the United States actually wanted to go back to being 100% gold-backed—I can’t even remember the last time we did that—we’d have to revalue gold from its current price of $1,600 all the way up to $60,000 per ounce. Just to hit a 30% coverage level? You’re looking at roughly $17,900 an ounce. It’s the same math for the Eurozone; you’d be looking at $59,000 and $17,600 respectively to hit those targets. For anyone currently hoarding gold, that would be the ultimate jackpot. That’s exactly why the last few holdouts are screaming for a return to the gold standard. They want the payday, but they clearly haven't done the math on the absolute chaos they'd be inviting.

Don't get me wrong—I'm not suggesting the United States and the Eurozone are just printing money like there’s no tomorrow. But let's look at the math. If China were backed 100% by gold, an ounce would need to hit $432,000. Even with a more modest 30% coverage, we're looking at $130,000. It’s all about the ratios. For Russia, those numbers jump to $315,000 and $95,000 respectively. Japan sits at $466,000 and $140,000. And then you have Brazil, where things get truly absurd: $1,520,000 or $456,000 depending on how much skin you have in the game. Numbers don't lie; they just reveal how thin the ice really is. 😍

It would be absolutely bloody marvelous if someone holding $10,000 worth of gold today could just flip it tomorrow for $375,000 or maybe $112,000. A total windfall. But let’s be real—that isn't going to happen, no matter how many doomsday scenarios certain folks in this thread try to conjure up. 😍

I’ve always had a certain level of skepticism toward people who believe that repeating a lie a hundred times will somehow turn it into an undeniable truth on the hundred-and-first attempt. It’s a special kind of delusion. Think about it this way: imagine you walk up to a local farmer's market vendor and try to settle your tab for some organic produce by offering them a handful of gold or silver coins. You might be convinced of their intrinsic value, but that doesn't matter. What matters is how the crowd perceives them. Most Americans don't view gold as "money" in the everyday sense—just like they wouldn't try to pay for a latte with Danish Krone or British Pounds. The reality is simple, if a bit cynical: that vendor is going to take your US dollars long before they ever touch your scrap metal. At the end of the day, consensus beats conviction every single time.

Money, much like anything else in this universe, carries a price tag—a value. That value is ultimately defined by the goods and services you can actually grab with it. In certain corners of the globe, its purchasing power is climbing, whereas out here in the West, we’re seeing a more moderate slide. Then again, if you look at it through the lens of real estate, the dollar's strength tells a different story in many Western nations. It’s been much the same since last summer regarding gold and silver; the dollar has gained ground against those metals, and even against some of the more obscure currencies you might encounter.

It’s a total cult, really. You’ve already gone and said it three times—even went through the trouble of bolding it—that gold and silver are fundamentally different from every other form of currency out there. 😍

Warren Buffett

In that light, money starts looking less like paper and more like copper or some other chemical element on the periodic table.

Since you brought it up, what would you choose right now?

crimsonranger38 said:Warren Buffett

Your opening sentence is pure nonsense. If you actually believe that, you seriously need to go back to school and re-indoctrinate yourself. Gold and silver aren't money—period. You can’t walk into a store and buy a gallon of milk or pay your barber with a hunk of bullion. To get anything done, you have to sell those metals first just to get the actual cash required for a transaction. As for your claim that these two metals can't be overvalued? That's just your opinion. The market—meaning the vast majority of people—clearly disagrees, which is exactly why prices have tanked by at least 20%.

The market overvalued it. Period. That’s the bottom line. Second, just because you personally believe money needs to be some permanent, unchanging thing doesn't mean that's how reality works. End of story. In that light, money could just as easily be platinum, iridium, palladium, osmium, rhodium, ruthenium, mercury, copper, or any other precious metal. Honestly, it’s almost unnecessary to point out that most of those metals are far more useful in a practical sense than gold. Gold has virtually zero utility compared to something like copper or rhodium. At the end of the day, people decide what counts as money for them. It’s entirely possible that most Americans might wake up tomorrow, decide the USD isn't worth their time anymore, and start trading goods and services in something else entirely.

Let’s go over this one more time: gold and silver aren't money. In their current physical state, they’re about as useful as an onion or a piece of real estate. However, unlike gold, silver and copper actually offer some sort of net benefit to society. They are productive assets. Gold? For the most part, it just ends up being used to plate microchips to make them look pretty. 😍

You’ve reached that stage where you claim nothing in this world can be truly measured against gold and silver—as if those metals are the only real currency in existence, some kind of divine standard held sacred only by you and your ilk. That’s nonsense. Of course everything can be compared. If you want proof, head down to the local farmers market and ask the vendor how much a pound of onions costs. Then, walk over to a jeweler and ask them to calculate exactly how much gold you’d need to trade for that same pound of onions. That jeweler doesn't know the price of an ounce of gold because they simply decided it was worth $10,000; they know it because the market dictated it. If the market suddenly decided an ounce of gold was worth $100,000, then that’s what it would be. Period. The price of gold, just like the price of anything else, is driven by supply and demand. And we all know the deal here: global gold supply is stagnating while demand keeps climbing—mostly fueled by speculators—which is exactly why the price keeps climbing. Simple math.

Look, there are properties out there with market values exceeding $10,000 per square foot. Ask the average person what they’d pick: a 1,000-square-foot home in the heart of NYC, Chicago, or Los Angeles, or maybe 770 ounces of gold. I suspect most people would choose the house they can actually live in. You can't exactly move into a bar of gold. Sorry, but you can stare at it and admire how shiny it is, but it's perishable and useless for shelter.

I wasn't aware that fiat currency had absolutely no value. If that's the case, I assume you won't mind handing over all that worthless paper in your wallet or sitting in your bank account to me. I'd be quite grateful, and honestly, I'd be doing you a favor by taking that trash off your hands—just scraps of paper that serve no purpose. Any system, current or future, means nothing without the people participating in it. The issue here is the human element. We aren't going to fix today's crisis simply by swapping out the system. At the end of the day, despite its flaws, this system helped build the standard of living we enjoy today—which is undoubtedly the highest in human history. If the political elites would just stop trying to micromanage market processes, things might actually improve for everyone.

As far as I'm concerned, that's just plain old demagoguery, the kind of stuff you hear on the news every single day. We cannot describe an era of unprecedented standards of living for Americans, alongside hundreds of millions of people being lifted out of poverty, as "benefiting a few while harming everyone else."

Warren Buffett says:
Mary Asks:
The beauty of this whole setup for a select few is that most people will fight tooth and nail to defend and maintain it. They cling to it desperately. That works right up until the moment the system starts cracking—which, if you ask me, actually began the very day Nixon signed his name on the dotted line.
Ha, sure. Let’s just pivot back to that glorious gold standard you’re obsessed with, because that would obviously make your net worth skyrocket overnight. How incredibly convenient for you, right? Honestly, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that movie to start playing. You’ll probably just stick to your usual routine: daydreaming about the total collapse of the global financial system. Hey, nobody can take your fantasies away from you.

And another thing; if you honestly believe everything went south on August 15, 1971, then you clearly haven't done your homework. You’re missing the most basic facts. That whole "Gold Standard" era following World War II was essentially an illusion, and the money supply proves it. During the 26 years of BWS's life, the money supply surged from $107 billion to $720 billion—that's nearly a sevenfold increase. We're looking at an average annual growth rate of 7.7%, which actually outpaces the 5.4% we've seen over the last 27 years. Even inflation rates back then were higher than what we've dealt with recently. Honestly, even a kid in elementary school could see that there wasn't really a Gold Standard in play.

And here’s another crucial point for the record: I can’t for the life of me remember a single time the United States or the UK actually maintained 100% gold backing for their entire money supply. If memory serves—and I try to be precise about these things—the last time we saw anything resembling a legitimate gold standard was back in the mid-19th century, and even then, coverage only hovered around 30%.

If the United States actually wanted to go back to being 100% gold-backed—I can’t even remember the last time we did that—we’d have to revalue gold from its current price of $1,600 all the way up to $60,000 per ounce. Just to hit a 30% coverage level? You’re looking at roughly $17,900 an ounce. It’s the same math for the Eurozone; you’d be looking at $59,000 and $17,600 respectively to hit those targets. For anyone currently hoarding gold, that would be the ultimate jackpot. That’s exactly why the last few holdouts are screaming for a return to the gold standard. They want the payday, but they clearly haven't done the math on the absolute chaos they'd be inviting.

Don't get me wrong—I'm not suggesting the United States and the Eurozone are just printing money like there’s no tomorrow. But let's look at the math. If China were backed 100% by gold, an ounce would need to hit $432,000. Even with a more modest 30% coverage, we're looking at $130,000. It’s all about the ratios. For Russia, those numbers jump to $315,000 and $95,000 respectively. Japan sits at $466,000 and $140,000. And then you have Brazil, where things get truly absurd: $1,520,000 or $456,000 depending on how much skin you have in the game. Numbers don't lie; they just reveal how thin the ice really is. 😍

It would be absolutely bloody marvelous if someone holding $10,000 worth of gold today could just flip it tomorrow for $375,000 or maybe $112,000. A total windfall. But let’s be real—that isn't going to happen, no matter how many doomsday scenarios certain folks in this thread try to conjure up. 😍

I’ve always had a certain level of skepticism toward people who believe that repeating a lie a hundred times will somehow turn it into an undeniable truth on the hundred-and-first attempt. It’s a special kind of delusion. Think about it this way: imagine you walk up to a local farmer's market vendor and try to settle your tab for some organic produce by offering them a handful of gold or silver coins. You might be convinced of their intrinsic value, but that doesn't matter. What matters is how the crowd perceives them. Most Americans don't view gold as "money" in the everyday sense—just like they wouldn't try to pay for a latte with Danish Krone or British Pounds. The reality is simple, if a bit cynical: that vendor is going to take your US dollars long before they ever touch your scrap metal. At the end of the day, consensus beats conviction every single time.

Money, much like anything else in this universe, carries a price tag—a value. That value is ultimately defined by the goods and services you can actually grab with it. In certain corners of the globe, its purchasing power is climbing, whereas out here in the West, we’re seeing a more moderate slide. Then again, if you look at it through the lens of real estate, the dollar's strength tells a different story in many Western nations. It’s been much the same since last summer regarding gold and silver; the dollar has gained ground against those metals, and even against some of the more obscure currencies you might encounter.

It’s a total cult, really. You’ve already gone and said it three times—even went through the trouble of bolding it—that gold and silver are fundamentally different from every other form of currency out there. 😍

Warren Buffett

In that light, money starts looking less like paper and more like copper or some other chemical element on the periodic table.

I get the point, but... In trader speak, Silvercorp and San Francisco are "investors," not speculators. To me, they are the perfect "riders" for a bull market. I wrote a ton about this 7 or 8 months ago. They don't flinch during corrections, which is great, but there's a massive catch: they think the bull market will last forever, so when the end comes, they won't sell in time. Even the people planning an early exit might not make it out. If we were trying to build the ultimate bull market rider, they’d need to act like Silvercorp and San Francisco for the first 90% of the run, then suddenly transform into completely different people for the last 10%—selling everything instantly to grab whatever is undervalued at that moment. Personally, I think we're in a bull market unlike anything we'll ever see again. Just getting in early isn't enough; the trick is getting out early—before it's too late.

So, my take is that anyone smart enough to bail before the crash (maybe even 20% before the peak) would likely buckle and sell during a minor correction instead. This applies to any bull market, especially this "my precious" thing that keeps shining.

A winning combo would be: Person A buys gold and holds it, while Person B inherits that gold right at the tail end of the bull market, dumps it immediately, and pivots into something else.

As for the idea that silver will outperform gold—that's a shallow argument just because silver is an industrial metal. The idea that it has more upside simply because it's much cheaper than gold sounds a lot more convincing to me.
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#646 ·
neondriver5 said:I’m not sure if we just rattled the cage of the gold bugs, but I can’t remember the last time gold jumped 3.5 percent in a single day.😍
Man, if I had a position right now... I'd be shorting this move in a heartbeat.

One more time: does anyone know of any reliable US brokers that offer trading on gold ETFs? Maybe even some options.
This is like taking candy from a baby.

You're joking, but honestly? From a trader's perspective, this kind of "attack" on a topic is actually a stellar indicator that we’re hitting bottom. When everyone is absolutely convinced a move is headed south, that's usually when it stops dropping. On the flip side, gold is going to need a few days before that 10-day moving average starts trending upward. We might see some sideways oscillation or just a bit of consolidation—maybe even a slight bump up—during those next couple of days. Here’s where that 10-day average stands:

Check out this chart for Gold. It’s showing the daily movement over the last three months. Take a look.

What we’re seeing around February 25th isn't the same deal—by then, that blue line had already caught an upward trend.

Look, regardless of what anyone says about practice, shorting right now isn't even on the table. There isn't a single setup out there that looks more bullish for gold than this.

Stocks - S&P 500:
Check out this chart for the S&P 500. It’s doing exactly what you’d expect. No surprises here, just more of the same.

Commodities - CRB:
Check out this chart on Commodities. It’s doing exactly what you’d expect. Just another day in the markets.

Everything is bleeding red, yet gold is absolutely crushing it—and the Federal Reserve hasn't even seen a significant drop in value.

And one last little sweetener for you miners:

I can't access external links directly, but if you paste the text from that chart analysis here, I’ll get to work. Just give me the raw content, and I'll rewrite it into my usual style—short, punchy, and straight to the point.

Which stocks are tracking that? Take a look at the S&P 500 above.

----------------------
I find it hard to believe we’ll see anything dip below 1600 before those fluctuations catch up to the 10-day moving average. Once we actually start moving up, the next resistance level should sit right around 1643 or 1644.
Walter Barrett8 Walter Barrett8 Member
26 messages
joined May 2012
#647 ·
quiettrucker12 said:Man, that’s a lot of text. Honestly, 🙂😉

Since you brought it up, what would you choose right now?

I get the point, but... In trader speak, Silvercorp and San Francisco are "investors," not speculators. To me, they are the perfect "riders" for a bull market. I wrote a ton about this 7 or 8 months ago. They don't flinch during corrections, which is great, but there's a massive catch: they think the bull market will last forever, so when the end comes, they won't sell in time. Even the people planning an early exit might not make it out. If we were trying to build the ultimate bull market rider, they’d need to act like Silvercorp and San Francisco for the first 90% of the run, then suddenly transform into completely different people for the last 10%—selling everything instantly to grab whatever is undervalued at that moment. Personally, I think we're in a bull market unlike anything we'll ever see again. Just getting in early isn't enough; the trick is getting out early—before it's too late.

So, my take is that anyone smart enough to bail before the crash (maybe even 20% before the peak) would likely buckle and sell during a minor correction instead. This applies to any bull market, especially this "my precious" thing that keeps shining.

A winning combo would be: Person A buys gold and holds it, while Person B inherits that gold right at the tail end of the bull market, dumps it immediately, and pivots into something else.

As for the idea that silver will outperform gold—that's a shallow argument just because silver is an industrial metal. The idea that it has more upside simply because it's much cheaper than gold sounds a lot more convincing to me.

We might eventually hit a point where there simply isn't anything left worth buying... 😲

Edit: It seems I'm not the only one with this specific anxiety weighing on my mind:
''The world is entering circumstances unlike anything we've ever seen before, largely because Homo sapiens has developed weapons capable of wiping out 50 billion people.''

Full article: http://www.nytimes.com/news/world/us/758214.html
Amy Sanchez2 Amy Sanchez2 Member
10 messages
joined Jun 2012
#648 ·
Look, I’ve been lurking in this thread for quite a while now, so I figured it was finally time to weigh in:

Honestly, I think this whole gold hysteria is being fueled by both sides—you’ve got the extreme gold bugs on one end and the anti-gold crowd on the other, just driving the madness.
Let’s start with the bears for a second: from the jump, they completely ignored the fundamentals and just laughed at anyone trying to call a bull market since 2000. But look at the facts—we were seeing the end of a 20-year bear market which led to shorter research cycles and basically caused production stagnation over the last few years. On top of that, you have massive surges in demand from two huge markets, China and India, combined with central banks selling off less gold than before. It was practically inevitable that gold would go up.

Most mainstream commentators act like gold is in some massive bubble, but if you actually asked them, they’d probably say gold is only worth maybe $300-$400. Here’s the thing: the cost for companies per ounce is around $650 for the big players like Newmont and others, and it hits closer to $800 for the smaller outfits once you factor in profit margins and everything else. There is no way gold stays below $1200 without being a complete steal. If you adjusted gold prices to track US inflation, we’d be looking at $400-$500, which is way, way below the actual cost of digging it out of the ground!!
The bottom line is you have to admit that gold has been a solid investment, and if you didn't get in when you had the chance, well, you can just sit there and cry about it. That's all there is to it.

Then you have the gold bug crowd: it’s a real mixed bag here, ranging from legitimate price forecasters to people lost in hyperinflationary delusions. For example, you have guys like Jim Sinclair saying, "Oh, gold is hitting $1800 this week!" then two days later the price drops $40 and suddenly it's all "market manipulation!" If they know it's being manipulated, why bother making predictions in the first place? It makes zero sense. 🤷 The gold market behaves totally irrationally, much like some of the "experts" we saw back after 2008 when everyone was freaking out about hyperinflation threats following the massive money printing in the US.
Even though these experts should know that the Federal Reserve can expand its balance sheet indefinitely without actually triggering hyperinflation. We see gold rising today because people fear the Fed might pivot back to QE, but honestly, what does that matter? Whatever inflation that causes won't actually show up for years.
In general, the price of gold doesn't actually have that much to do with the US; the US isn't even the largest producer or the biggest market.

A huge chunk of this depends on China and India (which account for about 50% of investment gold), and I think Shadow missed the mark a little bit when he claimed gold isn't money. In India, they view it as money and a hedge against inflation—it doesn't matter if that's "irrational" to Westerners; they believe it, so they buy it. China and Russia are ramping up their gold reserves too, but I don't think it's just a move to escape
the dollar as the global reserve currency; they're doing it because they simply want to spite Americans. You could also see gold prices driven up by mining taxes, which are trending upward, or civil unrest and nationalization in the remote areas where the gold is actually pulled from the earth.

Regarding manipulation, if you look strictly at history, you could conclude that the elites don't particularly care for gold. But interestingly enough, Paul Volcker mentioned in his memoirs that he actually regretted not keeping gold prices under tighter control during the 80s.
Because of this manipulation, prices can actually head UP, because the cartel doesn't want people buying physical gold at low prices and crashing the paper market—at least, that's what the pros say.

As for the gold standard, I personally think it would be fascinating if the market just picked the best form of money to effectively abolish legal tender, capital gains taxes on gold sales, and deposit guarantees, just to see what happens. And please, Shadow, give us a more detailed breakdown of why the gold standard wouldn't work.

I find it interesting how J. Rickards suggests that, in the style of Bernanke, the goal is slow gold growth because that implies a weakening dollar. The Federal Reserve wants a cheap dollar, which really just means there's still plenty of room to make money on gold. 😉
ironstag8 ironstag8 Active Member
105 messages
joined Apr 2019
#649 ·
I’d like to offer a response to Shadow regarding the decline of the American standard of living since the demonetization of silver back in 1964. Even though our main focus here is gold, allow me to use the history of silver as a lens to illustrate this broader point.
To set the stage, President Johnson made a rather "eloquent" decision—and followed it up with an equally eloquent statement:
If anybody has any idea of hoarding our silver coins, let me say this. Treasury has a lot of silver on hand, and it can be, and it will be used to keep the price of silver in line with its value in our present silver coin. There will be no profit in holding them out of circulation for the value of their silver content

He essentially believed that a silver dollar and a fiat dollar were interchangeable, assuming the government could simply maintain that parity as long as those old silver coins remained in circulation.
Honestly, looking back, you have to wonder who was foolish enough to buy into that nonsense.
image'] [/URL] image
So, if we look at the landscape in 1964—average home prices, cars, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, postage stamps, tuition for a decent university, natural birth costs, average wages, a gallon of milk, a gallon of gas—we can see the trajectory.
Below are the figures from 2012. I've included both the raw increase and the percentage. You'll notice that while wages grew by 766%, almost everything else—except perhaps milk—skyrocketed far beyond that.
It’s particularly striking to observe the surge in college tuition. A student in '64 paid a fraction of what people pay today, yet they walked into much better-paying careers. Today, students are crushed under mountains of debt, forced to pay exorbitant fees—artificially inflated by universities, driven by a mindset similar to that of bankers or the intellectual elite—only to end up in lower-paying roles (assuming they even find work).

Let’s follow the thread through the prism of silver. President Johnson claimed there was no point in collecting silver coins because they would retain their value. First, let's compare how many ounces of silver a dollar bought in '64 versus how much it buys today. If the sheer absurdity of Johnson’s logic—and the logic of anyone distancing themselves from real money in favor of paper—isn't obvious from these numbers, then I don't know what else to say. We also see that tuition has outpaced nearly everything else. Some might argue this doesn't impact the standard of living, but 😵that's a stretch. Just as a side note: in the '50s, a single income was often enough to support a large family; nowadays, even two incomes frequently fall short.

Now, let's look at the outcome for those gambling on paper versus those holding real money.
image'] [/URL] image
Suppose someone decided in 1964 to set aside $10,000—either in paper currency or in silver (which would have been about 7,150 ounces).
If the picture isn't clear: the paper lost 95% of its value. Let me break that down further. Inflation and the decoupling from gold and silver lead directly to a drop in the standard of living and purchasing power. Wage growth simply cannot keep pace with the rising cost of everything else.
Keep in mind, these figures are based on official inflation statistics. And if you want to know how truthful those numbers really are, just look at how they conveniently exclude the massive spikes in energy and food costs. If we used actual, real-world inflation metrics, the result for those holding paper would be even more catastrophic.
The question for Johnson and his contemporaries remains: was it actually worth holding onto those silver dollars from '64, or should they have just stuck with the paper dollar?
quiettrucker12 quiettrucker12 Regular
375 messages
joined Sep 2004
#650 ·
Even more critical now—take a look at the weekly charts:

Weekly Gold:

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40962975672

Weekly Equities:

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40962975672

Weekly USD:

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p60701082548

Weekly PM Miners:
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20827449102

Weekly Commodities:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CRB&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95806748213

So everything else is cratering while gold is absolutely ripping. On the daily view, the Federal Reserve saw a slight dip, but that was just the spark.
Patrick Moore3 Patrick Moore3 Active Member
93 messages
joined Jun 2009
#651 ·
ironstag8 said:I’d like to offer a response to Shadow regarding the decline of the American standard of living since the demonetization of silver back in 1964. Even though our main focus here is gold, allow me to use the history of silver as a lens to illustrate this broader point.
To set the stage, President Johnson made a rather "eloquent" decision—and followed it up with an equally eloquent statement:
If anybody has any idea of hoarding our silver coins, let me say this. Treasury has a lot of silver on hand, and it can be, and it will be used to keep the price of silver in line with its value in our present silver coin. There will be no profit in holding them out of circulation for the value of their silver content

He essentially believed that a silver dollar and a fiat dollar were interchangeable, assuming the government could simply maintain that parity as long as those old silver coins remained in circulation.
Honestly, looking back, you have to wonder who was foolish enough to buy into that nonsense.
image'] [/URL] image
So, if we look at the landscape in 1964—average home prices, cars, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, postage stamps, tuition for a decent university, natural birth costs, average wages, a gallon of milk, a gallon of gas—we can see the trajectory.
Below are the figures from 2012. I've included both the raw increase and the percentage. You'll notice that while wages grew by 766%, almost everything else—except perhaps milk—skyrocketed far beyond that.
It’s particularly striking to observe the surge in college tuition. A student in '64 paid a fraction of what people pay today, yet they walked into much better-paying careers. Today, students are crushed under mountains of debt, forced to pay exorbitant fees—artificially inflated by universities, driven by a mindset similar to that of bankers or the intellectual elite—only to end up in lower-paying roles (assuming they even find work).

Let’s follow the thread through the prism of silver. President Johnson claimed there was no point in collecting silver coins because they would retain their value. First, let's compare how many ounces of silver a dollar bought in '64 versus how much it buys today. If the sheer absurdity of Johnson’s logic—and the logic of anyone distancing themselves from real money in favor of paper—isn't obvious from these numbers, then I don't know what else to say. We also see that tuition has outpaced nearly everything else. Some might argue this doesn't impact the standard of living, but 😵that's a stretch. Just as a side note: in the '50s, a single income was often enough to support a large family; nowadays, even two incomes frequently fall short.

Now, let's look at the outcome for those gambling on paper versus those holding real money.
image'] [/URL] image
Suppose someone decided in 1964 to set aside $10,000—either in paper currency or in silver (which would have been about 7,150 ounces).
If the picture isn't clear: the paper lost 95% of its value. Let me break that down further. Inflation and the decoupling from gold and silver lead directly to a drop in the standard of living and purchasing power. Wage growth simply cannot keep pace with the rising cost of everything else.
Keep in mind, these figures are based on official inflation statistics. And if you want to know how truthful those numbers really are, just look at how they conveniently exclude the massive spikes in energy and food costs. If we used actual, real-world inflation metrics, the result for those holding paper would be even more catastrophic.
The question for Johnson and his contemporaries remains: was it actually worth holding onto those silver dollars from '64, or should they have just stuck with the paper dollar?

ironstag8, you're straight up ignoring a massive factor here—the sheer jump in standards from 1964 to 2012...
Look, say you buy the cheapest base-model Ford today, zero bells or whistles, weakest engine possible... that car is still gonna blow an average ride from 1964 out of the water, let alone compete with the luxury models back then...

What you're actually looking for is this: take 20 average salaries from 1964, what it took to buy an typical car back then... and expect that same amount of money (your purchasing power) to buy a typical car in 2012. It just isn't happening... 🙂
You'd want all the upgrades, right? A much better, more reliable engine, better bodywork, safety features, comfort, a warranty... all because you think having the purchasing power makes it equal? 😁
Anthony Evans78 Anthony Evans78 Regular
371 messages
joined Feb 2019
#652 ·
Look, Patrick Moore3, you’re conflating general living standards with technological progress.
And that point you just made: "What you actually want is to take, say, 20 average salaries from 1964—enough to buy a decent car back then—and have that same amount of money (your Prime Minister's math) be enough to buy an average car in 2012."
That is what a drop in purchasing power looks like.🙂
ironstag8 ironstag8 Active Member
105 messages
joined Apr 2019
#653 ·
Patrick Moore3 said:ironstag8, you're straight up ignoring a massive factor here—the sheer jump in standards from 1964 to 2012...
Look, say you buy the cheapest base-model Ford today, zero bells or whistles, weakest engine possible... that car is still gonna blow an average ride from 1964 out of the water, let alone compete with the luxury models back then...

What you're actually looking for is this: take 20 average salaries from 1964, what it took to buy an typical car back then... and expect that same amount of money (your purchasing power) to buy a typical car in 2012. It just isn't happening... 🙂
You'd want all the upgrades, right? A much better, more reliable engine, better bodywork, safety features, comfort, a warranty... all because you think having the purchasing power makes it equal? 😁

Let's say you have a point regarding certain aspects of cars (though, honestly, those vintage bodies in Miami and Cuba seem pretty sturdy considering they're from the 40s and 50s). Just look at refrigerators or even vacuum cleaners; things used to last 20 or 30 years, whereas nowadays, they're practically designed to last only as long as the warranty expires.
I don't want this to spiral into a complete tangent, but please don't try to inject your desire for consumerism and living beyond one's means into this debate. That exact impulse—wanting more than what is sustainable—is precisely what drives inflation and eventual ruin.
Sure, you could argue that milk is higher quality now, or that groceries are better. I’d argue the opposite—that food quality has actually dipped. And are houses being built with space-age materials these days? Not really.

Go ahead and comment on the second photo since there aren't any cars in it. Give it a shot, you skeptic.
ironstag8 ironstag8 Active Member
105 messages
joined Apr 2019
#654 ·
Anthony Evans78 said:Look, Patrick Moore3, you’re conflating general living standards with technological progress.
And that point you just made: "What you actually want is to take, say, 20 average salaries from 1964—enough to buy a decent car back then—and have that same amount of money (your Prime Minister's math) be enough to buy an average car in 2012."
That is what a drop in purchasing power looks like.🙂

Nice one, Silver. At first glance, I didn't realize you were essentially arguing against yourself. It seems technological advancement hasn't been matched by a corresponding jump in wages that would actually reflect an improved quality of life. So, we have progress everywhere—except, apparently, when it comes to our actual take-home pay.
neondriver5 neondriver5 Active Member
116 messages
joined May 2017
#655 ·
I just want to take a moment to look at this incredible wave of consumerism, clutter, and hyper-globalization 😬 that defines everything we touch and use daily. Sure, I get it—tech has become incredibly cheap, both in raw dollars and as a percentage of our income, but it’s honestly absurd that it’s now considered "normal" for a refrigerator, a washing machine, or a TV to give up the ghost after just five or seven years. Even though I'm relatively young, I find that unacceptable. I still remember the heavy-duty appliances we grew up with back in the day; those things were built to last twenty-five years, and even then, they usually died from rust rather than some mechanical failure.
It’s wild to think that our old domestic factories used to outproduce everyone—the Chinese, the Japanese, and even the Americans combined.

Case in point: my microwave kicked the bucket once while under its two-year warranty, and then immediately died again right after the coverage expired. When I took it to an authorized service center to ask what could be done, the guy basically told me to just toss it in the trash.
Give me a break. I don't exactly have fifty bucks lying around on the sidewalk.
neondriver5 neondriver5 Active Member
116 messages
joined May 2017
#656 ·
I just want to take a moment to reflect on this incredible era of consumerism, mediocrity, and relentless globalization 😬 when you look at the gadgets and appliances we rely on every single day. I realize they’ve become much cheaper—both in raw dollars and as a percentage of our income—but it’s honestly absurd that it’s now considered normal for a refrigerator, a washing machine, or a TV to only last five to seven years. Even though I’m relatively young, I find that unacceptable because I still remember the heavy-duty stuff we used to have from brands like GE or Whirlpool. Those machines were built to last twenty-five years, and if they finally gave out, it was usually due to sheer wear and tear, not some faulty internal mechanics.
It’s truly mind-blowing how those old American factories outperformed everyone—the Chinese, the Japanese, and even modern US manufacturers combined.

My microwave died once while it was still under its two-year warranty, and then immediately failed again right after the coverage expired. When I asked the technician at the authorized service center what could be done, he basically told me to just toss it in the trash.
Give me a break; I don't just find fifty bucks lying around on the sidewalk.
A Samsung home theater system—died during the warranty period, luckily it's working fine for now.
Don't even get me started on smartphones.
A laptop fried right after the warranty lapsed; I lost about $900 because the motherboard was shot, and the repair cost was "not worth it." 🙂
A two-year-old Rheem water heater started leaking gas; repair was a massive headache.

Seriously, what are you guys making these things out of? Cardboard?
Patrick Moore3 Patrick Moore3 Active Member
93 messages
joined Jun 2009
#657 ·
ironstag8 said:Let's say you have a point regarding certain aspects of cars (though, honestly, those vintage bodies in Miami and Cuba seem pretty sturdy considering they're from the 40s and 50s). Just look at refrigerators or even vacuum cleaners; things used to last 20 or 30 years, whereas nowadays, they're practically designed to last only as long as the warranty expires.
I don't want this to spiral into a complete tangent, but please don't try to inject your desire for consumerism and living beyond one's means into this debate. That exact impulse—wanting more than what is sustainable—is precisely what drives inflation and eventual ruin.
Sure, you could argue that milk is higher quality now, or that groceries are better. I’d argue the opposite—that food quality has actually dipped. And are houses being built with space-age materials these days? Not really.

Go ahead and comment on the second photo since there aren't any cars in it. Give it a shot, you skeptic.

Sure, we can talk without the car. Take milk... back when we used to get milk in bags, every single time it was some sour mess with a 2-3 day shelf life without being tested for a million diseases. We don't have those problems today... 😉

You can say anything about food quality. Organic farming costs money, and clearly people aren't willing to pay for it, so they buy cheap, low-quality junk... It wouldn't have been a loss if people actually bought his produce for $3.25 and paid $67 for a pound of Gouda. On the flip side, the biggest input for food production and everything else is oil, which used to be $3 and now it's nearly $100... and that, along with other energy costs, is the main reason for the price hikes we deal with every day.

Modern washing machines actually cost way less than before—back 20 or 30 years ago, you had to work much harder than the average 10 days (price of a washer divided by average salary) just to afford one... But then again, if you want quality, you have to be ready to pay for it, and obviously (be sure you aren't getting sold junk meant for emerging markets), you get all the bells and whistles: tons of programs, less ruined clothes, timers, lower electricity and water usage... damn, all that stuff costs money!

You mentioned childbirth costs earlier too... What was the infant mortality rate in 1964 versus today? Dammit, that costs money too... A woman could give birth at home for nothing with huge risks, like it used to be. We could do that with everything else, but we'd be drifting too far into off-topic territory...

ironstag8 said:Nice one, Silver. At first glance, I didn't realize you were essentially arguing against yourself. It seems technological advancement hasn't been matched by a corresponding jump in wages that would actually reflect an improved quality of life. So, we have progress everywhere—except, apparently, when it comes to our actual take-home pay.

Aha, so technological progress and rising standards just happen for free? Like they just show up out of nowhere? You think you'll get that for nothing just by keeping the Quincy under your bed? How could you think 😁
If you think you can earn money just by holding onto something—in this case, the Quincy—without putting in extra work, then you're a speculator just like anyone investing in real estate, stocks, funds, savings, or forex... Don't kid yourself thinking you just want to preserve the value of your labor, because you want more than that.😉
ironstag8 ironstag8 Active Member
105 messages
joined Apr 2019
#658 ·
Patrick Moore3 said:Sure, we can talk without the car. Take milk... back when we used to get milk in bags, every single time it was some sour mess with a 2-3 day shelf life without being tested for a million diseases. We don't have those problems today... 😉

You can say anything about food quality. Organic farming costs money, and clearly people aren't willing to pay for it, so they buy cheap, low-quality junk... It wouldn't have been a loss if people actually bought his produce for $3.25 and paid $67 for a pound of Gouda. On the flip side, the biggest input for food production and everything else is oil, which used to be $3 and now it's nearly $100... and that, along with other energy costs, is the main reason for the price hikes we deal with every day.

Modern washing machines actually cost way less than before—back 20 or 30 years ago, you had to work much harder than the average 10 days (price of a washer divided by average salary) just to afford one... But then again, if you want quality, you have to be ready to pay for it, and obviously (be sure you aren't getting sold junk meant for emerging markets), you get all the bells and whistles: tons of programs, less ruined clothes, timers, lower electricity and water usage... damn, all that stuff costs money!

You mentioned childbirth costs earlier too... What was the infant mortality rate in 1964 versus today? Dammit, that costs money too... A woman could give birth at home for nothing with huge risks, like it used to be. We could do that with everything else, but we'd be drifting too far into off-topic territory...

Aha, so technological progress and rising standards just happen for free? Like they just show up out of nowhere? You think you'll get that for nothing just by keeping the Quincy under your bed? How could you think 😁
If you think you can earn money just by holding onto something—in this case, the Quincy—without putting in extra work, then you're a speculator just like anyone investing in real estate, stocks, funds, savings, or forex... Don't kid yourself thinking you just want to preserve the value of your labor, because you want more than that.😉

No problems with food? 😵
Oil is hitting $100 because the dollar is losing its value.
By your logic, we're headed for a long-term decline in living standards since wages can't keep pace with progress. If that's the case, who is all this progress actually for? 🤷 Isn't there something fundamentally broken in a world like that (besides the financial system)?

Where did that bolded part come from? And how do you think I earned enough to buy my Quincy? By speculating and sitting on the couch? I put in work to afford the Quincy. Investing hard-earned labor into paper that constantly loses value is a risky gamble—one that's only going to get even more obvious in the near future.
Anthony Evans78 Anthony Evans78 Regular
371 messages
joined Feb 2019
#659 ·
Mary, you clearly don't see the distinction between actual tech progress and simple inflation 🙂
Mortality rates were way higher back during, say, the Industrial Revolution, even when the world was basically on the gold standard 🙂
And yet, we saw massive technological leaps then too, while prices stayed steady for decades
Of course, if San Francisco actually bothered to look at the photos you posted, they'd realize you're actually onto something... 🙂
Patrick Moore3 Patrick Moore3 Active Member
93 messages
joined Jun 2009
#660 ·
ironstag8 said:No problems with food? 😵
Oil is hitting $100 because the dollar is losing its value.
By your logic, we're headed for a long-term decline in living standards since wages can't keep pace with progress. If that's the case, who is all this progress actually for? 🤷 Isn't there something fundamentally broken in a world like that (besides the financial system)?

Where did that bolded part come from? And how do you think I earned enough to buy my Quincy? By speculating and sitting on the couch? I put in work to afford the Quincy. Investing hard-earned labor into paper that constantly loses value is a risky gamble—one that's only going to get even more obvious in the near future.

Oh, really? 😁 What if oil is at $100 because production has been flat for years while demand just keeps climbing? What happens if they suddenly ramp up supply today... does the dollar get stronger or does oil lose value? 🙂

ironstag8 said:No problems with food? 😵
Oil is hitting $100 because the dollar is losing its value.
By your logic, we're headed for a long-term decline in living standards since wages can't keep pace with progress. If that's the case, who is all this progress actually for? 🤷 Isn't there something fundamentally broken in a world like that (besides the financial system)?

Where did that bolded part come from? And how do you think I earned enough to buy my Quincy? By speculating and sitting on the couch? I put in work to afford the Quincy. Investing hard-earned labor into paper that constantly loses value is a risky gamble—one that's only going to get even more obvious in the near future.

Look at it this way. You start working in 1995 in an American economy ranked somewhere around 80th in development... 30 years later, the US somehow climbs to 20th in the world... and you expect your average wage from 1995 to hold the exact same weight as an average wage in 2025 just because you parked it in the PM? I don't see any "preserving value" there—just massive inflation of value. If the PM were truly just preserving the value of your labor, then for that PM, you'd only get exactly what an average worker in a country with the same development as the US in 1995 would earn today... so you'd be broke.
Or, if the US today is basically like some random Swiss economy back in 1964 😍, then it's logical to expect we live at their 1964 standard with those old wages... and the Swiss guy who saved his pay in 1964 and now finds it's worth only what an American makes today... he's screwed. 😍

On the flip side, given the rising demand for gold and silver—one for speculation and the other for industrial use—it makes sense that value increases for these metals due to limited supply and high demand. So expecting even more value in the future is logical. But once the speculative bubble pops and things shift elsewhere, like happened in the 80s and lasted through the 90s, expect a drop in value for one simple reason: lower demand. 😍

Look, nothing in this world actually holds its value forever. There's no such thing. It's all just assets—some go up, some go down. It really just comes down to how good you are at jumping from one to the next. You can make a killing, or you can get burned. 😉

...and if you're looking for something where you can actually trust that your investment won't tank? Focus on the spiritual side of things. 🙂

Man, I'm way too high on this forum... and my paper is due on the 11th. 😵

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