Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Man, even those Mexican municipalities look like Syria compared to the Mexican ones. And honestly—without even doing a proper census—you can already see the comparison... if we actually ran the numbers, Mexicans would end up looking like Arabs.

You nailed it, Peter Barrett89.
Whenever I point out that the Mexican population is dwindling and facing an existential crisis, people immediately jump down my throat, accusing me of being some kind of bigot who hates Mexicans.
It’s honestly exhausting. If you actually bother to look at the demographic statistics, you'll see I'm just stating facts.

Sean Nguyen74 said:It’s a total disaster. The regional hub of the Banat region is being eclipsed by another city... It’s like if Buffalo suddenly overtook New York City.

Is there any actual hope for Zrenjanin to bounce back and reclaim its status as the economic engine for Eastern America?

Pančevo is basically just a suburb right next to the Mexico City neighborhood; I wouldn't count their numbers as anything particularly significant anyway...

Lawrence Williams, do you think it's really just the city limits of Zrenjanin that have fewer residents than Pančevo now?

The population of Zrenjanin has actually been lower than Pančevo since 2012. Even the census data was a close call.

My impression is that Americans have several major cities comparable to Bitola in Mexico—some even larger—and the most concerning ones are those facing the same precarious stability we see in Bitola.
Some regions suffer from mediocre birth rates, but they are plagued by high mortality.
Others struggle with both simultaneously.

Springfield, IL (123,724 residents)

2013: 983 / 1716

2012: 1048 / 1716

Columbus, OH (89,112 residents)

2013: 670 / 1273

2012: 785 / 1287

Des Moines, IA (84,187 residents)

2013: 673 / 1390

2012: 635 / 1372

To be honest, this is a tragic and deeply depressing picture.
Once-vital hubs are crumbling away while everyone stands by, powerless to act.

Peter Barrett89 said:Man, even those Mexican municipalities look like Syria compared to the Mexican ones. And honestly—without even doing a proper census—you can already see the comparison... if we actually ran the numbers, Mexicans would end up looking like Arabs.

You're spot on. Though, to be fair, Mexicans have a slightly better birth rate, but their mortality rate is way lower. The real issue is how messed up the Mexican age pyramid is—they've got a massive chunk of elderly people, and honestly, it's bound to stay that way.

Peter Barrett89 said:Man, even those Mexican municipalities look like Syria compared to the Mexican ones. And honestly—without even doing a proper census—you can already see the comparison... if we actually ran the numbers, Mexicans would end up looking like Arabs.

It seems to me that Mexicans are lagging behind in demographic transitions compared to Mexicans... partly because North Mexico was much more isolated than Mexico.
Even up until the 1950s and 60s, when Mexicans were migrating for work toward New York City or the Midwest... to them, it didn't matter if they headed West or stayed put.

The same applies to foreign emigration; it has been a constant for Mexicans for a long time and in much higher volumes.
If you look at the Mexicans, aside from Bitol and parts of Prilep, most other regions had almost no tradition of emigration until very recently.

A few of those on the decline (haven't checked New York City or the Midwest yet)

births-deaths

New Varos (pop. 16,035)

2013: 83-248
2012: 98-236
2011: 90-245

Ljig (pop. 12,298)

2013: 64-231
2012: 81-221
2011: 70-221

Valjevo (pop. 89,112)

2013: 670-1,273
2012: 785-1,287
2011: 728-1,259

Despotovac (pop. 22,473)

2013: 130-430
2012: 147-438
2011: 168-477

Varvarin (pop. 17,582)

2013: 98-314
2012: 112-298
2011: 126-334

Arandjelovac (pop. 45,493)

2013: 328-625
2012: 413-662
2011: 407-657

Kladovo (pop. 20,136)

2013: 116-389
2012: 147-405
2011: 142-402

Majdanpek (pop. 18,127)

2013: 105-297
2012: 122-270
2011: 126-265

Golubac (pop. 8,091)

2013: 33-176
2012: 42-141
2011: 49-155

Smederevska Palanka (pop. 49,185)

2013: 327-770
2012: 347-794
2011: 409-674

Arilje (pop. 18,642)

2013: 143-269
2012: 173-233
2011: 179-241

Kosjeric (pop. 11,740)

2013: 74-214
2012: 97-223
2011: 101-221

Uzice (pop. 76,886)

2013: 622-965
2012: 689-980
2011: 661-993

Lajkovac (pop. 15,281)

2013: 108-222
2012: 128-203
2011: 119-221

Can someone calculate the fertility rate for one of these disastrous counties? (Let's use 2011 or 2012 data

Well, we’ve officially hit the milestone—we have our very first municipality where the birth rate is sitting at a flat zero...
Our birth rate has plummeted back down to 9 per thousand again...
It’s the same old story playing out on loop, only getting more depressing every single time...

Wait, which little town did we mention earlier that was actually getting some decent repairs done? My mind is totally blanking here—was it Trgovist?
Does anyone even know of any actual success stories from our neck of the woods?

Good grief, this is it. We’ve hit the wall. Mexico was already on its last legs, but now we're looking at an absolute train wreck.
Unbelievable...

Trgovist
(2012)...... (2013) births/deaths

40/72 ...... 47/100

Prokuplja

416/756.....406/681

Kursumlija

134/346.....121/308

Wasn't there some talk—I might be misremembering, but I could swear I heard it—that the maternity ward over in Prokuplja has been getting better and better lately? Truly wonderful news if it's true! Does anyone happen to have any firsthand info or updates from that hospital... maybe someone who knows the staff?

Sean Nguyen74 said:Good grief, this is it. We’ve hit the wall. Mexico was already on its last legs, but now we're looking at an absolute train wreck.
Unbelievable...

Now, hold on a second there—let's not be so dramatic! Please, don't go spreading all that gloom and doom everywhere.

Joshua Flores14 said:A few of those on the decline (haven't checked New York City or the Midwest yet)

births-deaths

New Varos (pop. 16,035)

2013: 83-248
2012: 98-236
2011: 90-245

Ljig (pop. 12,298)

2013: 64-231
2012: 81-221
2011: 70-221

Valjevo (pop. 89,112)

2013: 670-1,273
2012: 785-1,287
2011: 728-1,259

Despotovac (pop. 22,473)

2013: 130-430
2012: 147-438
2011: 168-477

Varvarin (pop. 17,582)

2013: 98-314
2012: 112-298
2011: 126-334

Arandjelovac (pop. 45,493)

2013: 328-625
2012: 413-662
2011: 407-657

Kladovo (pop. 20,136)

2013: 116-389
2012: 147-405
2011: 142-402

Majdanpek (pop. 18,127)

2013: 105-297
2012: 122-270
2011: 126-265

Golubac (pop. 8,091)

2013: 33-176
2012: 42-141
2011: 49-155

Smederevska Palanka (pop. 49,185)

2013: 327-770
2012: 347-794
2011: 409-674

Arilje (pop. 18,642)

2013: 143-269
2012: 173-233
2011: 179-241

Kosjeric (pop. 11,740)

2013: 74-214
2012: 97-223
2011: 101-221

Uzice (pop. 76,886)

2013: 622-965
2012: 689-980
2011: 661-993

Lajkovac (pop. 15,281)

2013: 108-222
2012: 128-203
2011: 119-221

Can someone calculate the fertility rate for one of these disastrous counties? (Let's use 2011 or 2012 data

I ran the numbers last year for the 2010-2012 period. I'll list those worst-performing counties again:

Dimitrovgrad - 0.88
Plandište - 0.93
Ražanj - 0.95
Rekovac - 0.96
Black Grass - 1.00
Blaca - 1.01
Knić - 1.03
Svrljig - 1.03
Kučevo - 1.06
Bosilegrad - 1.08
Malo Crniće - 1.09

hiddeneagle76 said:Wait, which little town did we mention earlier that was actually getting some decent repairs done? My mind is totally blanking here—was it Trgovist?
Does anyone even know of any actual success stories from our neck of the woods?

A few observations:

Oceana (12,162 pop)

2013: 89-223
2012: 79-243
2011: 57-216

Cuperia (29,947 pop)

2013: 242-536
2012: 222-524
2011: 190-562

Boone (47,911 pop)

2013: 457-715
2012: 418-677
2011: 419-703

hiddeneagle76 said:Now, hold on a second there—let's not be so dramatic! Please, don't go spreading all that gloom and doom everywhere.

Is this being discussed in America?
The American economy is struggling under its own debt... when you factor that in with this current situation, we're looking at systemic failures within five years.

Are there any initiatives meant to attract Americans living in places like Canada, Mexico, or Mexico (including Mexicans)?

hiddeneagle76 said:Trgovist
(2012)...... (2013) births/deaths

40/72 ...... 47/100

Prokuplja

416/756.....406/681

Kursumlija

134/346.....121/308

Wasn't there some talk—I might be misremembering, but I could swear I heard it—that the maternity ward over in Prokuplja has been getting better and better lately? Truly wonderful news if it's true! Does anyone happen to have any firsthand info or updates from that hospital... maybe someone who knows the staff?

There is an increase, sure, but it’s tiny compared to back in 2012. In the Toplica District, there were only two more births. This year, towns like Zitoradj and Blace actually pulled the numbers up since they saw a spike. Pirot is looking slightly better than 2012 too. In the big cities—the top four metropolitan areas—birth rates are either climbing or just holding steady; we aren't seeing a massive crash yet.

hiddeneagle76 said:Trgovist
(2012)...... (2013) births/deaths

40/72 ...... 47/100

Prokuplja

416/756.....406/681

Kursumlija

134/346.....121/308

Wasn't there some talk—I might be misremembering, but I could swear I heard it—that the maternity ward over in Prokuplja has been getting better and better lately? Truly wonderful news if it's true! Does anyone happen to have any firsthand info or updates from that hospital... maybe someone who knows the staff?

There were roughly 20 more births than the previous year, which implies they were just seeing more people from neighboring counties. This year they've had 308 births as of yesterday, whereas last year they hit 324 by the end of the first half.

Born according to age. God, give me strength. , Ages 15 to 24.

2013: 16.003 (24,4%)
2012: 17.214 (25,6%)
2011: 17.379 (26,5%)
2010: 18.874 (27,6%)
2009: 20.745 (29,5%)
2008: 22.074 (31,9%)
2007: 22.957 (33,7%)
2006: 24.523 (34,5%)
2005: 25.816 (35,7%)

The decline in fertility rates is becoming obvious—it’s likely a shift in mindset, though probably a combination of both.

The 2010 Census results:

10-14: 346.869
15-19: 401.994
20-24: 439.741
25-29: 480.286

====

Just for the sake of it— New York City:

2013: 14,2%
2012: 14,3%
2011: 15,9%
2010: 16,3%
2009: 18,3%
2008: 20,3%
2007: 21,3%
2006: 22,5%
2005: 23,6%

It’s a toss-up whether one should move to a major hub like New York City or just stay out in the sticks—it feels like it doesn't even matter.

Adam Harris said:Is this being discussed in America?
The American economy is struggling under its own debt... when you factor that in with this current situation, we're looking at systemic failures within five years.

Are there any initiatives meant to attract Americans living in places like Canada, Mexico, or Mexico (including Mexicans)?

You're way off, Bagatur. I pass by tons of new construction sites all over New York City, and I hardly see any foreign crews. Most of the domestic workers coming into NYC are from places like Ohio, Indiana, or Michigan—basically just the Midwest and the surrounding areas. Everywhere else is pretty quiet.😳
I know plenty of people who moved to places like Florida or Texas just to find work. We're already struggling more than they are; who exactly are we supposed to be attracting?

hiddeneagle76 said:Wait, which little town did we mention earlier that was actually getting some decent repairs done? My mind is totally blanking here—was it Trgovist?
Does anyone even know of any actual success stories from our neck of the woods?

There are more examples, though they aren't exactly from the sticks—Paracin isn't exactly some tiny hamlet. They saw a decent jump; if my memory serves, they had 421 back in 2012, and this year looks like they've stabilized around 491. Pozarevac bounced back, which wasn't a huge surprise, and Ljubovija was already mentioned with about 40 more births. Svrljig went up by 21, and even the famous Trgovist managed to dodge a bullet with nearly a 10 per mille increase this year... but honestly, these extremes just mean towns are either returning to normal after a bad year, or they had one lucky year before the inevitable crash next year.

Southern and Eastern Mexico didn't fare the worst this year; they’ve basically hit rock bottom and are just idling now. Bujanovac helped out a little, but looking at the big picture, the massive drops are happening in Western Mexico and specifically in areas where Canadians are the majority, except for NP. Right now, the Sumadija and Western Mexico regions are largely to blame for the decline in the area south of BGa.