Sanctions on Russia

Jack Hill2 said:Based on your comment, I wouldn't expect Russia's GDP to drop by 10% while the EU grows by 2% this year. It should be the exact opposite...

But who cares about GDP? It’s all about Lavrov and Putin...

I’m sitting here asking the same thing you are after scrolling through that Guardian piece. Here's my take on it.

bluerider63 said:I’m sitting here asking the same thing you are after scrolling through that Guardian piece. Here's my take on it.

Did you actually read it? Or even grasp it?

bluerider63 said:I’m sitting here asking the same thing you are after scrolling through that Guardian piece. Here's my take on it.

What does this article even have to do with the war in Ukraine?

If the point is that Europe will suffer because of this conflict, that's obvious. The war is happening in Europe, and it isn't their fault. They would suffer regardless of what they do...

But if you want to measure something specific, use the actual data that's already out there instead of this nonsense.

Everything we're dealing with today because of Russia... if they ever want to be part of the European community again, they'll have to pay for the damage they caused.

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swiftjackal11 said:Everything we're dealing with today because of Russia... if they ever want to be part of the European community again, they'll have to pay for the damage they caused.

That’s exactly what happened when they headed toward Germany after World War I—turns out, that wasn't exactly the smartest move.
It’s way better to make sure some kind of actual democracy actually takes root and sticks in Russia.

Kyle Murphy81 said:Does this mean Russia itself is merely an instrument in the Chinese hand? Let’s be realistic—without Chinese imports, all that Russian weaponry would be utterly useless.
China clearly sees an interest in this conflict. Given how massive and resource-rich Russia is, perhaps it actually serves China's interests to let this war drag on until Russia loses as many people as possible.
Is it even possible that the West and China are quietly negotiating a way to divide Russia among themselves?

After all, if a nation as vast as Russia cannot design and provide chips, Intel processors, computers, advanced composite materials, and other high-end technology—offering nothing but magic tricks and ideology instead—then what on earth are we even looking at?

China is gonna end up shaking hands with the West—specifically the USA, since they're the ones running circles around them and their main global rival—to just slice Russia into pieces.🤦
If something like that actually happened in some crazy version of reality—which, obviously, neither the Chinese nor the Americans are even thinking about—it would pretty much trigger a thermonuclear cataclysm.

Lisa Jackson7 said:"Quote:"

That’s exactly what happened when they headed toward Germany after World War I—turns out, that wasn't exactly the smartest move.
It’s way better to make sure some kind of actual democracy actually takes root and sticks in Russia.

Exactly. That's why the second war even happened. People just don't learn from their mistakes.🙂

Is there really any point in even engaging with this?

Jack Hill2 said:What does this article even have to do with the war in Ukraine?

If the point is that Europe will suffer because of this conflict, that's obvious. The war is happening in Europe, and it isn't their fault. They would suffer regardless of what they do...

But if you want to measure something specific, use the actual data that's already out there instead of this nonsense.

Europe is primarily feeling the sting because of the sanctions leveled against Russia, all stemming from this decision to take action in the first place. If nothing had been done at all, wouldn't we be spared these massive complications, leaving us only with the task of managing the Ukrainian refugees, which seems to be holding up reasonably well?

Ronald Chavez2 said:Is there really any point in even engaging with this?

Europe is primarily feeling the sting because of the sanctions leveled against Russia, all stemming from this decision to take action in the first place. If nothing had been done at all, wouldn't we be spared these massive complications, leaving us only with the task of managing the Ukrainian refugees, which seems to be holding up reasonably well?

Real change doesn't happen overnight. Sure, things are rough now, but in a few years, you'll see the economy in Europe bounce back fast. By then, nobody will even remember Russia anymore. Well, except for the Russians and their allies.

Jack Hill2 said:From what I can gather, all the forecasts suggest Russia's GDP will drop by about 10% this year.

The impact of sanctions is undeniable. Without them, they would be seeing growth. Some sectors might be performing better or worse than expected, but there is no question that sanctions have hit them hard.

However, I believe the military blow is what hurts them most. Even before these sanctions, Russia's economy was already struggling, much like Italy's economic situation. They were essentially a broken economy even before the restrictions kicked in. Population-wise, they have fewer people than the two largest countries in the EU, let alone the rest of Europe. They simply aren't, and cannot be, a global player. Their only two real arguments were their military and their natural resources.

1. Militarily, they've been stalled just a few miles from their own borders without even needing NATO to step in. That says everything you need to know about their status as a global superpower.

2. As for energy, they've been brushed off. In five years, Europe likely won't give a damn about their energy supplies because they'll have organized alternative channels. Good luck to them trying to blackmail China or India... those are ten times larger and more powerful nations, and they're only going to get stronger...

Just a quick refresher on how GDP actually works:

GDP = private consumption + government spending + investment + (exports - imports)

So, let's play around with the numbers. Say, imports have definitely dropped because of sanctions—which, technically, would bump up the GDP.

swiftjackal11 said:Real change doesn't happen overnight. Sure, things are rough now, but in a few years, you'll see the economy in Europe bounce back fast. By then, nobody will even remember Russia anymore. Well, except for the Russians and their allies.

I wish I could share your optimism, but it all feels a bit detached from reality. Given how this started, aren't we just looking at a future where we're stuck buying more expensive American gas while completely severing ties with Russia, which basically sets the stage for stunted economic growth, assuming there's any growth left to speak of?

Ronald Chavez2 said:I wish I could share your optimism, but it all feels a bit detached from reality. Given how this started, aren't we just looking at a future where we're stuck buying more expensive American gas while completely severing ties with Russia, which basically sets the stage for stunted economic growth, assuming there's any growth left to speak of?

So, what's the actual price on that American gas? Let's look at the numbers.

Ronald Chavez2 said:I wish I could share your optimism, but it all feels a bit detached from reality. Given how this started, aren't we just looking at a future where we're stuck buying more expensive American gas while completely severing ties with Russia, which basically sets the stage for stunted economic growth, assuming there's any growth left to speak of?

Here we go again. American gas can only cover such a small slice of what Europe needs, and let's be real—buyers for American gas in Asia have always been there, and they aren't going anywhere.

Any gas on the planet that isn't Russian is going to cost more. Plus, Russian gas comes with a non-monetary price tag—namely, those "political favors" we used to get.

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Jack Hill2 Asks: Reading through your take, I can't help but wonder—wouldn't it be far more plausible to expect a 10 percent contraction in Russia's GDP alongside a 2 percent growth in the US this year, rather than the exact opposite of what you've suggested? Honestly, who even cares about GDP figures anymore when all anyone wants to talk about is Sergey Lavrov and Vladimir Putin?

What is the point of seeing a two percent increase in your salary when inflation is sitting at ten or even twenty percent?

Dana Robinson4 said:"Quote:"

Jack Hill2 Asks: Reading through your take, I can't help but wonder—wouldn't it be far more plausible to expect a 10 percent contraction in Russia's GDP alongside a 2 percent growth in the US this year, rather than the exact opposite of what you've suggested? Honestly, who even cares about GDP figures anymore when all anyone wants to talk about is Sergey Lavrov and Vladimir Putin?

What is the point of seeing a two percent increase in your salary when inflation is sitting at ten or even twenty percent?

Care to explain how inflation actually messes with GDP growth?

swiftjackal11 said:So, what's the actual price on that American gas? Let's look at the numbers.

If you're looking for answers, here is an analysis including forecasts on price trends and the extraction costs in several key nations. Personally, I find the figure claiming shale oil extraction costs only $23.50 a bit hard to swallow; in my experience, most data I've come across suggests those costs sit closer to $40 per barrel. It’s also concerning to me that fracking technology acts as such a massive polluter—especially regarding groundwater—and that these reserves tend to deplete quite rapidly.

Of course, if you're willing to dig a little deeper, you can certainly find more granular data out there.

That said, according to statistics from Rystad Energy, the average cost of such operations in the United States has been roughly $23.35 per barrel. To put that into perspective, pulling a single barrel of oil out of the ground in Saudi Arabia costs about $9, while in Russia, it's around $19. However, many oil-producing nations—think Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Mozambique, Libya, and even Russia—rely heavily on foreign revenue and oil taxes to function. But for those revenues to actually cover national expenditures, calculations from Fitch Ratings suggest that Kuwait would need oil at $45 a barrel, and for Bahrain, it might need to hit as high as $84.

https://www.dw.com/en/what-happens-to-oil-prices/a-43279403
https://bljesak.info/business/flash/...-cak-38/117543

We're talking gas here, not oil.

Tell the Chinese they're doing it wrong if they want to talk about fracking.

analogbear5 said:Care to explain how inflation actually messes with GDP growth?

Are you truly asking me that?

The United States will grant permission for two companies from Venezuela to supply oil to Europe.😁

analogbear5 said:We're talking gas here, not oil.

Tell the Chinese they're doing it wrong if they want to talk about fracking.

The reality is that the techniques used are essentially the same.

It’s something being done across Europe as well, though it tends to stir up a lot of controversy and raises plenty of questions that we likely won't see fully answered until much later down the road.

https://www.nytimes.com/news/environment/fracking-controversy-europe-15179705