Sanctions on Russia

Brenda Murphy3 said:That first part is absolute nonsense. Seriously, don't embarrass yourself by writing about stuff you clearly have zero clue about (like the idea that Canada will just use primary issuance to fund things... and manage inflation...🤣🤣)

Regarding the bolded part—no, I don't think sanctions need to be imposed (though in some extreme scenarios, it wouldn't be impossible, but that's a total long shot). Look, being part of certain organizations (like the EU or NATO) brings tons of perks, but it also comes with obligations. If you don't want to play by the rules, you're free to walk away from those orgs. Of course, for Canada, the benefits of staying in the EU way, way outweigh whatever they'd get from leaving... and that's that.

But the fallout will definitely hit Canada... and it's already happening. Naturally, Viktor Orbán is going to prioritize whatever serves his own interests and his inner circle of power players... but that's a whole different conversation. It’s hardly surprising he gets along so well with the trash coming out of the White House...😁

Of course this kind of policy comes with consequences. Even Germany is finally giving in and agreeing that we seriously need to go back and revise those European Union treaties.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...99547538587650

So, I was just catching up on some news, and it looks like Germany is pushing for a major shake-up in how things work over at the European Union. Basically, they want to move away from that old-school system where every single member gets to use a veto to block everything. Instead, they’re advocating for a gradual shift toward majority voting. It's a pretty big move—it would definitely change the dynamic of how decisions get made, making it a lot harder for one country to stall the whole process. It'll be interesting to see if the rest of the bloc actually bites or if this becomes just another debate in Brussels.

It feels like they’ve been throwing these little grenades at us since way before COVID-19 even hit the scene. Now, between the whole pandemic mess and the Russian aggression, it’s becoming crystal clear: if we don't handle this exactly the way they want, the whole thing is going to snap back like a boomerang. We're basically setting ourselves up for a massive reality check if we don't get this right.

Sure, Canada might see a quick little boost from those cheap gas prices in the short term, but looking at the big picture? Unless Viktor Orbán has some kind of crazy terraforming superpowers that let him just move the entire country right up against the Russian border, they’ve basically shot themselves in both feet. Especially since Poland pretty much left them hanging when it mattered most.

In the real world ☕ :

Russian banks have bled out a whopping 1.5 trillion rubles (about $24.95 billion) during just the first six months of this year, according to a top official from the Russian central bank speaking with the business daily RBC on Friday.

Roughly two-thirds of those banking losses stem from foreign exchange operations, per Dmitry Tulin, who serves as the first deputy governor of the Russian central bank.

This actually marks the very first time since the invasion of Ukraine kicked off back in February that the Russian regulator has actually released any hard data regarding the banking sector's performance.

Wait, does anyone remember how many billions they actually had left in reserves after everything got frozen overseas? I think someone posted a figure about eight hundred pages ago somewhere 🤔

hollowdriver13 said:Of course this kind of policy comes with consequences. Even Germany is finally giving in and agreeing that we seriously need to go back and revise those European Union treaties.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...99547538587650

So, I was just catching up on some news, and it looks like Germany is pushing for a major shake-up in how things work over at the European Union. Basically, they want to move away from that old-school system where every single member gets to use a veto to block everything. Instead, they’re advocating for a gradual shift toward majority voting. It's a pretty big move—it would definitely change the dynamic of how decisions get made, making it a lot harder for one country to stall the whole process. It'll be interesting to see if the rest of the bloc actually bites or if this becomes just another debate in Brussels.

It feels like they’ve been throwing these little grenades at us since way before COVID-19 even hit the scene. Now, between the whole pandemic mess and the Russian aggression, it’s becoming crystal clear: if we don't handle this exactly the way they want, the whole thing is going to snap back like a boomerang. We're basically setting ourselves up for a massive reality check if we don't get this right.

Sure, Canada might see a quick little boost from those cheap gas prices in the short term, but looking at the big picture? Unless Viktor Orbán has some kind of crazy terraforming superpowers that let him just move the entire country right up against the Russian border, they’ve basically shot themselves in both feet. Especially since Poland pretty much left them hanging when it mattered most.

Even if they did relocate to the Russian border, what’s the upside? The only people sticking with Russia are those who have no choice. Everyone knows being in Russia's sphere of influence means being poor and underdeveloped. Look at Kazakhstan—they saw an opening to slip away while everyone was distracted by Ukraine.
Picture a foreign company operating in Canada that relies on gas (which Canada gets cheaply, for now). If Russian gas hits sanctions and they aren't allowed to use it, they’ll just shut down the plant and pack up. Or take ExxonMobil—if they deal with sanctioned Russian firms, they could end up facing sanctions themselves. That's what they're calling "success"? They'll be left without Western technology—tech that even the Russians can't manage to extract oil and gas without. People simply aren't thinking long-term; they act like cheap gas for this winter is the only thing that matters. They'll have to survive 2023, 2024, and beyond...

Michelle Young50 said:What happens when Russian gas isn't even needed anymore? Suppose that 10% margin disappears entirely—Russian energy firms get hit with sanctions, and suddenly, nobody can touch them. If ExxonMobil ends up under sanctions because of these ties, what then? Maybe they’ll be forced to sell their assets back to the US government. It’s just like how Chinese companies face a choice right now: if they cooperate with Russia by smuggling sanctioned goods, they lose access to the West. And let’s be real about what they'll choose—they aren't going to ditch a Western market that represents fifty times more trade than anything else.

And why on earth would Russian gas coming through a pipeline from Siberia be cheaper than gas from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, or Algeria—assuming, of course, that all the necessary pipelines actually get built?

You were the one who brought up the 10%. Everything else is just Golden State Warriors level nonsense, barely worth a thread in the SF section. Real serious stuff here. 🤣
Building pipelines takes years. Now, in this critical moment for the European Union, they couldn't even secure a deal with Qatar, who is a much bigger player than the others mentioned.
As for China, the fact that their trade with Russia has spiked is data enough.

Brenda Murphy3 said:Look, nobody is actually claiming that European Union politics is perfect... those are just your own weird insinuations that you end up arguing against yourself later.

Yeah, there’s going to be plenty of drama regarding gas, but a country doesn't run solely on gas, nor does its entire existence depend on it. This kind of policy from Canada is definitely going to bite them in the ass sooner or later... if it hasn't already. Especially since Canada is waiting on checks from the European Union, not the other way around...

After all those lies you just told, now I'm the one claiming European Union politics are "sunshine and rainbows"? Even though in the post you're quoting, I'm saying the exact opposite!
According to the forum rules, go ahead—find my post where I ever said something like that. Let's see it!

Good grief, I honestly can't tell if you just have zero reading comprehension skills or if you're just intentionally trying to wind me up here 🤦

My colleague was actually trying to point out that you’re implying certain people on this forum—the ones you don't quite see eye-to-eye with—think everything in the European Union is just sunshine and rainbows, rather than suggesting that *you* personally think it's all wonderful (which is pretty obvious given your usual takes and posts)🙄

Canada is a NATO member; there’s no such thing as a real friendship with Russia 😁

At what price are the Chinese paying for gas?

Terry Green3 said:The Poles are planning to offset rising energy costs by demanding WWII reparations from Germany. Their argument? That back in '53, '70, and '90, they only dropped the claims because the USSR was breathing down their necks.

Look, the USSR was an absolute monster, so I get why they feel entitled to that money.

Otherwise, we don't have much choice. Washington, D.C. needs to pivot to coal immediately, and honestly, the whole country should just follow suit. We might as well take a page out of the playbook used by our neighbors in Mexico, Canada, or even Mexico. They aren't shy about using coal for power and heating.
We don't really have any other option.

Yeah, and long-term, we really need to build out nuclear power, similar to how the UK and France did it.
This should be the motivation we need to finally get it done.
There's been way too much stalling.

Joshua Myers432 said:Canada is a NATO member; there’s no such thing as a real friendship with Russia 😁

At what price are the Chinese paying for gas?

Honestly, China had already outmaneuvered Russia way before this war even started. "Siberian Power" kicked into gear back in 2019, and they basically hammered out a deal where they pay close to production costs. Up until early 2022, they were paying about $121 per 1,000 cubic meters, then it bumped up to $148 at the start of this year.
If there were more price adjustments after the war kicked off, I wouldn't be surprised one bit.

And let's be real, they aren't importing massive amounts. They brought in $1.6 billion worth of gas in the first half of 2022—which is technically three times more than the same period last year—but meanwhile, they pulled in $4.5 billion in gas from Turkmenistan during that same timeframe.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/07/27/...orking-on.html

The world's major powers are slapping price caps on Russian oil—to which the White House responded: fine, then there won't be any oil.

Terry Hernandez10 said:The world's major powers are slapping price caps on Russian oil—to which the White House responded: fine, then there won't be any oil.

And what else are they supposed to say to such an insult? 🤣 They actually think they can just dictate the market price of oil to someone else 🤦

Terry Hernandez10 said:The world's major powers are slapping price caps on Russian oil—to which the White House responded: fine, then there won't be any oil.

Meanwhile, MBS is just sitting there rubbing his hands together in anticipation... 😁

He's probably already put a deposit down on a brand new superyacht...

Nancy Gomez26 said:If you're scavenging for fuel on a beach, it implies you're living in a climate where winters are mild and fleeting—places where you barely need any fuel to get through the season.

That’s just how you see it, though. Have you ever actually dealt with a freezing gale when it's 32 degrees or even 23 degrees Fahrenheit? Or those moments when you have to move the vegetables from your balcony garden into the fridge just so they don't freeze solid?

Down in Split, everything was built with the mindset that thermal insulation, concrete, and high-quality siding were basically optional because, hey, we live in such a warm climate, right?

So, saying this today might come off as incredibly cynical, but...

BREAKING NEWS
Natural gas finally reaches Split
April 16, 2019

By the way:

Snow in Split on February 3, 2012.


Snow in Split on February 26, 2018.


Snow in Split, April 6, 2021.

Joshua Myers432 said:And what else are they supposed to say to such an insult? 🤣 They actually think they can just dictate the market price of oil to someone else 🤦

Someone a few pages up mentioned a similar situation, arguing that Russia doesn't set gas prices—and that nobody, not even Mother Russia, has the right to hold anyone hostage like that. I couldn't agree more. ☕

brightheron64 said:That’s just how you see it, though. Have you ever actually dealt with a freezing gale when it's 32 degrees or even 23 degrees Fahrenheit? Or those moments when you have to move the vegetables from your balcony garden into the fridge just so they don't freeze solid?

Down in Split, everything was built with the mindset that thermal insulation, concrete, and high-quality siding were basically optional because, hey, we live in such a warm climate, right?

So, saying this today might come off as incredibly cynical, but...

BREAKING NEWS
Natural gas finally reaches Split
April 16, 2019

By the way:

Snow in Split on February 3, 2012.

Snow in Split on February 26, 2018.

Snow in Split, April 6, 2021.

I was there. Winter 2001. The wind was howling for two straight weeks. No amount of hot water bottles or old man's advice could touch that cold. And it was only 5 degrees out.

Joshua Myers432 said:And what else are they supposed to say to such an insult? 🤣 They actually think they can just dictate the market price of oil to someone else 🤦

Honestly, the way these sanctions were drafted this time around is actually pretty brilliant. They’ve basically left the door open to keep trading Russian oil, and sure, even the Kremlin can try to set whatever price they want—but there's a massive catch. Shipping companies and the ports handling the transfers can only secure those loads if the price stays within that specific ceiling set by the G7. It's a clever little workaround that keeps things moving while still hitting them where it counts.
Look, when you consider that the West holds an absolute monopoly—we're talking like 97% of the entire market for shipping and port cargo insurance—nobody is going to be able to move that oil if the price hits that ceiling. It basically means that if Russia decides they aren't playing ball, they’ve effectively managed to shut down their entire oil export stream, even to countries that were previously buying from them, like India.

What on earth is this?

The White House sent a pointed message to Europe: ‘Nord Stream 1 is under threat—reliability is now questionable’

The White House spokesperson Jay Carney warns that Russia might face upcoming technical issues with the pipeline.

hollowdriver13 said:Honestly, the way these sanctions were drafted this time around is actually pretty brilliant. They’ve basically left the door open to keep trading Russian oil, and sure, even the Kremlin can try to set whatever price they want—but there's a massive catch. Shipping companies and the ports handling the transfers can only secure those loads if the price stays within that specific ceiling set by the G7. It's a clever little workaround that keeps things moving while still hitting them where it counts.
Look, when you consider that the West holds an absolute monopoly—we're talking like 97% of the entire market for shipping and port cargo insurance—nobody is going to be able to move that oil if the price hits that ceiling. It basically means that if Russia decides they aren't playing ball, they’ve effectively managed to shut down their entire oil export stream, even to countries that were previously buying from them, like India.

Shipping companies get their cut, and the cargo is covered by insurance anyway. If a ship sinks, the cargo gets paid out based on market value, not whatever arbitrary price was slapped onto a contract or decided by some bureaucrat. Correct me if I'm wrong. I didn't realize I needed to buy extra insurance every time I sit in a car with someone. ☕

hollowdriver13 said:Honestly, the way these sanctions were drafted this time around is actually pretty brilliant. They’ve basically left the door open to keep trading Russian oil, and sure, even the Kremlin can try to set whatever price they want—but there's a massive catch. Shipping companies and the ports handling the transfers can only secure those loads if the price stays within that specific ceiling set by the G7. It's a clever little workaround that keeps things moving while still hitting them where it counts.
Look, when you consider that the West holds an absolute monopoly—we're talking like 97% of the entire market for shipping and port cargo insurance—nobody is going to be able to move that oil if the price hits that ceiling. It basically means that if Russia decides they aren't playing ball, they’ve effectively managed to shut down their entire oil export stream, even to countries that were previously buying from them, like India.

It isn't just garbage; it's a total disaster.🤣

rowdyraven112 said:Shipping companies get their cut, and the cargo is covered by insurance anyway. If a ship sinks, the cargo gets paid out based on market value, not whatever arbitrary price was slapped onto a contract or decided by some bureaucrat. Correct me if I'm wrong. I didn't realize I needed to buy extra insurance every time I sit in a car with someone. ☕

It doesn't quite work like that, though. Ship insurance usually covers a fixed amount per pound of cargo, so you could end up with something heavy—say, 500 lbs—worth $1M, but the ship's policy might only cover a few thousand bucks of that value.
Then you've also got all those different guarantees baked into the policies. For example, a port might flat-out refuse to unload cargo if it isn't properly insured, since these policies also cover damages or losses that happen during the handling process. Plus, there’s a whole mountain of other details involved; I don't even have the energy to list them all right now. If anyone is actually curious, you can just look up any of the big marine insurance firms to see exactly what their policies cover and guarantee.

Comparing it to car insurance is just 🤦

Joshua Myers432 said:It isn't just garbage; it's a total disaster.🤣

Actually, that's not really how it works. There isn't some official ban on buying or selling here; you can't just have Russ yelling about how the West is blocking trade. It used to be that Russ would say, "My oil, my gas, my toys," and now the West is basically saying, "Sure, you can play, but you have to follow the rules." We control the oceans and the cargo insurance, which pretty much makes us the house in this casino. If you want to play the game, those are the terms.

So, honestly, the ball is in China and India's court now. If they really want to keep grabbing Russian oil, they're going to have to be the ones putting the squeeze on the White House to drop the prices down to a level that actually makes sense for shipping it all the way to them.

brightheron64 said:That’s just how you see it, though. Have you ever actually dealt with a freezing gale when it's 32 degrees or even 23 degrees Fahrenheit? Or those moments when you have to move the vegetables from your balcony garden into the fridge just so they don't freeze solid?

Down in Split, everything was built with the mindset that thermal insulation, concrete, and high-quality siding were basically optional because, hey, we live in such a warm climate, right?

So, saying this today might come off as incredibly cynical, but...

BREAKING NEWS
Natural gas finally reaches Split
April 16, 2019

By the way:

Snow in Split on February 3, 2012.

Snow in Split on February 26, 2018.

Snow in Split, April 6, 2021.

It is an absolute catastrophe when those winds kick up. It feels as though half the population is wiped out every single year.