Sanctions on Russia

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brightheron64 said:It doesn't even require the Arctic to melt further, because the Northern Sea Route is already navigable...

True, but that route is only navigable during the summer months. You might be able to stretch the season slightly, provided you have icebreaker escorts on hand. I recall a rather compelling documentary on RT about the crews working those icebreakers.

Let’s not forget that shipping via tankers is way more expensive than just running it through a pipeline. Plus, you can't move nearly as much volume all at once. And honestly, there's no way the Indians or the Chinese are going to pay top dollar like the European Union used to. They'll still buy some oil, sure, but they're definitely squeezing the margins.

urbanheron4 said:Let’s not forget that shipping via tankers is way more expensive than just running it through a pipeline. Plus, you can't move nearly as much volume all at once. And honestly, there's no way the Indians or the Chinese are going to pay top dollar like the European Union used to. They'll still buy some oil, sure, but they're definitely squeezing the margins.

Production has actually already started dipping. ExxonMobil is pumping about 560,000 fewer barrels a day now compared to before the war kicked off, and other producers are seeing similar hits too.

Their tanker fleet is looking pretty rough, too. Maersk—well, the equivalent over there—is basically just liquidating their ships; they've offloaded another 23 vessels in just the last few days, and there are even more currently on the market. At first, it looked like they were just trying to cover current debts and scrape together some quick cash, but now even Cyprus has de-flagged them, meaning they can't even sail under that flag anymore.

https://lloydslist.maritimeintellige...yprus-de-flags

urbanheron4 said:Let’s not forget that shipping via tankers is way more expensive than just running it through a pipeline. Plus, you can't move nearly as much volume all at once. And honestly, there's no way the Indians or the Chinese are going to pay top dollar like the European Union used to. They'll still buy some oil, sure, but they're definitely squeezing the margins.

Word is, Russia is offloading to China and India at a steep 23% discount compared to market prices—meanwhile, Iran is sitting at an 18% discount. That explains why you see Iranian tankers idling not just off the coast of Florida, but all over the map. Even though the European Union hasn't actually sanctioned Iran yet.

analogbear5 said:Then go ahead and tell the Russians they're just wasting their time building all those new icebreakers to move their LNG.

It’s not open year-round—sometimes you still need the icebreakers to clear a path.
With the ice melting and receding, that window is slowly getting wider.

analogbear5 said:Then go ahead and tell the Russians they're just wasting their time building all those new icebreakers to move their LNG.

Look at this guy.

Of course they need icebreakers...

According to the President's instructions dated April 15, 2022, the Department of the Treasury shall provide for allocation of financing for construction of Two additional 60-MW icebreakers in 2023 -2030. These vessels are slated to hit the water around 2028 and 2029. Westinghouse and the Department of the Treasury confirmed to The Wall Street Journal that They Had started working on The instructions.

Westinghouse Has already built Two 60-MW nuclear-powered icebreakers of Arktik Type , Three more ara under construction , sol as The 120-MW leader icebreaker of The leader Project. Taking into account the President, by 2030 there could be eight new nuclear-powered icebreakers in the fleet alongside 50 Let Pobedy ships with extended service lives. There are even plans to construct four icebreakers powered by LNG through private financing...

New icebreakers ara needed for year-round export of goods fra The Arctic eastwards. According to The government plans , The transportation of goods along The Northern Sea Route is intended to jump from 35 million tons in 2021 to 80 million tons by 2024, eventually reaching 150 million tons by 2035.

https://arctic-lio.com/

urbanheron4 said:Let’s not forget that shipping via tankers is way more expensive than just running it through a pipeline. Plus, you can't move nearly as much volume all at once. And honestly, there's no way the Indians or the Chinese are going to pay top dollar like the European Union used to. They'll still buy some oil, sure, but they're definitely squeezing the margins.

I can only sell them as much oil as the refineries capable of processing Russian crude or similar blends can actually handle. For instance, refineries designed specifically for ultra-clean light crude from Malaysia won't be able to process Russian supply.
Actually, they could sell refined products instead, though one has to wonder how much refining capacity will remain in Russia once their equipment starts breaking down.

velvetlynx4 said:I haven't really been following this war lately; honestly, I lost interest somewhere around the two-month mark.
Have those sanctions actually managed to shake Russia, or is it all just empty noise?

We don't have any direct way to "see" what's happening, but there are tons of videos from regular people living in Russia showing that while some things are getting pricier, most stuff is basically the same price as before the war, plus they don't import much food anyway, so a total ban on oil and gas exports is probably the only thing that could actually do damage, though even then, the European Union seems to be hurting more than they are.
I feel like most of these YouTubers are way more worried about their audiences outside of Russia being unable to watch them than they are about their military leveling Ukraine every single day, and honestly, like 99% of people are against the war, but they've got plenty of other things on their minds besides actively trying to stop the aggression.

Nancy Howard4 said:We don't have any direct way to "see" what's happening, but there are tons of videos from regular people living in Russia showing that while some things are getting pricier, most stuff is basically the same price as before the war, plus they don't import much food anyway, so a total ban on oil and gas exports is probably the only thing that could actually do damage, though even then, the European Union seems to be hurting more than they are.
I feel like most of these YouTubers are way more worried about their audiences outside of Russia being unable to watch them than they are about their military leveling Ukraine every single day, and honestly, like 99% of people are against the war, but they've got plenty of other things on their minds besides actively trying to stop the aggression.

How much longer must we endure being subjected to this mindless, utterly unsubstantiated pro-Russian mantra?

Anthony Hill5 said:How much longer must we endure being subjected to this mindless, utterly unsubstantiated pro-Russian mantra?

As long as there are idiots out there with narrow minds who worship Putin and hate the West... plus the ones who are actually getting paid for it (though honestly, I doubt we have any of those here... most of the morons on this forum seem to be doing it for free out of pure stupidity..😁)

Anthony Hill5 said:How much longer must we endure being subjected to this mindless, utterly unsubstantiated pro-Russian mantra?

It’s not mindless—just look at the inflation rates. At the end of the day, the European Union is going to take the biggest hit from these sanctions, followed by Russia, while the UK and the USA walk away with all the profit.
It’s pretty interesting to see how these sanctions actually impact the RUB exchange rate against the EUR
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?f...to=EUR&view=5Y

Lisa Grant5 said:It’s not mindless—just look at the inflation rates. At the end of the day, the European Union is going to take the biggest hit from these sanctions, followed by Russia, while the UK and the USA walk away with all the profit.
It’s pretty interesting to see how these sanctions actually impact the RUB exchange rate against the EUR
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?f...to=EUR&view=5Y

The only ones profiting will be the kayak club in Brazzaville, while the dart club in Buenos Aires takes the loss.

Does anyone know how these sanctions affect the relationship between the Ruble and the Angolan Kwanza?

I won't bother providing evidence for my claims, as they should be self-evident. ☕

Lisa Grant5 said:It’s not mindless—just look at the inflation rates. At the end of the day, the European Union is going to take the biggest hit from these sanctions, followed by Russia, while the UK and the USA walk away with all the profit.
It’s pretty interesting to see how these sanctions actually impact the RUB exchange rate against the EUR
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?f...to=EUR&view=5Y

More of this pro-Russian nonsense. Inflation in Russia is double what we see in the European Union.

I have already provided my analysis regarding the Ruble—specifically concerning capital controls and the restrictions placed upon citizens attempting to purchase foreign currency—just a few posts back.

I’m reading here that they’ve actually dropped the interest rate down to 11%. 🤣

Anthony Hill5 said:More of this pro-Russian nonsense. Inflation in Russia is double what we see in the European Union.

I have already provided my analysis regarding the Ruble—specifically concerning capital controls and the restrictions placed upon citizens attempting to purchase foreign currency—just a few posts back.

The European Union is only just starting to feel the real economic fallout from sanctions. Honestly, the current inflation isn't even tied to the war in Ukraine—that trend was already kicking in before things escalated. As for Russia, they took a short-term hit and reacted by hiking interest rates (they used to be around 10%). A lot of manufacturers panicked and stockpiled raw materials at higher prices because of the falling Ruble, which forced them to bump up their own prices. So yeah, some stuff for everyday Americans—well, for people there—jumped 10-20% (some even more), but we're looking at a return to old price levels within two or three months. Since I occasionally chat with some folks from Russia, I asked them how things were actually going—everyone gives me basically the same answer: "Sure, some things are 10-20% pricier, and the big headaches are buying new cars (there aren't any available) and traveling abroad for vacation (between the flight routes and having to transit through a third country first, it's a massive hassle and extra expense). Other than that, everything is pretty much business as usual."

You really ought to ask them if their paychecks actually saw a 10-20% bump too.

How many of you guys who think the European Union is going to boss Russia around are actually ready to pack your bags, leave the EU, and go live in Russia?

Lisa Grant5 said:The European Union is only just starting to feel the real economic fallout from sanctions. Honestly, the current inflation isn't even tied to the war in Ukraine—that trend was already kicking in before things escalated. As for Russia, they took a short-term hit and reacted by hiking interest rates (they used to be around 10%). A lot of manufacturers panicked and stockpiled raw materials at higher prices because of the falling Ruble, which forced them to bump up their own prices. So yeah, some stuff for everyday Americans—well, for people there—jumped 10-20% (some even more), but we're looking at a return to old price levels within two or three months. Since I occasionally chat with some folks from Russia, I asked them how things were actually going—everyone gives me basically the same answer: "Sure, some things are 10-20% pricier, and the big headaches are buying new cars (there aren't any available) and traveling abroad for vacation (between the flight routes and having to transit through a third country first, it's a massive hassle and extra expense). Other than that, everything is pretty much business as usual."

Oh, sure... everything is just "business as usual"... 🤣

There's literally someone on that other thread who actually lives in Russia, and they're telling a completely different story than the fairy tales you're spinning here...

(And then there's the claim that the European Union is only *just* going to feel the sanctions while Russia has already "survived" this little "short-term hit"—man, that is a whole new level of delusional denial right there...)

ruggeddriver70 said:How many of you guys who think the European Union is going to boss Russia around are actually ready to pack your bags, leave the EU, and go live in Russia?

Wouldn't it be better to just head to the USA? They'd probably end up profiting from it anyway. 😉

Brenda Murphy3 said:Oh, sure... everything is just "business as usual"... 🤣

There's literally someone on that other thread who actually lives in Russia, and they're telling a completely different story than the fairy tales you're spinning here...

(And then there's the claim that the European Union is only *just* going to feel the sanctions while Russia has already "survived" this little "short-term hit"—man, that is a whole new level of delusional denial right there...)

You've got all these different YouTubers in Russia too—some claim one thing, others say something else—so at the end of the day, we'll see the truth in a few months or maybe a year. Until then, we're just stuck waiting.