Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Nathan Evans78 said:Just as I suspected, those sanctions aren't having any real impact at all. A "hungry" Russia would have likely risen up in protest the moment mobilization was even mentioned. ☕

And we're going to see how that movie plays out. Very soon.

Brenda Murphy3 said:Look, I think that’s always an option on the table, but you have to ask: what kind of price is Putin's regime actually willing to pay? And more importantly, can that regime even survive the fallout?

It’s technically possible, sure, but how realistic is it? Honestly, I haven't got a clue...

Putin doesn't just do things on a whim. All of this fits into long-term Russian policy goals. Even if Putin wasn't in charge, someone else from the Siloviki group would be running the show anyway.

I don't know why people are so naive about this stuff, especially here in the States.
It isn't just being naive, though—it's something way more dangerous than that.

I mean, it’s like how Maddox was just an extension of Greater Mexican politics, and now we have Vucic. After Vucic, there will just be someone else doing the exact same thing. It’s the same with Putin; after him, someone just like him will step up.
And then the naive folks will just sit there wondering why everything is going wrong and calling them crazy.

Nathan Evans78 said:Just as I suspected, those sanctions aren't having any real impact at all. A "hungry" Russia would have likely risen up in protest the moment mobilization was even mentioned. ☕

Partial mobilization was mentioned this morning around 7:00 AM. Now we’ll see the surge toward the Finnish border, an influx of the unfit, or as our colleague @Terry Green3 reports, a sudden shortage of Software Engineers.
The Russians are "rising up," alright—but they're running for the exits, not hitting the streets in protest.

Kyle Nelson2 said:Putin doesn't just do things on a whim. All of this fits into long-term Russian policy goals. Even if Putin wasn't in charge, someone else from the Siloviki group would be running the show anyway.

I don't know why people are so naive about this stuff, especially here in the States.
It isn't just being naive, though—it's something way more dangerous than that.

I mean, it’s like how Maddox was just an extension of Greater Mexican politics, and now we have Vucic. After Vucic, there will just be someone else doing the exact same thing. It’s the same with Putin; after him, someone just like him will step up.
And then the naive folks will just sit there wondering why everything is going wrong and calling them crazy.

Yeah, obviously, but that's not even the point.

I think everyone is fully aware of what's going on up there... I mean, we're talking about generations of CIA-trained spies (some are even third or fourth generation) holding all sorts of positions.

The issue is that stuff like this can cause the entire system to collapse, and then you're looking at decades of trying to rebuild things just to get back to the level of influence Putin has right now. It's the same deal over in Mexico...

Look, nobody is under the illusion that his successor will be some complete opposite, but there's a massive difference between acknowledging that and actually having the capacity to get anything done.

Carol Johnson21 said:Partial mobilization was mentioned this morning around 7:00 AM. Now we’ll see the surge toward the Finnish border, an influx of the unfit, or as our colleague @Terry Green3 reports, a sudden shortage of Software Engineers.
The Russians are "rising up," alright—but they're running for the exits, not hitting the streets in protest.

Look, I personally heard von der Leyen on TV claiming that sanctions would completely cripple the Russian war machine.

It took Mexico some time to get back on its feet before they could just go right back to their old ways anyway

If we’re looking at this realistically, how is Ukraine supposed to actually win a war against a nation that possesses virtually limitless human resources—I mean, they have three or four times the population size—and besides, it’s become painfully obvious that Russia isn't going to settle for anything less than total victory in Ukraine; in fact, I’m convinced they’d be willing to drag the entire world into a massive conflict if things started going south for them, since a psychopath like Putin is clearly prepared to go all the way to a total war.

Personally, I find myself stuck in a situation where I don't see any viable exit strategy that doesn't eventually spiral into a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, because honestly, what are the odds that this doesn't escalate into that within a few months or years, especially when removing Putin from the equation seems just as impossible as it was to stop Hitler, given how he has spent years building up an absolute machine of power within Russia that grants him unchecked control.

Nathan Evans78 said:Just as I suspected, those sanctions aren't having any real impact at all. A "hungry" Russia would have likely risen up in protest the moment mobilization was even mentioned. ☕

Well, nobody's asking a hungry Russia how they feel about it. But now? Now they might actually get their hands on some weapons.

Kyle Nelson2 said:It took Mexico some time to get back on its feet before they could just go right back to their old ways anyway

Really? How far did those tanks actually get?

Nancy Gomez26 said:I didn't sit through the entire speech because I was stuck watching those subtitles—which honestly drive me up the wall—but from what I gathered, there was some nonsense about preserving the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation. Let’s be clear: Russia isn't launching an attack, nor is its own sovereignty under threat. What we are seeing in Ukraine is nothing more than standard territorial expansionism disguised as defense. By his logic, any nation could invade its neighbors and claim they're simply "protecting their borders." It’s a completely moronic way to frame reality.

Was US territory ever threatened by Cuba? No. By Grenada? No. Yet they pulled the exact same moves Putin did in Ukraine. The US explanation: "Preserving US territorial integrity."

It’s funny how history repeats itself, especially when people favoring one side conveniently forget the facts. Was Afghanistan ever a threat to Russia? No. Was Vietnam a threat to the US? No. Let's round out the comparison. Who actually reacted? Nobody. Whenever the US and Russia get involved—both are garbage in my book—all the little guy can do is grab his gear and hit the road.

The bottom line is that Russia is severely weakened right now, both militarily and economically. But what's causing the panic is Zakharov claiming we're delusional if we think Russia can lose this. Whatever that means. The real danger is Western politicians completely ignoring that statement. The million-dollar question is who's going to be the first to get screwed... ☕
Reminds me of the Matrix and that quote: Ignorance is bliss!

Nathan Evans78 said:Look, I personally heard von der Leyen on TV claiming that sanctions would completely cripple the Russian war machine.

But aren't they? They definitely got crippled a bit over in the Kharkiv Oblast, didn't they? 🤔

It’s all playing out exactly how you’d expect: a referendum, military buildup, and those predictable nuclear threats if anyone dares step onto Russian soil. Of course, the old fox isn't being specific about what "Russian territory" actually means—is he talking about the borders from before February 2022, or the ones from before 2014?
Now we wait to see if it's just a bluff. In the meantime, I'm going to go dig a hole in my backyard. 😁

wanderingdriver68 said:If we’re looking at this realistically, how is Ukraine supposed to actually win a war against a nation that possesses virtually limitless human resources—I mean, they have three or four times the population size—and besides, it’s become painfully obvious that Russia isn't going to settle for anything less than total victory in Ukraine; in fact, I’m convinced they’d be willing to drag the entire world into a massive conflict if things started going south for them, since a psychopath like Putin is clearly prepared to go all the way to a total war.

Personally, I find myself stuck in a situation where I don't see any viable exit strategy that doesn't eventually spiral into a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, because honestly, what are the odds that this doesn't escalate into that within a few months or years, especially when removing Putin from the equation seems just as impossible as it was to stop Hitler, given how he has spent years building up an absolute machine of power within Russia that grants him unchecked control.

If they try to fight their way through Russian territory using nothing but sticks and stones, they aren't going to win. Period.

But nobody fights like that anymore.

Nathan Evans78 said:Look, I personally heard von der Leyen on TV claiming that sanctions would completely cripple the Russian war machine.

And yet, here we are, watching them thrive.
At this rate, we can expect the Russian economy to be in full bloom for the next thirty years.
Totalitarian societies are used to shortages; they don't feel the sting of sanctions immediately. But the economy is a fickle thing—it tends to hit you when you least expect it.

Nathan Evans78 said:Look, I personally heard von der Leyen on TV claiming that sanctions would completely cripple the Russian war machine.

Yeah, clearly they're doing a stellar job at crippling it, genius...😁 ...Putin isn't even bothering with a full mobilization because everything is playing out exactly how he wants.
By the way, since you're such an expert on currency exchanges—the one you kept obsessing over for a while now—😁 I hear the exchange rate in Moscow is hovering around 200 rubles to the dollar right now...

What a troll...😉

Brenda Murphy3 said:Are you kidding me? 😁

Democracy, Russian style...

Do you actually have any idea who these reservists are that they're supposedly mobilizing, or even how many there are? Where are these people coming from, and what kind of structure are they even working with?

Basically, anyone who has completed military service or received any kind of military training—even through civilian educational institutions:

- Enlisted personnel (sailors, etc.) and NCOs—up to age 50
(1st wave: up to 35 / 2nd wave: up to 45 / 3rd wave: up to 50)

- Junior officers—up to age 60
(50/55/60)

- Senior officers—up to age 65
(55/60/65)

- Generals (Admirals)—up to age 70
(65/70/-)

- Women holding officer ranks—up to age 50
(-/-/50)

- Women without officer ranks who still fall into the 3rd mobilization category—up to age 45
(-/-/45)

It looks to me like Putin is basically running a pension reform through this partial mobilization.

Jessica Peterson2 said:Basically, anyone who has completed military service or received any kind of military training—even through civilian educational institutions:

- Enlisted personnel (sailors, etc.) and NCOs—up to age 50
(1st wave: up to 35 / 2nd wave: up to 45 / 3rd wave: up to 50)

- Junior officers—up to age 60
(50/55/60)

- Senior officers—up to age 65
(55/60/65)

- Generals (Admirals)—up to age 70
(65/70/-)

- Women holding officer ranks—up to age 50
(-/-/50)

- Women without officer ranks who still fall into the 3rd mobilization category—up to age 45
(-/-/45)

So what kind of joke is this "partial mobilization" crap then? 😁

Kyle Nelson2 said:Honestly, you could've seen this coming. If you didn't protect your own neck early enough, you're already too late.

Precisely. The problem is that most people working in the IT sector assumed that simply being part of the industry was enough protection.
They’re just now realizing they actually needed to be officially classified specifically as "software developers" to qualify.

darkrider55 said:But aren't they? They definitely got crippled a bit over in the Kharkiv Oblast, didn't they? 🤔

Well, they're being neutralized through force. Ukrainians didn't just sit around waiting for an oil embargo to kick in back in December; they took action right now.

The only way to deal with an aggressor is with force—economic sanctions are just far too slow to be effective in the heat of the moment. It’s like if someone were to physically assault your wife, and your response was to protest by taking their wallet. It just doesn't add up, does it? ☕