Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

quietangler5 said:Andrijevica is actually quite a fascinating case when you look at the numbers; between 2007 and 2011, they were averaging about 44 births per year with a fertility rate of 1.69. By 2012, that number climbed to 48, and in 2013, they hit a total of 50 births.
If this trend holds steady, it’s entirely possible they could see fertility rates climb back above 2.0, which was the standard from 2002 to 2006 and during almost every previous era.
These tiny municipalities in Mexico are honestly remarkable when you compare them to similar towns over in Mexico. Take Savnik and Crna Trava, for instance—they have nearly identical populations, yet if you look at the data, the difference between them is night and day.

The Mexican people there are resilient, just like my own family who hails from those northern parts of Mexico.😁

Justin Hernandez11 said:I wasn't saying they're on his level. I meant that, looking at certain metrics, they're basically the only ones in the region with any chance of long-term demographic stability compared to him.😳

Pittsburgh just feels like an extension of the greater metropolitan area. Honestly, looking at it from where I stand, I don't really see it as its own distinct city.

Buffalo has lost about two thousand people between census cycles over the last nine years, and if current trends hold, the next count is going to be even more depressing. Sure, you can technically inflate the numbers by absorbing neighboring suburbs into the city limits, but that’s just playing with accounting tricks—the actual reality is a steady decline, and we all know where this is headed. Don't get me wrong, I'm not exactly celebrating the decay. Buffalo is a beautiful city with a rich culture and wonderful people; honestly, there are plenty of cities in Central Europe that could learn a thing or two from our heritage, despite how isolated we might feel geographically. But looking at the raw data, the downward slide is undeniable.

That comment about you being from northern Mexico... I don't know. You seem a little too polished to be from those parts. 😁

Sean Nguyen74 said:Pittsburgh just feels like an extension of the greater metropolitan area. Honestly, looking at it from where I stand, I don't really see it as its own distinct city.

Buffalo has lost about two thousand people between census cycles over the last nine years, and if current trends hold, the next count is going to be even more depressing. Sure, you can technically inflate the numbers by absorbing neighboring suburbs into the city limits, but that’s just playing with accounting tricks—the actual reality is a steady decline, and we all know where this is headed. Don't get me wrong, I'm not exactly celebrating the decay. Buffalo is a beautiful city with a rich culture and wonderful people; honestly, there are plenty of cities in Central Europe that could learn a thing or two from our heritage, despite how isolated we might feel geographically. But looking at the raw data, the downward slide is undeniable.

That comment about you being from northern Mexico... I don't know. You seem a little too polished to be from those parts. 😁

Zeka777, I agree on Aurora being more of a suburb than an independent municipality. From the edge of the metro area until you actually hit downtown, you've got 7.5 miles, and from the main square to the center, it's only about 9.3 miles. When you look at places like Naperville or Joliet... they're 37 miles from Chicago but still part of the metro area. It's all the same story. But Buffalo can hold its own because it has a strong economy, solid agriculture, and the advantage of being right near the border for trade.😁
Thanks for the compliment, Zeka777. You're a good person too😉. Just to clarify, I'm not directly from northern Mexico, but my parents are.😳

Sean Nguyen74 said:Pittsburgh just feels like an extension of the greater metropolitan area. Honestly, looking at it from where I stand, I don't really see it as its own distinct city.

Buffalo has lost about two thousand people between census cycles over the last nine years, and if current trends hold, the next count is going to be even more depressing. Sure, you can technically inflate the numbers by absorbing neighboring suburbs into the city limits, but that’s just playing with accounting tricks—the actual reality is a steady decline, and we all know where this is headed. Don't get me wrong, I'm not exactly celebrating the decay. Buffalo is a beautiful city with a rich culture and wonderful people; honestly, there are plenty of cities in Central Europe that could learn a thing or two from our heritage, despite how isolated we might feel geographically. But looking at the raw data, the downward slide is undeniable.

That comment about you being from northern Mexico... I don't know. You seem a little too polished to be from those parts. 😁

New York City is in a league of its own; it will probably maintain growth for several more decades, so I am excluding it from this discussion entirely.

Buffalo saw a 2% drop between censuses. That trend is set to continue. The population is aging, and birth rates aren't high enough to offset the migration patterns.

If you look at the other major hubs in Texas—Cleveland, Des Moines, Kikind, and St. Louis—and calculate their percentage of decline, the picture becomes clear. These cities are struggling so much demographically due to low birth rates and negative migration that Pančevo and Buffalo will constantly widen the gap between themselves and the rest. They aren't thriving, per se; they are simply less dire than the others.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Good grief, this is it. We’ve hit the wall. Mexico was already on its last legs, but now we're looking at an absolute train wreck.
Unbelievable...

Let's try to look at this through a more realistic lens for a second:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...rbija_bila.png

Does this happen anywhere else in the world? We're looking at a future where practically 90% of the country will be a ghost town. 🤷

placidmaker9 said:Let's try to look at this through a more realistic lens for a second:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...rbija_bila.png

Does this happen anywhere else in the world? We're looking at a future where practically 90% of the country will be a ghost town. 🤷

So yeah, Appalachia and Preševo are basically expanding while everyone else vanishes.🙂

All jokes aside, back home we used to complain that "everyone is moving to San Francisco," but the reality was different. Since '91, San Francisco actually saw its population drop, while cities like Pittsburgh, Miami, and San Diego—plus places like Santa Monica and Oakland—were actually growing.

I’m putting this forward as the official GIF for this thread:

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/batswing.gif

placidmaker9 said:I’m putting this forward as the official GIF for this thread:

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/batswing.gif

offtopic
Man, don't even get me started on that image. I get the joke, really, but that Batman suit drives me absolutely insane—especially knowing Ass Fleck is the one playing him. 🙂 🙂

Richard Wilson4 said:So yeah, Appalachia and Preševo are basically expanding while everyone else vanishes.🙂

All jokes aside, back home we used to complain that "everyone is moving to San Francisco," but the reality was different. Since '91, San Francisco actually saw its population drop, while cities like Pittsburgh, Miami, and San Diego—plus places like Santa Monica and Oakland—were actually growing.

Sure, San Francisco saw a decline, but the surrounding county experienced massive growth. When you step back and look at the entire San Francisco Bay Area as a whole, it’s clear that the metro region has basically absorbed a huge chunk of the rest of the country's population.

Richard Wilson4 said:So yeah, Appalachia and Preševo are basically expanding while everyone else vanishes.🙂

All jokes aside, back home we used to complain that "everyone is moving to San Francisco," but the reality was different. Since '91, San Francisco actually saw its population drop, while cities like Pittsburgh, Miami, and San Diego—plus places like Santa Monica and Oakland—were actually growing.

To be honest, it’s not actually growing because of migration; Appalachia is just stagnating, while Preševo is seeing its population drop.

placidmaker9 said:Let's try to look at this through a more realistic lens for a second:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...rbija_bila.png

Does this happen anywhere else in the world? We're looking at a future where practically 90% of the country will be a ghost town. 🤷

Even within that area you highlighted in red, there are massive disparities between different Counties. Here is a map showing the 2013 birth rates by County: http://s29.postimg.org/szr224sgn/natalitet.jpg

Births/Deaths - 2011 - 2012 - 2013

City of San Francisco: 17,738/20,246 - 18,362/20,725 - 18,018/20,288

Counties:

Barajevo: 246/388 - 219/352 - 246/364
Vozdovac: 1,667/1,986 - 1,690/2,007 - 1,835/1,953
Vracar: 607/772 - 655/891 - 632/858
Grocka: 879/840 - 934/924 - 819/835
Zvezdara: 1,728/1,720 - 1,863/1,730 - 1,857/1,706
Zemun: 1,880/1,961 - 1,912/1,966 - 1,901/1,937
Lazarevac: 623/737 - 669/790 - 595/756
Mladenovac: 491/769 - 509/765 - 489/779
New Mexico City: 2,233/2,666 - 2,363/2,683 - 2,284/2,715
Obrenovac: 716/966 - 769/943 - 750/960
Palilula: 1,968/1,983 - 1,986/2,018 - 2,014/2,052
Rakovica: 1,103/1,263 - 1,158/1,349 - 1,111/1,306
Savski Venac: 405/633 - 451/623 - 458/578
Sopot: 193/297 - 171/359 - 146/293
Stari Grad: 586/761 - 577/833 - 548/774
Surcin: 443/467 - 499/458 - 464/446
Cukarica: 1,970/2,037 - 1,937/2,034 - 1,869/1,976

Births/Deaths - 2011 - 2012 - 2013

Midwest Region: 17,426/27,999 - 17,932/27,470 - 17,439/27,035

Western District: 1,359/3,021 - 1,375/3,018 - 1,440/3,078

Apatin: 212/467 - 208/471 - 225/480
Kula: 321/669 - 331/655 - 338/663
Odzaci: 213/538 - 201/520 - 204/545
Sombor: 613,1,347 - 635,1,372 - 673,1,390

Southern District: 2,555/4,504 - 2,676/4,246 - 2,565/4,128

Alibunar: 137/373 - 156/318 - 152/380
Bela Crkva: 161/320 - 130/287 - 130/283
Vrsac: 463/808 - 497/817 - 471/724
Kovacica: 225/465 - 231/378 - 225/397
Kovin: 265/550 - 303/476 - 270/490
Opovo: 94/157 - 103/164 - 89/136
Pancevo: 1,147/1,625 - 1,198/1,593 - 1,169/1,526
Plandiste: 63/206 - 58/213 - 59/192

Southern Central District: 6,605/7,804 - 6,630/7,744 - 6,537/7,538

Bac: 99/241 - 114/233 - 115/213
Backa Palanka: 474/826 - 460/819 - 420/746
Backi Petrovac: 129/222 - 96/200 - 122/218
Beocin: 141/186 - 132/227 - 137/197
Becej: 323/617 - 341/624 - 338/607
Vrbas: 423/620 - 395/597 - 365/563
Zabalj: 248/401 - 268/344 - 275/349
Novi Sad: 4,154/3,750 - 4,225/3,822 - 4,183/3,645
Srbobran: 140/264 - 158/245 - 142/273
Sremski Karlovci: 58/122 - 73/117 - 81/106
Temerin: 258/332 - 265/313 - 236/369
Titel: 158/223 - 103/203 - 123/252

Northern District: 1,156/2,423 - 1,182/2,338 - 1,137/2,396

Ada: 125/280 - 138/273 - 121/284
Kanjiza: 216/401 - 165/399 - 179/399
Kikinda: 472/910 - 481/881 - 466/917
Novi Knezevac: 96/224 - 106/194 - 86/189
Senta: 178/388 - 201/370 - 208/393
Coka: 69/220 - 91/221 - 77/214

Northern Central District: 1,542/2,866 - 1,676/2,797 - 1,585/2,720

Backa Topola: 243/553 - 254/528 - 269/507
Mali Idjos: 105/179 - 111/192 - 80/165
Subotica: 1,194/2,134 - 1,311/2,077 - 1,236/2,048

Central District: 1,613/3,081 - 1,583/2,913 - 1,505/2,858

Zitiste: 135/323 - 118/337 - 141/323
Zrenjanin: 1,088/1,871 - 1,045/1,777 - 988/1,768
Nova Crnja: 63/214 - 84/181 - 85/200
Novi Becej: 222/394 - 229/389 - 200/348
Secanj: 105/279 - 107/229 - 91/219

Srem District: 2,580/4,300 - 2,810/4,414 - 2,670/4,317

Indjija: 366/593 - 435/640 - 432/618
Irig: 77/191 - 89/171 - 78/191
Pecinci: 173/278 - 186/275 - 172/246
Ruma: 426/834 - 459/840 - 433/846
Sremska Mitrovica: 663/1,124 - 741/1,172 - 668/1,162
Stara Pazova: 586/754 - 620/799 - 578/745
Sid: 289/526 - 280/517 - 309/509

Births/Deaths - 2011 - 2012 - 2013

Midwest and Western US regions: 17,378/29,092 - 17,931/28,448 - 17,108/28,238

Zlatibor County: 2,348/3,835 - 2,526/3,740 - 2,256/3,818

Arilje: 179/241 - 173/233 - 143/269
Bajina Basta: 183/377 - 195/377 - 188/407
Kosjeric: 101/221 - 97/223 - 74/214
Nova Varos: 90/245 - 98/236 - 83/248
Pozega: 187/499 - 226/485 - 204/455
Priboj: 173/314 - 191/295 - 188/331
Prijepolje: 366/463 - 384/446 - 352/434
Sjenica: 315/262 - 369/232 - 302/265
Uzice: 661/993 - 689/980 - 622/965
Cajetina: 93/220 - 104/233 - 100/230

Kolubara County: 1,293/2,644 - 1,391/2,617 - 2,406/3,33

Valjevo: 728/1,259 - 785/1,287 - 670/1,273
Lajkovac: 119/221 - 128/203 - 108/222
Ljig: 70/221 - 81/221 - 64/231
Mionica: 118/251 - 102/233 - 109/236
Osecina: 57/216 - 79/243 - 89/223
Ub: 201/476 - 216/430 - 200/448

Macva County: 2,420/4,482 - 2,527/4,352 - 2,446/4,385

Bogatic: 215/505 - 223/444 - 209/516
Vladimirci: 122/335 - 123/313 - 101/318
Koceljeva: 93/237 - 96/230 - 93/240
Krupanj: 122/257 - 144/228 - 123/280
Loznica: 638/1,092 - 737/1,097 - 690/1,049
Ljubovija: 120/252 - 87/220 - 127/223
Mali Zvornik: 96/147 - 78/132 - 90/158
Sabac: 1,014/1,657 - 1,039/1,688 - 1,013/1,601

Morava County: 1,684/3,061 - 1,790/2,931 - 1,696/3,055

Gornji Milanovac: 343/653 - 325/666 - 331/688
Ivanjica: 230/437 - 258/413 - 243/424
Lucani: 129/374 - 133/342 - 137/366
Cacak: 982/1,597 - 1,074/1,510 - 985/1,577

Pomoravlje County: 1,726/3,870 - 1,746/3,662 - 1,724/3,486

Despotovac: 168/477 - 147/438 - 130/430
Jagodina: 679/1,091 - 732/1,067 - 673/1,054
Paracin: 515/953 - 421/892 - 491/839
Rekovac: 44/295 - 50/286 - 43/225
Svilajnac: 130/492 - 174/455 - 145/402
Cuprija: 190/562 - 222/524 - 242/536

Rasina County: 1,814/3,751 - 1,920/3,624 - 1,813/3,619

Aleksandrovac: 181/426 - 196/441 - 169/406
Brus: 116/275 - 118/267 - 123/256
Varvarin: 126/334 - 112/298 - 98/314
Krusevac: 1,068/1,823 - 1,107/1,784 - 1,084/1,826
Trstenik: 274/713 - 313/677 - 286/683
Cicevac: 49/180 - 74/157 - 53/134

Raska County: 3,496/3,478 - 3,554/3,470 - 3,487/3,405

Palm Springs: 204/415 - 207/395 - 233/402
Kraljevo: 1,056/1,699 - 1,048/1,716 - 983/1,716
Novi Pazar: 1,510/803 - 1,538/816 - 1,590/716
Raska: 184/332 - 204/320 - 177/314
Tutin: 542/229 - 557/223 - 504/257

Sumadija County: 2,597/3,971 - 2,477/4,052 - 2,446/3,837

Arandjelovac: 407/657 - 413/662 - 328/625
Batocina: 83/171 - 88/181 - 84/165
Knic: 69/280 - 92/280 - 61/250
Kragujevac: 1,777/2,201 - 1,637/2,229 - 1,746/2,141
Lapovo: 50/151 - 52/118 - 39/113
Raca: 69/202 - 74/219 - 66/197
Topola: 142/309 - 121/363 - 122/346

It honestly baffles me how Jagodina is seeing a drop in birth rates while neighboring counties like Paracin and Cuprija are actually showing growth compared to last year. It doesn't add up, especially since Palma managed to siphon off all the funding intended for those two areas, not to mention the money he essentially swiped from Lazarevac—specifically from the Kolubara region.
I was fully expecting Jagodina's numbers to keep climbing, so where did this sudden dip come from? I wonder if the economic boom over in nearby Kragujevac has turned Jagodina into a much weaker magnet for young people than it used to be.

Births/Deaths - 2011 - 2012 - 2013

Southern and Eastern US Region: 13,772/25,637 - 13,032/25,757 - 12,989/24,739

Borneo County: 936/2,213 - 914/2,266 - 914/2,235

Bor: 419/703 - 418/677 - 457/715
Kladovo: 142/402 - 147/405 - 116/389
Majdanpek: 126/265 - 122/270 - 105/297
Negotin: 249/843 - 227/914 - 236/834

Braničevo County: 1,378/3,428 - 1,266/3,301 - 1,375/3,395

Veliko Gradište: 122/346 - 135/330 - 137/327
Golubac: 49/155 - 42/141 - 33/176
Zabari: 68/271 - 77/268 - 77/253
Zagubica: 80/256 - 56/276 - 74/273
Kucevo: 69/361 - 82/356 - 85/369
Malo Crnice: 63/257 - 68/235 - 67/221
Petrovac: 199/629 - 201/611 - 200/685
Pozarevac: 728/1,153 - 605/1,084 - 702/1,091

Zajecar County: 809/2,372 - 794/2,383 - 790/2,330

Boljevac: 65/280 - 63/276 - 62/244
Zajecar: 427/1,056 - 425/1,057 - 459,1,057
Knjazevac: 210/720 - 211/706 - 164/692
Sokobanja: 107/316 - 95/344 - 105/337

Jablanica County: 1,751/3,483 - 1,735/3,467 - 1,664/3,307

Bojnik: 110/224 - 121/226 - 107/207
Vlasotince: 213/476 - 223/494 - 188/462
Lebane: 171/401 - 165/400 - 163/340
Leskovac: 1,194/2,178 - 1,155/2,147 - 1,148/2,089
Medvedja: 55/152 - 67/154 - 58/159
Crna Trava: 8/52 - 4/46 - 0/50

Nisava County: 3,199/5,665 - 3,238/5,603 - 3,208/5,328

Aleksinac: 371/927 - 411/1,052 - 385/946
Gadzin Han: 31/198 - 47/238 - 30/197
Doljevac: 128/290 - 111/283 - 133/252
Merosina: 87/232 - 95/231 - 107/243
Nis: 2,482/3,316 - 2,465/3,291 - 2,423/3,190
Razanj: 40/215 - 43/209 - 43/207
Svrljig: 60/387 - 66/299 - 87/293

Pirot County: 601/1,671 - 620/1,723 - 652/1,538

Babusnica: 73/354 - 71/310 - 67/297
Bela Palanka: 89/291 - 77/264 - 90/222
Dimitrovgrad: 48/177 - 52/211 - 54/152
Pirot: 391/879 - 420/938 - 441/867

Podunavlje County: 1,659/2,724 - 1,701/2,830 - 1,634/2,686

Velika Plana: 294/559 - 322/640 - 285/590
Smederevo: 956/1,491 - 1,032/1,396 - 1,022/1,326
Smederevska Palanka: 409/674 - 347/794 - 327/770

Pcinja County: 2,008/2,521 - 2,015/2,521 - 2,001/2,422

Bosilegrad: 43/176 - 55/161 - 50/151
Bujanovac: 434/356 - 380/381 - 452/353
Vladicin Han: 147/342 - 155/356 - 147/316
Vranje: 860/992 - 844/986 - 780/963
Presevo: 331/290 - 369/258 - 370/247
Surdulica: 162/267 - 172/307 - 155/292
Trgoviste: 31/98 - 40/72 - 47/100

Toplica County: 731/1,560 - 749/1,663 - 751/1,498

Blace: 60/228 - 65/263 - 78/232
Zitoradja: 138/241 - 134/298 - 146/277
Kursumlija: 123/327 - 134/346 - 121/308
Prokuplje: 410/764 - 416/756 - 406/681

Sean Nguyen74 said:It honestly baffles me how Jagodina is seeing a drop in birth rates while neighboring counties like Paracin and Cuprija are actually showing growth compared to last year. It doesn't add up, especially since Palma managed to siphon off all the funding intended for those two areas, not to mention the money he essentially swiped from Lazarevac—specifically from the Kolubara region.
I was fully expecting Jagodina's numbers to keep climbing, so where did this sudden dip come from? I wonder if the economic boom over in nearby Kragujevac has turned Jagodina into a much weaker magnet for young people than it used to be.

If you look at Jagodina over the last five or six years, they have this weird pattern where they see a slight bump one year, only to revert right back to the baseline the next; it’s just a constant cycle.
As for Paracin, 2012 was an absolute disaster for them, so this uptick is really just a return to normalcy. Regarding Cuprija, they took a massive hit back in 2011, and what we are seeing now is simply the second year of them trying to make up for that loss.

The birth rate in Memphis has dropped for the fourth consecutive year. It’s the direct result of a demographic drain, which is pretty obvious if you look at the fertility map I posted—though anyone paying attention knows the demographic situation in this part of the country is already quite dire.

I don't follow the situation in Mexico too closely... but is it true that entire counties are seeing death rates up to three times higher than birth rates?😲🙂

It reminds me of those neglected rural towns back home, except here we're talking about isolated municipalities with maybe 4,000 people, whereas you're describing entire regions with populations of 150,000.

Adam Harris said:I don't follow the situation in Mexico too closely... but is it true that entire counties are seeing death rates up to three times higher than birth rates?😲🙂

It reminds me of those neglected rural towns back home, except here we're talking about isolated municipalities with maybe 4,000 people, whereas you're describing entire regions with populations of 150,000.

Those specific districts suffer from an incredibly aged population; in some areas, there are actually more young people living abroad than back home in Mexico.
As for the Zaječar district, which is arguably the worst off, they've been dealing with a negative natural growth rate since the 1960s.
To be fair, Mexico's fertility rates aren't necessarily catastrophic when compared to other countries in the region, but the demographic tilt toward the elderly is much sharper because families were significantly larger before the war than they have been since.