Sanctions on Russia

Melissa Bailey5 said:Nah, I was actually talking about beefing up their foreign exchange reserves.

They cleared out the dollars—mostly the Treasury bonds, anyway—but they put way too much faith in the Euro.

Sarah Mitchell2 said:Fair enough, but they're only selling gas to the EU. Which specific year does that 66 billion figure cover? What was the total back in 2021 versus what we're looking at for 2022? If it ends up being more than 172 billion, then those sanctions didn't actually do squat.

If it were up to me—even though I rely on gas for heat—I'd say shut it all down immediately. Prices are going up regardless.

So why the hell is gas getting more expensive then?

Who exactly is seeing the price hikes?
Companies over in Germany have been buying up gas just to flip it for a profit. For them, maximizing that spread between buy and sell prices is the name of the game for their shareholders.
Essentially, these corporations act like speculators. They structure contracts to cover maybe 70-80% of their needs, then scramble to buy the rest on the spot market if things get dicey. The absolute worst-case scenario is when they overcommit via contract, buying more than 100% of what they can actually move. Then they're stuck with a massive surplus, leading to fire sales where they're selling below cost—sometimes even hitting negative prices.

I've spent a lot of time watching the electricity markets. You'll see them offering 1,000 MWh of power between midnight and 6 AM, and they'll practically throw in €60,000 just to take it. Then suddenly, from 6 to 9 AM, the price jumps straight to €70 per MWh.
Back then, huge amounts of energy—around 4,000 to 5,000 MWh constantly—were flowing through the US transit routes toward Italy. If we had possessed reversible capacity of about 1,000 to 2,000 MWh, we could have been pulling in free electricity overnight to use during the day. Right now, prices are a bit 😁higher

https://hupx.hu/en/

rustynomad12 said:Honestly, you just seem a little immature—especially since you keep using "we"... who is this collective "we" you think you represent?
Just you.
Sorry, I'm not going to sink to that level...
I respect any argument that's actually backed by facts, including yours...
Maybe re-read what I wrote... or don't. Whatever.
As far as I'm concerned, this debate is over.

Trust me, there isn't a lower level for you to sink to than where you're standing right now.

There isn't even a debate happening here; you just took something personally, and all it does is make you look like a Russian troll.

And when I say "we," I'm talking about the people actually participating in this forum—the ones who have been posting under the same handles for months, not someone playing dress-up.

rustynomad12 said:They work, don't you worry... it just takes a little while...
I mean, let's be real, nobody is more of a bully than the USA...
If we're being totally honest, once this all settles how it's supposed to, we should just tell them all where to shove it and focus on getting stronger within the Union...
The Russians and the Americans are both terrible choices...
It's just a matter of which set of evils you're forced to pick from...
The USA is the main one to blame for all this mess, period! No debate!
Just listen to that Nulandicu-fuck EU. That's enough smarts for one day.

Melissa Bailey5 said:I don't think I've ever seen a case since the Vietnam War where the US deliberately and methodically targeted civilian spots and slaughtered non-combatants like that. Now, sure, there were crimes—that happens in every war, obviously. And yeah, Guantanamo is an absolute disgrace for the US, no doubt about it.

Hundreds of thousands dead in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Libya. Millions more displaced. Just another day in this broken world.
There isn't much left to say. Just an endless cycle that refuses to stop.

The EU just slapped sanctions on Russian coal imports, but they don't even kick in until September. Should I laugh or cry?

The full package of sanctions was passed yesterday, not just the one on coal.

Check out the details here.

Melissa Bailey5 said:I don't think I've ever seen a case since the Vietnam War where the US deliberately and methodically targeted civilian spots and slaughtered non-combatants like that. Now, sure, there were crimes—that happens in every war, obviously. And yeah, Guantanamo is an absolute disgrace for the US, no doubt about it.

Ever since the Korean and Vietnam Wars, the USA hasn't really fought anyone capable of hitting back. If they're hitting targets systematically, blame them for it. Look at Fallujah in 2004. It was roughly the same size and population as Mariupol. Entire sections of the city were systematically leveled just so Americans could minimize their own casualties. Why? Because they could. Most of the civilians—about 99%—had already fled before the fighting started. After the battle, the city looked just like Mariupol does today. Around 800 civilians died, which I assume was most of the people left behind. Makes you wonder what would've happened if even 10% of those 300,000 refugees had stayed. The battle lasted about a month and a half. They killed around 1,500 ISIS members and about 100 Americans, Britons, and Iraqis.

Sam Alvarez4 said:The full package of sanctions was passed yesterday, not just the one on coal.

Check out the details here.

But look, this doesn't even kick in until September. Between now and then, anyone relying on that coal is going to ramp up imports and stockpile everything they can. That’s why I said I don't know whether to laugh or cry. And then we act surprised when the ruble stabilizes. ☕

rowdyraven112 said:But look, this doesn't even kick in until September. Between now and then, anyone relying on that coal is going to ramp up imports and stockpile everything they can. That’s why I said I don't know whether to laugh or cry. And then we act surprised when the ruble stabilizes. ☕

The coal embargo actually kicks in at the start of August, not September.

From what I can see, the sanctions are definitely working.
But this is just the beginning... there's much more to come.

Sam Alvarez4 said:The coal embargo actually kicks in at the start of August, not September.

From what I can see, the sanctions are definitely working.
But this is just the beginning... there's much more to come.

German media is reporting that the coal sanctions—which were requested by Germany—have been extended by one month... as of yesterday. 🤔
If that's the case, we should be looking at April. 🤔
Lp

Bryan Booth82 said:German media is reporting that the coal sanctions—which were requested by Germany—have been extended by one month... as of yesterday. 🤔
If that's the case, we should be looking at April. 🤔
Lp

here:

But the embargo will Come into Force AT The beginning of August, 120 days after the publication of the new package in the European Union’s official journal, a date that has been a moving target during the discussions.

French media is also pointing toward the start of August

Let’s just point out that Putin actually did one
thing that might actually help him when it comes to
suspending sanctions: He pulled back from the outskirts of Kyiv,
and whether he meant to or not, he shifted his focus to eastern Ukraine.
And in eastern Ukraine, not everyone is exactly thrilled with the current state of affairs.
It’s an unfortunate reality, but at least some countries might want to
give Putin some credit for it. Which ones? Who knows.

Look, we’re all pretty fired up against Russia right now, but if
the Russian military formally exits Ukraine (similar to how
America "exited" places like Canada), then the question is
how many countries will still be riding that wave of anger.

Over here, I wouldn't be surprised if Zoran Milanović finds something nice to say about Putin.

I assume that would open a window for Russia to have some
Western sanctions suspended. (Judging by Sergey Lavrov, the sheer
intensity of the sanctions caught them totally off guard.)

Timothy Kim9 said:Let’s just point out that Putin actually did one
thing that might actually help him when it comes to
suspending sanctions: He pulled back from the outskirts of Kyiv,
and whether he meant to or not, he shifted his focus to eastern Ukraine.
And in eastern Ukraine, not everyone is exactly thrilled with the current state of affairs.
It’s an unfortunate reality, but at least some countries might want to
give Putin some credit for it. Which ones? Who knows.

Look, we’re all pretty fired up against Russia right now, but if
the Russian military formally exits Ukraine (similar to how
America "exited" places like Canada), then the question is
how many countries will still be riding that wave of anger.

Over here, I wouldn't be surprised if Zoran Milanović finds something nice to say about Putin.

I assume that would open a window for Russia to have some
Western sanctions suspended. (Judging by Sergey Lavrov, the sheer
intensity of the sanctions caught them totally off guard.)

The West has already made it clear they aren't budging on sanctions this time until Russia vacates every single occupied territory.
Personally, I doubt there’s much more than maybe 1% of those local collaborators in eastern Ukraine who actually love the Russians; it's just that the "pro-Russian" east is taking the brunt of it because the Russians can't even reach the West except through missile strikes.

Hm, if you don't dangle a "carrot" in front of Vladimir Putin
he isn't going to offer Ukraine any kind of truce

And let's be real—Ukraine needs time to prep for any potential counter-offensives.

Signing a ceasefire, a formal troop withdrawal
and a suspension (not an outright repeal, just a suspension) of some sanctions—think things like sports bans
or letting Russia sell gas, oil, and coal to the European Union again—could
take the pressure off Vladimir Putin enough to make him think he can still
control all of Ukraine in some hazy, distant future, even if he can't do it now.

In the meantime, we need to beef up the Ukrainian Armed Forces and work on making
those eastern republics a total liability. They have to become a massive drain on Vladimir Putin—
all cost and zero benefit.

I’m honestly just sitting here praying that people working in the tech sector don't decide to pack up and leave Silicon Valley. I think someone else on this thread already pointed out how much the number of scientists has plummeted in Russia—it went from about a million back in 1990 all the way down to just 350k by 2019.
It's pretty clear that the petrostate has been bleeding out for a long time now and they just can't seem to keep pace with the rest of the developed world, especially since all those massive oil and gas revenues have basically acted as a smokescreen for how much they're actually struggling.

https://twitter.com/CChollanda/statu...cMWzRqBDg&s=19

“What really stands out to me... is how Germany is dragging its feet on making even small sacrifices right now—despite all those horrific war crimes—when you look back at how much they forced everyone else to sacrifice during the European debt crisis about ten years ago.”

— Paul Krugman, The New York Times

Timothy Kim9 said:Let’s just point out that Putin actually did one
thing that might actually help him when it comes to
suspending sanctions: He pulled back from the outskirts of Kyiv,
and whether he meant to or not, he shifted his focus to eastern Ukraine.
And in eastern Ukraine, not everyone is exactly thrilled with the current state of affairs.
It’s an unfortunate reality, but at least some countries might want to
give Putin some credit for it. Which ones? Who knows.

Look, we’re all pretty fired up against Russia right now, but if
the Russian military formally exits Ukraine (similar to how
America "exited" places like Canada), then the question is
how many countries will still be riding that wave of anger.

Over here, I wouldn't be surprised if Zoran Milanović finds something nice to say about Putin.

I assume that would open a window for Russia to have some
Western sanctions suspended. (Judging by Sergey Lavrov, the sheer
intensity of the sanctions caught them totally off guard.)

Vladimir Putin's forces up north were basically in the same spot as Adolf Hitler's at Stalingrad.
If Hitler had retreated from Stalingrad in early November, maybe he could have salvaged more troops, much like what happened with Vladimir Putin near Kyiv.

So, I don't really see it as an act of good faith.

And those criminal massacres uncovered after the retreat... well, they probably don't leave Vladimir Putin even the slightest hope of getting any sanctions lifted, at least not until there's some kind of solid ceasefire.
I'm inclined to believe they'll demand a full withdrawal back to the pre-February 24th lines too.

Over in eastern Ukraine, some people aren't exactly thrilled with Ukraine.

But most of them are even less enthusiastic about Russia now, I think.

I assume that would open a window for Russia to get some
Western sanctions suspended. (Judging by Sergey Lavrov, the sheer
intensity of the sanctions seems to have caught them off guard.)

Most of the sanctions will likely stay in place until Russia agrees to an investigation into war crimes.

analogbear5 said:

“What really stands out to me... is how Germany is dragging its feet on making even small sacrifices right now—despite all those horrific war crimes—when you look back at how much they forced everyone else to sacrifice during the European debt crisis about ten years ago.”

— Paul Krugman, The New York Times

Is Paul Krugman just a political agitator at this point?
A former economist who basically failed upward... someone who probably should have just returned his Alfred Nobel prize?

I mean, does he even sound like an economist anymore, or is he just acting like a political activist?

🍿

Russia is basically teetering on the edge of total bankruptcy right now.
S&P just dropped Russia’s rating down to "selective default," which is pretty much the final warning shot before they officially go under. It honestly looks like those legendary Russian reserves are finally running on fumes.

https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-...lt-2022-04-09/

S&P cuts Russia's foreign currency rating to 'selective default'

Timothy Nelson5 said:Is Paul Krugman just a political agitator at this point?
A former economist who basically failed upward... someone who probably should have just returned his Alfred Nobel prize?

I mean, does he even sound like an economist anymore, or is he just acting like a political activist?

🍿

Krugman hit the nail on the head regarding Germany.
About 12 or 13 years ago, they were the leaders driving austerity across Europe, but today, they hesitate to tighten their own belts while everyone else in the EU is forced to do so without being asked.