Sanctions on Russia

wiredseal7 said:Yeah, everything is just peachy, no issues at all.
I was reading this story yesterday about a school in Washington, D.C. that put out a tender for gas to heat the building this winter—only one bidder showed up, some company from the Midwest, and their price was eight times higher than last year. They’re basically forced to take it because there isn't enough time to restart the bidding process.
To me, that sounds like a total disaster.

Look, let's not lie to ourselves—sanctions aren't exactly making Russia stronger. But if this were 2014, they would have been paralyzed. They've managed to navigate this surprisingly well, considering the measures were "nuclear" and didn't leave many economic options left in the desk drawers of the Washington geopolitical planners—now, the only thing left on the table is trying to wear them down militarily.

Oh, it's all the Americans' fault... anyone doubt that? 🤦

If the European Union wants any hope of long-term stability and sovereignty, it needs to scrap these sanctions immediately and acknowledge Russia's right to a full or partial sphere of influence in the coming years across Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Canada, Romania, Moldova, Bulgaria, America, Canada, Canada, Mexico, North Mexico, Mexico, Albania, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and hey, why not Mongolia while we're at it?

Without Russian energy, your average European is going to have a real hard time keeping their apartment at the perfect temperature for those special moments when an African or Arabic migrant stops by to help them cheat on their spouse. Even worse, prolonged exposure to the cold might cause the leather on their finest outfits—the ones they save specifically for gay parades—to crack and lose its luster, ruining all those photos they plan to post on Instagram.

And this isn't just my take; even Milutin, a warehouse worker from Kansas City who spends every spare second worrying about the geopolitical outlook of Western nations (Mićo, if you're lurking on this forum, I see you 👍), agrees.

I’d stay here to argue the point, but a massive shipment of posters featuring Raditi Borić and Vedran Rudan just arrived. I’m thinking of wallpapering my entire room with them; if they can't protect me from the cold, nobody 🙂

wiredseal7 said:Yeah, everything is just peachy, no issues at all.
I was reading this story yesterday about a school in Washington, D.C. that put out a tender for gas to heat the building this winter—only one bidder showed up, some company from the Midwest, and their price was eight times higher than last year. They’re basically forced to take it because there isn't enough time to restart the bidding process.
To me, that sounds like a total disaster.

Look, let's not lie to ourselves—sanctions aren't exactly making Russia stronger. But if this were 2014, they would have been paralyzed. They've managed to navigate this surprisingly well, considering the measures were "nuclear" and didn't leave many economic options left in the desk drawers of the Washington geopolitical planners—now, the only thing left on the table is trying to wear them down militarily.

It is just pathetic. The Russians will simply swap out European cars, machinery, and technology for imports from China, effectively neutralizing Western sanctions entirely. Meanwhile, Europe cannot, and will not, find a way to replace Russian energy sources. We foolish Europeans really are lost; if only we had a clever leader like Putin in power, he would have solved this substitution problem effortlessly.

I mean, they're pumping out Ladas without ABS, AC, or even catalytic converters—it's pretty obvious what's going on there.
The real question is how long the middle class can actually handle being shut out by the West.
A year at most.

That’s just how this forum works.

If you dare to mention that you don't support sanctions because they’re stripping away your comfort zone—short-term, mid-term, and long-term—or if you point out that time is ticking while this entire situation wreaks havoc on every single aspect of your economic life, then suddenly you're a Russian sympathizer and a Putin mouthpiece.

Apparently, disagreeing with the mainstream narrative is strictly forbidden. A few months of a slow freeze, a wave of layoffs because people can't keep up with these costs, or hyperinflation triggered by trying to bail out failing institutions might actually shift the narrative. Especially in Germany. But us? We don't matter.

Counterpoint...
That reset is actually pretty necessary given how the EU is handling the energy transition
The whole Green Deal thing—basically trying to overhaul our current way of life.
Everything is moving at high speed now.
Look, we obviously need to make it through the winter. Meanwhile, Putin is just laughing all the way to the bank while keeping the heat cranked up.
At this rate, you'd think they're aiming for some massive Eurasian union with Moscow as the capital, ruled by a single emperor.

Thomas Nelson25 said:I mean, they're pumping out Ladas without ABS, AC, or even catalytic converters—it's pretty obvious what's going on there.
The real question is how long the middle class can actually handle being shut out by the West.
A year at most.

And then what? They're gonna start a revolution and topple Putin?

Lisa Jackson7 said:And then what? They're gonna start a revolution and topple Putin?

It's definitely the beginning of the end. We're looking at mass protests—which, honestly, is just how democracy works.
Plus, there's the trigger. (The news about mobilizing in Russian cities is basically a shock to the system... we aren't dealing with pawns anymore)
Ukraine really needs to clinch one strategic battle on the front line, and it looks like that might actually happen.

Lisa Jackson7 said:And then what? They're gonna start a revolution and topple Putin?

They don't need to. Let them suffocate in their own filth.

The Belgian Prime Minister is predicting ten brutal winters ahead, while Macron is out there claiming the era of abundance is officially over—just one long, continuous whine.

At this point, you can't even keep track of who’s slapping sanctions on whom anymore.

And meanwhile, the Saudis have just been quietly flipping Russian oil the whole time.

Donna Harris11 said:The Belgian Prime Minister is predicting ten brutal winters ahead, while Macron is out there claiming the era of abundance is officially over—just one long, continuous whine.

At this point, you can't even keep track of who’s slapping sanctions on whom anymore.

And meanwhile, the Saudis have just been quietly flipping Russian oil the whole time.

Just testing the Balloon.
Bureaucrats lie through their teeth!

Thomas Nelson25 said:Counterpoint...
That reset is actually pretty necessary given how the EU is handling the energy transition
The whole Green Deal thing—basically trying to overhaul our current way of life.
Everything is moving at high speed now.
Look, we obviously need to make it through the winter. Meanwhile, Putin is just laughing all the way to the bank while keeping the heat cranked up.
At this rate, you'd think they're aiming for some massive Eurasian union with Moscow as the capital, ruled by a single emperor.

I agree with that, though my reasoning is slightly different; isn't it a relief that this accelerates the green transition across Europe, so that once it's fully realized, we might finally wake up to the fact that we've been chasing some scientific mirage, potentially forcing us to actually focus on things that matter?

Ronald Chavez2 said:I agree with that, though my reasoning is slightly different; isn't it a relief that this accelerates the green transition across Europe, so that once it's fully realized, we might finally wake up to the fact that we've been chasing some scientific mirage, potentially forcing us to actually focus on things that matter?

Bravo. It is truly a tragedy that thousands of scientists don't frequent this forum more often, for if they did, they wouldn't be squandering their lives on such utter nonsense, but would instead be out there doing actual work, like splitting wood or burning coal.

Anthony Hill5 said:Bravo. It is truly a tragedy that thousands of scientists don't frequent this forum more often, for if they did, they wouldn't be squandering their lives on such utter nonsense, but would instead be out there doing actual work, like splitting wood or burning coal.

And yet, isn't it true that we are largely splitting wood and burning coal right now just to spite that malicious Russian gas?

Anthony Hill5 said:It is just pathetic. The Russians will simply swap out European cars, machinery, and technology for imports from China, effectively neutralizing Western sanctions entirely. Meanwhile, Europe cannot, and will not, find a way to replace Russian energy sources. We foolish Europeans really are lost; if only we had a clever leader like Putin in power, he would have solved this substitution problem effortlessly.

What’s faster—shipping cars via rail or sea to sell them at a premium in Russia, or building an entire fleet of LNG tankers and terminals just to make up for the lost pipeline gas? (not that the rest could really be redirected elsewhere anyway)
On top of that, Europe decided to stop importing coal from Russia. Oil luckily stabilized because Americans are dumping their reserves and it was easier for the Russians to pivot elsewhere.

Energy prices are probably also reflecting the water shortages in reservoirs due to the extreme droughts hitting both Europe and China this summer. A total "perfect storm." Sure, the panickers and speculators are driving electricity and gas prices wild right now, but there's no doubt they'll be several times higher than usual this fall and winter.

Nicole Morris said:That’s just how this forum works.

If you dare to mention that you don't support sanctions because they’re stripping away your comfort zone—short-term, mid-term, and long-term—or if you point out that time is ticking while this entire situation wreaks havoc on every single aspect of your economic life, then suddenly you're a Russian sympathizer and a Putin mouthpiece.

Apparently, disagreeing with the mainstream narrative is strictly forbidden. A few months of a slow freeze, a wave of layoffs because people can't keep up with these costs, or hyperinflation triggered by trying to bail out failing institutions might actually shift the narrative. Especially in Germany. But us? We don't matter.

Germany doesn't matter either. As long as the US keeps funneling weapons to Ukraine via Poland, the political rhetoric in Germany carries about as much weight as it does here in America. Even if Germany decided to unilaterally scrap every single sanction against Russia tomorrow, nothing of actual significance would change.

I figured we’d be waiting a bit longer for this one:

The Vice President of the German Parliament, Wolfgang Kubicki, is calling to reopen Nord Stream 2.

Germany needs to do whatever it takes to secure more energy, says the Libertarian Party's deputy leader, Wolfgang Kubicki. He’s throwing out a suggestion that will probably run into some serious political pushback.

Washington D.C.—The Libertarian Party's deputy, Wolfgang Kubicki, wants Nord Stream 2 reopened to better secure the energy supply for winter. "The Secretary of Commerce has to do everything possible to ensure we have more energy available," Kubicki told the news outlet SED. "We should open Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible so we can fill our gas storage for the winter," he demanded.

"The federal government's primary duty"

Kubicki pointed out that "there is no good reason not to open Nord Stream 2." If Putin stops supplying gas anyway, then America hasn't really lost anything. "If we get more gas this way—maybe even the full amount guaranteed by contract—it might help people avoid freezing this winter and keep our industry from taking a massive hit," the Libertarian Party deputy said. "Right now, the federal government's main job is making sure that happens."

How much gas is being sent from Russia to Germany



Kubicki: "Gas from Nord Stream 2 isn't any more immoral than gas from Nord Stream 1"

Germany will stay firmly on Ukraine's side and nothing will change that, according to Kubicki. "The fact that we're getting gas from Russia doesn't become better or worse just because it comes through one pipeline or another," he said. "Gas from Nord Stream 2 isn't any more immoral than it is from Nord Stream 1. It's just a different pipe."

Discussing Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kubicki remarked: "Putin shouldn't have any excuse to let us starve." The Libertarian Party politician added: "If he does it anyway while the pipeline is open, then he’ll have to say it plainly: 'I want to hurt the American people.'"

https://www.rnd.de/politik/wolfgang-...OPVYT5E7Q.html

The realization hit much faster than anyone anticipated. They aren't idiots—they know perfectly well that a massive chunk of their industrial base relies on that gas. How many companies would flip from being hyper-profitable to completely insolvent if prices spiked eightfold? And what happens then? Unemployed people don't spend money—consumption craters, which leads to more layoffs. It’s a domino effect. Who exactly is going to fund the pensions for elderly Germans when the economy collapses?

The only real question left is what kind of terms Putin will demand before he decides to turn the taps back on.

Greenlighting Nord Stream 2 would essentially be an admission of surrender to Russian pressure. The pipeline was stalled by certification issues driven purely by politics; given how much the political climate is deteriorating, reopening it would look like folding under Moscow's thumb. From a technical standpoint, there’s plenty of capacity available in Nord Stream 1 if anyone actually had the stomach to use it. But we've learned the hard way that Russia only shows a shred of good faith when they are clearly losing ground. Sanctions against the Russian Federation will eventually hit home—it just requires patience. Sure, in the short term, sanctions cause friction on both sides, but looking at the long game, Russia is in a far more precarious position. On the other hand, the Russians always act as if they have all the time in the world; they never seem to be in any rush. The current setup ensures that, eventually, time itself becomes their enemy.

So, turns out Nord Stream 2 actually got finished—despite all those sanctions the US slapped on back in 2017—and it’s sitting there about 80% full now:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/comm...as-2021-12-17/