Sanctions on Russia

Dennis Price said:It isn't over until the lady sings.

True—but there is no doubt she’ll be hitting those high notes.

Dennis Price said:It isn't over until the lady sings.

True—but there is no doubt she’ll be hitting those high notes eventually.

Dennis Price said:A win would basically just preserve Russia's current political structure. As for what happens to Russia if they lose this war? Honestly, God only knows.

But really, why act like they're tethered to an "enemy"? That "enemy" is also their best customer.

But what does "victory" even look like? Is it just ousting Zelensky and installing some pro-Russian puppet regime that nobody outside of Moscow will ever recognize?

There is no such thing as victory here. If they had managed to topple the Ukrainian government at the very start, things would be looking a lot different right now. As it stands, they might grab the Donbas, but they’ll likely stall out somewhere halfway through—unless they decide to go nuclear on Ukraine, though I doubt they'd go that far...
If they settle for a chunk of territory and call it a win, it won't stay quiet for long. With Western backing, the Ukrainians are eventually going to try to take back what was lost—maybe even all of it. It'll be like those intense counter-offensives we see in history books.

dustyowl29 said:But what does "victory" even look like? Is it just ousting Zelensky and installing some pro-Russian puppet regime that nobody outside of Moscow will ever recognize?

There is no such thing as victory here. If they had managed to topple the Ukrainian government at the very start, things would be looking a lot different right now. As it stands, they might grab the Donbas, but they’ll likely stall out somewhere halfway through—unless they decide to go nuclear on Ukraine, though I doubt they'd go that far...
If they settle for a chunk of territory and call it a win, it won't stay quiet for long. With Western backing, the Ukrainians are eventually going to try to take back what was lost—maybe even all of it. It'll be like those intense counter-offensives we see in history books.

The most likely outcome of this entire insane aggression is precisely what you just laid out.
The only real question left is: how much longer can this madness actually last?
Best regards,

dustyowl29 said:But what does "victory" even look like? Is it just ousting Zelensky and installing some pro-Russian puppet regime that nobody outside of Moscow will ever recognize?

There is no such thing as victory here. If they had managed to topple the Ukrainian government at the very start, things would be looking a lot different right now. As it stands, they might grab the Donbas, but they’ll likely stall out somewhere halfway through—unless they decide to go nuclear on Ukraine, though I doubt they'd go that far...
If they settle for a chunk of territory and call it a win, it won't stay quiet for long. With Western backing, the Ukrainians are eventually going to try to take back what was lost—maybe even all of it. It'll be like those intense counter-offensives we see in history books.

I wouldn't bet on that. First, they grab a chunk of Eastern Ukraine and set up some pathetic little republic. Then comes the "peace talks," then a ceasefire, then a rigged referendum in those garbage republics (just like what happened in Crimea), and voilà—suddenly it's Russia.

Meanwhile, they'll launch another five or six Sarmat missiles toward Alaska, and anyone daring enough to touch Russia gets hit with a Sarmat. Think about it. You can attack the Luhansk Republic or the Donetsk Republic—those little joke states. But once it becomes officially Russia? I'm not so sure.

It might be a Russian victory, but it's a Pyrrhic one. They haven't pushed NATO away from their borders, nor have they gained any significant land, yet they've completely severed ties with the West. And what exactly is the benefit? What kind of connection do Russians even have with Indians, Chinese, or Mongols?

Up until now, the West has mostly managed to look the other way during Russian conflicts—or at least, they’ve gone to great lengths to pretend nothing was happening. But this current situation? It’s a completely different animal, and that changes everything.

The old playbook—where you just stir up some trouble and then swoop in to snatch a slice of territory that wasn't even yours before the aggression started
—just doesn't work anymore.
Regardless of how the front lines actually look, the Ukrainians aren't going to back down, which means it doesn't matter what kind of nonsense Putin decides to proclaim next.
The momentum has shifted toward the Ukrainian side. Let’s be real: Russia can't keep hundreds of thousands of soldiers stationed indefinitely just to hold onto a bunch of desolate towns and villages they eventually manage to seize.

That "inch-by-inch" conquest tactic is dead in the water. Honestly, I think they knew that even before the invasion began, which is exactly why their original goal was to take Kyiv in one fell swoop.
Best regards,

Joshua Myers432 said:I wouldn't bet on that. First, they grab a chunk of Eastern Ukraine and set up some pathetic little republic. Then comes the "peace talks," then a ceasefire, then a rigged referendum in those garbage republics (just like what happened in Crimea), and voilà—suddenly it's Russia.

Meanwhile, they'll launch another five or six Sarmat missiles toward Alaska, and anyone daring enough to touch Russia gets hit with a Sarmat. Think about it. You can attack the Luhansk Republic or the Donetsk Republic—those little joke states. But once it becomes officially Russia? I'm not so sure.

It might be a Russian victory, but it's a Pyrrhic one. They haven't pushed NATO away from their borders, nor have they gained any significant land, yet they've completely severed ties with the West. And what exactly is the benefit? What kind of connection do Russians even have with Indians, Chinese, or Mongols?

If you ask them, the connections are far deeper than anything they have with the West.

Dennis Price said:A win would basically just preserve Russia's current political structure. As for what happens to Russia if they lose this war? Honestly, God only knows.

But really, why act like they're tethered to an "enemy"? That "enemy" is also their best customer.

Well, history teaches us a thing or two, so maybe we don't need to jump straight to the worst-case scenario. But looking back, every single time the USSR or Russia tried to pull off an imperial conquest, they lost. And that always leads to political chaos, more wars, more defeats, and eventually massive shifts in Russian society. Every. Single. Time.

So, I guess only a fool would expect anything different this time around.

There really seem to be just three ways this goes:

1) The conflict spreads—maybe to Moldova, Georgia, Belarus, or Finland, in that order. Maybe even hitting NATO.
2) Unrest and fighting spills over into Russia itself—think civil war or a revolution.
3) The whole Russian political system and leadership just collapse.

And honestly, I think we might see all three happening, to some degree, over the next few years.

Joshua Myers432 said:I wouldn't bet on that. First, they grab a chunk of Eastern Ukraine and set up some pathetic little republic. Then comes the "peace talks," then a ceasefire, then a rigged referendum in those garbage republics (just like what happened in Crimea), and voilà—suddenly it's Russia.

Meanwhile, they'll launch another five or six Sarmat missiles toward Alaska, and anyone daring enough to touch Russia gets hit with a Sarmat. Think about it. You can attack the Luhansk Republic or the Donetsk Republic—those little joke states. But once it becomes officially Russia? I'm not so sure.

It might be a Russian victory, but it's a Pyrrhic one. They haven't pushed NATO away from their borders, nor have they gained any significant land, yet they've completely severed ties with the West. And what exactly is the benefit? What kind of connection do Russians even have with Indians, Chinese, or Mongols?

And where exactly would they aim a Sarmat? At Kyiv?
If they actually pulled that off, they'd be paying back much more than just the principal.

And who exactly would be collecting those interest payments?

feralcanyon73 said:And who exactly would be collecting those interest payments?

Who is actually arming Ukraine?

Binance has moved to freeze several accounts tied to the family members of high-ranking White House officials.

The list of frozen assets includes the daughter of Peskov, a pastor connected to Lavrov, and the son of Malofejev.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...mlin-officials

rustywalker82 said:Alright, listen, for the third time now—I’m not talking about just any random sanctions. I’m specifically talking about how speculating on bans for Russian energy imports ended up driving their revenues through the roof because the market spiked the value of those commodities.

It doesn't matter if the people quoting me can't agree on the details:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/28/b...ntl/index.html

(CNN Business)
European Union imports of Russian fossil fuels soared during the first two months of the Ukraine invasion, despite some buyers shunning Russian energy and finding alternative suppliers, a report by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) shows.
European Union imports of Russian fossil fuels accounted for 44 billion euros ($46.3 billion) from February 24, the day Russia launched its invasion, to April 24. That's more than double the value of Russian energy imported by EU states during the same two-month period last year

It looks like some kind of deal at the EU level might have actually gone through; word is an embargo on Russian oil is set to kick off next week, though it’ll likely be rolled out in stages—so we’re probably looking at just a partial embargo to start with.
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...96015059144704

Carl Lee27 said:It looks like some kind of deal at the EU level might have actually gone through; word is an embargo on Russian oil is set to kick off next week, though it’ll likely be rolled out in stages—so we’re probably looking at just a partial embargo to start with.
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...96015059144704

Things are starting to move, if you catch my drift.

Since this war kicked off, Russia has raked in 62 billion Bucks, according to this Guardian link.
Lower volume of oil and gas, but at much higher prices.🤦

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-ukraine-began

Unless we actually shut down Russian oil and gas production en masse, we’re just dreaming about the end of the war. We're talking about the second largest producer of oil and gas in the world, according to Wikipedia.
By the time sanctions fully bite and we reroute pipelines, LNG terminals, and prep refineries to handle different crude, we're looking at years of transition.
Honestly, it’d be cheaper to just crank weapon production in NATO countries to fifth gear and ship it straight to Ukraine.

If we cut the Russian tap right now, a gallon of gas would cost at least $8.25 for a sedan, and the European economy would tank straight into a nasty recession.😵
But hey, that doesn't suit the Russians or Europe, does it?

So most of these sanctions against Russia are basically shots in the dark, unless we're talking about electronic components for weapons.

Buck said:On top of everything else, they’re totally politically isolated—it's just a matter of time before those oil and gas deliveries to the EU dry up. They recently tried putting out a tender to sell off surplus oil to other markets (like India, for example), but it was a total bust. The Indians and everyone else know exactly how desperate the Russians are right now, so they're basically squeezing them on purchase prices. It's going to be tough for them to get actual market rates for their crude. And with gas, you can't just flip a switch—once those wells are flowing, it's hard to just shut down production, so they'll have to find somewhere else to dump it. Either way, we're looking at a serious drying up of the most vital revenue streams for Russia.

Also, let's not forget the most critical link in this whole chain that people on this forum always seem to overlook: someone actually has to move the oil.

Basically, Russia sends its oil to Europe using Aframax and Suezmax tankers with capacities up to 600,000 barrels—that's about a week's trip there and a week back.

Those tankers just aren't efficient enough for long-haul voyages. To get oil over to China, you'd need VLCC tankers—they have over 70 of them, but since those massive ships can't fit through the Suez, you'd be looking at a month-long trip each way. Plus, all 800-ish VLCCs currently in existence are already running at full tilt.

Besides, if the Chinese decide to buy Russian oil—which would make shipping costs skyrocket—it would free up a massive amount of Arab oil that could head to Europe instead of China.

There is absolutely no way we’re seeing a massive pivot toward Asia. Honestly, even if there were no war, no sanctions, or none of this chaos, those maritime routes just don't make any sense from a logistical standpoint. The second Europe stops buying oil from Russia, that entire export market is dead for them—and let's be real, that is going to happen incredibly fast. It’s the exact same story with gas, though they make less off it, and you can bet Germany and their neighbors will still be importing it for quite a few more years.
Pipelines heading toward China are an eight-to-ten-year project at best, and that’s assuming China actually finds Russia more important than trading with the rest of the world. Plus, there's the question of whether they can even get those fields back online—I mean, can they really just swap out companies like Halliburton and the others? This supposed "energy superpower" isn't just dependent on the West for exports; they're also reliant on the West for a huge chunk of their actual production capabilities.

It looks like we’re seeing a soft embargo on Russian oil starting to take shape. After the Swedish people stepped up, now even the Dutch are refusing to unload cargo coming out of Russia.
https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/...paG-94i9g&s=19

I mean, think about it—Rotterdam is such a massive logistical powerhouse, especially when it comes to refining crude, I mean there are literally five different refineries right there in the port alone.

Just like the boss
🙂

The Bulgarian energy minister just announced they had their May advance payment kicked back because it wasn't paid in rubles.
The Russians are basically saying: - "Here, take your euros and go buy gas somewhere else. We only deal in rubles here."

Carl Lee27 said:It looks like we’re seeing a soft embargo on Russian oil starting to take shape. After the Swedish people stepped up, now even the Dutch are refusing to unload cargo coming out of Russia.
https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/...paG-94i9g&s=19

I mean, think about it—Rotterdam is such a massive logistical powerhouse, especially when it comes to refining crude, I mean there are literally five different refineries right there in the port alone.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...C5_YC2zZkqAAAA

Norway is stepping up too, banning Russian ships from passing through their territorial waters or docking at their ports, and they're even banning truck traffic.