Sanctions on Russia

Chris Thomas94 said:You ever wonder how they handle those massive oil well fires? They use explosives to blow it up and cut off the oxygen.
And how do you stop a huge wildfire from spreading? You set controlled burns in smaller areas first...

So yeah, the theory actually makes sense if you think about it. 🤣

I know about using explosives, but I've never heard of using gasoline. But hey, give it a shot and let me know how it works out for you. 😁

Whenever I hear Peskov claiming there’s absolutely zero chance of a Russian debt default, I just know we should probably start preparing for the exact opposite

https://www.reuters.com/business/kre...lt-2022-04-11/

The Kremlin is out here insisting that a Russian default is totally off the table

In my view, all this talk about a potential default is being wildly overstated given the current circumstances. What would a default even signify for them when they are already effectively severed from the global economy? It’s as if people believe it could somehow jumpstart economic activity in this situation. The only real risk might be a sudden wave of panic among citizens rushing to the banks, but that is easily managed by simply shuttering branches and placing strict limits on ATM withdrawals. These people are already under blockade; they are essentially living through the consequences of a default without actually having triggered one. You can't kick someone out of SWIFT twice.

Nancy Gomez26 said:In my view, all this talk about a potential default is being wildly overstated given the current circumstances. What would a default even signify for them when they are already effectively severed from the global economy? It’s as if people believe it could somehow jumpstart economic activity in this situation. The only real risk might be a sudden wave of panic among citizens rushing to the banks, but that is easily managed by simply shuttering branches and placing strict limits on ATM withdrawals. These people are already under blockade; they are essentially living through the consequences of a default without actually having triggered one. You can't kick someone out of SWIFT twice.

Plus, they've had those kinds of restrictions and bans on their own citizens since practically day one. About ten different rules were rolled out shortly after the conflict started—things like banning foreign currency purchases and putting strict daily caps on how much cash people can actually pull out.

Nancy Gomez26 said:In my view, all this talk about a potential default is being wildly overstated given the current circumstances. What would a default even signify for them when they are already effectively severed from the global economy? It’s as if people believe it could somehow jumpstart economic activity in this situation. The only real risk might be a sudden wave of panic among citizens rushing to the banks, but that is easily managed by simply shuttering branches and placing strict limits on ATM withdrawals. These people are already under blockade; they are essentially living through the consequences of a default without actually having triggered one. You can't kick someone out of SWIFT twice.

Modern banking is all about risk management and credit ratings—once you hit default, the lending tap just shuts off. Because of those crappy ratings and the sanctions, the Asian Development Bank has already pulled the plug on doing business with the Russians.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/north America...-i-bjelorusiji

Sam Alvarez4 said:EU foreign ministers are meeting in D.C. tomorrow.
The topic: the 6th package of sanctions against Russia.

The EU will discuss the 6th round of sanctions against Moscow this Monday 11:23

Pressure from sanctions just keeps building...

Here's the American take from antilles.
Expelling 24 Russians.

What happens when the Russians burn through all their remaining liquid foreign exchange reserves?
Does anyone have a rough estimate of how much they've actually burned through so far?

Nathan Thomas12 said:Modern banking is all about risk management and credit ratings—once you hit default, the lending tap just shuts off. Because of those crappy ratings and the sanctions, the Asian Development Bank has already pulled the plug on doing business with the Russians.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/north America...-i-bjelorusiji

Fine, let’s assume they aren't in default and their rating is A +++++++. Even then, how does anyone lend to them? How do you actually wire funds to an account when they are cut off from SWIFT? Suppose someone manages to get money into an account—who would they even buy from with that cash? They can't move money out of the account to pay international suppliers if they aren't in SWIFT. And even if they did manage a purchase, how would they physically bring goods home? Eventually, all trade will dwindle down to small-scale, border-town cash transactions through China, Kazakhstan, and perhaps some other Central Asian nation where people are desperate enough for any kind of profit. Maybe there will be some complex barter schemes involving goods with China, but that’s just discounted liquidation. If this persists, I expect life along certain borders to become very interesting.

The current US default situation—if we look at it through that lens—is really only a problem for the creditors. It’s the lenders who will miss their scheduled repayments. It isn't that the US won't have the money to pay those installments; it's the fallout for the banks. There is an old saying: if you owe $100,000, you have a problem; if you owe $100,000,000, the bank has a problem. I have no idea what the actual debt levels or the immediate obligations are, but theoretically, if we are talking about massive sums, the global economy—which is already struggling—could certainly feel the impact.

William Cooper11 said:What happens when the Russians burn through all their remaining liquid foreign exchange reserves?
Does anyone have a rough estimate of how much they've actually burned through so far?

I think I heard somewhere about a week ago that they've already tapped into 10%.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Fine, let’s assume they aren't in default and their rating is A +++++++. Even then, how does anyone lend to them? How do you actually wire funds to an account when they are cut off from SWIFT? Suppose someone manages to get money into an account—who would they even buy from with that cash? They can't move money out of the account to pay international suppliers if they aren't in SWIFT. And even if they did manage a purchase, how would they physically bring goods home? Eventually, all trade will dwindle down to small-scale, border-town cash transactions through China, Kazakhstan, and perhaps some other Central Asian nation where people are desperate enough for any kind of profit. Maybe there will be some complex barter schemes involving goods with China, but that’s just discounted liquidation. If this persists, I expect life along certain borders to become very interesting.

The current US default situation—if we look at it through that lens—is really only a problem for the creditors. It’s the lenders who will miss their scheduled repayments. It isn't that the US won't have the money to pay those installments; it's the fallout for the banks. There is an old saying: if you owe $100,000, you have a problem; if you owe $100,000,000, the bank has a problem. I have no idea what the actual debt levels or the immediate obligations are, but theoretically, if we are talking about massive sums, the global economy—which is already struggling—could certainly feel the impact.

From what I gather, the BRICS nations are planning to roll out their own alternative to SWIFT.

Unless those Russian oil and gas pipelines are shut down completely, the Russians aren't going to budge; I truly believe we ought to consider this move as soon as possible. After all, summer is just around the corner, and we simply won't be needing the heating.

Nathan Thomas12 said:From what I gather, the BRICS nations are planning to roll out their own alternative to SWIFT.

They have been planning this for ages, yet it remains stuck in development. It is unlikely that a nation like Brazil would compromise itself just to serve the specific interests of Russia. They aren't Belarus; they don't need this kind of headache, and frankly, it offers them nothing but trouble. Sure, let them attempt to build an alternative system—if it actually gains any legitimacy, perhaps it might survive.

velvetbadger11 said:Unless those Russian oil and gas pipelines are shut down completely, the Russians aren't going to budge; I truly believe we ought to consider this move as soon as possible. After all, summer is just around the corner, and we simply won't be needing the heating.

Can someone please explain what the Russian Federation actually does with the revenue they pull from selling gas to the EU? What can they even accomplish with those funds once they've been cleared? I should clarify—I'm not talking about physical piles of cash, but rather simple digital entries sitting in some computer database somewhere.

Who even thinks they can buy dollars or euros in Russia these days?

Joshua Myers432 said:I know about using explosives, but I've never heard of using gasoline. But hey, give it a shot and let me know how it works out for you. 😁

1. Fill up a fire truck with gasoline.

You can probably handle the rest on your own. 😉

As for peace and prosperity in SJ Africa... I suppose looking at Libya gives us a glimpse of what happens when various tribes actually find common ground. It’s hardly a universal rule, of course, but there isn't much of a precedent for political pluralism in that region.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Can someone please explain what the Russian Federation actually does with the revenue they pull from selling gas to the EU? What can they even accomplish with those funds once they've been cleared? I should clarify—I'm not talking about physical piles of cash, but rather simple digital entries sitting in some computer database somewhere.

They are essentially purchasing things they don't actually possess, since nobody else is willing to touch the Ruble.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Can someone please explain what the Russian Federation actually does with the revenue they pull from selling gas to the EU? What can they even accomplish with those funds once they've been cleared? I should clarify—I'm not talking about physical piles of cash, but rather simple digital entries sitting in some computer database somewhere.

JPMorgan Chase hasn't been kicked out of SWIFT—meaning, not every single bank is off the grid yet.

slyfox43 said:1. Fill up a fire truck with gasoline.

You can probably handle the rest on your own. 😉

As for peace and prosperity in SJ Africa... I suppose looking at Libya gives us a glimpse of what happens when various tribes actually find common ground. It’s hardly a universal rule, of course, but there isn't much of a precedent for political pluralism in that region.

Eventually, they will tire of the constant bloodshed. One just has to wait. When the time comes for them to draft a peace treaty, they will inevitably look for a guarantor—someone capable of ensuring everyone actually sticks to their word. And we all know exactly who holds that kind of leverage.

velvetbadger11 said:They are essentially purchasing things they don't actually possess, since nobody else is willing to touch the Ruble.

Legally speaking, they won't be able to purchase a single thing—nobody wants to be even remotely associated with them. It isn't just because they lack any real assets; it's because their own subordinates are terrified of what might happen if they're caught in the crossfire.

Nathan Thomas12 said:JPMorgan Chase hasn't been kicked out of SWIFT—meaning, not every single bank is off the grid yet.

So, what does ExxonMobil plan to do with all that cash piling up in those accounts?
I am not suggesting their strategy is foolish—they clearly understand why they are accepting payments for gas into those specific accounts, regardless of the circumstances. They have a reason. My question is simply looking for a competent answer. This could even be a matter of pure logistics; I am aware that certain supply hubs cannot simply be shut down overnight. Like a pressurized system, the flow has to stay constant, even if it's just a trickle.