Sanctions on Russia

rowdyraven112 said:Standardized? The first thing that made me doubt the bias was the price of salmon... since when is salmon in a "consumer basket"? Then Nutella in a basket... a little reality check wouldn't hurt... beer...

Funny how he took half a liter of Paulaner in a can for Belarus and half a liter in a glass bottle for Poland... as if people in Belarus and Russia don't have their own beer. Not to mention the price difference between a glass bottle and a can.

Anyway, a friend was in the States and told me Budweiser is one of the cheaper ones, while Mexican beers are the most expensive.

The salmon is definitely the most bizarre part, isn't it? One single item accounts for 25% of the total value of this imaginary basket, yet it’s hardly a fundamental necessity for daily life...

But there is more to it than that. During his time in Germany, he mostly stuck to buying Kaufland store brands, for instance...

And the icing on the cake is that he wasn't even physically in Russia; he just clicked through whatever webshop was available at whatever prices were listed. At least, based on what my Slavic ears could make sense of in his story, though if anyone here has a mastery of the Russian language, please feel free to correct me if I've misunderstood his account...

crimsoncyclist71 said:What's interesting here is that I don't see you providing any "actual" data regarding the rise in living standards for Russian citizens following the sanctions. I'm sure such data exists, but I don't see you sharing anything other than spitting on every piece of information that contradicts your personal beliefs.

And the Russian ruble is garbage because it isn't on a free market. You can't freely buy or sell the currency. Its value doesn't mean anything other than being able to say the ruble is "strong."

Sanctions work. If they didn't, we wouldn't need an army of posters trying to convince us everything is fine.

You don't need propaganda, but maybe try reading some independent news outlets instead of those swampy little pamphlets.

Trade between China and Russia surged by more than 12 percent in March, according to data from the Chinese customs administration, which stands in direct opposition to the trade policies implemented by Western nations through strict sanctions against Moscow due to its invasion of Ukraine. The value of China-Russia trade reached $11.67 billion last month, and in the first three months of this year, exchange jumped by 30.45 percent.

So, yeah, sanctions are definitely "working."☕

urbanotter said:Comparisons like this don't even really warrant a response, but some people find them to be a very "appealing" indicator of the supposed decline in Russian standards. In reality, the Ruble has strengthened immensely due to measures taken by the Russian CB, so they are actually working to weaken the currency now because a strong Ruble hurts their exports.
The only fair comparison would be seeing how much one can actually buy with an average salary in the US,
but then the picture wouldn't look quite so "appealing."
When you look at which companies left Russia due to sanctions, the drop in living standards is far less significant than suggested; instead of the expected 10% drop, the economy fell by 5%, which is similar to the contraction seen in the European economy.
But let them keep writing their panegyrics about sanctions so that the local Anglophiles don't get too unsettled or excited. ☕

If the official exchange rate were truly favorable, there would be no reason for a "black market" to exist, especially if you could buy more Euros with your Rubles at a bank than you could on the street.
Russia maintains a surplus in its foreign trade, so there is simply no necessity for black-market currency trading.

Many people who might have been spending Euros on the Atlantic coast this summer were actually spending Rubles at Russian resorts, or using their local currencies in countries that didn't implement any sanctions.

The thing is, you can't actually buy foreign currency with rubles in a Russian bank. That's the whole point. That makes the official exchange rate a total sham. In practice, anyone holding rubles has zero chance of swapping them for hard currency anywhere except on the black market.

You can't even pay for gas with rubles; you pay in Euros and then the Russians just settle the difference in rubles later. It's some kind of Orwellian way of handling payments.

Honestly, none of you guys have ever actually set foot in Russia. Salmon is such a staple over there; I’m talking about how they pull in over 500,000 tons a year just from Pacific waters, and that doesn't even account for all the farming they do on top of that. Your whole argument about their defense strategy is honestly kind of laughable if you're looking at it through a North American lens.

https://salmonbusiness.com/russian-g...on-production/

urbanotter said:You don't need propaganda, but maybe try reading some independent news outlets instead of those swampy little pamphlets.

Trade between China and Russia surged by more than 12 percent in March, according to data from the Chinese customs administration, which stands in direct opposition to the trade policies implemented by Western nations through strict sanctions against Moscow due to its invasion of Ukraine. The value of China-Russia trade reached $11.67 billion last month, and in the first three months of this year, exchange jumped by 30.45 percent.

So, yeah, sanctions are definitely "working."☕

You didn't provide a single coherent answer, though I wasn't expecting much from you anyway.
I'll just drop a coffee emoji and we can see who can spam more smiley faces like children, because I'm still not getting an answer to my question.
All you care about is spitting on any data that doesn't fit your narrative.
☕

quietviper0 said:

I was just sitting here thinking about how much things seem to be shifting lately, and it really does make you wonder where everything is heading... I mean, when you look at the way the economy is moving and how everyone seems to be reacting to the latest news out of Washington, it feels like we're constantly on the edge of something significant, doesn't it? It’s almost like watching a slow-motion movie where you know the climax is coming, but you're just waiting for the director to finally call "cut"... anyway, I suppose I’m getting ahead of myself, but there's just something about this particular moment in history that feels uniquely heavy yet strangely full of potential if we can just navigate it correctly... As if I could just leave that hanging there without adding a bit more context... because you know me, I can't help but wander down a few side streets before I get to the point... so, what was it that was being said...
This is such an incredibly insightful comparison, really, because it lays out exactly how much of an impact those sanctions and the Russian countermeasures actually have on the ground...
I mean, does it even make sense to pack your shopping cart full of things you can’t find anywhere else? If that's the case, how would someone, say, an American living in a different part of the world, even begin to gauge what the local prices are like over there... 🤦

I suppose one should probably start by figuring out exactly what a single household or an individual actually needs just to get by, and then try to weigh those essential living costs against whatever salary they’re actually bringing home... though that might be asking a bit much from the professional Twitter crowd, wouldn't you agree? They seem far more interested in chasing clicks and likes, picking up engagement on anything they post as long as it carries that certain scent of sensationalism and the illusion of being groundbreaking...

Whether we're talking about a bottle of sol de Chile wine, a cold Paulaner beer, a tub of Nutella, or even just grabbing some Barilla pasta, a bag of Lay's chips, or a bar of Milka chocolate... and honestly, even things like high-end salmon or premium laundry detergent like Tide, none of these brands should ever be used as a real yardstick for measuring someone's quality of life or their actual purchasing power... because if these specific items happen to be out of stock or marked up with ridiculous prices in certain areas, they are incredibly easy to swap out for a billion other alternatives without losing an ounce of actual well-being or comfort in your daily routine... it really just comes down to the fact that these luxury labels don't define our standard of living at all...

And there’s another absolutely fascinating layer to this whole "comparison" they're trying to make, which is that he hasn't even actually set foot in Russia, but instead has just been scrolling through various online retailers to gather his data...

Well, you actually pointed out in your previous post that the ruble is absolute garbage, and I certainly wouldn't be dreaming of converting their wages into dollars using some official government exchange rate... so I'm wondering why, in this particular comparison, you're making the price seem relevant by calculating it at 60 rubles to the dollar...

If someone in Russia was buying Nutella for price X before sanctions, and now it sells for X times 2, that is an indicator. I don't see how that isn't perfectly clear. The effect of sanctions is that these specific products have become this much more expensive.

I asked for a breakdown of low retail prices in Russia, but I got no answer because the truth is devastating. Anything currently available will shock anyone who insists that Russia is a self-sufficient country.

Here is a guy directly from Russia:

Check out this clip of someone from St. Petersburg walking through a grocery store. TL;DR: food prices are climbing fast—some stuff is up like 30% compared to back in April, regardless of how "strong" the ruble is supposed to be. The only thing actually getting cheaper right now is fresh produce, just because it's finally in season.

And keep in mind, this is one of the two cities Putin is doing everything he can to shield from the actual impact of the war.

crimsoncyclist71 said:If someone in Russia was buying Nutella for price X before sanctions, and now it sells for X times 2, that is an indicator. I don't see how that isn't perfectly clear. The effect of sanctions is that these specific products have become this much more expensive.

I asked for a breakdown of low retail prices in Russia, but I got no answer because the truth is devastating. Anything currently available will shock anyone who insists that Russia is a self-sufficient country.

Here is a guy directly from Russia:

The price comparisons in this video actually make sense, which is a refreshing change from the ones we've been debating here so far...

But hey, if you really want to obsess over the specific price of Nutella, be my guest...
Just please, try not to let Nutella become your entire personality, otherwise the producers of sol de Chile might take offense and feel a little bit slighted...

quietviper0 said:The price comparisons in this video actually make sense, which is a refreshing change from the ones we've been debating here so far...

But hey, if you really want to obsess over the specific price of Nutella, be my guest...
Just please, try not to let Nutella become your entire personality, otherwise the producers of sol de Chile might take offense and feel a little bit slighted...

My life's purpose is monitoring the cost of Nutella, and I don't see why that bothers you. Are you actually Nutella-phobic?

Is Nutella actually a luxury item? 🤔

hiddeneagle98 said:The thing is, you can't actually buy foreign currency with rubles in a Russian bank. That's the whole point. That makes the official exchange rate a total sham. In practice, anyone holding rubles has zero chance of swapping them for hard currency anywhere except on the black market.

You can't even pay for gas with rubles; you pay in Euros and then the Russians just settle the difference in rubles later. It's some kind of Orwellian way of handling payments.

Come on, let's not get carried away with fairy tales here. The companies importing goods into Russia are buying their foreign currency on the black market. Even someone as inexperienced as little Ivica wouldn't be able to pull that off.

The reality is that you can't settle a bill for gas or oil in euros; you have to go out into the market, buy the necessary rubles, and only then can you actually secure the energy supply.

I think everyone is missing the core mechanism here: Gaspr opened an account where buyers deposit their dollars or euros, and then the company uses those funds to purchase the rubles needed to finalize the sale of the gas or oil.

So, while you can technically buy rubles using any major currency, you can't actually make the payment in anything other than rubles.

It's a bit of a catch-22—you can't pay a specific bank because of sanctions, yet you still need to facilitate the trade.
Essentially, you have to pay first, grab the rubles, and only then do you see the gas arrive.

That is precisely why the ruble has become such a sought-after currency, causing its value to spike even higher than it was before the sanctions were ever implemented.😉😁

urbanotter said:Come on, let's not get carried away with fairy tales here. The companies importing goods into Russia are buying their foreign currency on the black market. Even someone as inexperienced as little Ivica wouldn't be able to pull that off.

The reality is that you can't settle a bill for gas or oil in euros; you have to go out into the market, buy the necessary rubles, and only then can you actually secure the energy supply.

I think everyone is missing the core mechanism here: Gaspr opened an account where buyers deposit their dollars or euros, and then the company uses those funds to purchase the rubles needed to finalize the sale of the gas or oil.

So, while you can technically buy rubles using any major currency, you can't actually make the payment in anything other than rubles.

It's a bit of a catch-22—you can't pay a specific bank because of sanctions, yet you still need to facilitate the trade.
Essentially, you have to pay first, grab the rubles, and only then do you see the gas arrive.

That is precisely why the ruble has become such a sought-after currency, causing its value to spike even higher than it was before the sanctions were ever implemented.😉😁

And this is just a temporary spike—it's a transition phase. By next year, let's see if Russia can even find anyone willing to buy their gas. They can try demanding Rubles then, too.

nimbleviper3 said:Is Nutella actually a luxury item? 🤔

Clearly.
In self-sufficient Russia.

crimsoncyclist71 said:Clearly.
In self-sufficient Russia.

I know high-end chocolate was considered a luxury back in the nineties, which just goes to show they haven't evolved one bit..

urbanotter said:Come on, let's not get carried away with fairy tales here. The companies importing goods into Russia are buying their foreign currency on the black market. Even someone as inexperienced as little Ivica wouldn't be able to pull that off.

The reality is that you can't settle a bill for gas or oil in euros; you have to go out into the market, buy the necessary rubles, and only then can you actually secure the energy supply.

I think everyone is missing the core mechanism here: Gaspr opened an account where buyers deposit their dollars or euros, and then the company uses those funds to purchase the rubles needed to finalize the sale of the gas or oil.

So, while you can technically buy rubles using any major currency, you can't actually make the payment in anything other than rubles.

It's a bit of a catch-22—you can't pay a specific bank because of sanctions, yet you still need to facilitate the trade.
Essentially, you have to pay first, grab the rubles, and only then do you see the gas arrive.

That is precisely why the ruble has become such a sought-after currency, causing its value to spike even higher than it was before the sanctions were ever implemented.😉😁

Wait, so now you're saying they aren't buying on the market, but directly from the Central Bank at their set rate? And it's not even the customers buying, but ExxonMobil itself just pumping up demand... I think you might be accidentally contradicting yourself in a single post there.

hollowdriver13 said:Wait, so now you're saying they aren't buying on the market, but directly from the Central Bank at their set rate? And it's not even the customers buying, but ExxonMobil itself just pumping up demand... I think you might be accidentally contradicting yourself in a single post there.

Think about it—what does a central bank really need in terms of foreign currency when they can just print more of their own? In this case, ExxonMobil is essentially buying from Russian importers who have been paid in foreign currency to cover their import costs; it’s a standard economic cycle seen in almost any nation.
The Federal Reserve doesn't exist just to facilitate currency trades for importers and exporters; it isn't like the old days of the Central Bank of America, where the primary goal was simply maintaining price stability by pegging the kuna to the Euro.
Looking back, we can clearly see how much "stability" that policy actually achieved.

Honestly, it’s ridiculous. Just ten days ago, you could pick up a candy bar for $2.00/, and now you can't find one for less than $9.90. So much for "stable" prices.

The specific account opened by ExxonMobil is designed specifically to bypass the freezes on funds meant for gas payments within Western banks that have slapped sanctions on Russia.

It isn't just a matter of buying and selling currency based on supply and demand; the converted funds actually remain sitting within the Russian banking system.

Because Russia is seeing such a massive trade surplus due to the drop in imports, the ruble has actually strengthened beyond what the government wants.
Now, the Central Bank is stepping in with measures to weaken an overly strong ruble because it’s starting to act as a bottleneck for Russian exports.
And remember, Russia isn't just exporting energy; they export a wide range of goods and raw materials. This is going to create significant issues with grain supplies, too. We're looking at expected yields in Ukraine dropping by as much as 50%, and with droughts ravaging American agriculture right now, yields for soft crops could easily be cut in half as well.
The rain just won't come when it's needed most, and if it finally does arrive, the damage will already be done.
Beyond just market volatility, we should probably prepare for food prices to keep climbing while everyone else tightens their belts; it’s highly unlikely that wages will keep pace with the rising cost of groceries.

urbanotter said:Think about it—what does a central bank really need in terms of foreign currency when they can just print more of their own? In this case, ExxonMobil is essentially buying from Russian importers who have been paid in foreign currency to cover their import costs; it’s a standard economic cycle seen in almost any nation.
The Federal Reserve doesn't exist just to facilitate currency trades for importers and exporters; it isn't like the old days of the Central Bank of America, where the primary goal was simply maintaining price stability by pegging the kuna to the Euro.
Looking back, we can clearly see how much "stability" that policy actually achieved.

Honestly, it’s ridiculous. Just ten days ago, you could pick up a candy bar for $2.00/, and now you can't find one for less than $9.90. So much for "stable" prices.

The specific account opened by ExxonMobil is designed specifically to bypass the freezes on funds meant for gas payments within Western banks that have slapped sanctions on Russia.

It isn't just a matter of buying and selling currency based on supply and demand; the converted funds actually remain sitting within the Russian banking system.

Because Russia is seeing such a massive trade surplus due to the drop in imports, the ruble has actually strengthened beyond what the government wants.
Now, the Central Bank is stepping in with measures to weaken an overly strong ruble because it’s starting to act as a bottleneck for Russian exports.
And remember, Russia isn't just exporting energy; they export a wide range of goods and raw materials. This is going to create significant issues with grain supplies, too. We're looking at expected yields in Ukraine dropping by as much as 50%, and with droughts ravaging American agriculture right now, yields for soft crops could easily be cut in half as well.
The rain just won't come when it's needed most, and if it finally does arrive, the damage will already be done.
Beyond just market volatility, we should probably prepare for food prices to keep climbing while everyone else tightens their belts; it’s highly unlikely that wages will keep pace with the rising cost of groceries.

So you're claiming that forex and rubles are trading freely in Russia?

nimbleviper3 said:Is Nutella actually a luxury item? 🤔

Not at all, it’s just completely useless as an indicator for anything meaningful...

Nathan Thomas12 said:Korac, if a Western buyer has Euros sitting in their account and transfers those Euros directly to Gazprombank, what currency did they actually use for the payment?
Gazprom converts that money into rubles to settle with themselves. Sure, they could convert it into Yuan, but that doesn't change the reality that the Western buyer made the payment using Euros.

Furthermore, you haven't addressed the Russian GDP crash of 40% when measured in rubles!!! So, I take it you agree.

The Western buyer was buying rubles, not paying for gas.

You can only pay for gas in rubles, and you can acquire those rubles using Yuan if that's what you have on hand.

I don't really have anything to add there; the Russian economy dropped by about 4%, which is quite different from the 11.5% or higher many were anticipating.

It seems a few people's crystal balls were a bit off.

That dip wasn't exactly a shocker, considering how many Western companies pulled out of Russia due to the sanctions.
At the end of the day, most of that is just service-sector stuff. A Russian citizen isn't going to starve just because they can't grab a McDonald's burger, but a German might be shivering in 20-degree weather when it hits -20 outside if the gas runs out or becomes prohibitively expensive.
Word is that prices hit $3,000 per 1,000m3, while Russian gas was being sold for under $300.😉

Reuters isn't exactly delivering any sunshine regarding the German economy lately.

https://www.rekreativno.info/2022/08...85C2msIvaXWz20

quietviper0 said:Not at all, it’s just completely useless as an indicator for anything meaningful...

On the contrary. A product's popularity and its price point are definitely indicators of something.
We're talking about a product that's universal across all markets, not some niche local brand.