Gold: Past, Present, and Future

That’s why you shouldn't hold anything worth more than an ounce.
And even then, stick to coins.

Next stop, 1900. Or maybe just a correction... assuming the Dollar doesn't completely crater first, which, let's be honest, it probably should.

quiettrucker12 said:Next stop, 1900. Or maybe just a correction... assuming the Dollar doesn't completely crater first, which, let's be honest, it probably should.

So, how deep is this correction going to go in your book, my esteemed colleague? We've got those data releases coming up on October 5th. Could get pretty interesting. 😉

Melissa Sanchez17 said:So, how deep is this correction going to go in your book, my esteemed colleague? We've got those data releases coming up on October 5th. Could get pretty interesting. 😉

Right now, the key is seeing if the Dollar slips below 78.90. If it does, it’s almost certainly heading under 78.6 before the whole thing crashes. As for gold, we'll see what happens in real-time—maybe a correction from 1890 down to 1700, or maybe just a 50-point dip. That's all just guesswork for now; we'll find out when we find out. It'll probably take two or three weeks to hit 1900.

A little something for my fellow fiat-believers to chew on—let’s talk hyperinflation. 😍

http://goldsilver.com/news/concerted...yperinflation/

dustyheron5 said:A little something for my fellow fiat-believers to chew on—let’s talk hyperinflation. 😍

http://goldsilver.com/news/concerted...yperinflation/

Ah, Egon von Greyerz

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/29_Von_Greyerz_-_Gold_Will_Trade_$3,000_-_$5,000_in_2012.html

I just can't take this guy seriously. He manages to call things right almost as often as some drunk at a dive bar in New Orleans.🤣

Ashanti Gold just shut down their mines in South Africa
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/201...lows-platinum/

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Ah, Egon von Greyerz

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/29_Von_Greyerz_-_Gold_Will_Trade_$3,000_-_$5,000_in_2012.html

I just can't take this guy seriously. He manages to call things right almost as often as some drunk at a dive bar in New Orleans.🤣

Which specific parts of his text are you disagreeing with?

dustyheron5 said:Which specific parts of his text are you disagreeing with?

Look, I wasn't even talking about this specific piece—I was talking about his track record of missing the mark time and time again. As for what he actually wrote here... honestly, I don't see this happening.

"the Euro vs the US Dollar"

I'm totally with you on that one.

I've been calling for synchronized moves from the central banks for a while now, and even if they didn't pull the trigger all at once, the coordination was obvious.

The Fed and other central banks are going to try their hardest to keep inflation at some level they deem "acceptable"—as if they get to decide what that is. Some people think they can actually pull it off. Personally? Not me. I think things are going to spiral out of their control. Once that happens, they'll pivot to a new monetary system—something they're already laying the groundwork for behind the scenes. It's hard to say exactly how messy that transition will be, but for most regular folks, it could be pretty damn ugly.

If you take a look at Greenspan’s predictions over the last decade, he’s actually been pretty spot on.
In my book, the Euro vs the US Dollar goes first, then the dollar follows.
Unless what Jim Willie wrote in his last post actually happens—that The Eagle decides to ditch the dollar as the payment method for oil.
If that happens, we'll have much bigger problems to worry about.🙂

If you look back at Greenspan’s forecasts over the last decade, he’s actually been pretty spot on.
In my book, the Euro vs the US Dollar goes down first, then the dollar follows.
Unless we see exactly what Jim Willie laid out in his latest piece—that the Eagle finally decides to ditch the dollar as the standard for oil payments.
If that happens, we'll have much bigger problems to worry about🙂

Anthony Evans78 said:If you take a look at Greenspan’s predictions over the last decade, he’s actually been pretty spot on.
In my book, the Euro vs the US Dollar goes first, then the dollar follows.
Unless what Jim Willie wrote in his last post actually happens—that The Eagle decides to ditch the dollar as the payment method for oil.
If that happens, we'll have much bigger problems to worry about.🙂

Look, this estimate is straight from July 16, 2012. It’s the exact same prediction as six months prior; all he’s doing is moving the goalposts on when it finally hits the fan.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIohf2nfk14

dustyheron5 said:A little something for my fellow fiat-believers to chew on—let’s talk hyperinflation. 😍

http://goldsilver.com/news/concerted...yperinflation/

God, I honestly pity these so-called experts and the massive paychecks they pull for being so wrong. It’s like they’re mentally stuck in 1971 and just refuse to accept that the entire American monetary system has fundamentally shifted since then—I mean, the gold standard is dead, and ever since '82, the money supply hasn't even played the role people think it does.

According to the quantity theory of money:
MV = PQ

Greyer focuses way too much on the money supply (M), but he's completely overlooking the fact that back in '82, the Federal Reserve basically gave up on targeting the money supply altogether and pivoted toward targeting interest rates instead. And you know why? Because around 1980, the velocity of money (V) started acting totally bizarre; it stopped growing linearly like the theory predicts it should have from 1958 through 1980. So, the Federal Reserve just walked away from trying to control the money supply because they realized velocity could plummet at any moment, which essentially made that whole theory useless for actually "controlling" the economy.



The Count's chart explains everything perfectly: if the Federal Reserve were pumping out this much cash through things like QE back in, say, 1965, we would be staring down the barrel of hyperinflation right now (because if M and V both rise according to that equation, prices P absolutely have to skyrocket). But since V is falling today, the Federal Reserve can print as much as they want, and yet, look—no miracle hyperinflation in sight.

The answer is pretty straightforward: all that money the Federal Reserve printed just went straight to the banks so they could cover their OTC derivatives, MBS, and whatever other financial magic tricks they’re pulling. Of course we aren't seeing hyperinflation yet—that cash is still just sitting there with the banks while they pretend they're actually solvent.

Who actually determines the velocity of money?

Japanese 🙂

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Japanese 🙂

😁

dustyheron5 said:😁

I have been following this thread, and I must admit it is quite engaging for someone who isn't an economist by trade, but simply follows these matters out of pure curiosity. However, there are a few points I cannot quite grasp. I will jump in briefly to pose a question, though I will likely end up looking foolish...
The entire situation regarding fiat currency and the inflationary pressures exerted by central banks—which politicians pressure to print unbacked money just to maintain some semblance of "domestic peace" or economic stability—is clear enough to me.
It is also obvious that this results in the erosion of purchasing power. I am certainly not young enough to be unaware of how much one could buy with a hundred dollars decades ago compared to what fifty dollars buys today. It is the same principle.
It stands to reason that people "flee" from paper money in favor of gold. After all, it is a millennia-old alternative that serves as the most efficient way to preserve the value of one's savings...
But I am somewhat perplexed by one fact: the amount of investment gold in circulation increases every single day. In the US alone, perhaps 100 kilos of gold from old family jewelry probably find their way to buyback stations every day to be converted into investment grade. And that is to say nothing of what is being pulled from the mines...
How, then, can we expect the price of something to rise when its market supply grows daily?
Ultimately, both gold and paper money are symbols. Behind the dollar stands America and her economy; behind gold stands a thousand years of reliability. Who stands behind the Euro? The Germans? The Greeks?🙂I shall stop here before I appear too ignorant.

dustyheron5 said:Who actually determines the velocity of money?

The media, obviously.

Whenever they're obsessing over mindless celebrity gossip—like some influencer's ridiculous designer handbag—the velocity shoots up. But the second they start pivoting to doom-and-gloom stories about how greedy Wall Street execs are going to trigger the apocalypse, the velocity just tanks.

rapidranger54 said:I have been following this thread, and I must admit it is quite engaging for someone who isn't an economist by trade, but simply follows these matters out of pure curiosity. However, there are a few points I cannot quite grasp. I will jump in briefly to pose a question, though I will likely end up looking foolish...
The entire situation regarding fiat currency and the inflationary pressures exerted by central banks—which politicians pressure to print unbacked money just to maintain some semblance of "domestic peace" or economic stability—is clear enough to me.
It is also obvious that this results in the erosion of purchasing power. I am certainly not young enough to be unaware of how much one could buy with a hundred dollars decades ago compared to what fifty dollars buys today. It is the same principle.
It stands to reason that people "flee" from paper money in favor of gold. After all, it is a millennia-old alternative that serves as the most efficient way to preserve the value of one's savings...
But I am somewhat perplexed by one fact: the amount of investment gold in circulation increases every single day. In the US alone, perhaps 100 kilos of gold from old family jewelry probably find their way to buyback stations every day to be converted into investment grade. And that is to say nothing of what is being pulled from the mines...
How, then, can we expect the price of something to rise when its market supply grows daily?
Ultimately, both gold and paper money are symbols. Behind the dollar stands America and her economy; behind gold stands a thousand years of reliability. Who stands behind the Euro? The Germans? The Greeks?🙂I shall stop here before I appear too ignorant.

You have to understand that demand for investment gold is drawn from the total pool of liquidity—much like stocks, bonds, real estate, silver, commodities, and so on. For example, someone holding bonds—pension funds, hedge funds, etc.—might find they aren't satisfied with the returns because they aren't beating inflation. They decide to sell those bonds and buy gold—and just like that, you have new demand...

Or perhaps you own real estate and decide to pivot into gold. You could have simply kept that money in a bank account earning, say, three percent interest—while the official inflation rate here is four percent. In that scenario, you are essentially accepting a negative real return just by keeping cash in the bank...

Regarding mining, it only increases the gold supply by about two percent. If investment demand grows faster than production, then logically, it cannot exert downward pressure on the price...

Furthermore, without crises, Zira, NIRPa, or interventions from the CBA, gold wouldn't be nearly as sought after—the price would likely remain stable rather than climbing...

One shouldn't forget that gold is the ultimate form of liquidity—which is absolutely vital during times of crisis...