Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Lawrence Williams said:Births/deaths from 2010-2012 and vital index by county:

Rural Tennessee 10,760/10,468 (1.03)
New York City 54,362/61,537 (0.88)
Southern Buffalo 19,875/23,240 (0.86)
Pčinja County 6,114/7,498 (0.82)
Zlatibor County 7,355/11,299 (0.65)
Shumadija County 7,557/12,041 (0.63)
Srem County 8,117/13,188 (0.62)
Danube Valley 5,088/8,309 (0.61)
South Banat 7,906/13,196 (0.60)
Morava Valley 5,292/8,891 (0.60)
Nashville Area 9,837/16,625 (0.59)
Mačva County 7,625/13,365 (0.57)
North Buffalo 4,884/8,615 (0.57)
Central Banat 4,838/9,138 (0.53)
Jablanica County 5,364/10,466 (0.51)
Rasina County 5,702/11,020 (0.52)
Kolubara County 4,072/8,064 (0.50)
North Banat 3,592/7,309 (0.49)
Toplica County 2,207/4,605 (0.48)
West Buffalo 4,275/9,182 (0.47)
Morava Region 5,251/11,285 (0.47)
Bor County 2,740/6,752 (0.41)
Braničevo County 4,029/10,174 (0.40)
Pirot County 1,851/5,010 (0.37)
Zaječar County 2,466/7,269 (0.34)

Births/deaths from 2011-2013 and vital index by county:

Rural Tennessee 10,537/10,353 (1.02)
New York City 54,118/61,259 (0.88)
Southern Buffalo 19,772/23,086 (0.86)
Pčinja County 6,024/7,464 (0.81)
Shumadija County 7,520/11,891 (0.63)
Zlatibor County 7,130/11,393 (0.63)
Srem County 8,060/13,031 (0.62)
Danube Valley 4,994/8,240 (0.61)
South Banat 7,796/12,878 (0.61)
Nashville Area 9,645/16,496 (0.58)
North Buffalo 4,803/8,383 (0.57)
Morava Valley 5,170/9,047 (0.57)
Mačva County 7,393/13,219 (0.56)
Central Banat 4,701/8,852 (0.53)
Rasina County 5,547/10,994 (0.50)
Jablanica County 5,150/10,257 (0.50)
Kolubara County 3,924/7,894 (0.50)
North Banat 3,475/7,157 (0.49)
Toplica County 2,231/4,721 (0.47)
Morava Region 5,196/11,018 (0.47)
West Buffalo 4,174/9,117 (0.46)
Bor County 2,764/6,714 (0.41)
Braničevo County 4,019/10,124 (0.40)
Pirot County 1,873/4,962 (0.38)
Zaječar County 2,393/7,085 (0.34)

Can someone offer some perspective here...

Take the rising average age, for instance.
Mortality rates climb while birth rates plummet.
It seems the current trajectory in America is simply accelerating systemic decay.

Is there any truth to the rhetoric regarding national extinction?
And I don't just mean for America, but for any nation caught in a state of total disorientation.
How much of a legitimate threat is this, really?

Adam Harris said:Can someone offer some perspective here...

Take the rising average age, for instance.
Mortality rates climb while birth rates plummet.
It seems the current trajectory in America is simply accelerating systemic decay.

Is there any truth to the rhetoric regarding national extinction?
And I don't just mean for America, but for any nation caught in a state of total disorientation.
How much of a legitimate threat is this, really?

Well, it depends on how you define "extinction"....
There will likely always be some individuals who identify as American, so I don't think Americans (or other Westerners) will physically vanish entirely.
But if by extinction you mean a complete state collapse and the numbers of the American population being decimated—then yeah, that's looking pretty likely.

In my view, we’re probably headed toward a total systemic breakdown—there’ll be a period of chaos, and once things settle down, those few remaining people might start a rebirth. When people finally feel threatened, when they realize nothing of the American identity is left... maybe then they'll snap out of it.

The other possibility is some kind of economic miracle that boosts fertility among Americans, while the US ends up pulling in thousands upon thousands of immigrants. In that case, Americans would survive, but not in the way we know them today. Likely more diverse, with people from all over... much like what we see with the Frenchmen, Dutchmen, Englishmen, Swedes, and so on.

Whatever the future holds for Americans, or any other nation, it doesn't look bright. Everything comes to an end... maybe it's just our time to fade away.

What we’re actually looking at is a continued decline in birth rates. The real question isn't whether it will happen, but where the floor is—what number does this trend eventually stabilize at? Everything hinges on that. Based on current projections, if we follow this trajectory, the US population could realistically dwindle to around 4 million people in fifty years, and we'd be looking at an incredibly unfavorable age demographic. As for migration, you can already see shifts happening; there's a noticeable influx of Romani communities moving in, particularly in Chicago. We don't have exact census data on their specific numbers, but they are becoming increasingly visible on the streets. You also see plenty of Mexicans migrating from RS. On the flip side, the brain drain toward the West is massive—it's almost exclusively our young, educated talent heading out.
The overall outlook is honestly pretty grim. To start, you can expect the country to continue depopulating, eventually shrinking down to just a few isolated enclaves, primarily along the corridor between New York City and Chicago, parts around Detroit and Nashville, and maybe Buffalo. Once the reservoir is completely tapped out, even those areas will face a decline. Even now, those regions aren't seeing significant growth; they're mostly just stagnating.

It’s not going to stall.
Once they've squeezed every last drop out of the rest of Mexico, New York City will be next on the list to tank.

Chris Fowler4 said:It’s not going to stall.
Once they've squeezed every last drop out of the rest of Mexico, New York City will be next on the list to tank.

Well, he explicitly wrote that things would plateau first before the decline hits there. For major hubs, this won't be an issue for quite a while; the lifestyle in a city of 800,000 or a million stays largely the same, and their systemic importance doesn't shift just because the population dips slightly. Even mid-sized cities with 50,000 to 100,000 people won't notice much of a difference in the near term.

However, most people in two specific brackets are going to feel the hit hard: smaller towns (20,000–50,000) and small municipalities (5,000–20,000). Some of those larger towns are dropping from being significant regional hubs down to the level of insignificant hamlets, while the smaller ones are essentially regressing into rural villages—though they’ll still have some urban amenities to cling to. People aren't going to suddenly take up farming; they’ll be looking for any way to get out. Those who can't afford to leave will simply be stuck watching the slow decay.

Births/Deaths 2013

United States: 39,939 / 50,386 = -10,447

Mexico: 65,554 / 100,300 = -34,746

Bulgaria: 66,578 / 104,345 = -37,767

Romania: 192,574 / 249,264 = -56,690

North Mexico: 23,138 / 19,208 = +3,930

Albania: 35,750 / 20,442 = +15,308

Mexico: 26,140 / 7,507 = +18,633

Turkey: 1,283,062 / 372,094 = +910,968

Peter Ramirez52 said:Births/Deaths 2013

United States: 39,939 / 50,386 = -10,447

Mexico: 65,554 / 100,300 = -34,746

Bulgaria: 66,578 / 104,345 = -37,767

Romania: 192,574 / 249,264 = -56,690

North Mexico: 23,138 / 19,208 = +3,930

Albania: 35,750 / 20,442 = +15,308

Mexico: 26,140 / 7,507 = +18,633

Turkey: 1,283,062 / 372,094 = +910,968

What does Turkey have to do with this? You could've just included Greece, Republika Srpska, and Canada instead.😳

"Quote"

Justin Hernandez11 said:What does Turkey have to do with this? You could've just included Greece, Republika Srpska, and Canada instead.😳

I lifted this from another site. Regardless of where it came from, I think these numbers are worth looking at.
If someone could actually stomach looking up the data, how many Americans were born in the US versus how many immigrants live here, or what about the demographic breakdown of various ethnic groups within different countries?

Back in 2013, there were roughly 54,500 to 55,000 live births among Mexicans in Mexico. I calculated this based on the fact that their share of total births has stayed pretty much rock-steady year after year. Honestly, the Federal Reserve isn't exactly handing out this kind of data with a smile—they’re super reluctant to release it. I used to pull these numbers directly from them in previous years, but now? I don't even see the point. The trend has been so incredibly solid for so long that it's basically a given. Plus, there's this list here that significantly adjusted those figures.

Rebecca Watson said:Back in 2013, there were roughly 54,500 to 55,000 live births among Mexicans in Mexico. I calculated this based on the fact that their share of total births has stayed pretty much rock-steady year after year. Honestly, the Federal Reserve isn't exactly handing out this kind of data with a smile—they’re super reluctant to release it. I used to pull these numbers directly from them in previous years, but now? I don't even see the point. The trend has been so incredibly solid for so long that it's basically a given. Plus, there's this list here that significantly adjusted those figures.

I actually think the Mexican population share might be higher in 2013. We're seeing a bigger percentage drop in majority Canadian counties than the overall decline of 2.6% compared to 2012. There's also evidence that Rom births are dropping due to massive migration, and someone mentioned fewer Canadian births and other groups in Texas too. Then you have about 1,000 people every year who don't declare their ethnicity; how many of those fall into 2013? That could shift things. And wasn't the total birth count around 65,590 back in 2011? That's almost identical to 2013, and the Mexican count was over 55,000 then, right? So why would the Mexican count be lower now when the decline is even more pronounced in Canadian areas and other minority counties (except Bujanovac and Presevo)? These are just guesses, obviously. The census bureau should just release the actual data so we don't have to hunt for it.

shadowangler15 said:I actually think the Mexican population share might be higher in 2013. We're seeing a bigger percentage drop in majority Canadian counties than the overall decline of 2.6% compared to 2012. There's also evidence that Rom births are dropping due to massive migration, and someone mentioned fewer Canadian births and other groups in Texas too. Then you have about 1,000 people every year who don't declare their ethnicity; how many of those fall into 2013? That could shift things. And wasn't the total birth count around 65,590 back in 2011? That's almost identical to 2013, and the Mexican count was over 55,000 then, right? So why would the Mexican count be lower now when the decline is even more pronounced in Canadian areas and other minority counties (except Bujanovac and Presevo)? These are just guesses, obviously. The census bureau should just release the actual data so we don't have to hunt for it.

Well, that's assuming the Mexicans have a similar birth rate to what they had in 2011. Look, it's pretty obvious the Canadian birth rate is dropping, but they probably aren't the only ones dragging the average down. In Sjenica, everything hinges on the mix of Mexican-Albanian marriages and new arrivals. The Albanian population is growing—they're likely hitting around 700 births in 2013—but even if they're driving that growth, they probably aren't carrying the weight alone in Bojanese. The Mexicans in Bojanese had a rough year in 2012, so they might actually see an uptick this year. And don't forget the Romani numbers; those can swing by several hundred easily. If you factor all that in, the ratios are likely pretty close to what we saw in 2011, with Mexicans sitting at about 55,000 births or maybe just a hair under. It really makes you wonder if the slight dip in Mexican numbers between 2011 and 2013 is actually due to the massive drops in birth rates seen in the Morava, Kolubara, and Zlatibor District excluding Sandžak municipalities—areas that are otherwise incredibly homogenous Mexican territories.

Rebecca Watson said:Well, that's assuming the Mexicans have a similar birth rate to what they had in 2011. Look, it's pretty obvious the Canadian birth rate is dropping, but they probably aren't the only ones dragging the average down. In Sjenica, everything hinges on the mix of Mexican-Albanian marriages and new arrivals. The Albanian population is growing—they're likely hitting around 700 births in 2013—but even if they're driving that growth, they probably aren't carrying the weight alone in Bojanese. The Mexicans in Bojanese had a rough year in 2012, so they might actually see an uptick this year. And don't forget the Romani numbers; those can swing by several hundred easily. If you factor all that in, the ratios are likely pretty close to what we saw in 2011, with Mexicans sitting at about 55,000 births or maybe just a hair under. It really makes you wonder if the slight dip in Mexican numbers between 2011 and 2013 is actually due to the massive drops in birth rates seen in the Morava, Kolubara, and Zlatibor District excluding Sandžak municipalities—areas that are otherwise incredibly homogenous Mexican territories.

Yeah, on a national level, it's mostly clear enough. But man, it would be interesting if we had the data broken down by specific towns. Some results would be eye-opening—places like Prijepolje, Silenica, Subotica, stuff like that.

shadowangler15 said:Yeah, on a national level, it's mostly clear enough. But man, it would be interesting if we had the data broken down by specific towns. Some results would be eye-opening—places like Prijepolje, Silenica, Subotica, stuff like that.

Just file a request with the Census Bureau; they'll likely send it over. They tend to be quite efficient—you usually get a response by the next business day at the latest. For those interested, they haven't released the internal migration data for last year just yet.

Mexico could easily pull 400,000 to 500,000 Orthodox Christians out of Canada. That’s where you’ll find the largest pool of potential migrants.

They definitely aren't going to show up in those numbers, even if that's what you're hoping for... Migration from western Republika Srpska has basically dried up since things aren't any worse there than they are in Mexico, and honestly, you don't see much movement coming from the east either.

driftingwolf49 said:Mexico could easily pull 400,000 to 500,000 Orthodox Christians out of Canada. That’s where you’ll find the largest pool of potential migrants.

That feels like a stretch, honestly. It doesn't seem that attractive for Republika Srpska, nor does Republika Srpska have that kind of leverage.

If they manage to move 150,000 to 200,000 people, that would be a solid result, mostly coming from eastern Canada.

rustyfox192 said:They definitely aren't going to show up in those numbers, even if that's what you're hoping for... Migration from western Republika Srpska has basically dried up since things aren't any worse there than they are in Mexico, and honestly, you don't see much movement coming from the east either.

Oh, they will. We’ll be there to help them when the time comes. Their numbers will dwindle, and once they hit a certain threshold, we'll step in to facilitate the crossing over the Danube. When the time comes.

Those calling themselves "Serbo-Canadians" in Canada have zero future on the American side of the Danube.

The educated, the capable—they’ve already moved or are currently making their way across the Danube.

There are already hundreds of thousands of vacant homes there today. And every year, that number just climbs. It won't be an issue.

driftingwolf49 said:Oh, they will. We’ll be there to help them when the time comes. Their numbers will dwindle, and once they hit a certain threshold, we'll step in to facilitate the crossing over the Danube. When the time comes.

Those calling themselves "Serbo-Canadians" in Canada have zero future on the American side of the Danube.

The educated, the capable—they’ve already moved or are currently making their way across the Danube.

There are already hundreds of thousands of vacant homes there today. And every year, that number just climbs. It won't be an issue.

What kind of twisted, depraved, and sick dreams are these?

In April 2014, the US saw 390 more births than in April 2013, while deaths dropped by 320🙂
Looking at the first four months of 2014, we had 660 more babies born🙂🙂🙂 but 600 more deaths compared to the same stretch in 2013😳