blueranger2 said:Given how much ground those Northern League separatists have been gaining lately, do you guys think a breakup of the Italian Republic is actually on the cards in the next 50 years or so? I saw a report where even a Berlusconi-esque figure's wife claimed that Italy was never truly a unified nation to begin with—which is a bit of a stretch, if you ask me—and suggested it hasn't quite matured enough to stay that way.👎
I don't see Italy splitting up anytime in the next 50 years.
Here's why:
1.) For starters, there just isn't a critical mass of people actually backing separatism.
2.) Even the Northern League politicians throwing around threats about breaking away from the Po Valley aren't actual separatists; they're just pushing for devolution—basically moving power from the federal level down to the states, making them
federalists instead.
3.) All that separatist talk from the Northern League is really just performative bullshit, which is pretty typical for the political culture over there.
To put some numbers behind this:
In the recent parliamentary elections, the Northern League pulled
27.1% of the vote in Veneto, compared to
29.3% back in 1996.
Over in Lombardy, the Northern League grabbed
21.6% of the vote, whereas they had
25.5% in '96.
They didn't even crack 20% in any other region, so the idea of Italy collapsing is nothing but a pipe dream—especially since these last elections were a total shake-up of the political landscape; the communists have basically vanished, and the number of parliamentary groups has plummeted from 32 down to just 5.