Sanctions on Russia

I haven't really been following this war lately; honestly, I lost interest somewhere around the two-month mark.
Have those sanctions actually managed to shake Russia, or is it all just empty noise?

velvetlynx4 said:I haven't really been following this war lately; honestly, I lost interest somewhere around the two-month mark.
Have those sanctions actually managed to shake Russia, or is it all just empty noise?

They have. It's hard for anyone here to truly grasp the impact unless they're seeing the economic reality firsthand—like having direct contacts on the ground. Sometimes economic analysis uses "terms" that mask what's actually happening, or you have to dig through different sources to crunch your own stats.

The same goes for me; scrolling through Russian news is useless right now. I don't care how much food is on their shelves. I know wages are being slashed, and all those "protesters" are probably out there sewing uniforms for free or doing odd jobs just to scrape by. The math is simple: they’re sprinting toward hyperinflation.🤣

Right now, Russia looks like one of the few places actually fighting off inflation. Honestly, once they were kicked out of Swift, the very value of their currency is going to shift into something else entirely.

We're talking about the Ruble moving from $0.008. There's no way people are getting rich here; if anything, they might just maintain a decent standard of living. Sanctions are essentially the foundation of "modern civilization"—this is what happens when weapons fall into the wrong hands. It's a massive choice: we either use our endless arsenal to blow up the world, or we use it to reset civilization.

velvetlynx4 said:I haven't really been following this war lately; honestly, I lost interest somewhere around the two-month mark.
Have those sanctions actually managed to shake Russia, or is it all just empty noise?

Russia is actually making bank off high oil prices—plus they're raking it in on grain by hiking prices to fill the gap left by the Ukrainian exports they've blocked.

It just ups the risk of famine, especially for the struggling folks in countries that relied on wheat from Ukraine. It’s perfect leverage for blackmail.

This is going to trigger the next massive wave of refugees heading into Europe—something the Russians always seem to enjoy. So, technically, they're winning this fight against the West.

analogbear5 said:Russia is actually making bank off high oil prices—plus they're raking it in on grain by hiking prices to fill the gap left by the Ukrainian exports they've blocked.

It just ups the risk of famine, especially for the struggling folks in countries that relied on wheat from Ukraine. It’s perfect leverage for blackmail.

This is going to trigger the next massive wave of refugees heading into Europe—something the Russians always seem to enjoy. So, technically, they're winning this fight against the West.

Sure, but look at the importers from Africa—those are the ones actually needing that wheat. You can find the data on production, exports, and imports easily enough. We poured so much money into Ukraine to help them win that we'll likely see more wheat than we know what to do with. If anyone is truly in a bind over this specific supply issue, it might just be Turkey.

The Ruble should basically collapse under its own weight; production is already tanking:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin...040000848.html

But prices jumped. The Arabs are loving it.

So, I spent some time yesterday falling down a YouTube rabbit hole—watching this Russian creator who’s been posting for over 20 years now—comparing how much everything cost back before February versus how it looks today...

These are nothing more than "sanctions" 🤣🤣

darkwolf20 said:Everything is absolutely wonderful for a Russian bot living in Russia. If I had actually entertained the idea of hoarding some rubles for savings, I’d have to wonder where exactly one would go to find them. Perhaps we should all try moving some actual capital instead of just shouting into the void on this forum.

The safest bet for those euros you’re planning to "invest" is to shove them in your pocket, hop on a flight from Washington, D.C. to Moscow, and call it a day. Once there, swap your dollars for rubles and head back home to watch your investment go up in smoke. Honestly, you’d be better off gambling that money away right here at home; you'll at least walk away with some memories, and you might actually help a local small business owner in the process.

Bryan Jones82 said:I’ve been checking out grocery prices lately, and man, some stuff is getting ridiculously expensive:

Tomatoes are over $10, potatoes are up $3.25, apples are way past $6.75.... Part of it is because the dollar is getting stronger, making things look pricier when you convert them, but honestly, most of it is just plain old inflation.

The prices don't just "look" higher; they actually are higher, even for Russians. There are tons of people over there filming videos and putting them on YouTube where they walk through grocery stores showing the old versus the new prices and the percentage increases.

As for the exchange rate, they can manipulate that however they want when their currency isn't being traded freely on the open market. But once it hits the global market, that artificial rate tends to vanish.

Brenda Murphy3 said:Look, sorry, but do you seriously believe this stuff you're typing? Thousands of Russians have already opened offshore accounts abroad just to stash their hard-earned cash. And let's be real—there isn't a single person left in Russia who wouldn't sprint to the bank tomorrow to swap their Rubles for Dollars at this rate if they actually could... but they can't. That right there is all the proof you need regarding how "strong" this Ruble actually is.

The whole "do you actually believe this?" routine is basically becoming part of my personal folklore whenever I post something. ☕

You bring up those thousands of Russians opening overseas accounts—but thousands isn't exactly a massive slice of the population. Most Russians probably haven't even bothered with foreign accounts.

Besides, there are easier ways to dump Rubles into something with actual value. I assume people in Russia are still buying gold, jewelry, diamonds, or whatever else holds its worth.

Sure, the exchange rate might stabilize eventually since it’s shot up over 100% from its lowest point. I'm seeing signs that companies are starting to loosen up those mandatory Ruble conversion rules.

But most people aren't Wall Street speculators looking for an exit. When something climbs too high, the naive assumption is always that it’ll just keep going up.

And let's not forget the luck factor—some folks actually dodged a bullet because they couldn't get their hands on Dollars or Euros at the start of the conflict, leaving them holding Rubles. Back then, everyone was desperate to swap, but I'd bet that frantic interest has cooled off quite a bit by now.

darkwolf20 said:Everything is absolutely wonderful for a Russian bot living in Russia. If I had actually entertained the idea of hoarding some rubles for savings, I’d have to wonder where exactly one would go to find them. Perhaps we should all try moving some actual capital instead of just shouting into the void on this forum.

Here we go again with the same old trolling nonsense.

The old lady with the cookies probably helped Ursula and Joe make sure you can't touch any rubles anytime soon. 🤣

Russia isn't all perfect—obviously—and they're feeling the heat.
But let’s be real: that massive economic collapse everyone predicted—you know, the currency meltdown that's supposed to be one of their biggest weaknesses—just hasn't happened yet. So, unfortunately, we’re stuck dealing with them for a long time, staring each other down through scopes for decades to come.
We were doing fine using them for cheap energy—we even had cheaper gas coming out of Asia—until someone decided to poke the bear with color revolutions and uprisings. If we hadn't played it that way, things wouldn't be such a mess.

wiredseal7 said:Here we go again with the same old trolling nonsense.

The old lady with the cookies probably helped Ursula and Joe make sure you can't touch any rubles anytime soon. 🤣

Russia isn't all perfect—obviously—and they're feeling the heat.
But let’s be real: that massive economic collapse everyone predicted—you know, the currency meltdown that's supposed to be one of their biggest weaknesses—just hasn't happened yet. So, unfortunately, we’re stuck dealing with them for a long time, staring each other down through scopes for decades to come.
We were doing fine using them for cheap energy—we even had cheaper gas coming out of Asia—until someone decided to poke the bear with color revolutions and uprisings. If we hadn't played it that way, things wouldn't be such a mess.

How do you even label this phenomenon where the currency gets twice as strong against the dollar, but then paradoxically, prices in that stronger currency also jump by about 2x, effectively making everything 4x more expensive in dollar terms?🤔 Is there some kind of economic genius out there who can explain this to me? I also don't see how on earth this is supposed to be "good" for Americans. Thanks.

wiredseal7 said:The whole "do you actually believe this?" routine is basically becoming part of my personal folklore whenever I post something. ☕

You bring up those thousands of Russians opening overseas accounts—but thousands isn't exactly a massive slice of the population. Most Russians probably haven't even bothered with foreign accounts.

Besides, there are easier ways to dump Rubles into something with actual value. I assume people in Russia are still buying gold, jewelry, diamonds, or whatever else holds its worth.

Sure, the exchange rate might stabilize eventually since it’s shot up over 100% from its lowest point. I'm seeing signs that companies are starting to loosen up those mandatory Ruble conversion rules.

But most people aren't Wall Street speculators looking for an exit. When something climbs too high, the naive assumption is always that it’ll just keep going up.

And let's not forget the luck factor—some folks actually dodged a bullet because they couldn't get their hands on Dollars or Euros at the start of the conflict, leaving them holding Rubles. Back then, everyone was desperate to swap, but I'd bet that frantic interest has cooled off quite a bit by now.

Have you ever looked at how wealth is distributed in Russia? About 73% of the people don't even have $10,000, while a tiny 0.2% sits on top of more than $1 million USD.
As for the economic structure? If you strip away everything tied to energy and raw materials—which makes up 80% of the economy—what's actually left? And to make things interesting, 65% of those resources head straight to Western Europe, naturally.

wiredseal7 said:Here we go again with the same old trolling nonsense.

The old lady with the cookies probably helped Ursula and Joe make sure you can't touch any rubles anytime soon. 🤣

Russia isn't all perfect—obviously—and they're feeling the heat.
But let’s be real: that massive economic collapse everyone predicted—you know, the currency meltdown that's supposed to be one of their biggest weaknesses—just hasn't happened yet. So, unfortunately, we’re stuck dealing with them for a long time, staring each other down through scopes for decades to come.
We were doing fine using them for cheap energy—we even had cheaper gas coming out of Asia—until someone decided to poke the bear with color revolutions and uprisings. If we hadn't played it that way, things wouldn't be such a mess.

How much of their budget is actually fueled by exporting energy and raw materials to Europe?
Around 40%?

wiredseal7 said:Here we go again with the same old trolling nonsense.

The old lady with the cookies probably helped Ursula and Joe make sure you can't touch any rubles anytime soon. 🤣

Russia isn't all perfect—obviously—and they're feeling the heat.
But let’s be real: that massive economic collapse everyone predicted—you know, the currency meltdown that's supposed to be one of their biggest weaknesses—just hasn't happened yet. So, unfortunately, we’re stuck dealing with them for a long time, staring each other down through scopes for decades to come.
We were doing fine using them for cheap energy—we even had cheaper gas coming out of Asia—until someone decided to poke the bear with color revolutions and uprisings. If we hadn't played it that way, things wouldn't be such a mess.

I honestly don't know who—if anyone here—was actually banking on a currency collapse. I mean, seriously, how do you even tank the currency of a country that pumps out that much raw material?! People on this forum seem to think the exchange rate is some massive indicator of everything under the sun. It isn't. Right now, the value of the ruble against the dollar or the euro is basically just a reflection of the balance of payments—and since they're exporting huge amounts of commodities (high demand for rubles = high price) while imports have cratered because of sanctions (nothing coming in = low supply of rubles), the math is simple.

A strong ruble makes importing easier and lets importers grab some profit, but what exactly are they importing, and from where?

Oil is flowing straight into China and India... though India has pulled back just a tiny bit lately. Meanwhile, China is predictably snapping up Russian oil at prices under $100—though heaven knows what kind of currency they're actually using for the transaction.

Oil exports diverted to China for the tenth time.

European pipelines definitely aren't seeing any of that.

Also, regarding that last sentence above—it’s imports to Russia, not imports from Russia.

Sure, obviously—but it doesn't have to be via pipeline; they can just use tankers. Plus, with the Arctic melting like crazy, the Northwest Passage is becoming a viable route to Asia.

dustyowl29 said:Sure, obviously—but it doesn't have to be via pipeline; they can just use tankers. Plus, with the Arctic melting like crazy, the Northwest Passage is becoming a viable route to Asia.

It doesn't even require the Arctic to melt further, because the Northern Sea Route is already navigable...

Then go ahead and tell the Russians they're just wasting their time building all those new icebreakers to move their LNG.