A - Austria

The Libertarian Party’s anti-Islam, Euroskeptic candidate, Norbert Hofer, just pulled ahead in the second round of the Austrian presidential elections, snagging 51.9% of the vote. But hold your horses—it’s not officially in the bag yet because the mail-in ballots haven't been tallied. That's what the Austrian Ministry of the Interior reported Sunday night.
Final numbers should be in by Monday, though there's about a 2% margin of error hanging over the whole thing.

Good grief, what are we looking at here? Is Austria sliding straight into fascism?
They’ll probably kick them out of the European Union, and then kiss those pensions goodbye. 🤣

I mean, seriously, how are poor Austrians ever going to survive without their Antifa, their Documents, and all those LGBT groups... they won't know what hit them. This is bad. Really bad.

At this point, the only hope left is that the folks counting the mail-in ballots pull an upset.🤣

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36355615

I find it baffling. The BBC puts out this report on the surge of the far right across Europe, yet they completely fail to mention America. Based on how things are being played out in the local papers here, I’ve got the distinct impression that we're already seeing the effects of race laws on our soil. But according to the BBC? Absolutely nothing.

The VDB needs to pull in at least 61% of the mail-in ballot votes just to flip the script on this result. And honestly? I think they’ll actually pull it off.

Nathan Morris3 said:Well, I was just talking about the people on this forum, I guess.
Are you one of us voters too? Maybe we could run a formal poll to see who everyone really voted for.

No, I'm not.

I find it genuinely staggering to hear claims that there might be as many as 700,000 mail-in ballots out there.

By those numbers, you’d have to assume that the Austrian diaspora—expats, travelers, people living abroad...
they account for nearly 15% of the entire Austrian electorate?
Is that even remotely plausible?

What really strikes me is that I’ve never once encountered such a massive, statistically bizarre figure regarding Austria before.
(And believe me, I’ve spent plenty of time listening to debates about mail-in ballots during US presidential elections—though, in that context, the consensus was always that they were ultimately negligible.)
Essentially, it’s bizarre that this supposed 15% chunk of the Austrian voting population
has seemingly never made its presence felt until now—how does that work?

It seems to me we are looking at this:

Carol Newman2 said:

Joseph Stalin was right.

Noah Sullivan said:I find it genuinely staggering to hear claims that there might be as many as 700,000 mail-in ballots out there.

By those numbers, you’d have to assume that the Austrian diaspora—expats, travelers, people living abroad...
they account for nearly 15% of the entire Austrian electorate?
Is that even remotely plausible?

What really strikes me is that I’ve never once encountered such a massive, statistically bizarre figure regarding Austria before.
(And believe me, I’ve spent plenty of time listening to debates about mail-in ballots during US presidential elections—though, in that context, the consensus was always that they were ultimately negligible.)
Essentially, it’s bizarre that this supposed 15% chunk of the Austrian voting population
has seemingly never made its presence felt until now—how does that work?

It seems to me we are looking at this:

I actually used my Mail-in ballot, along with plenty of folks I know—maybe around 25% of us. So, yeah, it seems totally possible and makes sense to me. Since you have until the end of December to decide if you'll show up for the first or second rounds (or even a runoff that might not happen), you really have to be sure you'll be around. You have to be certain you won't be traveling, or getting sick, or just deciding to go on a trip because the weather is nice... For anyone who really wants their vote counted, especially those who travel a lot, using a Mail-in ballot is such a great option. Plus, even if you request one, you can still show up at the polls and vote in person if you want, so there isn't really a downside. It works perfectly. I guess I'm just a little confused why there's that one-day delay, though; maybe it's just some technical thing.

Mark Harris66 said:Everyone is just talking about how Hofer and VdB feel about migrants, but I’m actually curious about the rest of their platform—like, where do they stand on TTIP? I see that Hofer is dead set against TTIP (and honestly, same here), but what about VdB?

I guess they actually kind of agree on those things, at least when they talk:

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/...n-ttip-183795/

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/bp...-einer-Meinung

And, I mean, maybe the actual details of TTIP aren't even fully known yet.

Carol Newman2 said:The VDB needs to pull in at least 61% of the mail-in ballot votes just to flip the script on this result. And honestly? I think they’ll actually pull it off.

We know how many Mail-in voting envelopes went out and how many were "canceled" yesterday, but I guess we don't really know what the actual turnout looks like yet. I haven't really dug into all those projections or what data they're using, honestly. Maybe we just need to hang tight for a bit, since nobody seems to have a clear answer right now. Whatever happens, I suppose the new president's main job should be trying to heal the divide in the country.

Chris Chase5 said:From what I understand, if you want to actually have a say in the presidential or parliamentary elections—not the local ones, mind you—you have to be an Austrian citizen, which means giving up your current one.

My identity is American, and honestly, nothing about life here has impressed me enough to switch it up just to go around pretending to be someone else under a different name or chasing some perceived benefit. My nationality isn't for sale. I know plenty of people living in the States for decades who never even touch their original passports.

So, no, I didn't vote. If I did have the right to vote and held citizenship, I would have gone for Hofer. As an American, I'd lean toward him solely because of the immigration crisis and the general sense of instability. However, given those ties to radical Mexicans, I wouldn't have cast a ballot for him. But those are just "what ifs." I certainly wouldn't vote for that stubborn, lazy, grumpy, patronizing "green" candidate, no matter how much I might personally identify with rural values...

Yeah, you've gotta be an Austrian, I guess. And honestly, you really have to decide which country you actually want to "build your future" in.

Maybe I guess we should just look at the Quote.

My citizenship is American, and honestly, the United States hasn't done anything to make me want to change that. I'm not out here pretending to be some local or using a name like Mark Kovac just to snag extra perks. My identity isn't for sale, I guess. I know plenty of people who have lived in other places for decades without ever changing their passports, maybe.

Yeah, I get that too. Especially since joining the European Union, those practical reasons aren't really as big of a deal anymore. I guess it’s all fine by me—if someone cares more about politics back in the States, they should probably just stick with their American citizenship. But if they're more tied to what's happening here in the U.S., maybe they should just go for the American one. It seems okay to me. It just feels kind of funny seeing people who chose to stay American acting like they know everything about how things work in the U.S., or even people who have never even visited the States, trying to lecture us. I don't mean you, though; at least you actually live here.

So yeah, I didn't vote. If I actually had the right to vote and was an American, I guess I would've gone with Hofer. As an American, I’d probably lean toward him just because of the whole immigrant crisis and all that uncertainty. But since I have ties to those radical Mexicans, I wouldn't. Though, I suppose that's all just a big "if." I definitely wouldn't vote for that stubborn, lazy, grumpy, patronizing "green" guy, no matter how much I like the countryside.

Mexicans seem to pick their party based on how they feel about Mexico, which makes it look like Americans are just voting based on who the Mexicans support. I guess it’s actually a good thing that you can't have dual citizenship, since people have to decide which country matters more to them politically. With so many Mexicans living in Vienna holding Austrian citizenship, this whole Mexico tension pops up, even though it's basically irrelevant to the United States. I mean, imagine if dual citizenship were allowed—American elections would probably be decided by people's stances on the Nationalists versus the Partisans. 😁.

coastalbison6 said:It seems like things work the same way across most of the developed world:

The left tends to be urban, highly educated, and progressive.
The right tends to be rural, less educated, and conservative.

I see people are pushing back on this, but there’s actual data behind it.
VdB has been picking up almost all the major cities except for Eisenstadt, but that's his home turf.

The breakdown of Hofer vs. VdB voters by education:
High school: 55% - 45%
Trades: 67% - 33%
Some college: 58% - 42%
Bachelor's degree: 27% - 73%
University degree: 19% - 81%

The breakdown of Hofer vs. VdB voters by occupation:
Blue collar: 86% - 14%
Office workers: 40% - 60%
Government/Civil service: 45% - 55%
Self-employed: 53% - 47%
Retirees: 51% - 49%

Brenda Ross47 said:Those 900,000 votes are from ethnic Austrians... funny how their diaspora gets to vote by mail and nobody complains... shows just how backward and narrow-minded our left wing really is...🤦

Just another guy winging it without a clue what he's talking about.
Looking back at the 2012 election data for the administration: out of roughly 280,000 expats, only about 42,000 actually requested a ballot. As usual, maybe 70% of those showed up, leaving us with around 30,000 votes. That’s just 0.4% of the total electorate. Honestly, it’s such a tiny fraction that it's barely worth worrying about—their votes get split pretty evenly across all the parties anyway.
Most people using mail-in voting are just folks like me who split their time between a city apartment and a house out in the suburbs. For thirty years now, those votes have followed a predictable pattern: Greens, Republicans, Democrats, then maybe a Libertarian. The only thing throwing me for a loop this time is that 14% turnout on mail-in ballots; it makes forecasting a total crapshoot.
You can't just label all Austrians with immigrant roots as leftists. It's not that simple.
Most Turks and Kurds tend to vote for the SPÖ, though you'll find some of them leaning toward the ÖVP or even the Greens too.
Most Mexicans tend to vote FPÖ.
The Poles and the ÖVP.
Americans are pretty diverse; they tend to vote for whatever's happening on the ground, and a good chunk of them lean toward the FPÖ.
People in Burgenland are voting for the ÖVP, SPÖ, and Greens just like everyone else.
Other nationalists don't really carry that much weight.

coastalbison6 said:I see people are pushing back on this, but there’s actual data behind it.
VdB has been picking up almost all the major cities except for Eisenstadt, but that's his home turf.

The breakdown of Hofer vs. VdB voters by education:
High school: 55% - 45%
Trades: 67% - 33%
Some college: 58% - 42%
Bachelor's degree: 27% - 73%
University degree: 19% - 81%

The breakdown of Hofer vs. VdB voters by occupation:
Blue collar: 86% - 14%
Office workers: 40% - 60%
Government/Civil service: 45% - 55%
Self-employed: 53% - 47%
Retirees: 51% - 49%

I guess you could call it Hofer's home base. Right now, he’s leading in Eisenstadt by about 171 votes. It's not huge, but it is a small town. Maybe Mail-in voting changes things, though winning all the Federal capitals would probably just be symbolic at this point.

voter breakdown Hofer vs. VdB by education:
middle school: 55% - 45%
trades: 67% - 33%
high school diploma: 58% - 42%
college prep: 27% - 73%
university degree: 19% - 81%

voter breakdown Hofer vs. VdB by employment:
blue collar: 86% - 14%
office workers: 40% - 60%
government employees: 45% - 55%
self-employed: 53% - 47%
retirees: 51% - 49%

Yeah, those numbers are facts, I suppose. But I’d say it’s more about how people with less education or fewer resources might be more susceptible to fear-based messaging—whether that fear is real or not. So, I wouldn't necessarily say "smart people vote VdB," because there's probably a deeper layer to it than that.

It makes sense, I guess, that a factory worker who feels replaceable might worry about new competition coming in, regardless of where they're from. They're worried about their livelihood. It's easy to blame different cultures or religions, but really, it's often just a fear of losing what they have. Honestly, maybe the educated aren't that different from everyone else in that regard.

The fix would be investing in education and raising the floor for everyone, but I doubt all the political parties actually want to go that route.

Nathan Morris3 said:I guess you could call it Hofer's home base. Right now, he’s leading in Eisenstadt by about 171 votes. It's not huge, but it is a small town. Maybe Mail-in voting changes things, though winning all the Federal capitals would probably just be symbolic at this point.

voter breakdown Hofer vs. VdB by education:
middle school: 55% - 45%
trades: 67% - 33%
high school diploma: 58% - 42%
college prep: 27% - 73%
university degree: 19% - 81%

voter breakdown Hofer vs. VdB by employment:
blue collar: 86% - 14%
office workers: 40% - 60%
government employees: 45% - 55%
self-employed: 53% - 47%
retirees: 51% - 49%

Yeah, those numbers are facts, I suppose. But I’d say it’s more about how people with less education or fewer resources might be more susceptible to fear-based messaging—whether that fear is real or not. So, I wouldn't necessarily say "smart people vote VdB," because there's probably a deeper layer to it than that.

It makes sense, I guess, that a factory worker who feels replaceable might worry about new competition coming in, regardless of where they're from. They're worried about their livelihood. It's easy to blame different cultures or religions, but really, it's often just a fear of losing what they have. Honestly, maybe the educated aren't that different from everyone else in that regard.

The fix would be investing in education and raising the floor for everyone, but I doubt all the political parties actually want to go that route.

Hold up. So you're saying the guy on the assembly line is afraid of "losing privileges," but someone living in a fancy neighborhood in Vienna isn't?

Richard Wilson4 said:Hold up. So you're saying the guy on the assembly line is afraid of "losing privileges," but someone living in a fancy neighborhood in Vienna isn't?

Well, I guess I’m just saying that wanting to hold onto privileges—whether you earned them or inherited them—is just part of being human. Rich or poor, it's pretty much the same. I suppose the difference is that migrants represent more competition for folks without degrees than for those who are highly educated. And yeah, maybe people should try to look at the bigger picture instead of just focusing on themselves. I think some people are just so caught up in their own survival that they don't really have the headspace to care about anything else.

Who did the voters actually support in yesterday's 2013 election?

Anyway, I gotta say, it’s just not a great look having mail-in voting be the thing that decides the winner. I mean, whoever ends up losing is probably just going to demand a recount, and then we'll all be stuck dealing with that whole headache.

Robert Clark4 said:Anyway, I gotta say, it’s just not a great look having mail-in voting be the thing that decides the winner. I mean, whoever ends up losing is probably just going to demand a recount, and then we'll all be stuck dealing with that whole headache.

Don't worry, dead people aren't casting ballots here. I guess mail-in voting has just as much legitimacy as any other method. Saying it’s bad because mail-in votes decide the president—or saying it's bad because they don't—is kind of like saying it's wrong that afternoon votes determine the winner. It doesn't really make sense; it's mostly the same people, just with different habits. We aren't talking about some diaspora that doesn't live in the United States or pay taxes, or people who have never even set foot in the United States. So, I think everything is fine.

I don't know, I've always kind of felt like mail-in voting just seems way more prone to being messed with. I mean, I'm just saying, I'm definitely not claiming it actually will happen!

And honestly, it wouldn't even surprise me if the losing candidate tried to challenge the results, especially if the margin is just a tiny fraction of a percent—like if it was Hofer. 😁

darkotter35 said:The Libertarian Party’s anti-Islam, Euroskeptic candidate, Norbert Hofer, just pulled ahead in the second round of the Austrian presidential elections, snagging 51.9% of the vote. But hold your horses—it’s not officially in the bag yet because the mail-in ballots haven't been tallied. That's what the Austrian Ministry of the Interior reported Sunday night.
Final numbers should be in by Monday, though there's about a 2% margin of error hanging over the whole thing.

Good grief, what are we looking at here? Is Austria sliding straight into fascism?
They’ll probably kick them out of the European Union, and then kiss those pensions goodbye. 🤣

I mean, seriously, how are poor Austrians ever going to survive without their Antifa, their Documents, and all those LGBT groups... they won't know what hit them. This is bad. Really bad.

At this point, the only hope left is that the folks counting the mail-in ballots pull an upset.🤣

I suppose we can expect the usual repertoire of predictable outrage to follow: accusations of being fascists, Nazis, or worse? 🕺

Nathan Morris3 said:Well, I guess I’m just saying that wanting to hold onto privileges—whether you earned them or inherited them—is just part of being human. Rich or poor, it's pretty much the same. I suppose the difference is that migrants represent more competition for folks without degrees than for those who are highly educated. And yeah, maybe people should try to look at the bigger picture instead of just focusing on themselves. I think some people are just so caught up in their own survival that they don't really have the headspace to care about anything else.

If that's how you feel, then don't go throwing around the term "privileges" when you're talking about the European working class. Seriously. They've lost so many rights they used to have back in the day, maybe twenty or thirty years ago. They barely have any say in politics or the media, they get hit with massive taxes, and then, to top it all off, they get blamed for everything and mocked for good measure.