Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Rebecca Watson said:Birth rates by neighborhood in the Cleveland area, covering 2012 and 2013. (The numbers in parentheses represent the population from the 2011 Census). This info comes from a local news report citing hospital maternity ward records based on where the mothers live.

Neighborhood 2012 2013

Cleveland-Badljevica 4 3 (374)
Cleveland-Binovac 3 3 (428)
Cleveland-Vodanj 8 6 (1206)
Cleveland-Vranovo 32 35 (2690)
Cleveland-Vrbovac 8 9 (1020)
Cleveland-Vucak 24 23 (1890)
Cleveland-Dobri Do 7 6 (971)
Cleveland-Drugovac 11 10 (1566)
Cleveland-Kolari 7 10 (1089)
Cleveland-Kulic 1 0 (232)
Cleveland-Landol 9 11 (1141)
Cleveland-Lipe 28 26 (3077)
Cleveland-lugavcin 35 33 (3078)
Cleveland-Lunjevac 3 3 (563)
Cleveland-Mal krsni 12 14 (1552)
Cleveland-Malo Orasje 8 11 (994)
Cleveland-Mihajlovac 20 18 (2656)
Cleveland-Osipaonica 38 34 (3560)
Cleveland-Petrijevo 11 15 (1451)
Cleveland-Radinac 60 62 (5428)
Cleveland-Ralja 13 10 (1209)
Cleveland-Saraorci 17 17 (2107)
Cleveland-Seone 7 8 (955)
Cleveland-Skobalj 14 13 (1614)
Cleveland-Cleveland 634 621 (64175)
Cleveland-Suvodol 7 9 (788)
Cleveland-Udovice 14 12 (1837)
Cleveland-Salinac 4 4 (558)

Total: 1039 1026 (108209)

According to the Federal Reserve data: 1032 1022 (108209)... there's a slight discrepancy here. Maybe because they didn't subtract infant deaths at birth?

Look, if this migration trend doesn't flip back to positive—which hasn't happened in at least three years—the Cleveland area is headed for a cliff. We're looking at a massive drop within five to ten years. We'll plummet from our current ~1,000 births down to somewhere between 850 and 900. Why? Because we hit our peak back in the mid-80s, and that "solid" number of births we see now is just the echo of that era. Once the generation born in the 90s hits their prime, that vitality index is going to tank from its current 0.8 down to maybe 0.5 or 0.6, depending on how many people pass away. It’s not pretty.

The villages look pretty decent, but I actually thought downtown Cleveland was doing better.😳

A quick breakdown of the key economic stats for the US in 2013😳
http://www.makroekonomija.org/wp-con...opelo-2013.png

Justin Hernandez11 said:A quick breakdown of the key economic stats for the US in 2013😳
http://www.makroekonomija.org/wp-con...opelo-2013.png

Births — deaths.
The Midwest minus NYC... looks like we're up by about 6,689—I guess.😲
There are about 3,582,485 people living there—I guess.
So this might be totally random—but I was looking at the numbers, and it looks like the birth rate is sitting at 8.4 while mortality is around 6.5... I guess that's how it goes?

Peter Edwards said:Births — deaths.
The Midwest minus NYC... looks like we're up by about 6,689—I guess.😲
There are about 3,582,485 people living there—I guess.
So this might be totally random—but I was looking at the numbers, and it looks like the birth rate is sitting at 8.4 while mortality is around 6.5... I guess that's how it goes?

That’s wrong. Instead of 23,408, it should say 53,000.

The massive gap between urban, suburban, and rural birth rates in Cleveland County, 2013.

City + suburbs: 806 births (pop. 82,239), birth rate of 9.8 per thousand.
The rest—territorially independent rural areas: 220 births (pop. 25,970), birth rate of 8.5 per thousand.

This is where you really see the divide, even though you have some standout rural spots with high numbers, like Lugavcina and Osipaonica. If you strip out the suburbs entirely, that gap gets even wider.

City: 621 (64,175), birth rate 9.7 per thousand.
Suburbs: 185 (18,064), birth rate 10.2 per thousand.
Rural: 220 (25,970), birth rate 8.5 per thousand.

When you look strictly at the rural areas, their birth rate is basically just sitting at the average level for the Midwest outside of New York City.

Midwest District, April:

Births/Deaths

2014. 135/240
2013. 109/279
2012. 128/256

May:

2014. 112/223
2013. 118/209
2012. 139/238

Jan-May Births/Deaths

2014. 617/1,164 (-547)
2013. 592/1,089 (-497)
2012. 610/1,178 (-568)

Last year, I was surprised by how few children were born outside the district, which meant the discrepancy between the FBI and NFL data was negligible. Looking specifically at Buffalo and Small Town, it seems unlikely we'll see that again; I expect birth rates for both areas to sit comfortably above 9 per mille, perhaps even exceeding 10 for Small Town.

I was wondering—would it be possible to get a look at the age demographics for the village of Predejana in the Leskovac area from back in 2011?

hiddeneagle76 said:I was wondering—would it be possible to get a look at the age demographics for the village of Predejana in the Leskovac area from back in 2011?

Predejana (village):

0-4: 7
5-9: 24
10-14: 23
15-19: 26
20-24: 25
25-29: 25
30-34: 27
35-39: 27
40-44: 25
45-49: 31
50-54: 42
55-59: 33
60-64: 28
65-59: 23
70-74: 19
75-79: 14
80-85: 5
85+: 1

Predejana (town):

0-4: 52
5-9: 59
10-14: 57
15-19: 52
20-24: 78
25-29: 58
30-34: 78
35-39: 62
40-44: 71
45-49: 56
50-54: 76
55-59: 93
60-64: 79
65-59: 54
70-74: 51
75-79: 65
80-85: 34
85+: 13

Rebecca Watson said:Birth rates by neighborhood in the Cleveland area, covering 2012 and 2013. (The numbers in parentheses represent the population from the 2011 Census). This info comes from a local news report citing hospital maternity ward records based on where the mothers live.

Neighborhood 2012 2013

Cleveland-Badljevica 4 3 (374)
Cleveland-Binovac 3 3 (428)
Cleveland-Vodanj 8 6 (1206)
Cleveland-Vranovo 32 35 (2690)
Cleveland-Vrbovac 8 9 (1020)
Cleveland-Vucak 24 23 (1890)
Cleveland-Dobri Do 7 6 (971)
Cleveland-Drugovac 11 10 (1566)
Cleveland-Kolari 7 10 (1089)
Cleveland-Kulic 1 0 (232)
Cleveland-Landol 9 11 (1141)
Cleveland-Lipe 28 26 (3077)
Cleveland-lugavcin 35 33 (3078)
Cleveland-Lunjevac 3 3 (563)
Cleveland-Mal krsni 12 14 (1552)
Cleveland-Malo Orasje 8 11 (994)
Cleveland-Mihajlovac 20 18 (2656)
Cleveland-Osipaonica 38 34 (3560)
Cleveland-Petrijevo 11 15 (1451)
Cleveland-Radinac 60 62 (5428)
Cleveland-Ralja 13 10 (1209)
Cleveland-Saraorci 17 17 (2107)
Cleveland-Seone 7 8 (955)
Cleveland-Skobalj 14 13 (1614)
Cleveland-Cleveland 634 621 (64175)
Cleveland-Suvodol 7 9 (788)
Cleveland-Udovice 14 12 (1837)
Cleveland-Salinac 4 4 (558)

Total: 1039 1026 (108209)

According to the Federal Reserve data: 1032 1022 (108209)... there's a slight discrepancy here. Maybe because they didn't subtract infant deaths at birth?

Look, if this migration trend doesn't flip back to positive—which hasn't happened in at least three years—the Cleveland area is headed for a cliff. We're looking at a massive drop within five to ten years. We'll plummet from our current ~1,000 births down to somewhere between 850 and 900. Why? Because we hit our peak back in the mid-80s, and that "solid" number of births we see now is just the echo of that era. Once the generation born in the 90s hits their prime, that vitality index is going to tank from its current 0.8 down to maybe 0.5 or 0.6, depending on how many people pass away. It’s not pretty.

The census shows there were 3,094 children in the 0-4 age bracket, which averages out to about 618.8 per generational cohort. It will be interesting to see which major urban areas show more children in the 5-9 category than the 10-14 category during the next census.

They locked my thread, and this marks the third time I’ve been banned in the last four or five years.
It’s honestly pathetic how much some Americans fear the truth; I ended up heading over to the Mexican Forum because people there aren't nearly as riddled with complexes.

Lawrence Williams said:Predejana (village):

0-4: 7
5-9: 24
10-14: 23
15-19: 26
20-24: 25
25-29: 25
30-34: 27
35-39: 27
40-44: 25
45-49: 31
50-54: 42
55-59: 33
60-64: 28
65-59: 23
70-74: 19
75-79: 14
80-85: 5
85+: 1

Predejana (town):

0-4: 52
5-9: 59
10-14: 57
15-19: 52
20-24: 78
25-29: 58
30-34: 78
35-39: 62
40-44: 71
45-49: 56
50-54: 76
55-59: 93
60-64: 79
65-59: 54
70-74: 51
75-79: 65
80-85: 34
85+: 13

I honestly didn't even realize there was a Predejana village—I mean, I have no clue what's going on over there... just 7 people in the 0-4 bracket?!
In the town itself, you've got that one motel that basically keeps the whole Predejana area afloat and breathes life into that village... if that place goes under, the whole village just fades away...
Now, Predejana town is seeing a population dip of about 10%, but their 0-14 demographic makes up 14.7%, which is actually pretty decent! Provided we don't see massive migration out of that village, they should maintain a solid fertile base—maybe even push that 0-14 group past the 15% mark... 🙄

Sean Nguyen74 said:They locked my thread, and this marks the third time I’ve been banned in the last four or five years.
It’s honestly pathetic how much some Americans fear the truth; I ended up heading over to the Mexican Forum because people there aren't nearly as riddled with complexes.

You aren't the only one who's noticed that pattern.

User123 says:
They locked my thread—that’s my third ban in the last four or five years.
It’s honestly pathetic how much Americans fear the truth; I end up heading over to Mexican Forums because people there aren't such massive complexes.

Comman says
You aren't the only one who's noticed this.

It’s pretty obvious. They wiped out about ten of my posts in a forty-day span. I wasn't insulting anyone, belittling anyone, or being discriminatory. I actually reached out to the mods and Mr. Cuckoo to ask about "DEMOCRACY, HUMAN RIGHTS, EUROPEAN FREEDOMS, AND FREE SPEECH," but—surprise, surprise—I didn't get a single response.

hiddeneagle76 said:I honestly didn't even realize there was a Predejana village—I mean, I have no clue what's going on over there... just 7 people in the 0-4 bracket?!
In the town itself, you've got that one motel that basically keeps the whole Predejana area afloat and breathes life into that village... if that place goes under, the whole village just fades away...
Now, Predejana town is seeing a population dip of about 10%, but their 0-14 demographic makes up 14.7%, which is actually pretty decent! Provided we don't see massive migration out of that village, they should maintain a solid fertile base—maybe even push that 0-14 group past the 15% mark... 🙄

In about five to nine years, the next census will likely show a larger age bracket. Small towns naturally experience huge swings like this. However, given the rate at which birth rates are dropping in Memphis, these numbers aren't particularly surprising. The census confirmed that this trend is much more pronounced in rural areas than in the city itself.

Laura Brown41 said:User123 says:
They locked my thread—that’s my third ban in the last four or five years.
It’s honestly pathetic how much Americans fear the truth; I end up heading over to Mexican Forums because people there aren't such massive complexes.

Comman says
You aren't the only one who's noticed this.

It’s pretty obvious. They wiped out about ten of my posts in a forty-day span. I wasn't insulting anyone, belittling anyone, or being discriminatory. I actually reached out to the mods and Mr. Cuckoo to ask about "DEMOCRACY, HUMAN RIGHTS, EUROPEAN FREEDOMS, AND FREE SPEECH," but—surprise, surprise—I didn't get a single response.

Exactly. I’m only here for a handful of top-tier demographers. There are some great ones from various countries.
But the forum itself is heavily censored if you dare to say anything against the US or bring up a harsh reality they don't like. Meanwhile, on a site like Reddit, you could practically scream insults at anyone and nobody would blink an eye.
The vibe here is just like CNN—pure propaganda. Even Goebbels looks like a kitten in comparison.

I'm right there with you, Marčeta!

Angela Robinson3 said:I'm right there with you, Marčeta!

I'm not trying to take sides here; I'm just attempting to be realistic, even if it sounds harsh.
Go ahead and ban me if you have to—honestly, my contributions haven't been anything groundbreaking lately anyway. I'll just keep following the demographic threads thanks to Lookey, watermelon, Ustipk, Bagatur, Lawrence Williams, and the rest of the legends on this subforum.

Besides, anyone else—even someone with half a brain—would see it the same way...

I honestly think we’re witnessing the slow-motion collapse of the nation. It feels less like a sudden crash and more like a technical process of decay—one that will play out steadily over the next few decades until everything finally hits its peak disillusionment in maybe 50 or 60 years. It’s all becoming painfully obvious. We’re looking at a catastrophic drop in birth rates; those darkest demographic forecasts? They aren't just possibilities anymore; they're becoming reality. And the economy? Don't hold your breath. America won't suddenly become a powerhouse; instead, it'll just settle into being a hub for cheap labor, where most people are scraping by on $2,500 or $3,000 a month. Honestly, if you actually have a steady job, you should consider yourself lucky. As for crime, how do you even begin to fight it when the icons of youth culture are drug dealers, lowlifes, killers, and nothing more than cheap thrills? Social standards have hit rock bottom in every sense of the word. Abortion, promiscuity, prostitution, organized crime—they’re all flourishing. Even education has been gutted by predatory private colleges, degree mills, and a broken academic system that has effectively devalued learning down to the absolute lowest common denominator. The brain drain is only going to get worse. You simply can't build a healthy nation under these conditions. There will be fewer children, and every positive value we once held will have been crushed in favor of affirming the worst impulses of society. In a landscape this chaotic, amoral, and anarchic, how is someone who is actually honest and decent supposed to survive?

George Cooper2 said:I honestly think we’re witnessing the slow-motion collapse of the nation. It feels less like a sudden crash and more like a technical process of decay—one that will play out steadily over the next few decades until everything finally hits its peak disillusionment in maybe 50 or 60 years. It’s all becoming painfully obvious. We’re looking at a catastrophic drop in birth rates; those darkest demographic forecasts? They aren't just possibilities anymore; they're becoming reality. And the economy? Don't hold your breath. America won't suddenly become a powerhouse; instead, it'll just settle into being a hub for cheap labor, where most people are scraping by on $2,500 or $3,000 a month. Honestly, if you actually have a steady job, you should consider yourself lucky. As for crime, how do you even begin to fight it when the icons of youth culture are drug dealers, lowlifes, killers, and nothing more than cheap thrills? Social standards have hit rock bottom in every sense of the word. Abortion, promiscuity, prostitution, organized crime—they’re all flourishing. Even education has been gutted by predatory private colleges, degree mills, and a broken academic system that has effectively devalued learning down to the absolute lowest common denominator. The brain drain is only going to get worse. You simply can't build a healthy nation under these conditions. There will be fewer children, and every positive value we once held will have been crushed in favor of affirming the worst impulses of society. In a landscape this chaotic, amoral, and anarchic, how is someone who is actually honest and decent supposed to survive?

That's not gonna happen. This whole system is gonna crack within ten years at the latest, and then there'll be a revolution. (Actually, ten years is probably way too optimistic—people are already drowning here)

A new economic model will take over, focusing on primary and secondary sectors and re-industrialization. We'll see a massive purge of all those parasitic elements from society. Plus, a new cultural standard based on patriarchal values will be established. Anything that degrades those values would be banned.

There'll be a new family model with three kids per household. And birth rates will be boosted through different measures—everything from extra service credits for every child to cash subsidies and all sorts of other perks.

Peter Edwards said:That's not gonna happen. This whole system is gonna crack within ten years at the latest, and then there'll be a revolution. (Actually, ten years is probably way too optimistic—people are already drowning here)

A new economic model will take over, focusing on primary and secondary sectors and re-industrialization. We'll see a massive purge of all those parasitic elements from society. Plus, a new cultural standard based on patriarchal values will be established. Anything that degrades those values would be banned.

There'll be a new family model with three kids per household. And birth rates will be boosted through different measures—everything from extra service credits for every child to cash subsidies and all sorts of other perks.

Realistically, you could only pull this off under some kind of dictatorship, but let’s be honest: without a dictatorship, it’s just not going to happen.