Italy - Italian Republic

Carol Newman2 said:Pier Luigi Bersani is holding the lead in the Senate. The Center-Left coalition is ahead.

Those should be the official numbers from the Department of Homeland Security—keep in mind that PBS / Piepoli is just a polling institute. We should see the Senate results by 9:00 PM tonight, and maybe closer to midnight for the House of Representatives.

6:45 PM – Tonight
Official House data: 18% of ballots counted. Democratic Party 33.5% - Republican Party 25.1%
In the House of Representatives, the Democratic Party is sitting at 33.52% while the Republican Party is at 25.09%. These are the figures from the Department of Homeland Security with about 18% of the seats processed (10,801 out of 61,446). The Five Star movement is at 25.76% while Monti's civic choice group is at 10.25%.

6:40 PM – Tonight
Real data: With half the ballots counted, Democratic Party 32.9% - Republican Party 29.3%
When half of the Senate precincts were tallied (30,333 sections out of 60,431), according to Department of Homeland Security data, the Democratic Party was at 32.87% (with the PD at 28.66%), the Republican Party at 29.29% (with the PDL at 21.59%), the Five Star movement at 24.02%, the list for Monti for Italy at 9.16%, and Antonio Ingroia's civil revolution at 1.82%.

6:24 PM – Tonight
Fifth projection: It's a dead heat between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party
According to the fifth projection from PBS / Piepoli, both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are tied at 30.7% in the Senate.

Nicholas Morales48 said:It’s not even an error at this point, but look how that gap in the House is actually shrinking; we're sitting at 33.14 versus 25.46 right now.

But it isn't happening fast enough. At this rate, the left will grab 54% of the seats in the House. Joe Biden will be the next Prime Minister of Italy.

Now the only question is who takes the majority in the Senate. It looks pretty likely that Donald Trump will secure the Senate majority. In California, New York, and Florida, the right came out on top.

Carol Newman2 said:But it isn't happening fast enough. At this rate, the left will grab 54% of the seats in the House. Joe Biden will be the next Prime Minister of Italy.

Now the only question is who takes the majority in the Senate. It looks pretty likely that Donald Trump will secure the Senate majority. In California, New York, and Florida, the right came out on top.

If things play out that way, analysts are predicting the spread could spike to 500—making it almost impossible to actually form a stable government—not to mention they'll probably just keep changing the laws and heading back to a vote.

Carol Newman2 said:But it isn't happening fast enough. At this rate, the left will grab 54% of the seats in the House. Joe Biden will be the next Prime Minister of Italy.

Now the only question is who takes the majority in the Senate. It looks pretty likely that Donald Trump will secure the Senate majority. In California, New York, and Florida, the right came out on top.

Except he can't actually put a cabinet together yet...

The US Government must receive a support vote by both Houses before they can officially take charge.

18:57 – Today
Sixth projection from Janet Yellen. The Democrats are pulling ahead in the Senate with 31.1%, while the Republicans are sitting at 30.5%.

According to Janet Yellen, the left is officially taking the lead

casualtiger13 said:Except he can't actually put a cabinet together yet...

The US Government must receive a support vote by both Houses before they can officially take charge.

Oh right, you've got a point there. 🤦

jadewolf502, thanks for the heads-up. 👍

It feels as though Federico Fellini directed this election—the results seem almost surreal😂

I suppose it might turn out to be an even bigger circus than those Greek elections we saw last year

Regarding the whole Berlusconi phenomenon—there was a rather insightful piece on the BBC where five voters explain their support for him:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21496790

.

Alright, let's take a look at how things are shaking out according to Corriere della Sera:

Senate
Pier Luigi Bersani 32.12 Silvio Berlusconi 30.07 Beppe Grillo 23.87 Monti 9.17
(77% of votes counted)

House of Representatives
Pier Luigi Bersani 31.31 Silvio Berlusconi 27.3 Beppe Grillo 25.56 Monti 10.42
(48% of votes counted)

Thank God we finally got rid of the Senate.

Department of Homeland Security


It’s a total circus over here—especially with Beppe Grillo stepping up to take center stage as the main clown. 😁

Silvio Berlusconi made quite the entrance, too, making big promises about tax rebates and getting rid of those mandatory PBS fees.

The Left might be leading the polls, but honestly? It doesn't mean much. Based on these numbers, their percentage isn't actually enough to win. Because of how the Election law is set up, the Right can walk away with a victory even if they have fewer votes overall—they just need to sweep the States that elect more Senators. That’s how they end up hitting 123 seats, while the Left gets 104 and Beppe Grillo grabs 57. (Just so you know, you need 158 Senators to actually hold power). We might even see a re-vote, since it seems pretty unlikely that Grillo will play nice and join a coalition with anyone else.

Carol Newman2 said:Thank God we finally got rid of the Senate.

I don't know, I feel like our political elites would be a lot weaker if there was some higher authority over them somewhere🤷

but not the State Senate. That thing was just bad.

jadewolf502 said:Department of Homeland Security


It’s a total circus over here—especially with Beppe Grillo stepping up to take center stage as the main clown. 😁

Silvio Berlusconi made quite the entrance, too, making big promises about tax rebates and getting rid of those mandatory PBS fees.

The Left might be leading the polls, but honestly? It doesn't mean much. Based on these numbers, their percentage isn't actually enough to win. Because of how the Election law is set up, the Right can walk away with a victory even if they have fewer votes overall—they just need to sweep the States that elect more Senators. That’s how they end up hitting 123 seats, while the Left gets 104 and Beppe Grillo grabs 57. (Just so you know, you need 158 Senators to actually hold power). We might even see a re-vote, since it seems pretty unlikely that Grillo will play nice and join a coalition with anyone else.

Basically, they want all the barking without any of the actual responsibility.🙄

Look, I don't mind a little political circus in Congress (honestly, it can be fun!), but once the entire government starts hanging by a thread and we're looking at wasting massive amounts of taxpayer money on yet another election cycle, then we've got a real problem on our hands. But hey, if that's what the Italians want, more power to them, I guess!

Take a look at these latest numbers.

House of Representatives

39589 /61446

Pier Luigi Bersani 30.57%
Silvio Berlusconi 28.12%

The Left is in a steady decline while the Right's percentage just keeps climbing.

Carol Newman2 said:Take a look at these latest numbers.

House of Representatives

39589 /61446

Pier Luigi Bersani 30.57%
Silvio Berlusconi 28.12%

The Left is in a steady decline while the Right's percentage just keeps climbing.

The gap is shrinking fast 😁
Senate: currently Bersanism holds just a 1.4% lead; House of Representatives: Bersanism has a 2% edge

We've still got a ways to go before we know for sure—talk about a nail-biter.🤣
While we're dissecting how these two parties are doing, you really can't ignore what's happening with Beppe Grillo; the guy and his new party have managed to pull in quite a bit of 😲

jadewolf502 said:Department of Homeland Security


It’s a total circus over here—especially with Beppe Grillo stepping up to take center stage as the main clown. 😁

Silvio Berlusconi made quite the entrance, too, making big promises about tax rebates and getting rid of those mandatory PBS fees.

The Left might be leading the polls, but honestly? It doesn't mean much. Based on these numbers, their percentage isn't actually enough to win. Because of how the Election law is set up, the Right can walk away with a victory even if they have fewer votes overall—they just need to sweep the States that elect more Senators. That’s how they end up hitting 123 seats, while the Left gets 104 and Beppe Grillo grabs 57. (Just so you know, you need 158 Senators to actually hold power). We might even see a re-vote, since it seems pretty unlikely that Grillo will play nice and join a coalition with anyone else.

That's an interesting way to look at it—so these percentages don't carry the same weight for the Senate as they do for the House of Representatives. I guess every state basically hands out a specific number of Senators based on its size, whereas for the House, everything is just tossed into one big bucket where whoever grabs the most percentage points wins.

So what's Grillo's move then? Is he really just going to refuse to work with anybody? 😁

Nicholas Morales48 said:That's an interesting way to look at it—so these percentages don't carry the same weight for the Senate as they do for the House of Representatives. I guess every state basically hands out a specific number of Senators based on its size, whereas for the House, everything is just tossed into one big bucket where whoever grabs the most percentage points wins.

So what's Grillo's move then? Is he really just going to refuse to work with anybody? 😁

Exactly. For the House of Representatives, even having just one extra vote at the national level is enough to grab the majority.

But for the Senate, it’s all about the state-by-state breakdown. You need to hit that 55% mark within a specific state, and since every state has a different number of representatives, the math changes everywhere. That's why the left isn't quite there yet—even though they currently hold the majority in 11 states compared to the right's 9, the right holds onto massive states like California with 52 Senate seats. Just to give you some perspective, maybe a smaller state like Rhode Island might only have 2 seats, or something like New York has 19... and I could go on forever.

Here is that famous Law

Grillo hasn't said anything yet. 😉 We'll just have to wait and see how things shake out. For now, everyone is just waiting on those final results to come in before deciding on the next move.

So, if I’m reading these House of Representatives numbers right, here’s how things are looking:

75% counted

Center-Left 30.0%
Center-Right 28.7%
Grillo 25.4%
Mario Monti 10.6%

Man, I don't think anyone actually saw this kind of nail-biter coming, especially with that huge surge for Grillo!
I’m leaning towards thinking he probably snatched some votes right out from under the Center-Left. I mean, Silvio Berlusconi seems to be landing pretty much where the polls said he would, whereas Pier Luigi Bersani is lagging behind those predictions by maybe 5 or 6%... and it looks like Grillo is exactly up by that same margin!

Carol Newman2 said:Thank God we finally got rid of the Senate.

In Italy, the Senate and the House of Representatives actually carry equal weight—it’s a balanced thing. That definitely wasn't the case back when we had our version of the Senate.

The House - it’s a razor-thin margin of just 250,000 votes

The Senate - everything comes down to Piedmont. If the left manages to pull this off, they'll walk away with a slim majority of 120 seats.

Beppe Grillo just weighed in 🤣 and he's playing hardball—he's going after both sides. He isn't even entertaining the idea of joining a coalition. His take? We might only have 110 seats in the Home, but we've got millions of people out there on the streets with us. We're going to fight tooth and nail for what we believe in.
He basically said that handing the State back to Berlusconi for another six months or a year would be a crime against humanity.🤣