Sanctions on Russia

Man, if the price hits $80, even the Chinese won't be touching ExxonMobil anymore.

Seriously, nobody is going to buy that oil. I’m telling you—it’s gonna be an environmental nightmare because they'll just have to dump all that excess oil into the ocean since there's zero demand left.

Europe is militarily weak without the US.

.

Honestly? Europe could crush Russia conventionally—and pretty easily at that, I guess.
It's just that, unlike Russia, Europe isn't really prepared to handle the body count—you know, the soldiers and civilians lost in a fight like that.

William Anderson5 said:Putin started cutting back on the gas to stop Western countries from filling up their storage facilities before autumn, trying to prevent them from being ready for a total supply shutdown this winter...

The largest underground gas storage facility in all of Europe, located in Redding, Lower Saxony, was actually owned by... guess who? ExxonMobil.
They say it’s so massive it could supply gas to two million households for an entire year.
Right now, it's sitting at a pathetic 0.5% capacity.🤔

And that isn't even the only storage site in Germany that was under the thumb of... ExxonMobil.🤔

When the Russian aggression first kicked off, gas storage in Germany was about 23% full... currently, it’s at 59%.

Beyond the sheer, staggering naivety shown by Germany... one really has to wonder just how much Vladimir Putin played them for fools in the gas business, and how enormously the Russians profited from it.
They controlled the pipelines, they controlled the storage, and of course, they controlled the gas itself... it was a perfect setup.

A situation like that? You'll hardly ever see anything quite like it again.

Best,

George Robinson43 said:Once Venezuela and Iran return to the global market, prices will drop significantly lower than $80!

Well, oops...

So, what kind of logic are we working with here? 😲
Are we supposed to believe Iranian oil is perfectly fine, even if it's basically funding an A-Bomb aimed at Israel? 🤔

brightheron64 said:Of course it would, absolutely. We’re talking about a strategic non-nuclear strike by an international coalition...

But, well, we’ve been waiting for that miracle for months now, haven't we? Honestly, should we just open up a betting parlor to see which happens first—prices going up or down?
It wouldn't even surprise me if the Saudi Crown Prince ordered a massive new yacht that practically paid for itself... I mean, one day you're looking at $100 per barrel, and the next it's jumped to $120, almost overnight...

Sure, but if we gamble on "producing less to drive up prices" and end up triggering the recession everyone is starting to whisper about... well, who knows? Suddenly, that "tomorrow" price could plummet to $45.
As they say over in Germany, economics isn't a one-way street.🤔

lp

brightheron64 said:Well, oops...

So, what kind of logic are we working with here? 😲
Are we supposed to believe Iranian oil is perfectly fine, even if it's basically funding an A-Bomb aimed at Israel? 🤔

Some sanctions on Iran were actually rolled back in early 2016. As soon as that was announced, oil prices plummeted to $28. So, really, where is the issue?

Donald Trump brought those back and took out Qasem Soleimani. He also tightened the screws on Venezuela with even harsher sanctions.
But now, Donald Trump is gone.

Bryan Booth82 said:Sure, but if we gamble on "producing less to drive up prices" and end up triggering the recession everyone is starting to whisper about... well, who knows? Suddenly, that "tomorrow" price could plummet to $45.
As they say over in Germany, economics isn't a one-way street.🤔

lp

Yeah, and then America will surely become the world champion in soccer too.

If you’re planning on hurting someone else, you really ought to think about how that might end up biting you in the backside first... "Call M for murder," as they say...

Fine, go ahead with boycotts and restrictions, but please, put some actual thought into the full strategy and all its consequences instead of just acting on pure impulse. It’s a good thing they haven't come up with a trick to thin out the oxygen in the atmosphere just to subdue the Russians and force them into submission...

The way things are going, it feels like the world is being run by a group of fools who were handed unlimited power by an even larger collection of idiots—whether following the rules of that famous process called "democracy" or the old-fashioned divine right of kings...

George Robinson43 said:Some sanctions on Iran were actually rolled back in early 2016. As soon as that was announced, oil prices plummeted to $28. So, really, where is the issue?

Donald Trump brought those back and took out Qasem Soleimani. He also tightened the screws on Venezuela with even harsher sanctions.
But now, Donald Trump is gone.

Yeah.

I actually got confirmation yesterday down at the gas station. There's plenty of fuel to go around... though it's a shame nobody has engineered an engine that runs on milk yet...

brightheron64 said:Yeah, and then America will surely become the world champion in soccer too.

If you’re planning on hurting someone else, you really ought to think about how that might end up biting you in the backside first... "Call M for murder," as they say...

Fine, go ahead with boycotts and restrictions, but please, put some actual thought into the full strategy and all its consequences instead of just acting on pure impulse. It’s a good thing they haven't come up with a trick to thin out the oxygen in the atmosphere just to subdue the Russians and force them into submission...

The way things are going, it feels like the world is being run by a group of fools who were handed unlimited power by an even larger collection of idiots—whether following the rules of that famous process called "democracy" or the old-fashioned divine right of kings...

Yeah.

I actually got confirmation yesterday down at the gas station. There's plenty of fuel to go around... though it's a shame nobody has engineered an engine that runs on milk yet...

Sanctions aren't gonna fix anything in a week, and this war isn't ending in a week either. We'll see what happens when oil prices tank and everything else drops, or once the EU finds a real alternative to gas. That's when we'll actually see how much capacity Russia has left for any kind of fighting—not just this mess, but whatever comes down the pike in the next few years. Just enough time for their other neighbors to bail on them too. The EU will eventually bounce back from the crisis, but Russia? Stuck under sanctions, weighed down by this special operation, and losing their big EU customer who used to buy cheap gas and oil... man, they're in for it.

Oil prices have dipped a bit over the last few days, sitting at $104 right now. Still, that’s way too high if you ask me.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF?p=CL%3DF

Arthur Miller7 said:Sanctions aren't gonna fix anything in a week, and this war isn't ending in a week either. We'll see what happens when oil prices tank and everything else drops, or once the EU finds a real alternative to gas. That's when we'll actually see how much capacity Russia has left for any kind of fighting—not just this mess, but whatever comes down the pike in the next few years. Just enough time for their other neighbors to bail on them too. The EU will eventually bounce back from the crisis, but Russia? Stuck under sanctions, weighed down by this special operation, and losing their big EU customer who used to buy cheap gas and oil... man, they're in for it.

Oh please, let's not get carried away with such lofty optimism...

Let’s try some very basic math here... suppose Russian oil and gas production accounts for roughly 10% of global consumption...

If you shut that off, you’re suddenly missing 10% of your supply that needs replacing. And then what happens...?
Do you honestly think that the other 90% of producers are going to be all altruistic and decide to keep prices steady, or better yet, lower them because they just love us so much?

Let's look at it from a more practical, everyday perspective... imagine you have an abundance of gasoline, while I'm left with nothing...
- The first time, maybe you'll give me some for free because you're such a saint...
- The second time, you'll sell it to me at the standard market rate...
- But the third time? You'll cut me off and tell me it's either a 20% markup or I can start walking...

brightheron64 said:Yeah, and then America will surely become the world champion in soccer too.

If you’re planning on hurting someone else, you really ought to think about how that might end up biting you in the backside first... "Call M for murder," as they say...

Fine, go ahead with boycotts and restrictions, but please, put some actual thought into the full strategy and all its consequences instead of just acting on pure impulse. It’s a good thing they haven't come up with a trick to thin out the oxygen in the atmosphere just to subdue the Russians and force them into submission...

The way things are going, it feels like the world is being run by a group of fools who were handed unlimited power by an even larger collection of idiots—whether following the rules of that famous process called "democracy" or the old-fashioned divine right of kings...

Yeah.

I actually got confirmation yesterday down at the gas station. There's plenty of fuel to go around... though it's a shame nobody has engineered an engine that runs on milk yet...

Once oil prices finally drop and the recession starts to fade, I expect you'll be coming back here to write those posts where you tell us all, "as I always told you..." or "just as I predicted..."🤣

If we are already effectively in a proxy war with Russia, then it stands to reason that the most effective strike would be hitting them exactly where it hurts most—their primary source of income.
Best regards,

brightheron64 said:Oh please, let's not get carried away with such lofty optimism...

Let’s try some very basic math here... suppose Russian oil and gas production accounts for roughly 10% of global consumption...

If you shut that off, you’re suddenly missing 10% of your supply that needs replacing. And then what happens...?
Do you honestly think that the other 90% of producers are going to be all altruistic and decide to keep prices steady, or better yet, lower them because they just love us so much?

Let's look at it from a more practical, everyday perspective... imagine you have an abundance of gasoline, while I'm left with nothing...
- The first time, maybe you'll give me some for free because you're such a saint...
- The second time, you'll sell it to me at the standard market rate...
- But the third time? You'll cut me off and tell me it's either a 20% markup or I can start walking...

And I say, forget you, I'm just getting in my Tesla. That leaves Russia to fight the Middle Eastern players over the derivatives market. Besides, those Russian oligarchs have already moved all their profits over to the West anyway.

Bryan Booth82 said:If we’re already fighting Russia indirectly, it makes sense to hit them right where it hurts—their wallet. That's their only real lifeline.
Lp

Yeah, well, if the whole damn world played by America's rules, maybe that would work, but since it doesn't, they're actually raking in more cash from those resources now than they ever have before. So, that logic you've got going there? It just doesn't hold much water.

wearytrucker22 said:And I say, forget you, I'm just getting in my Tesla. That leaves Russia to fight the Middle Eastern players over the derivatives market. Besides, those Russian oligarchs have already moved all their profits over to the West anyway.

Well, aren't you something. I suppose your Tesla will be powered by an endless supply of hydroelectric dams, solar farms, and wind turbines...

And if you decide to go out and plant a couple of electrodes in the dirt, I'm sure everything will just start growing like... some kind of magic beanstalk...

brightheron64 said:Oh please, let's not get carried away with such lofty optimism...

Let’s try some very basic math here... suppose Russian oil and gas production accounts for roughly 10% of global consumption...

If you shut that off, you’re suddenly missing 10% of your supply that needs replacing. And then what happens...?
Do you honestly think that the other 90% of producers are going to be all altruistic and decide to keep prices steady, or better yet, lower them because they just love us so much?

Let's look at it from a more practical, everyday perspective... imagine you have an abundance of gasoline, while I'm left with nothing...
- The first time, maybe you'll give me some for free because you're such a saint...
- The second time, you'll sell it to me at the standard market rate...
- But the third time? You'll cut me off and tell me it's either a 20% markup or I can start walking...

But what shortage are we even talking about?

The pro-Russian crowd keeps harping on about how India and China are going to vacuum up all that Russian oil.

But if we use basic logic—those two countries only have so much capacity to consume or store stuff, and most of their oil currently comes from the Middle East. That means they’ll naturally end up buying less from the Arab states. Those producers aren't exactly going to turn off the taps just to do Russia a favor; instead, they’ll pivot that supply toward wherever the demand is highest—which is Western markets—and the whole loop closes itself.

At the end of the day, this current price spike isn't really about a physical shortage; it's driven by speculators who are pumping up prices by grabbing production quotas early, fueled by that "hey, there might be supply issues later, better safe than sorry" mindset.

Bryan Booth82 said:Once oil prices finally drop and the recession starts to fade, I expect you'll be coming back here to write those posts where you tell us all, "as I always told you..." or "just as I predicted..."🤣

If we are already effectively in a proxy war with Russia, then it stands to reason that the most effective strike would be hitting them exactly where it hurts most—their primary source of income.
Best regards,

Even if prices do fall—which, heaven knows, I truly hope they will—the damage has already been done on such a massive scale...

When we discuss sanctions against Russia, the real crux of the matter isn't just about price drops (which feel like nothing more than pure speculation), but rather determining which specific price points and supply levels will actually make Putin uncomfortable. As long as he can afford to undercut everyone else by offering lower prices... well, we're all essentially just whistling in the wind...

hollowdriver13 said:But what shortage are we even talking about?

The pro-Russian crowd keeps harping on about how India and China are going to vacuum up all that Russian oil.

But if we use basic logic—those two countries only have so much capacity to consume or store stuff, and most of their oil currently comes from the Middle East. That means they’ll naturally end up buying less from the Arab states. Those producers aren't exactly going to turn off the taps just to do Russia a favor; instead, they’ll pivot that supply toward wherever the demand is highest—which is Western markets—and the whole loop closes itself.

At the end of the day, this current price spike isn't really about a physical shortage; it's driven by speculators who are pumping up prices by grabbing production quotas early, fueled by that "hey, there might be supply issues later, better safe than sorry" mindset.

I certainly hope you're right about that...🙏

brightheron64 said:Oh please, let's not get carried away with such lofty optimism...

Let’s try some very basic math here... suppose Russian oil and gas production accounts for roughly 10% of global consumption...

If you shut that off, you’re suddenly missing 10% of your supply that needs replacing. And then what happens...?
Do you honestly think that the other 90% of producers are going to be all altruistic and decide to keep prices steady, or better yet, lower them because they just love us so much?

Let's look at it from a more practical, everyday perspective... imagine you have an abundance of gasoline, while I'm left with nothing...
- The first time, maybe you'll give me some for free because you're such a saint...
- The second time, you'll sell it to me at the standard market rate...
- But the third time? You'll cut me off and tell me it's either a 20% markup or I can start walking...

Where is this idea about shutting down Russian production coming from? Wasn't the claim that "Russia will easily substitute its markets and expand its oil and gas exports"???
What actually happened? If they stop production, they'll be stuck in the Dark Ages. Are they really going to just turn it off?

urbanheron4 said:Oil prices have dipped a bit over the last few days, sitting at $104 right now. Still, that’s way too high if you ask me.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF?p=CL%3DF

I wonder how low the barrel price needs to drop before we see gas under $3.25🤷

swiftjackal11 said:I wonder how low the barrel price needs to drop before we see gas under $3.25🤷

Back when we were seeing gas around $3.25-$$3.75, Brent was sitting right at about $85
a barrel.

The sanctions against Russia were hammered out by all 27 EU member states and backed by essentially unanimous resolutions from the European Parliament. Does it really seem plausible that every single one of them is simply too incompetent to grasp the situation, somehow requiring us to blindly take Putin and Zakharov at their word?

Back in July 2008, we saw crude hit a record high of $147 a barrel. Even then, gas was sitting at $9.75 and diesel was $3.25. Basically, oil was about 40 percent more expensive back then, yet fuel prices were actually 20 to 30 percent lower than they are now. What's the catch? Why is everything so pricey today?
And back then, there wasn't any conflict with Russia or Ukraine.