NBA Finals Betting: Part 2

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Look, I’m not saying your bets won't hit—honestly, I actually dig both of them, especially the second one—but man, some of this just looks off to me.

1)The Los Angeles Lakers have arguably the best defense against the Point Guard position in the entire NBA. Ricky Rubio has been struggling hard lately, shooting 3-8, 1-7, and 1-8 over the last three games, and even when he does get going, we're talking 4 or 6 assists, which is basically a total disaster for him.
2)As far as letting Point Guards score, Charlotte is pretty much dead center in the league rankings.

1. True, but even so, I’ve got my doubts about Ricky Rubio hitting double digits against an older veteran like Kobe Bryant.
2. Well, they aren't really middle-of-the-pack; they're sitting at 19th regarding points allowed, and if you look at their overall defensive rating, they're down at 28th, so I wouldn't be surprised if Deron Williams goes over😁

I mean, seriously, what are we even doing here? I’m sitting here looking at this absolute mess and I just can't wrap my head around it! How does this even happen? You’d think after all this time we’d have figured out some semblance of common sense, but no, we’re still stuck spinning our wheels like it's some kind of joke! It’s honestly exhausting just watching the whole thing unfold, you know? Like, am I the only one seeing this disaster coming from a mile away while everyone else is just nodding along like everything is perfectly fine? It’s ridiculous! I’ve been trying to make sense of this for hours, rambling on to myself, getting more worked up by the second, because how can anyone be this oblivious? It’s just one thing after another, a constant stream of nonsense that makes you want to throw your hands up and walk away, but I can't, because if I don't say something, who will?! It's just madness, pure and simple! kaže:
Honestly, everything just points straight back to Boston. I’ve been sitting here spiraling about it, just chewing on the whole situation, and man, it all just lines up perfectly. You can't even argue with it at this point!
I don’t know about you guys, but that 1.65 line on Boston feels like a total scam to me, honestly! Like, are we even watching the same game? It just looks way too fishy, right? I mean, seriously, how can they justify those odds when everything tells me otherwise? It feels like a complete setup!🙂
I don't even know anymore, man. Honestly, whatever. I’m just gonna throw my money down on the Portland spread and call it a day.
I’m not holding my breath for anything more than 190 points here, honestly, and I’m expecting a total grind, so we'll just have to wait and see how it actually plays out!

Look, I wasn't even talking about the moneyline, alright? I was talking about taking the spread on Boston. I don't touch anything under +180 odds, period. I stick to the spread because I can't stand playing over/under or betting on the exact time. Honestly, I just want to avoid that soul-crushing feeling of losing a "sure thing" because some random stat went sideways. With the spread, it’s simple: you either win or you lose, there’s no middle ground and no extra headache to deal with. It’s black and white, you know what I mean?🤷Look, at the end of the day, you can't talk about "guarantees" in sports because there's just no such thing as certainty, right? It’s all a gamble! Everything—and I mean everything—just comes down to how you show up on that specific day and who exactly is standing across from you on the court. You think you've got it in the bag? Boom, reality check. One bad bounce or one opponent having the game of their life and suddenly your whole season plan is out the window. It's chaotic, it's unpredictable, and honestly, it's why we love it and hate it at the same time!🤷And honestly, it’s totally on us to hit those shots, right? I mean, we gotta nail those plays over and over again, and let's be real—you basically need a massive stroke of insane luck to pull it off, not to mention actually keeping a close eye on how the squads are playing out on the court!😉Anyway, at the end of the day, I just hope the guy finds some luck out there, you know? Honestly, whatever happens on the court, I'm just rooting for him to kill it!

wiredcanyon39 said:1. True, but I’m skeptical Rubio hits at least 10 against an aging Fisher.
2. They aren't really middle-of-the-road 19th regarding points allowed, and given their overall defense is ranked 28th, I think Deron hits the over.😁

Fair enough on point one, I was just pointing out where your logic felt a bit shaky.

As for the second part, my math puts the "middle" anywhere from 10 to 20, so sure, you could call them bottom half—but 🤣 you previously said Charlotte has bad defense, ESPECIALLY at PG, so you kind of contradicted yourself with that bolded part. And honestly, I think Deron has a great shot at the over; what's changed since he dropped 57 the other day?🤷

p.s. If you haven't placed your bet yet, let me try to talk you out of the Rubia over. He only put up 8 total points in those two games against the Lakers, so the value is definitely on the under if you ask me.

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Look, regarding the first part, I agree—the over looks like a solid bet to me too. I was just pointing out which of your arguments felt a little shaky.

As for the second thing, my math puts the middle ground somewhere between 10 and 20. Sure, you could argue it falls into the lower half, but 🤣 are you really aware that you said Charlotte has a terrible defense, especially against the PG? You basically tripped over your own feet with that bolded part there. And honestly, I really think Deron Williams has a great shot at hitting the over; I mean, what could have possibly changed since some day he dropped 57?🤷

p.s. If you haven't placed your bet yet, let me try to talk you out of that Rubio over. In his last two games against the Lakers, he only put up 8 total points, so if you ask me, there's way more value on the under... I don't know, just saying.

That bolded part refers to the PG's total performance for the game, not just points. Anyway, thanks for the critique—always welcome. I already placed a small bet, so I didn't dive super deep into the stats for these picks.

Alright, let's get back to the topic. Here are a few picks from the USA that nobody has posted yet.

Batum Over 14.5 @1.85
-Aldridge is going to have his hands full against KG and Bass. Wallace probably won't do much, and Felton isn't great either, but since Rondo is there, I can see Batum hitting around 20 points.
Philadelphia -12.5 @3.30
-Worth a shot. Philly is just a much stronger team overall, and you really have to take this one given they beat Boston by a 32 point lead recently.
Boston-Portland Under 184.5 @1.85
-The line is lower than what I'm seeing at overseas books. I'm expecting a defensive battle here; 4 of the last 5 matchups have stayed under this number.
Oklahoma-Cleveland Under 203.5 @1.85
-Both teams have been playing high-scoring ball lately, but it's worth a try because the last 8 meetings have all gone under. Plus, Oklahoma might pull away early and slow the tempo down in the 4th. Seems like a solid play to me.
Charlotte-Nets 1 @2.05
-Some day they barely scraped a win against the Nets with Williams only putting up 57. Hard to imagine them having another night that good, especially since Charlotte is finding their rhythm now that the injured guys are back.
Milwaukee-Knicks 1 @2.05
-Look, I'm pulling for the Knicks, but you can't ignore this. Milwaukee has won 7 of their last 8, and without Chandler, Ilyasova and Gooden might just run wild in the paint.
Sacramento-Dallas Over 196.5 @1.85
-Just look at their previous matchups—aside from the most recent one, they've been clearing 200+ easily. Both squads love to play fast, especially the home team.

Good luck tonight, everyone...

stormyseal9 said:I wasn't saying I'd always take the spread on Boston just because their odds never dip below 1.85. I just mean when I stick to spreads, totals, or game time, I avoid the stress of chasing parlay slips or worrying about a push.It's either a win or a loss, nothing else. 🤷But look, there’s no such thing as a sure thing in sports; everything depends on the matchup and how they show up that day.🤷Our job is just to hit them when we can, which takes a mix of staying on top of the teams and having a little bit of luck on our side.😉Anyway, good luck with whatever you decide to play.

When you're betting on favorites, playing the spread is definitely the smarter move. You lose way too much cash just hunting moneyline wins. That's just solid logic.

But man, you cracked me up with that bolded part. 🤣 It’s always like that, whether you're playing totals and spreads or anything else.

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Look, when you're betting on the favorite, playing the spread is just way smarter because you lose way too much cash if you're just sticking to Moneyline odds. That's just common sense.

But man, you really cracked me up with that bolded statement of yours, 🤣 because it’s not always like that—not just when you're messing around with over/unders and spreads.

I thought I didn't have to worry about a tie since that's basically not even part of my strategy, so you totally misunderstood me there! I meant I've basically got two outcomes: win or lose, right? It's not like when you're playing a standard bet where you're constantly sweating a draw😍. As for betting on favorites, I wouldn't say I agree with you at all because I go after underdogs all the time, especially if I think the spread looks juicy. And regarding Batum, has anyone else actually played him lately? Haha! Ever since Aldridge completely burned me, he doesn't even exist on my betting slips anymore, lol. Instead, I'll grab the French guy who's way more reliable—I've been riding him at a 3-3 record since I started, so let's hope he doesn't let me down tonight!

stormyseal9 said:I thought I didn't have to worry about an X when there isn't anyone playing my style, but you misunderstood me. I meant I felt like it was a toss-up between a win or a loss, not like playing a standard spread where you're sweating the X😍. As for betting on favorites, I wouldn't say I always do that; I actually take the underdog quite often if I think the handicap is right. And regarding Batum, hasn't someone else already outplayed him? haha

👍

Man, I totally missed the part about Batum. And yeah, ever since I tried to cover the spread for Atlanta against Miami and ended up losing a ton of money because I didn't hit the win/tie, I don't really bet on game outcomes much anymore. I mostly just bet on player props now.

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:👍

Man, I totally missed the news about Batum. And yeah, ever since I tried to cover the Ace situation against Atlanta playing Miami and ended up missing a 1x bet—which cost me a massive amount of money, seriously—I haven't really been into betting on just the final score much anymore. I've shifted my focus; now I mostly bet on individual players instead.

So we actually have a pretty similar betting style, except for the fact that I’m way more reckless😉. I play systems instead of just throwing two bucks at a huge payday hoping for the best🤷

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:I'm not saying your bets won't hit—in fact, I like both of them, especially the second one—but it still sticks out.

1) The Lakers are the second-best at defending the PG position in the entire NBA. Rubio has gone 3-8, 1-7, and 1-8 over his last three games, and in two of those, he only managed 4 and 6 assists, which is frankly a disaster.
2) Charlotte sits right in the middle of the NBA when it comes to points allowed to PGs.

Look, stats are ruthless, but they don't tell the whole story. Fisher is a liability on defense—quick guards tear him apart—but I recently read somewhere that Rubio is ranked as the second fastest player in the league (behind Parker); I'll drop the link if I can find it. A huge part of how the Lakers defend the PG position actually comes down to their frontcourt—specifically Bynum, who is an elite defender and shot blocker. Most players respect that Lakers frontline, which keeps them from driving straight into the paint.

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:If you seriously think Portland could be in the mix, I think betting the 2-pointer at 2.30 pays better than taking the +3.5 at 1.85. Long-term, that's the smarter play rather than chasing small spreads. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if this game stays under 184.5, based on the USA sportsbook lines.🤷

Signed. 👍

Since I'm on a roll, let me quote you one more time:

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Batum over 14.5 at 1.85
-Aldridge is going to have a rough time against KG and Bass. It’s unlikely Wallace does much here, and Felton isn't much either—plus Rondo is in the mix, so I could see Batum hitting closer to 20.

True, and honestly, you should probably look at the Under for Pierce too. Given his recent performances, the line is bound to be high. He won't have an easy night today, though—he's got two top-tier defenders in Batum and Wallace waiting for him.

James Taylor3 said:I get it, stats don't lie, but they don't tell the whole story either. Fisher is a liability on defense—opposing guards are absolutely shredding him. On the flip side, I just read somewhere that Rubio is ranked as the second fastest player in the league (right behind Parker); I'll drop the link if I can find it. A huge reason why the Lakers' perimeter defense holds up is their frontcourt, especially Bynum. He’s such a beast at rim protection and blocking shots that most guys give that Lakers interior a wide berth and think twice about driving.

Signature. 👍

Alright, since I'm on a roll, let me quote you one more time:

True, and honestly, maybe we should look at taking the under on Pierce too. Given how he's been playing lately, the ceiling is definitely high. But he's got a rough night ahead—he's going up against two elite defenders, Batum and Wallace.

1) Look, I know Fisher isn't much, and neither is Blake, which is a massive hole for the Lakers. If they had a legit playmaker, they might actually be the best team in the league. That said, their guard defense is surprisingly solid, and since they only put up 8 points combined over the first two games, I seriously doubt they'll go over on Rubio tonight.

2) As for Pierce, maybe we take the under there too because of those defensive matchups, plus I'm not expecting a massive scoring outburst. Rondo might even pull another triple-double out of nowhere tonight. It feels logical to bet Allen over 14.5 since the Portland defense doesn't handle SGA that well, but I keep getting burned by Boston players—they defy all logic, so I'm staying away from them tonight.

So, what do you guys think? Is Duncan going over 13.5?

Is Pau Gasol actually being traded, or is this just more baseless rumor mill noise?

http://rotoworld.com/player/nba/766/pau-gasol

I'm trading away Duncan, Pierce, and Deron Williams. Whatever happens, happens.

Mark Williams15 said:I'll just play Duncan, Pierce, and Deron Williams and see what happens.

Honestly, I don't have much to say about Duncan. 🙂He's been totally unpredictable this year.

I’m taking J. Smith under 21.5. With J. Johnson back in the lineup, I think this line is a bit too high. Plus, they're facing Detroit, and those guys can really grind out low-scoring games sometimes. I think Prince can keep him under this number. I’m feeling pretty confident on this one, like a 9/10. Even though he's been absolutely killing it over the last four games, when the team is fully healthy and includes Johnson, his average usually sits around 17.

Williams and Melo were both playing way above their level in that combo.

Parker isn't playing tonight

Lawrence Castillo76 said:It appears that Parker won't be taking the court this evening.

Greetings!
What can I even say? Honestly, I feel like I’ve played him way beyond his actual value... 🙂

He'll probably just give you your money back