Sanctions on Russia

Bryan Booth82 said:Sure, but there is a massive, fundamental difference between an economy built solely on selling raw materials and fuel, and one built on processing those materials using energy.
I shouldn't even have to point out that the latter always walks away with the lion's share of the profit, while the former remains perpetually dependent.
Ebiga, it comes down to simple math: higher margins and much greater value creation.
Russian gas or oil will never be worth nearly as much as a precision machine built in Germany.
Best regards.

feralhawk45 said:You completely misread my quote. That's the Chinese perspective. They're pivoting their entire energy infrastructure to prepare for future tech—maybe even more aggressively than most of the developed West.

Bad news for the West, as the ‘Chinese model’ becomes the most desirable: ‘Forget democracy, just feed us!‘

urbanotter said:Well, look, you can definitely make a killing processing raw goods, provided you actually have something to process in the first place.

Maybe those advanced nations that rely on high-level manufacturing have figured out how to just pour water into a tank, toss in some powder they picked up at Walmart

and suddenly the car goes absolutely nuts, making a standard 100-horsepower engine scream like it's got a herd of 500 horses under the hood.

If we could pull off a trick like that with Coca-Cola, why couldn't we do it with diesel? 🤷

Bryan Booth82 said:Sure, but there is a massive, fundamental difference between an economy built solely on selling raw materials and fuel, and one built on processing those materials using energy.
I shouldn't even have to point out that the latter always walks away with the lion's share of the profit, while the former remains perpetually dependent.
Ebiga, it comes down to simple math: higher margins and much greater value creation.
Russian gas or oil will never be worth nearly as much as a precision machine built in Germany.
Best regards.

Bryan Booth82 said:The issue here is that you either refuse to understand, or you simply aren't capable of grasping how much easier and cheaper it is to get your hands on raw materials than it is to buy a finished product. Someone driving a 500-horsepower beast clearly has the cash for fuel; surely it's easier for them than it is for the guy scraping by in an old Chevy Nova.
If I'm pulling in a $3,000 monthly salary, paying $2 per gallon is a breeze compared to someone living on $300, even if gas is only $1 or $1.50.
Even you should be able to follow that basic math, shouldn't you?
Best regards,

urbanotter said:That’s exactly why a pro-Russian outlet like the Kenyan Morning would claim the Chinese model is becoming the global gold standard.

Bad news for the West, as the ‘Chinese model’ becomes the most desirable: ‘Forget democracy, just feed us!‘

urbanotter said:It’s entirely possible if you happen to own colonies.

But look, if the people controlling the raw materials refuse to let go of a barrel for anything less than $200, you’re going to need a significantly higher paycheck just to cover gas priced at $6 or $7 a gallon.
And the catch is, you actually have to earn that kind of money by producing a high-value finished good, because companies like DoorDash aren't out there delivering pizzas and kebabs all across Nigeria, the Middle East, or Russia.

At that point, the guy making $300 a month will find himself earning $3,000, while you'll be stuck scraping by on $300.

You know how Gudulić is...

He's the type who thinks he's climbing up when he's really just digging himself into a deeper hole.

urbanotter said:That’s exactly why a pro-Russian outlet like the Kenyan Morning would claim the Chinese model is becoming the global gold standard.

Bad news for the West, as the ‘Chinese model’ becomes the most desirable: ‘Forget democracy, just feed us!‘

Terry Green3 said:So, what’s the consensus here? Are the Russians just going to slap sanctions on their gas deliveries to Germany?

The real issue isn't even about residential heating or household energy bills. It's about heavy industry—take the chemical sector, for example. They rely on gas as a raw material to produce bases used all over the US and the rest of the world, essentially driving the entire economy.

My take? In a worst-case scenario, Putin cuts the flow by about a third, citing some manufactured "technical glitches." It's just a way to flex his muscles and cause chaos in the supply chain. He gets to decide which industries stay powered up and which ones get left in the dark.

What are your predictions? People in Western Europe are having heated debates over this right now. Here in the States, we aren't sweating it too much since our reserves are currently among the lowest compared to other regions.

Storage is actually filling up right on schedule following the projected pace, meaning by August 1st, 2022, we should hit 63 percent capacity, then 68 percent by September 1st, 74 percent by October 1st, and finally reaching 90 percent capacity by November 1st.

And folks over at PSP are basically insisting that the storage refilling is moving along just like usual, while reminding everyone that "PSP isn't actually in charge of the purchasing side, they're just handling the technical logistics for storing the gas."

If you look at the public data regarding the gas storage status that PSP regularly posts on their site, it’s pretty obvious that after sitting dormant for several months since June 15th, the filling speed has really picked up the pace and is now running close to the maximum daily technical injection limits.

Terry Green3 said:So, what’s the consensus here? Are the Russians just going to slap sanctions on their gas deliveries to Germany?

The real issue isn't even about residential heating or household energy bills. It's about heavy industry—take the chemical sector, for example. They rely on gas as a raw material to produce bases used all over the US and the rest of the world, essentially driving the entire economy.

My take? In a worst-case scenario, Putin cuts the flow by about a third, citing some manufactured "technical glitches." It's just a way to flex his muscles and cause chaos in the supply chain. He gets to decide which industries stay powered up and which ones get left in the dark.

What are your predictions? People in Western Europe are having heated debates over this right now. Here in the States, we aren't sweating it too much since our reserves are currently among the lowest compared to other regions.

Lithuania expanded trade restrictions on Monday regarding the Russian Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad via its territory, following EU sanctions against Moscow.
Trade limits have tightened because governments, markets, and corporations are worried Russia might extend the shutdown of the main pipeline carrying Russian gas to Germany far beyond the ten days originally scheduled for maintenance.

Brenda Murphy3 said:Oh, sure... obviously...

Let's just get lost in some pipe dream here... we can totally just pay $6 a gallon for gas in the middle of a sanctions war... and even then, the Russian standard of living will still be lower than anyone in the EU, and way, way lower than the Western countries. And that's assuming the Russian economy won't buckle, which is a total joke... plus, it assumes the EU won't find an alternative energy source in a reasonable amount of time—which they absolutely will.

The way you're writing this puts you right in line with those people claiming the West is collapsing... that China and Russia are taking over everything... that BRICS is going to become the main player... and all that other nonsense.

mellowsurfer14 said:

urbanotter said:That’s exactly why a pro-Russian outlet like the Kenyan Morning would claim the Chinese model is becoming the global gold standard.

Bad news for the West, as the ‘Chinese model’ becomes the most desirable: ‘Forget democracy, just feed us!‘

gentlestag15 said:Funny enough, there are massive protests breaking out in China today because some bank collapsed.
Naturally, you’ve got hundreds of undercover cops swarming the area and things getting physical with the protesters.
Turns out even "paradise" has its issues. Who would've thought? 😁
View on twitter

urbanotter said:Well, I am indeed one of those people who believes that China and other emerging economies are growing faster than the stagnant ones.
So, it isn't just a hunch; I am convinced of it, much like many others who have a decent grasp of where the world is heading.

I don't want to sound too argumentative, but I can see the Western standard of living plummeting, and how that hits everyone, we'll see pretty soon.
I just know that while you can manage without potatoes, it's a lot harder to survive without wheat, natural gas, and fertilizer.

And when it comes to fuel and driving around in big SUVs, you might find yourself needing to save money and ride a bicycle instead.
If someone in Denmark can bike their kids to school, you can certainly do the same.

We're all going to have to tighten our belts, but some people have already learned how to live simply, so it won't be as hard for them as it will be for others.

So, once fuel becomes prohibitically expensive, just grab the family and start pedaling.

https://www.facebook.com/reel/735445...?s=single_unit

Maybe I'll give you a thumbs up and join you.

Terry Green3 said:So, what’s the consensus here? Are the Russians just going to slap sanctions on their gas deliveries to Germany?

The real issue isn't even about residential heating or household energy bills. It's about heavy industry—take the chemical sector, for example. They rely on gas as a raw material to produce bases used all over the US and the rest of the world, essentially driving the entire economy.

My take? In a worst-case scenario, Putin cuts the flow by about a third, citing some manufactured "technical glitches." It's just a way to flex his muscles and cause chaos in the supply chain. He gets to decide which industries stay powered up and which ones get left in the dark.

What are your predictions? People in Western Europe are having heated debates over this right now. Here in the States, we aren't sweating it too much since our reserves are currently among the lowest compared to other regions.

Terry Green3 said:So, what’s the consensus here? Are the Russians just going to slap sanctions on their gas deliveries to Germany?

The real issue isn't even about residential heating or household energy bills. It's about heavy industry—take the chemical sector, for example. They rely on gas as a raw material to produce bases used all over the US and the rest of the world, essentially driving the entire economy.

My take? In a worst-case scenario, Putin cuts the flow by about a third, citing some manufactured "technical glitches." It's just a way to flex his muscles and cause chaos in the supply chain. He gets to decide which industries stay powered up and which ones get left in the dark.

What are your predictions? People in Western Europe are having heated debates over this right now. Here in the States, we aren't sweating it too much since our reserves are currently among the lowest compared to other regions.

Terry Green3 said:You all seem pretty jumpy. Personally, I’ve already called for a one-third reduction.

Give me some forecasts. Are we looking at capacity expansions, staying the course, shutdowns, or specific percentage cuts?