Sanctions on Russia

gentlestag15 said:Funny enough, there are massive protests breaking out in China today because some bank collapsed.
Naturally, you’ve got hundreds of undercover cops swarming the area and things getting physical with the protesters.
Turns out even "paradise" has its issues. Who would've thought? 😁
View on twitter

Protests happen all over the world quite frequently, but I don't want to get sidetracked by that; my focus is really on the sanctions being imposed on Russia.

https://www.nytimes.com/news/world/china/protests-bank-collapse/

Brenda Murphy3 said:Oh, please...😁

Where exactly is the Western standard plummeting? Because I’m really not seeing it... people are traveling more than ever and spending more than ever. All I see is the Russian standard in a freefall (and let's be honest, it was pathetic to begin with), and the same goes somewhat for the Chinese, whose growth depends entirely on Western consumption.

Don't worry about the West—you can bet your life that your kids will head toward the West if it means a better life, and they certainly aren't running to Russia or China...

(And this idea that China and others are growing faster than the West—where are you even getting that from? Can you put that in any kind of rational context? It’s like when some politician claims wages rose by 10% in Mexico while only rising by 5% in America, forgetting to mention that 10% of a $300 paycheck is $330, whereas 5% of a $2,000 paycheck is $2,100... the gap is actually widening, not closing. For the Chinese standard to actually approach the Western one, their growth rates would need to be significantly, massively higher than they are today... just do the math and tell me how realistic that actually is).

Autocratic societies and joke regimes like Russia will never, ever reach the standard of Western democracies. That's just how it works—the system itself hits a ceiling it can't break through. So, feel free to keep talking nonsense about us riding bicycles while being overtaken by regimes that have been decades behind us in quality of life—and in the case of Russia, mentally too.

That’s just your opinion, and it speaks volumes about your crystal ball.
You're entitled to it, even if it's wrong, and the future will soon prove that point.

As for us here in America, Russia has already overtaken us, and I am certain they will pull even further ahead.
Looking at GDP per capita, we find ourselves right alongside them on the charts,
with the reality that the purchasing power of an average Russian citizen is actually higher than that of an American citizen due to lower costs of living.
The sanctions, which have caused massive spikes in food and energy prices, will only serve to widen that gap.

China is currently the world's second-largest economy and is growing at a faster rate than any Western nation, so all serious analysts and economists expect them to overtake the US within two or three years.

Terry Green3 said:So, what’s the consensus here? Are the Russians just going to slap sanctions on their gas deliveries to Germany?

The real issue isn't even about residential heating or household energy bills. It's about heavy industry—take the chemical sector, for example. They rely on gas as a raw material to produce bases used all over the US and the rest of the world, essentially driving the entire economy.

My take? In a worst-case scenario, Putin cuts the flow by about a third, citing some manufactured "technical glitches." It's just a way to flex his muscles and cause chaos in the supply chain. He gets to decide which industries stay powered up and which ones get left in the dark.

What are your predictions? People in Western Europe are having heated debates over this right now. Here in the States, we aren't sweating it too much since our reserves are currently among the lowest compared to other regions.

If Putin refuses to release the gas after this supposed "maintenance" period, it’s highly unlikely that gas will ever flow toward Germany again. That would hit Germany hard, sure, but it would also drastically accelerate the push to finally break free from gas dependency. Long-term, though, it would be catastrophic for Russia; they'd be throwing away billions in guaranteed revenue.

If Putin just reduces the flow, it would be a relatively milder blow to Germany and might actually make it easier for them to pivot away from gas reliance. Russia might see a short-term profit spike from higher prices, but in the long run, they'll lose a massive, wealthy market.

If Putin actually used his head, he’d realize that using gas as blackmail gives him very little leverage. The West is going to keep supporting Ukraine regardless of whether there is gas or not.
Actually, the smartest move for Putin would be to maximize gas and oil exports at half the current price. That would yield enormous profits and effectively stall Germany's decision to ditch Russian gas altogether. Cheap gas would completely undermine the momentum to move away from it.
The problem is that Putin's ego won't allow it. Instead, he's stuck fighting windmills.

Best regards,

urbanotter said:That’s just your opinion, and it speaks volumes about your crystal ball.
You're entitled to it, even if it's wrong, and the future will soon prove that point.

As for us here in America, Russia has already overtaken us, and I am certain they will pull even further ahead.
Looking at GDP per capita, we find ourselves right alongside them on the charts,
with the reality that the purchasing power of an average Russian citizen is actually higher than that of an American citizen due to lower costs of living.
The sanctions, which have caused massive spikes in food and energy prices, will only serve to widen that gap.

China is currently the world's second-largest economy and is growing at a faster rate than any Western nation, so all serious analysts and economists expect them to overtake the US within two or three years.

According to World Bank data from 2021,
American GDP per capita was $17,300 while Russia's was $12,100.
So, we aren't exactly "neck and neck," and they haven't passed us yet either—there's still a massive third here.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator...D?locations=HR

Terry Green3 said:So, what’s the consensus here? Are the Russians just going to slap sanctions on their gas deliveries to Germany?

The real issue isn't even about residential heating or household energy bills. It's about heavy industry—take the chemical sector, for example. They rely on gas as a raw material to produce bases used all over the US and the rest of the world, essentially driving the entire economy.

My take? In a worst-case scenario, Putin cuts the flow by about a third, citing some manufactured "technical glitches." It's just a way to flex his muscles and cause chaos in the supply chain. He gets to decide which industries stay powered up and which ones get left in the dark.

What are your predictions? People in Western Europe are having heated debates over this right now. Here in the States, we aren't sweating it too much since our reserves are currently among the lowest compared to other regions.

What happens when you let a chimpanzee loose in the White House?

Maybe it rips up some books, maybe it trashes the place, or maybe it does absolutely nothing at all.

Same deal with Russia. Whatever they pull next is driven purely by their own domestic politics—which makes it impossible to call.

urbanotter said:Well, I am indeed one of those people who believes that China and other emerging economies are growing faster than the stagnant ones.
So, it isn't just a hunch; I am convinced of it, much like many others who have a decent grasp of where the world is heading.

I don't want to sound too argumentative, but I can see the Western standard of living plummeting, and how that hits everyone, we'll see pretty soon.
I just know that while you can manage without potatoes, it's a lot harder to survive without wheat, natural gas, and fertilizer.

And when it comes to fuel and driving around in big SUVs, you might find yourself needing to save money and ride a bicycle instead.
If someone in Denmark can bike their kids to school, you can certainly do the same.

We're all going to have to tighten our belts, but some people have already learned how to live simply, so it won't be as hard for them as it will be for others.

So, once fuel becomes prohibitically expensive, just grab the family and start pedaling.

https://www.facebook.com/reel/735445...?s=single_unit

Maybe I'll give you a thumbs up and join you.

The Chinese economy only grows because of its trade with the West. At least on this specific thread, that fact has been backed up by hard numbers more times than I can count.
When the standard of living in the West drops, China's growth inevitably slows down right along with it, since these two economies are essentially two sides of the same coin.

urbanotter said:Well, I am indeed one of those people who believes that China and other emerging economies are growing faster than the stagnant ones.
So, it isn't just a hunch; I am convinced of it, much like many others who have a decent grasp of where the world is heading.

I don't want to sound too argumentative, but I can see the Western standard of living plummeting, and how that hits everyone, we'll see pretty soon.
I just know that while you can manage without potatoes, it's a lot harder to survive without wheat, natural gas, and fertilizer.

And when it comes to fuel and driving around in big SUVs, you might find yourself needing to save money and ride a bicycle instead.
If someone in Denmark can bike their kids to school, you can certainly do the same.

We're all going to have to tighten our belts, but some people have already learned how to live simply, so it won't be as hard for them as it will be for others.

So, once fuel becomes prohibitically expensive, just grab the family and start pedaling.

https://www.facebook.com/reel/735445...?s=single_unit

Maybe I'll give you a thumbs up and join you.

If you consider projected growth rates of 2.7% for 2022 and 2.3% for 2023 (at the European Union level) to be a "cratering" of standards, then fine, sure, everything is falling apart.

urbanotter said:Well, I am indeed one of those people who believes that China and other emerging economies are growing faster than the stagnant ones.
So, it isn't just a hunch; I am convinced of it, much like many others who have a decent grasp of where the world is heading.

I don't want to sound too argumentative, but I can see the Western standard of living plummeting, and how that hits everyone, we'll see pretty soon.
I just know that while you can manage without potatoes, it's a lot harder to survive without wheat, natural gas, and fertilizer.

And when it comes to fuel and driving around in big SUVs, you might find yourself needing to save money and ride a bicycle instead.
If someone in Denmark can bike their kids to school, you can certainly do the same.

We're all going to have to tighten our belts, but some people have already learned how to live simply, so it won't be as hard for them as it will be for others.

So, once fuel becomes prohibitically expensive, just grab the family and start pedaling.

https://www.facebook.com/reel/735445...?s=single_unit

Maybe I'll give you a thumbs up and join you.

That has everything to do with the cultural achievements of a society and nothing to do with whether or not people can afford gas.

When you sit back and read the comments from Putin's fan club—those people who desperately try to brand themselves as "realists"—you start to get the distinct impression that every single Russian individual holds at least a ten percent stake in ExxonMobil or Gazprom, making them completely immune to any sanctions whatsoever. Apparently, they are all becoming obscenely wealthy while the rest of us are left scavenging for scraps.

I’m a big believer in inverse proportionality here. If they decide to throttle our gas supply, we respond by ramping up our shipments of HIMARS missiles to them. 👍

Anthony Hill5 said:When you sit back and read the comments from Putin's fan club—those people who desperately try to brand themselves as "realists"—you start to get the distinct impression that every single Russian individual holds at least a ten percent stake in ExxonMobil or Gazprom, making them completely immune to any sanctions whatsoever. Apparently, they are all becoming obscenely wealthy while the rest of us are left scavenging for scraps.

Oh, please... they just informed us over in struggling Germany that gas prices could spike by 70% in the worst-case scenario. Now, I’m no math genius, but if I’ve been paying 100 dollars up until now...
And if a pack of cigarettes is, what, seven bucks? It basically boils down to a choice: do you want to heat your home, or do you want to be able to smoke?
Best regards,

Anthony Hill5 said:When you sit back and read the comments from Putin's fan club—those people who desperately try to brand themselves as "realists"—you start to get the distinct impression that every single Russian individual holds at least a ten percent stake in ExxonMobil or Gazprom, making them completely immune to any sanctions whatsoever. Apparently, they are all becoming obscenely wealthy while the rest of us are left scavenging for scraps.

Since this whole war kicked off, over 300,000 Russians have bailed, mostly the highly educated types—basically huge waves of software engineers and tech pros
A ton of them ended up in Mexico, just people fleeing nowhere towns
And now, for them, Western Mexico is basically home😁

Around 20 to 30 thousand “economic refugees” from Russia have found sanctuary in Mexico, and you've probably noticed the Russian language popping up more often on the streets of the capital.

You can even hear "Spasibo" being tossed around at the Secretary of State offices or local Department of Justice branches, considering over 800 new legal entities founded by Russian citizens have popped up since April.

urbanotter said:That’s just your opinion, and it speaks volumes about your crystal ball.
You're entitled to it, even if it's wrong, and the future will soon prove that point.

As for us here in America, Russia has already overtaken us, and I am certain they will pull even further ahead.
Looking at GDP per capita, we find ourselves right alongside them on the charts,
with the reality that the purchasing power of an average Russian citizen is actually higher than that of an American citizen due to lower costs of living.
The sanctions, which have caused massive spikes in food and energy prices, will only serve to widen that gap.

China is currently the world's second-largest economy and is growing at a faster rate than any Western nation, so all serious analysts and economists expect them to overtake the US within two or three years.

Here is the projected 2022 GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...PP)_per_capita

52. America $36,201
58. Russia $30,013

That is the direct impact of sanctions on the self-sufficiency of the Russian economy. Back when the US population was calculated differently, there was a decline, and this year the drop is even more significant. It keeps getting worse.
I am convinced that even a state as deeply corrupt and dysfunctional as America would possess double the GDP per capita of Russia if it held a comparable amount of natural resources for export; this simply highlights how profoundly corrupt and incompetent the Russian state truly is.
It is a nation that is literally incapable of producing ten products relevant to the global consumer market. Zero. Nothing. Their only outlet for subpar goods is Russia, Belarus, the Caucasus, and the Turkic states in Central Asia, plus a few tech items sold to the developing world.

China is to Russia what the James Webb telescope is to Sputnik; we are talking about a country where, once you strip away the flashy facade, all you see is filth, decay, and a medieval mindset.

gentlestag15 As stated by:
From the moment this conflict kicked off, people have been fleeing Russia in droves! It’s staggering to think that there are more than 300,000 Russians involved! It’s mostly a crowd of highly educated folks—essentially a massive collection of computer scientists!
A significant number of people have migrated to the States; folks are fleeing from the middle of nowhere!
To them, the West is now essentially Mexico. 😁

I believe you might need to add another zero to that figure!

JesterRace said:Exactly.

This is going to be the single biggest headache for the Russians—if it isn't already.

Their most educated professionals are fleeing to the West in droves! What’s left behind? Just a bunch of dull-witted, primitive old-timers who exist solely to spout propaganda—people like urbanotter.

Honestly, I don't think the current regime in Russia even *needs* highly educated people. In fact, they're more of a liability than an asset—so the fewer of them there are left in Russia, the easier things stay for the current administration.

JesterRace said:Exactly my point.

This is going to be the single biggest headache for the Russians, and it’s already starting to show.

Their brightest minds are fleeing to the West in droves, leaving behind nothing but a bunch of dull, primitive old-timers who do nothing but spout propaganda—people just like urbanotter.

There are 145,000 children from Ukraine who will be attending school in Germany starting next year. 👍If even 50% of them decide to stay and work in Germany after they graduate, imagine the windfall for their aging population and the massive relief for the local labor shortage.
Best regards,

Jesse Hughes6 said:The Chinese economy only grows because of its trade with the West. At least on this specific thread, that fact has been backed up by hard numbers more times than I can count.
When the standard of living in the West drops, China's growth inevitably slows down right along with it, since these two economies are essentially two sides of the same coin.

If you consider projected growth rates of 2.7% for 2022 and 2.3% for 2023 (at the European Union level) to be a "cratering" of standards, then fine, sure, everything is falling apart.

That has everything to do with the cultural achievements of a society and nothing to do with whether or not people can afford gas.

The topic isn't just about China and its economy, but rather how interconnected the world is—how the growth of individual economies is tied directly to sanctions against Russia.
The European Union is China's largest trading partner, yet the EU is also feeling the sting from a lack of various essential products coming out of China.
Furthermore, China has a massive reserve of growth potential within its huge population; if you raise wages by even a small percentage, that growth keeps moving forward.

If a projected growth rate of 2.7% for 2022 and 2.3% for 2023 (on an EU level) constitutes a "precipitous drop in standards" to you, then fine, I guess things are crashing.

That’s true nominally, but when you subtract inflation—which is rising faster because of the shortage of Russian oil and other raw materials, hitting double digits—the picture changes.
Some people just don't seem to grasp that a modern economy is fundamentally built on energy usage, and sanctions have significantly hampered availability while driving energy costs through the roof.
You can't avoid incorporating those costs into the price of goods and eventually passing them onto the consumer.
I don't want to turn this into an economics lecture, but if Western nations end up paying much more for energy than Eastern nations do,
there's simply no way they can maintain their current level of competitiveness. Meanwhile, the easy access to cheaper Russian energy and resources will only serve to boost the competitive edge of Eastern economies.

That has more to do with the overall cultural achievements of a society rather than just not having enough money for gas.

I can agree with that.
The Danes use bicycles quite a bit, yet they certainly have the money to buy fuel.
Unfortunately, we aren't Danes, and what might be a choice there could easily become the daily reality for many of our citizens—a sight we'll likely see on our own streets soon enough.
But anyway, moving on...
let's go watch Milić; he's old school, but always interesting, even his reruns.

urbanotter said:That’s just your opinion, and it speaks volumes about your crystal ball.
You're entitled to it, even if it's wrong, and the future will soon prove that point.

As for us here in America, Russia has already overtaken us, and I am certain they will pull even further ahead.
Looking at GDP per capita, we find ourselves right alongside them on the charts,
with the reality that the purchasing power of an average Russian citizen is actually higher than that of an American citizen due to lower costs of living.
The sanctions, which have caused massive spikes in food and energy prices, will only serve to widen that gap.

China is currently the world's second-largest economy and is growing at a faster rate than any Western nation, so all serious analysts and economists expect them to overtake the US within two or three years.

Since when did 12,500 equal 17,300? Oh right, because Russian currency is always "more valuable"...
Serious economists don't seem to have a clue. Twenty years ago, when the BRIC acronym first popped up, the forecast was that those economies would represent over 50% of the global economy by 2023, and that China would surpass the USA to become the largest economy in the world by 2017. Instead, Brazil is struggling with drug cartels and slums that require military intervention to keep under control, while Russia is in a steady decline—both in population and economic standing—dropping to a mere one percent of the global economy. In India, they'd need to build decent wcje before worrying about growth, since people are still using the streets instead of proper facilities, let alone worrying about Chinese corporations flourishing...

gentlestag15 said:Since this whole war kicked off, over 300,000 Russians have bailed, mostly the highly educated types—basically huge waves of software engineers and tech pros
A ton of them ended up in Mexico, just people fleeing nowhere towns
And now, for them, Western Mexico is basically home😁

Around 20 to 30 thousand “economic refugees” from Russia have found sanctuary in Mexico, and you've probably noticed the Russian language popping up more often on the streets of the capital.

You can even hear "Spasibo" being tossed around at the Secretary of State offices or local Department of Justice branches, considering over 800 new legal entities founded by Russian citizens have popped up since April.

So if we're looking at the map and seeing how many of them actually moved toward the West😬

But man, when someone starts calling Mexico the "promised land," you know exactly what kind of nonsense you're dealing with🙂

urbanotter said:The topic isn't just about China and its economy, but rather how interconnected the world is—how the growth of individual economies is tied directly to sanctions against Russia.
The European Union is China's largest trading partner, yet the EU is also feeling the sting from a lack of various essential products coming out of China.
Furthermore, China has a massive reserve of growth potential within its huge population; if you raise wages by even a small percentage, that growth keeps moving forward.

If a projected growth rate of 2.7% for 2022 and 2.3% for 2023 (on an EU level) constitutes a "precipitous drop in standards" to you, then fine, I guess things are crashing.

That’s true nominally, but when you subtract inflation—which is rising faster because of the shortage of Russian oil and other raw materials, hitting double digits—the picture changes.
Some people just don't seem to grasp that a modern economy is fundamentally built on energy usage, and sanctions have significantly hampered availability while driving energy costs through the roof.
You can't avoid incorporating those costs into the price of goods and eventually passing them onto the consumer.
I don't want to turn this into an economics lecture, but if Western nations end up paying much more for energy than Eastern nations do,
there's simply no way they can maintain their current level of competitiveness. Meanwhile, the easy access to cheaper Russian energy and resources will only serve to boost the competitive edge of Eastern economies.

That has more to do with the overall cultural achievements of a society rather than just not having enough money for gas.

I can agree with that.
The Danes use bicycles quite a bit, yet they certainly have the money to buy fuel.
Unfortunately, we aren't Danes, and what might be a choice there could easily become the daily reality for many of our citizens—a sight we'll likely see on our own streets soon enough.
But anyway, moving on...
let's go watch Milić; he's old school, but always interesting, even his reruns.

Look, even before the sanctions and the war kicked off, energy prices were jumping all over the place, and supply was already shaky because Russia kept trying to bully everyone into these long-term contracts.
Russia actually started messing with energy prices and supply chains last winter, way before all those famous Western sanctions even hit the scene.
Did we all just collectively forget that part?

Joshua Wilson17 said:Since when did 12,500 equal 17,300? Oh right, because Russian currency is always "more valuable"...
Serious economists don't seem to have a clue. Twenty years ago, when the BRIC acronym first popped up, the forecast was that those economies would represent over 50% of the global economy by 2023, and that China would surpass the USA to become the largest economy in the world by 2017. Instead, Brazil is struggling with drug cartels and slums that require military intervention to keep under control, while Russia is in a steady decline—both in population and economic standing—dropping to a mere one percent of the global economy. In India, they'd need to build decent wcje before worrying about growth, since people are still using the streets instead of proper facilities, let alone worrying about Chinese corporations flourishing...

I honestly have no idea what you mean by those numbers, 12,500 and 17,300.

When you take a look at the list of countries ranked by GDP per capita—which is widely considered one of the primary indicators of a nation's standard of living—an objective observer would notice that Russia and the United States are actually quite close in terms of GDP per capita.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_per_capita

Furthermore, one must also account for purchasing power parity and the actual amount of disposable income an average citizen retains after covering their essential cost of living.

I won't bother commenting on your crystal ball predictions, but I will reiterate my own point: the availability of cheaper emerging markets provides a massive advantage to countries that didn't join the sanctions against Russia. Those who did implement sanctions are forced to buy energy on the open stock exchange, often paying up to 40% more.

And as for those fears regarding the exodus of roughly 300,000 Russian citizens moving abroad—when you consider they have a population of 140 million, that migration is statistically insignificant. It would be like if ten thousand people left a mid-sized American city; it doesn't change the fundamental scale of the nation.

gentlestag15 said:Look, even before the sanctions and the war kicked off, energy prices were jumping all over the place, and supply was already shaky because Russia kept trying to bully everyone into these long-term contracts.
Russia actually started messing with energy prices and supply chains last winter, way before all those famous Western sanctions even hit the scene.
Did we all just collectively forget that part?

Stock Exchange prices are largely shaped by speculators who set the terminal rates; they move based on the political climate and whatever shifts occur regarding the availability of specific commodities
In most cases, these oil traders and middlemen have already locked down their supply volumes right at the source or within the reservoirs themselves

And then there’s the "I forgot" part—forgetting that Russia itself "disrupted energy prices and supply." I honestly don't see why they wouldn't influence the selling price or the availability of their own resources.
It’s a bit like saying I can’t set the price for my own catch of fish, as if there were some rule or law preventing me from determining the value of my goods in a free market where everyone has the right to price what they sell.

Furthermore, I’m not aware of any instances where Russia was blackmailing anyone regarding prices that were already established in contracts, and from what I understand, they are still supplying gas to Europe at the agreed-upon rates.
If you happen to have some different information or evidence to the contrary, please send me a link so I can get up to speed on what's actually happening.

I get the impression that the basic rules and standard behaviors of the marketplace aren't exactly your specialty.