Sanctions on Russia

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...acing-shutoffs

According to Bloomberg, we’re looking at a massive struggle right now—at least 20 million households, which is roughly one in six American homes, are falling behind on their utility bills. These skyrocketing electricity prices are triggering what's being described as the worst utility payment crisis we've ever seen.

I have to wonder, what on earth is going on over in New York City? I was looking at this chart yesterday, and checking their site again today, it looks like traders are panicking and buying up everything at $300+ per unit. It seems like these buyers haven't really grasped the situation yet; they're missing the fact that Europe has already secured its supplies for the winter, so things should actually be looking fine. 🙏 🙏

https://www.investing.com/commoditie...treaming-chart

But hey, we’re special. We won't make a sound, so there's no point in anyone even trying to warn us.

We’ve never really known what it means to be wealthy, so I suppose we handle the scarcity better.
Drawing some parallels here, I agree with the others: an average Russian—someone who still complains about the World Cup being held in Poland (hyperbole intended)—is going to weather these sanctions much easier than some European.
They have plenty of energy, plenty of food, and honestly, they don't need much else to get by. They don't know any better.

Everyone’s out here freaking out about famine and freezing to death—it’s just not happening. Even with the droughts and all the war stuff going on, grain yields should stay pretty average overall.
And you think the money printer going brrr during COVID has nothing to do with this?! Like, obviously inflation has made everything way more complicated.

Thomas Nelson25 said:Everyone’s out here freaking out about famine and freezing to death—it’s just not happening. Even with the droughts and all the war stuff going on, grain yields should stay pretty average overall.
And you think the money printer going brrr during COVID has nothing to do with this?! Like, obviously inflation has made everything way more complicated.

Man, over the last couple of years, I feel like we've seen endless deep dives, endless essays, and mountains of analysis trying to predict exactly how much the lockdowns and COVID were going to wreck our lives. But now, suddenly, everyone is pointing the finger exclusively at the sanctions against Russia that were slapped on less than six months ago like they're the only thing that matters.

goldenowl73 said:Man, over the last couple of years, I feel like we've seen endless deep dives, endless essays, and mountains of analysis trying to predict exactly how much the lockdowns and COVID were going to wreck our lives. But now, suddenly, everyone is pointing the finger exclusively at the sanctions against Russia that were slapped on less than six months ago like they're the only thing that matters.

Look, let's say the maniac hadn't invaded Ukraine—inflation would've still been a mess due to standard economic shifts, but things probably would've stabilized pretty fast.
But now we're stuck with a war and a massive energy crisis, so yeah, recovery is definitely going to take way longer.

Plus, there's a low chance of a brutal winter based on climate trends.
Before, I would've bet on major flooding.

Nicole Morris said:The realization hit much faster than anyone anticipated. They aren't idiots—they know perfectly well that a massive chunk of their industrial base relies on that gas. How many companies would flip from being hyper-profitable to completely insolvent if prices spiked eightfold? And what happens then? Unemployed people don't spend money—consumption craters, which leads to more layoffs. It’s a domino effect. Who exactly is going to fund the pensions for elderly Germans when the economy collapses?

The only real question left is what kind of terms Putin will demand before he decides to turn the taps back on.

They lit the match themselves and now they're choking on the smoke. The only issue is whether we get dragged down into the fire with them—damned if we do, damned if we don't. This whole sequence was predictable, honestly. It's just a shock to those armchair CIA warriors on the internet.

Terry Green3 said:But hey, we’re special. We won't make a sound, so there's no point in anyone even trying to warn us.

We’ve never really known what it means to be wealthy, so I suppose we handle the scarcity better.
Drawing some parallels here, I agree with the others: an average Russian—someone who still complains about the World Cup being held in Poland (hyperbole intended)—is going to weather these sanctions much easier than some European.
They have plenty of energy, plenty of food, and honestly, they don't need much else to get by. They don't know any better.

Emmanuel Macron actually said this back on February 26th during an address to French farmers.

It just goes to show that politicians love to push the same tired talking points, regardless of where they find themselves.

Nathan Evans78 said:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...acing-shutoffs

According to Bloomberg, we’re looking at a massive struggle right now—at least 20 million households, which is roughly one in six American homes, are falling behind on their utility bills. These skyrocketing electricity prices are triggering what's being described as the worst utility payment crisis we've ever seen.

I have to wonder, what on earth is going on over in New York City? I was looking at this chart yesterday, and checking their site again today, it looks like traders are panicking and buying up everything at $300+ per unit. It seems like these buyers haven't really grasped the situation yet; they're missing the fact that Europe has already secured its supplies for the winter, so things should actually be looking fine. 🙏 🙏

https://www.investing.com/commoditie...treaming-chart

So, what’s the actual play here? Didn't the Americans cook up this whole situation just so they could ship LNG over to Europe and walk away with the biggest payday from this war?

Frenchmen
Just so they can cut down on those subsidy costs. Remember... the heating bills.
And since the French rely so heavily on nuclear, they aren't even that tied to gas. Maybe inflation is their real headache? Or a recession.
I mean, seriously—imagine what some Canadian politician would say about a crisis like this.

The real kicker could be... if we get a brutal winter and that whole "gas solidarity" thing within the European Union gets put to the test.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Greenlighting Nord Stream 2 would essentially be an admission of surrender to Russian pressure. The pipeline was stalled by certification issues driven purely by politics; given how much the political climate is deteriorating, reopening it would look like folding under Moscow's thumb. From a technical standpoint, there’s plenty of capacity available in Nord Stream 1 if anyone actually had the stomach to use it. But we've learned the hard way that Russia only shows a shred of good faith when they are clearly losing ground. Sanctions against the Russian Federation will eventually hit home—it just requires patience. Sure, in the short term, sanctions cause friction on both sides, but looking at the long game, Russia is in a far more precarious position. On the other hand, the Russians always act as if they have all the time in the world; they never seem to be in any rush. The current setup ensures that, eventually, time itself becomes their enemy.

Words just don't cut it sometimes. Honestly, you can talk until you're blue in the face, but it doesn't change a thing.
I’ve been saying this from day one: if you slap these stupid sanctions on instead of actually being smart about them, Russia is just going to end up making the same amount of money—if not more—off their energy exports. It’s basic math. Now, even with deliveries down to just 20%, they’re pulling in the same kind of cash they used to make when they were shipping 100%. The big players behind this didn't account for the fact that there isn't a hard price cap on the gas we're importing. They basically handed them a win.
Those amateurs were all talking big, claiming Vladimir Putin would slash supplies if we actually slapped those price caps on him. Well, look at us now. He’s cutting back precisely because there aren't any limits in place, and suddenly everyone's acting like nothing happened. It's like watching someone predict a storm, only to stand there in the rain acting surprised when it pours. Honestly, just shake it off and let's get back to work. We're still out here sticking to these NS2 sanctions that don't even make sense. Onward to the next win, I guess. 😁

Unless this whole thing is just one big political game—you know, like those brainless sanctions where they’re basically shooting themselves in the foot just to prep for more pressure on Ukraine to force some kind of political compromise—then I don't know what else to call it.

rustywalker82 said:Words just don't cut it sometimes. Honestly, you can talk until you're blue in the face, but it doesn't change a thing.
I’ve been saying this from day one: if you slap these stupid sanctions on instead of actually being smart about them, Russia is just going to end up making the same amount of money—if not more—off their energy exports. It’s basic math. Now, even with deliveries down to just 20%, they’re pulling in the same kind of cash they used to make when they were shipping 100%. The big players behind this didn't account for the fact that there isn't a hard price cap on the gas we're importing. They basically handed them a win.
Those amateurs were all talking big, claiming Vladimir Putin would slash supplies if we actually slapped those price caps on him. Well, look at us now. He’s cutting back precisely because there aren't any limits in place, and suddenly everyone's acting like nothing happened. It's like watching someone predict a storm, only to stand there in the rain acting surprised when it pours. Honestly, just shake it off and let's get back to work. We're still out here sticking to these NS2 sanctions that don't even make sense. Onward to the next win, I guess. 😁

Unless this whole thing is just one big political game—you know, like those brainless sanctions where they’re basically shooting themselves in the foot just to prep for more pressure on Ukraine to force some kind of political compromise—then I don't know what else to call it.

If consumers dislike the price of gas, they always have the option to simply not buy it. The issue isn't the immediate dollar amount on the bill; the issue is the price you will inevitably pay in the future if you tolerate aggression from the Russian Federation. Could the sanctions against Russia have been drafted differently? Likely. Can the Russians turn off the tap whenever they feel like it? Always, regardless of any agreement. Russia uses gas as one of its primary tools for geopolitical leverage; the Baltic states, Poland, and even Ukraine realized this long ago through public appeals. Currently, the nation most in trouble is the one that refused to diversify its supply routes because doing so seemed like a poor investment at the time. If they had financed something other than Nord Stream 2—perhaps a pipeline toward a different supplier—it would have made far more sense for both diversification and securing better pricing across the board. They operated under the naive assumption, much like Putin himself, that the situation could be viewed strictly through a rational, economic lens. They thought he only cared about the bottom line. In reality, his primary objectives have nothing to do with economics. You cannot negotiate with him on purely economic terms; you have to position yourself strategically.

It’s basically a massive strategic blunder, right? Why would we dump billions into developing huge new gas fields outside of the US and then sink even more cash into this insane logistics nightmare—moving stuff twice on land, twice at sea, and then twice more on the coast—all while simultaneously trying to fund a total decarbonization push where gas is already considered redundant?
If you went back in time ten times and expected that kind of outcome, it wouldn't have happened once. Maybe if we had actually doubled down on those types of investments back then instead of being so cautious, we might have seen a different result just once.

There isn't some deep, hidden wisdom here. It’s really just about implementing smart sanctions. Honestly, pushing the narrative about sanctioning NS2 right now instead of focusing on price caps feels less like strategy and more like falling down a rabbit hole of conspiracy theories.

rustywalker82 said:It’s basically a massive strategic blunder, right? Why would we dump billions into developing huge new gas fields outside of the US and then sink even more cash into this insane logistics nightmare—moving stuff twice on land, twice at sea, and then twice more on the coast—all while simultaneously trying to fund a total decarbonization push where gas is already considered redundant?
If you went back in time ten times and expected that kind of outcome, it wouldn't have happened once. Maybe if we had actually doubled down on those types of investments back then instead of being so cautious, we might have seen a different result just once.

There isn't some deep, hidden wisdom here. It’s really just about implementing smart sanctions. Honestly, pushing the narrative about sanctioning NS2 right now instead of focusing on price caps feels less like strategy and more like falling down a rabbit hole of conspiracy theories.

That isn't quite how it works.

Nancy Gomez26 said:If consumers dislike the price of gas, they always have the option to simply not buy it. The issue isn't the immediate dollar amount on the bill; the issue is the price you will inevitably pay in the future if you tolerate aggression from the Russian Federation. Could the sanctions against Russia have been drafted differently? Likely. Can the Russians turn off the tap whenever they feel like it? Always, regardless of any agreement. Russia uses gas as one of its primary tools for geopolitical leverage; the Baltic states, Poland, and even Ukraine realized this long ago through public appeals. Currently, the nation most in trouble is the one that refused to diversify its supply routes because doing so seemed like a poor investment at the time. If they had financed something other than Nord Stream 2—perhaps a pipeline toward a different supplier—it would have made far more sense for both diversification and securing better pricing across the board. They operated under the naive assumption, much like Putin himself, that the situation could be viewed strictly through a rational, economic lens. They thought he only cared about the bottom line. In reality, his primary objectives have nothing to do with economics. You cannot negotiate with him on purely economic terms; you have to position yourself strategically.

I'm right there with you. Honestly, some people would rather freeze solid just to see Putin fail and watch Russia finally fracture the way certain folks want it to. Tell me, do you have some kind of study showing how an industry, say Dow Chemical, could run just as smoothly without gas as they do with it? Meanwhile, you guys have gone all-in on solar, wind, and thermal pumps, running a company powered by every "miracle" of green tech available.
Russia is a reality, and history didn't just start on January 22nd. Western civilization won't get past this without using both conscience and common sense—and let’s not forget how much less of a "problem" oil, gas, and sunflower oil were when Iraq and Syria were being torn apart. We aren't going to move forward by ignoring that.

Morgan Morales4 said:I'm right there with you. Honestly, some people would rather freeze solid just to see Putin fail and watch Russia finally fracture the way certain folks want it to. Tell me, do you have some kind of study showing how an industry, say Dow Chemical, could run just as smoothly without gas as they do with it? Meanwhile, you guys have gone all-in on solar, wind, and thermal pumps, running a company powered by every "miracle" of green tech available.
Russia is a reality, and history didn't just start on January 22nd. Western civilization won't get past this without using both conscience and common sense—and let’s not forget how much less of a "problem" oil, gas, and sunflower oil were when Iraq and Syria were being torn apart. We aren't going to move forward by ignoring that.

And what exactly happened on January 22nd?

Michael Ortiz68 said:That isn't quite how it works.

Gas also contributes to the greenhouse effect, and there isn't some magical ecological win if everything ends up being insanely expensive because we're forced into massive, pricey new investments. When costs skyrocket like that, it just drains the money away from actually subsidizing truly green energy sources.
It isn't that simple. At the end of the day, you have to look at what it actually costs on the bill.

“The EU basically shot itself in the foot with those sanctions” 🙂

Let's be real for a second—suppose we didn't even bother with sanctions. Let's just say the EU and the US kept providing military and financial aid to Ukraine while treating the gas and oil business as strictly "business as usual." Honestly, don't you think Putin would still have choked off the gas supply? He’d just use it as a political weapon to try and blackmail everyone into stopping the support for Ukraine.
It's not like this would be his first rodeo, either. He started setting the stage back in 2021 right after the decision to go to war was made, and we saw those gas deliveries start to tank during the second half of that year.
I’d bet money that's when we'd actually see people in the West getting riled up, yelling at politicians, “Hey, you didn't even sanction the aggressor, and we're still stuck with high gas and oil prices anyway!”

https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/re...kraine-fatigue

Support for Ukraine isn't actually flagging. Over 80% of Americans are willing to stomach higher energy costs if it means keeping up the support, and they believe we need to stick it out until the end.
We're seeing pretty much the same numbers across other Western nations, too. Public support for Ukraine isn't going anywhere.

rustywalker82 said:Gas also contributes to the greenhouse effect, and there isn't some magical ecological win if everything ends up being insanely expensive because we're forced into massive, pricey new investments. When costs skyrocket like that, it just drains the money away from actually subsidizing truly green energy sources.
It isn't that simple. At the end of the day, you have to look at what it actually costs on the bill.

That wasn't quite my point... I was focusing more on the financing aspect. Gas and renewables are being lumped together under the "green" umbrella specifically so these projects can access subsidies and funding, even though their actual GHG profiles are worlds apart.

The whole strategy is designed so that gas research and infrastructure projects aren't flagged as being at odds with green policy, regardless of the reality of the situation.

Terry Green3 said:But hey, we’re special. We won't make a sound, so there's no point in anyone even trying to warn us.

We’ve never really known what it means to be wealthy, so I suppose we handle the scarcity better.
Drawing some parallels here, I agree with the others: an average Russian—someone who still complains about the World Cup being held in Poland (hyperbole intended)—is going to weather these sanctions much easier than some European.
They have plenty of energy, plenty of food, and honestly, they don't need much else to get by. They don't know any better.

Such nonsense! Without any actual insight into French politics, it’s just our so-called "journalists" translating stuff from the Daily Mail. Either they're doing it for free, or these so-called journalists just happen to speak English...

If the Americans move, Macron will be the first one to pull out everything France has in reserve. And they have plenty... they're still the strongest military power in the EU...
If not for any other reason, it's because the guy can't just forget the personal insults and humiliation dealt by that oily KGB psychopath with a 2.5 cm IQ...

hollowdriver13 said:“The EU basically shot itself in the foot with those sanctions” 🙂

Let's be real for a second—suppose we didn't even bother with sanctions. Let's just say the EU and the US kept providing military and financial aid to Ukraine while treating the gas and oil business as strictly "business as usual." Honestly, don't you think Putin would still have choked off the gas supply? He’d just use it as a political weapon to try and blackmail everyone into stopping the support for Ukraine.
It's not like this would be his first rodeo, either. He started setting the stage back in 2021 right after the decision to go to war was made, and we saw those gas deliveries start to tank during the second half of that year.
I’d bet money that's when we'd actually see people in the West getting riled up, yelling at politicians, “Hey, you didn't even sanction the aggressor, and we're still stuck with high gas and oil prices anyway!”

https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/re...kraine-fatigue

Support for Ukraine isn't actually flagging. Over 80% of Americans are willing to stomach higher energy costs if it means keeping up the support, and they believe we need to stick it out until the end.
We're seeing pretty much the same numbers across other Western nations, too. Public support for Ukraine isn't going anywhere.

Do you have a crystal ball or something? I'm telling you, it’s just business as usual. At 9:00 AM today, we saw nearly 5,000 contracts hitting at almost 320 EUR in Rotterdam.

Over at the Canadian Stock Exchange, where our buyers pull from—prices were trading at 285 EUR today.

All those headlines we've been seeing lately regarding energy prices here in the States? Honestly, that's nothing compared to what's coming. If things keep heading down this path, small business owners are going to see utility bills jump two or three times higher than even the worst forecasts we've heard.

Sure, the government can step in to help households, but the deficit created by doing that will be so massive we'll be paying off the fallout for years after this whole mess settles. ☕