Gold: Past, Present, and Future

Melissa Sanchez17 · 2012-01-13T21:47:07+00:00

Goldman Sachs said: The second Iran launches a missile at Israel—or vice versa—and gold is sprinting straight toward $2,000. Once that happens, nobody’s even g…

Andrew Barrett4 Active Member

163 messages
joined Jan 2018

#1281 · Sep 25, 2012

Gerald Chavez7 said:I'm still scouting for a broker... if anyone has recommendations, I'm all ears.

I'll likely stick with US-based firms, but I've got questions regarding wire transfers, security, and the whole ordeal...

Brokers?
It really depends on what you're after...

Stocks?
Bonds?
Index funds?
Goldman Sachs?
Options?
ETFs?
Niche instruments (like turbo's, speeders, or sprinters)?

Also, which markets are we talking about?

Personally, for smaller amounts, I use Charles Schwab, but for larger sums, I tend toward Fidelity. They're essentially doing the same thing, just with different commission structures—the first one is cheaper for smaller trades. For indices, or basically investing in pre-made portfolios, I use Vanguard services.

There's actually this comparison tool (it's called brokerrates) that focuses exclusively on brokerage services. It gets updated daily with everything—news, fees, changes, legislation, whatever. Unfortunately, it's all in Dutch :/. The first section covers recent news. Below that, you'll find an overview of the major brokerage houses. You can even run calculations for the fee structures.

I honestly don't know why Americans are so starved for comparative tools like this (at least, I haven't been able to find a single decent one), but I was searching specifically because I wanted to compare costs 🤷.

Andrew Barrett4 Active Member

163 messages
joined Jan 2018

#1282 · Sep 26, 2012

dustyheron5 said:You're absolutely right—if Germany (and the rest of the world) enters a recession, it’s better to hold onto your ammunition, namely the dollar; though, once again, Benjamin isn't a fan of that🤣 and has been quite vocal about pushing us away from the dollar and toward risk-on assets...😁

No smart man joins forces with whatever evil power😛 ends up winning.😂

Regarding QE3, this pullback was entirely expected. We'll see where things stand with metals around October 10th. It was similar last time during QE2—metals rallied leading up to the announcement, followed by a minor correction immediately after, before resuming a fierce rally... I see no reason why this time would be any different.😍

If you want my personal take on this... I guess it’s hard to say for sure without more data, but here's how I see things. I guess if... It’s really not even a question.

We’ve already touched on this topic before, I think. I find myself agreeing with the general sentiment, and I’ve basically positioned myself exactly how Mizuzul described—just sitting on the sidelines for now. To be honest, I haven't bought a single thing since this past summer; I'm just holding onto my cash. Part of that is a choice, I suppose, but part of it feels forced, given that the inevitable War of Ruza is looming over my household anyway. 😬 🤣)

From where I’m sitting, if 2011 turned out to be a profitable year, it probably didn't have much to do with things actually getting better on the ground. I suspect it was more about the fallout from those heavy budget cuts back in 2010 than any actual improvement in the general economy. Maybe it just felt like a relief after the squeeze, but I wouldn't go calling it a genuine recovery.

It’s not just a theory anymore; you can actually feel it happening. It's becoming palpable. And man, once it really starts to settle in... I’ve been looking over the latest numbers on industrial orders, and honestly, it’s hard to say much for certain without getting ahead of myself. Things feel a bit stagnant, I guess. There isn't a massive surge, but there isn't a total collapse either—it’s just that heavy, mid-cycle drift that makes you wonder where the momentum actually went. Maybe we're just seeing a temporary lull as companies wait for more clarity from the Fed, or maybe the appetite for large-scale capital expenditure is just cooling off across the board. It feels like everyone is holding their breath, waiting to see if the macro environment stabilizes before committing to the next big round of equipment buys. I don't know. It’s probably just one of those periods where the data sits in this grey area, neither signaling a boom nor a bust. Just a lot of quiet waiting around.I'm also keeping an eye on... The staffing industry. I guess you could call it what it is—just another cog in the machine. It’s a bit of a cynical way to make a living, really, just moving people around like pieces on a board to fill gaps for companies that don't want the commitment. Maybe it's necessary, maybe not, but it's definitely a strange corner of the economy. When it comes to those short-term gigs, the industry reacts incredibly fast. I guess what happens is that as soon as things start picking up, companies immediately flood the market with zero-hour contracts—you know the type, where they basically tell you, "we'll keep you around as long as we need you, but the second things slow down, you're out." It’s a bit of a revolving door. And it works exactly the same way in reverse; once the volume starts dropping, you see the layoffs hitting hard within a month. It’s just how the cycle goes.

Right now? Both are in a coma.

It's all pretty clear, I suppose.

quiettrucker12 Regular

375 messages
joined Sep 2004

#1283 · Sep 26, 2012

dustyheron5 said:You're absolutely right—if Germany (and the rest of the world) enters a recession, it’s better to hold onto your ammunition, namely the dollar; though, once again, Benjamin isn't a fan of that🤣 and has been quite vocal about pushing us away from the dollar and toward risk-on assets...😁

No smart man joins forces with whatever evil power😛 ends up winning.😂

Regarding QE3, this pullback was entirely expected. We'll see where things stand with metals around October 10th. It was similar last time during QE2—metals rallied leading up to the announcement, followed by a minor correction immediately after, before resuming a fierce rally... I see no reason why this time would be any different.😍

Dapace, Ben actually managed to keep QE3 under wraps this time. Back in 2010, everyone knew what was coming by August, long before the official word. This time, we're still waiting on that QE3 rally to kick in (watch for a test of 1900), followed by a much more significant correction after the event.

Paul Peterson4 Member

33 messages
joined May 2012

#1284 · Sep 26, 2012

dustyheron5 said:You're absolutely right—if Germany (and the rest of the world) enters a recession, it’s better to hold onto your ammunition, namely the dollar; though, once again, Benjamin isn't a fan of that🤣 and has been quite vocal about pushing us away from the dollar and toward risk-on assets...😁

No smart man joins forces with whatever evil power😛 ends up winning.😂

Regarding QE3, this pullback was entirely expected. We'll see where things stand with metals around October 10th. It was similar last time during QE2—metals rallied leading up to the announcement, followed by a minor correction immediately after, before resuming a fierce rally... I see no reason why this time would be any different.😍

So, basically, we might have a solid window to load up on more metals in about two weeks.
Personally, I wouldn't touch the dollar with a ten-foot pole since all my expenses are in Euros, and frankly, I’m not a fan of how Ben keeps printing and printing. You can't forget we have elections coming up, which means there'll be massive pressure to juice the economy so Osama can cruise to an easier victory. When it comes to politics, nobody asks about the cost—they just want a quick stimulus to win the election.
That said, I'm not expecting some wild swing in the Euro/Dollar exchange rate. Everyone is printing money over here and over there; jumping from the Euro to the Dollar is just moving from one sinking ship to another.

The whole economic situation smells like a stagflation scenario to me. Jobs will dry up, the government will print more cash, which triggers inflation, people will start hoarding, which drags the economy down even further, leaving us stuck in a period of stagnation.

This whole business with Tungsten feels like it was orchestrated by the villains. Usually, the smaller the coin or the thinner the metal, the lower the chance that the Tungsten has been seeded in there. It's a mess because you can't easily detect it unless you actually damage the coin or the bar. Maybe soon we'll see physical bullion encased in plastic with holograms just to guarantee it hasn't been tampered with? Like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinebar
Or they'll just stick to 0.1 ounce coins, hoping the profit margin is too slim for anyone to bother messing with them. Or better yet, silver: if a one-ounce coin is worth maybe 30 Euros, the potential profit from melting it down is so much lower than gold that you'd hope nobody even tries it.

Right now, I'm slowly building my silver position through bullionvault.com—just a few kilos every week or two. If a serious dip shows up, I'll buy more.

Anthony Evans78 Regular

371 messages
joined Feb 2019

#1285 · Sep 26, 2012

There’s a dead simple, non-invasive way to check if there's any Tungsten hidden inside a gold coin: just use ultrasonic testing. You can pick up a device for a few hundred bucks, so I honestly don't get how any reputable jeweler or dealer in the US doesn't have one on hand.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rh0Mcagio5Q
I'm with you on sticking to one-ounce investment gold. It’s especially smart when dealing with those classic coins you see all over the States—the ones that are easy to identify and nearly impossible to fake, like old Eagles or Sovereigns.

dustyheron5 Regular

353 messages
joined Nov 2015

#1286 · Sep 26, 2012

hollowmoose21 said:Got a specific target in mind for this pullback? Looking for an entry point. 😍

I don't have a set target—I haven't been diving deep into the charts—and frankly, I don't plan on adding to my position (unless there's a chance to reclaim some of the SLWe I sold, naturally), but if you're looking for a general idea, a decent entry price might emerge during the first week of October. 😍

quiettrucker12 Regular

375 messages
joined Sep 2004

#1287 · Sep 26, 2012

Right now, everyone is playing chess, trying to outsmart the market. Most people are going to miss the boat when the Dollar finally slips—once the DXY dips below 81 and hits the red zone.

Melissa Sanchez17 RegularOP

359 messages
joined Feb 2019

#1288 · Sep 26, 2012

quiettrucker12 said:Right now, everyone is playing chess, trying to outsmart the market. Most people are going to miss the boat when the Dollar finally slips—once the DXY dips below 81 and hits the red zone.

Spot on, man! These tactics are absolute garbage. If you miss the window, you're looking at 🙂

Melissa Sanchez17 RegularOP

359 messages
joined Feb 2019

#1289 · Sep 26, 2012

Since we’re already talking about things going dark

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-0...on-now-offline

Anthony Evans78 Regular

371 messages
joined Feb 2019

#1290 · Sep 26, 2012

"That's fine, I guess Ben Bernanke will just print more gold if he needs to."😂

rapidranger54 Member

17 messages
joined May 2023

#1291 · Sep 26, 2012

Anthony Evans78 said:"That's fine, I guess Ben Bernanke will just print more gold if he needs to."😂

Every so often, I find myself wondering why one of us on this forum isn't running the Federal Reserve. If Ben can be this clumsy, surely there's someone better suited among us...

neondriver5 Active Member

116 messages
joined May 2017

#1292 · Sep 26, 2012

Andrew Barrett4 said:If you want my personal take on this... I guess it’s hard to say for sure without more data, but here's how I see things. I guess if... It’s really not even a question.

We’ve already touched on this topic before, I think. I find myself agreeing with the general sentiment, and I’ve basically positioned myself exactly how Mizuzul described—just sitting on the sidelines for now. To be honest, I haven't bought a single thing since this past summer; I'm just holding onto my cash. Part of that is a choice, I suppose, but part of it feels forced, given that the inevitable War of Ruza is looming over my household anyway. 😬 🤣)

From where I’m sitting, if 2011 turned out to be a profitable year, it probably didn't have much to do with things actually getting better on the ground. I suspect it was more about the fallout from those heavy budget cuts back in 2010 than any actual improvement in the general economy. Maybe it just felt like a relief after the squeeze, but I wouldn't go calling it a genuine recovery.

It’s not just a theory anymore; you can actually feel it happening. It's becoming palpable. And man, once it really starts to settle in... I’ve been looking over the latest numbers on industrial orders, and honestly, it’s hard to say much for certain without getting ahead of myself. Things feel a bit stagnant, I guess. There isn't a massive surge, but there isn't a total collapse either—it’s just that heavy, mid-cycle drift that makes you wonder where the momentum actually went. Maybe we're just seeing a temporary lull as companies wait for more clarity from the Fed, or maybe the appetite for large-scale capital expenditure is just cooling off across the board. It feels like everyone is holding their breath, waiting to see if the macro environment stabilizes before committing to the next big round of equipment buys. I don't know. It’s probably just one of those periods where the data sits in this grey area, neither signaling a boom nor a bust. Just a lot of quiet waiting around.I'm also keeping an eye on... The staffing industry. I guess you could call it what it is—just another cog in the machine. It’s a bit of a cynical way to make a living, really, just moving people around like pieces on a board to fill gaps for companies that don't want the commitment. Maybe it's necessary, maybe not, but it's definitely a strange corner of the economy. When it comes to those short-term gigs, the industry reacts incredibly fast. I guess what happens is that as soon as things start picking up, companies immediately flood the market with zero-hour contracts—you know the type, where they basically tell you, "we'll keep you around as long as we need you, but the second things slow down, you're out." It’s a bit of a revolving door. And it works exactly the same way in reverse; once the volume starts dropping, you see the layoffs hitting hard within a month. It’s just how the cycle goes.

Right now? Both are in a coma.

It's all pretty clear, I suppose.

I'm struggling to wrap my head around this. Two things to start with:

Is it actually possible that Canada has the second-highest unemployment rate on the planet? I don't know if we're talking about surveyed data or official government stats, but this chart is claiming a staggering 48% unemployment rate!?
Most of Africa looks better than that, wtf?

Second question: how is it that fewer people are heading over to Switzerland? They have some of the strongest economies in Europe, an unemployment rate of just 4.8%, and their currency has strengthened significantly against the Euro and the USD—currencies they likely use for most of their imports...

As for gold, I have nothing to add. Nobody knows anything. Everyone is just guessing, and Goldbugs are wandering around aimlessly. I'm still just searching for a reliable broker here in Rhode Island to invest in gold (not miners, actual physical gold, or maybe an ETF) and so on... nothing new in the West.

dustyheron5 Regular

353 messages
joined Nov 2015

#1293 · Sep 26, 2012

neondriver5 said:

I'm struggling to wrap my head around this. Two things to start with:

Is it actually possible that Canada has the second-highest unemployment rate on the planet? I don't know if we're talking about surveyed data or official government stats, but this chart is claiming a staggering 48% unemployment rate!?
Most of Africa looks better than that, wtf?

Second question: how is it that fewer people are heading over to Switzerland? They have some of the strongest economies in Europe, an unemployment rate of just 4.8%, and their currency has strengthened significantly against the Euro and the USD—currencies they likely use for most of their imports...

As for gold, I have nothing to add. Nobody knows anything. Everyone is just guessing, and Goldbugs are wandering around aimlessly. I'm still just searching for a reliable broker here in Rhode Island to invest in gold (not miners, actual physical gold, or maybe an ETF) and so on... nothing new in the West.
I'm struggling to wrap my head around this. Two things to start with:

Is it actually possible that Canada has the second-highest unemployment rate on the planet? I don't know if we're talking about surveyed data or official government stats, but this chart is claiming a staggering 48% unemployment rate!?
Most of Africa looks better than that, wtf?

Second question: how is it that fewer people are heading over to Switzerland? They have some of the strongest economies in Europe, an unemployment rate of just 4.8%, and their currency has strengthened significantly against the Euro and the USD—currencies they likely use for most of their imports...

As for gold, I have nothing to add. Nobody knows anything. Everyone is just guessing, and Goldbugs are wandering around aimlessly. I'm still just searching for a reliable broker here in Rhode Island to invest in gold (not miners, actual physical gold, or maybe an ETF) and so on... nothing new in the West.
You’d be better off looking for a broker who won't go belly up rather than just one that's "reliable"... there are far more reliable options out there than there are firms that aren't facing total collapse.😁

Patrick Moore3 Active Member

93 messages
joined Jun 2009

#1294 · Sep 26, 2012

neondriver5 said:

I'm struggling to wrap my head around this. Two things to start with:

Is it actually possible that Canada has the second-highest unemployment rate on the planet? I don't know if we're talking about surveyed data or official government stats, but this chart is claiming a staggering 48% unemployment rate!?
Most of Africa looks better than that, wtf?

Second question: how is it that fewer people are heading over to Switzerland? They have some of the strongest economies in Europe, an unemployment rate of just 4.8%, and their currency has strengthened significantly against the Euro and the USD—currencies they likely use for most of their imports...

As for gold, I have nothing to add. Nobody knows anything. Everyone is just guessing, and Goldbugs are wandering around aimlessly. I'm still just searching for a reliable broker here in Rhode Island to invest in gold (not miners, actual physical gold, or maybe an ETF) and so on... nothing new in the West.
I'm struggling to wrap my head around this. Two things to start with:

Is it actually possible that Canada has the second-highest unemployment rate on the planet? I don't know if we're talking about surveyed data or official government stats, but this chart is claiming a staggering 48% unemployment rate!?
Most of Africa looks better than that, wtf?

Second question: how is it that fewer people are heading over to Switzerland? They have some of the strongest economies in Europe, an unemployment rate of just 4.8%, and their currency has strengthened significantly against the Euro and the USD—currencies they likely use for most of their imports...

As for gold, I have nothing to add. Nobody knows anything. Everyone is just guessing, and Goldbugs are wandering around aimlessly. I'm still just searching for a reliable broker here in Rhode Island to invest in gold (not miners, actual physical gold, or maybe an ETF) and so on... nothing new in the West.
Got a subscription email hit my inbox the other day: "Word of the day: ETF"!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l36wa...em-uploademail

nimblepanther18 Member

31 messages
joined Feb 2012

#1295 · Sep 27, 2012

dustyheron5 said:I don't have a set target—I haven't been diving deep into the charts—and frankly, I don't plan on adding to my position (unless there's a chance to reclaim some of the SLWe I sold, naturally), but if you're looking for a general idea, a decent entry price might emerge during the first week of October. 😍

I wanted to ask you earlier regarding this price drop—is there going to be a significant hit at the beginning of October? Will prices tumble? I would also like to ask you and others to weigh in on Marica carica's charts. To me, everything looks like a decline for metals, particularly silver, which I am considering buying more of. It seems foolish to buy now if I have a chance to pick it up at a better price later. I am concerned that if Germany slips into a recession, we will all go down with them. That triggers other issues, such as a general drop in revenue; when sales stall, prices are slashed, which leads to a deflationary spiral that could negatively impact metal prices. Does anyone have any insight?

Sandra Sullivan Member

10 messages
joined Aug 2012

#1296 · Sep 27, 2012

neondriver5 said:

I'm struggling to wrap my head around this. Two things to start with:

Is it actually possible that Canada has the second-highest unemployment rate on the planet? I don't know if we're talking about surveyed data or official government stats, but this chart is claiming a staggering 48% unemployment rate!?
Most of Africa looks better than that, wtf?

Second question: how is it that fewer people are heading over to Switzerland? They have some of the strongest economies in Europe, an unemployment rate of just 4.8%, and their currency has strengthened significantly against the Euro and the USD—currencies they likely use for most of their imports...

As for gold, I have nothing to add. Nobody knows anything. Everyone is just guessing, and Goldbugs are wandering around aimlessly. I'm still just searching for a reliable broker here in Rhode Island to invest in gold (not miners, actual physical gold, or maybe an ETF) and so on... nothing new in the West.
I'm struggling to wrap my head around this. Two things to start with:

Is it actually possible that Canada has the second-highest unemployment rate on the planet? I don't know if we're talking about surveyed data or official government stats, but this chart is claiming a staggering 48% unemployment rate!?
Most of Africa looks better than that, wtf?

Second question: how is it that fewer people are heading over to Switzerland? They have some of the strongest economies in Europe, an unemployment rate of just 4.8%, and their currency has strengthened significantly against the Euro and the USD—currencies they likely use for most of their imports...

As for gold, I have nothing to add. Nobody knows anything. Everyone is just guessing, and Goldbugs are wandering around aimlessly. I'm still just searching for a reliable broker here in Rhode Island to invest in gold (not miners, actual physical gold, or maybe an ETF) and so on... nothing new in the West.
Look, Canada is basically paradise if you're planning on working under the table, so the actual situation isn't nearly as grim as those official numbers make it out to be.

dustyheron5 Regular

353 messages
joined Nov 2015

#1297 · Sep 27, 2012

nimblepanther18 said:I wanted to ask you earlier regarding this price drop—is there going to be a significant hit at the beginning of October? Will prices tumble? I would also like to ask you and others to weigh in on Marica carica's charts. To me, everything looks like a decline for metals, particularly silver, which I am considering buying more of. It seems foolish to buy now if I have a chance to pick it up at a better price later. I am concerned that if Germany slips into a recession, we will all go down with them. That triggers other issues, such as a general drop in revenue; when sales stall, prices are slashed, which leads to a deflationary spiral that could negatively impact metal prices. Does anyone have any insight?

Nothing out of the ordinary is expected. I did some digging into how metal prices behaved following Quantitative Easing 2—prices actually climbed for a few months leading up to the official announcement... only to see a pullback (lasting about a month) once Ben officially announced the program.
So, we're looking at a window roughly until October 10th—which is why I suggested there might be an opportunity to pick things up at a discount.

There is, however, a much nastier possibility: the world could sink into a deeper crisis or another recession. The global economic outlook is pretty grim—just look at China—and despite the various Quantitative Easing programs from the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the PBOC, we could still face that nasty deflationary spiral scenario you mentioned.
A lot of this hinges on how Americans handle the fiscal cliff and the debt ceiling issues.

We need to keep a close eye on how things develop.☕

Melissa Sanchez17 RegularOP

359 messages
joined Feb 2019

#1298 · Sep 27, 2012

neondriver5 said:

I'm struggling to wrap my head around this. Two things to start with:

Is it actually possible that Canada has the second-highest unemployment rate on the planet? I don't know if we're talking about surveyed data or official government stats, but this chart is claiming a staggering 48% unemployment rate!?
Most of Africa looks better than that, wtf?

Second question: how is it that fewer people are heading over to Switzerland? They have some of the strongest economies in Europe, an unemployment rate of just 4.8%, and their currency has strengthened significantly against the Euro and the USD—currencies they likely use for most of their imports...

As for gold, I have nothing to add. Nobody knows anything. Everyone is just guessing, and Goldbugs are wandering around aimlessly. I'm still just searching for a reliable broker here in Rhode Island to invest in gold (not miners, actual physical gold, or maybe an ETF) and so on... nothing new in the West.
I'm struggling to wrap my head around this. Two things to start with:

Is it actually possible that Canada has the second-highest unemployment rate on the planet? I don't know if we're talking about surveyed data or official government stats, but this chart is claiming a staggering 48% unemployment rate!?
Most of Africa looks better than that, wtf?

Second question: how is it that fewer people are heading over to Switzerland? They have some of the strongest economies in Europe, an unemployment rate of just 4.8%, and their currency has strengthened significantly against the Euro and the USD—currencies they likely use for most of their imports...

As for gold, I have nothing to add. Nobody knows anything. Everyone is just guessing, and Goldbugs are wandering around aimlessly. I'm still just searching for a reliable broker here in Rhode Island to invest in gold (not miners, actual physical gold, or maybe an ETF) and so on... nothing new in the West.
Would you actually try day trading gold, or would you just buy and hold for the long haul? Honestly, you have to sink a massive amount of time into digging through ETFs and vetting a broker properly—you know, just to make sure your money doesn't vanish into thin air. And even then, there's always that risk hanging over your head. 🤷

Anthony Evans78 Regular

371 messages
joined Feb 2019

#1299 · Sep 27, 2012

You can find plenty of real gold in online classifieds; you don't need some broker to hunt it down for you.

Melissa Sanchez17 RegularOP

359 messages
joined Feb 2019

#1300 · Sep 27, 2012

Anthony Evans78 said:You can find plenty of real gold in online classifieds; you don't need some broker to hunt it down for you.

And honestly? If it’s coming out of Asia, you probably shouldn't even bother. 😍

http://investmentwatchblog.com/60-to...MzX8Wikl5BQ.99

Gold: Past, Present, and Future

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