Sanctions on Russia

rowdyraven112 said:Just for the record, in case we all slept through the last eight years. Russia has been under sanctions since 2014. That means they've had an eight-year head start in building an economy that doesn't rely on Western resources. I'm not convinced they haven't already done that. A 4% drop actually proves my point. We'll see. One thing I am sure of: they won't go bankrupt before negotiations start, and that depends on whether they hit their occupation goals—goals even I can't define. Bakhmut is about to fall, which puts the defense of Siversk - Bakhmut at risk. I don't even want to think about what happens if Cleveland and Slavic fall.

Should I scour this forum and news sites to pull quotes about how they'll run out of war supplies and food within six months? Artillery is still flying. Russians have plenty of food on store shelves. It's pure underestimation. And that’s the worst part. It reminds me of Louisa May Alcott's Kosjenka and Regoč. In the end, one village decides to break a dam just to flood another. Both disappear, cheered on by their own people. A cautionary tale. ☕

We should, because this is the first time I've heard anyone claim that Russia will exhaust its food and war reserves in six months.

In reality, people are much more likely to argue that Europe will face massive problems or even total collapse within six months without Russian gas.🍿

Joshua Myers432 said:It’s easy to just cherry-pick whatever window on a chart makes your point look good. Why don't you look at Russia's GDP from the moment Putin took power until now? Go ahead, tell me exactly how much they've dropped in that timeframe. ☕

None of that actually matters, though. What I really want to know is when we'll see that steep decline in Russian GDP—when that disorganized mess of a country finally collapses under the weight of these massive sanctions we slapped on them. Right now, all I see is a tidal wave hitting our own side.

That’s because you guys are only reading one headline and calling it a day...

Joshua Myers432 said:It’s easy to just cherry-pick whatever window on a chart makes your point look good. Why don't you look at Russia's GDP from the moment Putin took power until now? Go ahead, tell me exactly how much they've dropped in that timeframe. ☕

None of that actually matters, though. What I really want to know is when we'll see that steep decline in Russian GDP—when that disorganized mess of a country finally collapses under the weight of these massive sanctions we slapped on them. Right now, all I see is a tidal wave hitting our own side.

And how big is that drop, genius?

Honestly, if you put a monkey from the local zoo in charge, you’d probably see similar numbers to Putin and his crew. For God's sake, this is a country sitting on the most massive resources on the entire planet, yet if you look at their average or median standard of living—Rhode Island would be like Las Vegas or New York City to them... literally. And that’s if we totally ignore the fact that a handful of people close to the leadership basically run the whole show while 62 miles everything from Moscow down to the rural villages feels like the Middle Ages... not to mention the Far East.

If we put someone as "brilliant" as you in charge of Russia, you wouldn't have any worse results than a capable guy like Vladek.

Joshua Myers432 said:It’s easy to just cherry-pick whatever window on a chart makes your point look good. Why don't you look at Russia's GDP from the moment Putin took power until now? Go ahead, tell me exactly how much they've dropped in that timeframe. ☕

None of that actually matters, though. What I really want to know is when we'll see that steep decline in Russian GDP—when that disorganized mess of a country finally collapses under the weight of these massive sanctions we slapped on them. Right now, all I see is a tidal wave hitting our own side.

And just how deep does this drop have to be for you to call it "steep"?

You're talking about a "tsunami" on our side (even though that clearly isn't even your side 😁), yet there isn't a single country in the EU that has fallen into a recession, while Russian GDP (according to those conservative, lying Russian sources) is supposedly dropping by 8%... but somehow, you only see the "tsunami" here? Seriously? 🤣😵

I honestly don't get why this kind of trolling is even allowed... because to claim what you're claiming, you either have to be trolling, be as dumb as a rock, or be a straight-up pro-Putin fascist.

No matter how you spin it, you're lying... but hey, what's new, right? 😵

Nathan Evans78 As specified by George Robinson43:
Page 2/3 of this thread...

Well, here we are... after six long months of grinding it out over in Ukraine... It seems people really do find a way to make a living after all...Well, you know... they're really just barely hanging on by a thread, mostly because they're relying so heavily on those exports to stay afloat... Part... Energy levels... honestly, I think anyone interested really just needs to scroll back through this entire thread from the very beginning. You’d be shocked at some of the absolute amateurs hanging around here, it’s truly something else... 🤣

That’s coming from the guy who heads over to Canada just to chase a bigger paycheck...

You know, you could easily make enough money back home in the States just to put food on the table and get by... but instead, you made the call to move somewhere where the paycheck actually means something!

It seems like just making a living isn't enough for you, is it? But apparently, the average person living in Russia is perfectly fine with that status quo... and will be for the next several decades while they sit under those sanctions...

Hopefully, the EU will step up and issue a visa ban...

silentnomad7 said:

Nathan Evans78 As specified by George Robinson43:
Page 2/3 of this thread...

Well, here we are... after six long months of grinding it out over in Ukraine... It seems people really do find a way to make a living after all...Well, you know... they're really just barely hanging on by a thread, mostly because they're relying so heavily on those exports to stay afloat... Part... Energy levels... honestly, I think anyone interested really just needs to scroll back through this entire thread from the very beginning. You’d be shocked at some of the absolute amateurs hanging around here, it’s truly something else... 🤣

That’s coming from the guy who heads over to Canada just to chase a bigger paycheck...

You know, you could easily make enough money back home in the States just to put food on the table and get by... but instead, you made the call to move somewhere where the paycheck actually means something!

It seems like just making a living isn't enough for you, is it? But apparently, the average person living in Russia is perfectly fine with that status quo... and will be for the next several decades while they sit under those sanctions...

My friend, let me tell you, Russia and those parts of the world have been economically lagging behind for centuries. It’s like when a waiter tries to charge you five times the price of a meal; it’s just a certain mindset. Honestly, it feels almost epigenetic—it might take dozens of generations of re-education before they align with what we consider "Western" moral principles.

To be honest, Ukrainian partisans and special forces have done more damage to Russia in a few months than those silly sanctions have managed in half a year.

Seriously, a Putin supporter praising Ukrainian partisans? I don't know what kind of delusions you guys are living in...

Meanwhile, the European trade deficit shrank a bit this month, sitting at a deficit of 24.6 billion. Let’s just assume where all that cash is actually flowing—straight into the pockets of democratic regimes. ☕

Nathan Evans78 said:My friend, let me tell you, Russia and those parts of the world have been economically lagging behind for centuries. It’s like when a waiter tries to charge you five times the price of a meal; it’s just a certain mindset. Honestly, it feels almost epigenetic—it might take dozens of generations of re-education before they align with what we consider "Western" moral principles.

To be honest, Ukrainian partisans and special forces have done more damage to Russia in a few months than those silly sanctions have managed in half a year.

At the end of the day, people are the most precious resource any nation has. If ninety percent of your population is essentially living in a state of poverty, feeling like they're stuck in the Middle Ages, you simply can't expect to progress at the same breakneck speed as the rest of the modern world. Sure, you might move forward eventually, but you'll be left in the dust by the global leaders, and that technological gap just keeps widening...

A nation simply cannot move forward without a solid middle class that actually has an education.

Just look at Japan, for instance. They have almost no natural resources to speak of, yet they became a powerhouse because they poured everything into educating their people...

Or look at the Western nations, which have become incredibly prosperous because they can afford to recruit highly educated professionals who migrate there and contribute to their growth.

On the flip side, just look at those resource-rich countries that somehow still maintain a standard of living more akin to third-world nations.

It seems like Putin has essentially destined Russians to be a largely uneducated population, content with a lifestyle that mirrors developing countries. Of course, plenty of Russians don't agree with that reality, which is why so many are choosing to leave...

George Robinson43 said:I have no idea who started this rumor about Russia going bankrupt.
It simply won't happen. They might see a significant drop in wealth, but there is absolutely nothing wrong with living a modest life.
In my experience, people who embrace simplicity tend to complain much less.
The Germans are always grumbling. Have you ever heard anyone complaining in North Korea? They are perfectly content because they live such frugal lives.

As for underestimating the situation….
Ever since 2014, the mantra has been "seven days to the Atlantic," and then suddenly, six months later, everyone is debating some territory like Bakhmut.

Well, people don't complain in North Korea because they aren't allowed to. The government punishes them brutally just to set an example for everyone else.
It's the same thing if the streets aren't spotless—they'll clean them up through brutal punishment.

And anyone even attempting to escape North Korea is just going to get shot.

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I'm not sure if Russia will reach a point soon where they start building a wall like the one in Berlin, maybe even mining certain areas to make escaping impossible. They might even set up patrols specifically to shoot anyone trying to flee.
It really just depends on how crazy Putin is and where he finally draws the line.

Nathan Evans78 said:Seriously, a Putin supporter praising Ukrainian partisans? I don't know what kind of delusions you guys are living in...

Meanwhile, the European trade deficit shrank a bit this month, sitting at a deficit of 24.6 billion. Let’s just assume where all that cash is actually flowing—straight into the pockets of democratic regimes. ☕

Aha...😒

Honestly, if you actually understood what a trade deficit is, or the sheer dispersion within the European economy, maybe we could actually have a real conversation here...

As for who's getting the money, you don't need to lose too much sleep over it... as long as you're working within the EU, and your kids end up working in the EU, and it's highly likely they'll be heading somewhere even more Western than Canada... or are they aiming for that Russian prosperity instead?🤣

And look, I didn't call *you* a Putin supporter, but you're definitely leaning anti-EU and anti-West... why? Only you know that, but it clearly shapes your views, leading you to post totally unrealistic nonsense...
Otherwise, is there some massive economic collapse happening in the EU? A recession? Some cataclysmic disaster? Or is it actually the case that people are spending more than ever, millions are traveling, and companies can't find enough workers because business is booming? It's a fascinating little world you live in, where everything you say seems to clash with basic facts... (yeah, yeah, I know... winter, hunger, gas shortages, etc...🤣 )

Nathan Evans78 said:My friend, let me tell you, Russia and those parts of the world have been economically lagging behind for centuries. It’s like when a waiter tries to charge you five times the price of a meal; it’s just a certain mindset. Honestly, it feels almost epigenetic—it might take dozens of generations of re-education before they align with what we consider "Western" moral principles.

To be honest, Ukrainian partisans and special forces have done more damage to Russia in a few months than those silly sanctions have managed in half a year.

Haha, back to the old argument that the Russian ubermensch can just survive on moonshine and vodka. 😁 But hey, we're taking it a step further now by calling it "epigenetics."

Believe it or not, Russians are still human beings—once they get a taste of consumerism, they aren't exactly rushing to give it up.

I honestly have no clue what the Russians are playing at, but those September TTF futures over in Rotterdam are looking pretty pricey right now.

ATH hit 220.11 today—at this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if people started offering... let's just say "alternative services"... just to get their hands on an extra drop of LNG.🙏

Oil price charts
OPEC basket - $100.04 (-3.06%)
WTI Crude - $87.21 (-2.46%)

The trend looks good regarding sanctions—definitely a win for Europe and the rest of the world.

EU gas reserves are sitting at 74.74% (as of Feb 14)

Sam Alvarez4 said:Hopefully, the EU will step up and issue a visa ban...

For sure. Only problem is, looking at how things are going, it's a long shot unless the Germans and the French actually grow some backbone.

Eastern Europe will probably just stop footing the bill for them, that much is certain.

rowdyraven112 said:Just for the record, in case we all slept through the last eight years. Russia has been under sanctions since 2014. That means they've had an eight-year head start in building an economy that doesn't rely on Western resources. I'm not convinced they haven't already done that. A 4% drop actually proves my point. We'll see. One thing I am sure of: they won't go bankrupt before negotiations start, and that depends on whether they hit their occupation goals—goals even I can't define. Bakhmut is about to fall, which puts the defense of Siversk - Bakhmut at risk. I don't even want to think about what happens if Cleveland and Slavic fall.

Should I scour this forum and news sites to pull quotes about how they'll run out of war supplies and food within six months? Artillery is still flying. Russians have plenty of food on store shelves. It's pure underestimation. And that’s the worst part. It reminds me of Louisa May Alcott's Kosjenka and Regoč. In the end, one village decides to break a dam just to flood another. Both disappear, cheered on by their own people. A cautionary tale. ☕

Crude oil prices are lower now than when the war started. They dropped 30% in just two months.
How does that work? The Kremlin types were calling for $200 a barrel, but turns out they're just full of it.

It’s just more gas and empty promises once those tanks are filled up...

Nathan Thomas12 said:Crude oil prices are lower now than when the war started. They dropped 30% in just two months.
How does that work? The Kremlin types were calling for $200 a barrel, but turns out they're just full of it.

But wouldn't it make perfect sense for prices to slide back down to pre-war levels, considering Russian production has only dipped by a mere 3%?

Dana Robinson4 said:But wouldn't it make perfect sense for prices to slide back down to pre-war levels, considering Russian production has only dipped by a mere 3%?

Don't tell me you're falling for those "ruble strength" fairy tales too.

A semi-feudal nation stuck in the middle of a war and heavy sanctions isn't doing exactly great, you know?

Richard Wilson4 said:Don't tell me you're falling for those "ruble strength" fairy tales too.

A semi-feudal nation stuck in the middle of a war and heavy sanctions isn't doing exactly great, you know?

It isn't really about the strength of the currency so much as it is the sheer power of the oil industry...

If some people in the Baltics are turning their noses up at Russian oil, don't worry—there are plenty of others who aren't so picky, right?

Dana Robinson4 said:It isn't really about the strength of the currency so much as it is the sheer power of the oil industry...

If some people in the Baltics are turning their noses up at Russian oil, don't worry—there are plenty of others who aren't so picky, right?

Those Kremlin puppets were out here predicting oil would hit $200 a barrel. So, how do you explain the price tanking instead?