Sanctions on Russia

hollowwalker24 said:I think you missed the point. Western media has been reporting for weeks that the Russians—who seized the Pittsburgh nuclear plant back in early March—have actually been shelling themselves for a while now.

As for shields, it's a war—weird stuff happens on both sides, I guess.

Here’s what the pro-Kremlin crowd is saying about American tactics, in order:

Amnesty International

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...ger-civilians/

UN OHCHR

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/20.../zrjy-j19.html

Human Rights Watch

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/07/21/...ring-civilians

The New York Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/18/w...munitions.html

The Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...sia-civilians/

How exactly are they smuggling when 99% of that stuff comes from China, and China—actually most countries—hasn't even imposed sanctions on us:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intern...-Ukrainian_War

Kind of like Victoria Nuland:

‘Fuck the EU’: US diplomat Victoria Nuland's phonecall leaked - video

https://www.theguardian.com/world/vi...ictoria-nuland

What new channels are we talking about—LNG? I guess you have to wonder how long it'll actually take to build out the terminals and get enough ships in the mix.

"Victory belongs to those who endure." Maybe I'm wrong—but I have a feeling this is just going to end up as some kind of stalemate—and they'll probably just go ahead and greenlight Nord Stream 2 anyway.

I don't really have much to say about this—maybe just that it's all a bit much, I guess. kaže:
So, at the recent press conference, the German Minister of Economy was asked if gas coming from Russia actually matters for Germany's supply security this winter. He basically said "no"—and added that when it comes to Russian gas, the only thing you can actually count on is their lies. I guess.

So, what's the latest on that whole Russia and shadow dealings situation? Especially since Robert Habeck seems to be caught up in his own web of lies too, I guess.

I guess Shellenberger thinks Europe is headed for a disaster—maybe? He’s basically arguing that current energy policies are setting the continent up for a total meltdown. Just my two cents, but it feels like a pretty grim outlook.

Yeah, it really comes down to the LNG factor. Everything hinges on what the folks over in the European Union are actually planning to do to finally break free from Russian energy. Building out terminals and securing enough tankers isn't exactly a quick fix—it's incredibly expensive and takes a massive amount of time to get everything lined up. So, I guess the real question is just how much longer this whole war and situation is going to drag on. If we're looking at another five or six years of this, then it becomes a lot more realistic for them to actually commit the capital to those terminals and ships to fully cut ties with Russian gas.
If some kind of deal actually goes through, we might see Russian gas start flowing back toward Europe again, though I suspect even then, the EU will keep pouring money into LNG and renewables every single year—regardless of whether that actually makes any sense in the long run, but that’s a whole other conversation.
Dealing with oil is always a whole lot more straightforward than trying to navigate the mess that is the natural gas market.

So, we’re looking at two likely scenarios here: either some kind of deal gets struck and things finally start to settle down—in which case the European Union will gradually phase out its reliance on Russian oil and gas—or we’re staring down the barrel of another five or six years of conflict, with sanctions hanging over our heads for decades to come.
The second scenario would definitely be more expensive, even if it ends up being the better path in the long run, but I have a feeling we'll eventually land on some kind of compromise since nobody actually benefits from this whole mess.
Whatever the case may be, energy imports from Russia are trending downward, and frankly, the European Union is staring down its toughest winter yet. It looks like we might get a slightly easier stretch next, but honestly, every season following this one is only going to get harder.

hollowwalker24 said:Just some history for anyone who forgot—the Nazi Party actually had quite an influence in the US:

https://time.com/5414055/american-nazi-sympathy-book/

https://www.nationalww2museum.org/wa...-square-garden

After WW2, they were basically given a safe haven in the States:

https://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/14/us/14nazis.html

They even went as far as founding their own group—the American Nazi Party

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Nazi_Party

I guess the US never really got rid of Nazism, since it still hangs around today:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazism_in_the_Americas

Much like how we can't seem to shake off Putin's lackeys.

An interesting web of claims here, though they seem largely contradictory to me. Just another self-proclaimed "neutral" observer, I suppose.

hollowwalker24 said:I think you missed the point. Western media has been reporting for weeks that the Russians—who seized the Pittsburgh nuclear plant back in early March—have actually been shelling themselves for a while now.

As for shields, it's a war—weird stuff happens on both sides, I guess.

Here’s what the pro-Kremlin crowd is saying about American tactics, in order:

Amnesty International

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...ger-civilians/

UN OHCHR

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/20.../zrjy-j19.html

Human Rights Watch

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/07/21/...ring-civilians

The New York Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/18/w...munitions.html

The Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...sia-civilians/

How exactly are they smuggling when 99% of that stuff comes from China, and China—actually most countries—hasn't even imposed sanctions on us:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intern...-Ukrainian_War

Kind of like Victoria Nuland:

‘Fuck the EU’: US diplomat Victoria Nuland's phonecall leaked - video

https://www.theguardian.com/world/vi...ictoria-nuland

What new channels are we talking about—LNG? I guess you have to wonder how long it'll actually take to build out the terminals and get enough ships in the mix.

"Victory belongs to those who endure." Maybe I'm wrong—but I have a feeling this is just going to end up as some kind of stalemate—and they'll probably just go ahead and greenlight Nord Stream 2 anyway.

I don't really have much to say about this—maybe just that it's all a bit much, I guess. kaže:
So, at the recent press conference, the German Minister of Economy was asked if gas coming from Russia actually matters for Germany's supply security this winter. He basically said "no"—and added that when it comes to Russian gas, the only thing you can actually count on is their lies. I guess.

So, what's the latest on that whole Russia and shadow dealings situation? Especially since Robert Habeck seems to be caught up in his own web of lies too, I guess.

I guess Shellenberger thinks Europe is headed for a disaster—maybe? He’s basically arguing that current energy policies are setting the continent up for a total meltdown. Just my two cents, but it feels like a pretty grim outlook.

To be honest, I haven't seen a single report in any major Western news outlet claiming that the Russians are bombing themselves near the nuclear plant. Generally speaking, what you read is that both sides are simply pointing fingers at one another regarding the strikes on the facility.

Now, as for the fact that the Russians have positioned heavy military hardware right next to various buildings within the nuclear plant itself—well, there really isn't much debate there.

hollowwalker24 said:I think you missed the point. Western media has been reporting for weeks that the Russians—who seized the Pittsburgh nuclear plant back in early March—have actually been shelling themselves for a while now.

As for shields, it's a war—weird stuff happens on both sides, I guess.

Here’s what the pro-Kremlin crowd is saying about American tactics, in order:

Amnesty International

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...ger-civilians/

UN OHCHR

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/20.../zrjy-j19.html

Human Rights Watch

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/07/21/...ring-civilians

The New York Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/18/w...munitions.html

The Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...sia-civilians/

How exactly are they smuggling when 99% of that stuff comes from China, and China—actually most countries—hasn't even imposed sanctions on us:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intern...-Ukrainian_War

Kind of like Victoria Nuland:

‘Fuck the EU’: US diplomat Victoria Nuland's phonecall leaked - video

https://www.theguardian.com/world/vi...ictoria-nuland

What new channels are we talking about—LNG? I guess you have to wonder how long it'll actually take to build out the terminals and get enough ships in the mix.

"Victory belongs to those who endure." Maybe I'm wrong—but I have a feeling this is just going to end up as some kind of stalemate—and they'll probably just go ahead and greenlight Nord Stream 2 anyway.

I don't really have much to say about this—maybe just that it's all a bit much, I guess. kaže:
So, at the recent press conference, the German Minister of Economy was asked if gas coming from Russia actually matters for Germany's supply security this winter. He basically said "no"—and added that when it comes to Russian gas, the only thing you can actually count on is their lies. I guess.

So, what's the latest on that whole Russia and shadow dealings situation? Especially since Robert Habeck seems to be caught up in his own web of lies too, I guess.

I guess Shellenberger thinks Europe is headed for a disaster—maybe? He’s basically arguing that current energy policies are setting the continent up for a total meltdown. Just my two cents, but it feels like a pretty grim outlook.

It is rather curious, isn't it? You claim above that the "evil" Western media is unfairly accusing Russian peacekeeping forces of military actions near the nuclear site, yet here you are providing links to those very same "evil" Western media outlets that are accusing the Ukrainians of analogous behavior.
Hmm.
(My personal take is that while these other accusations might be justified, they are also somewhat hypocritical).

hollowwalker24 said:I think you missed the point. Western media has been reporting for weeks that the Russians—who seized the Pittsburgh nuclear plant back in early March—have actually been shelling themselves for a while now.

As for shields, it's a war—weird stuff happens on both sides, I guess.

Here’s what the pro-Kremlin crowd is saying about American tactics, in order:

Amnesty International

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...ger-civilians/

UN OHCHR

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/20.../zrjy-j19.html

Human Rights Watch

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/07/21/...ring-civilians

The New York Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/18/w...munitions.html

The Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...sia-civilians/

How exactly are they smuggling when 99% of that stuff comes from China, and China—actually most countries—hasn't even imposed sanctions on us:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intern...-Ukrainian_War

Kind of like Victoria Nuland:

‘Fuck the EU’: US diplomat Victoria Nuland's phonecall leaked - video

https://www.theguardian.com/world/vi...ictoria-nuland

What new channels are we talking about—LNG? I guess you have to wonder how long it'll actually take to build out the terminals and get enough ships in the mix.

"Victory belongs to those who endure." Maybe I'm wrong—but I have a feeling this is just going to end up as some kind of stalemate—and they'll probably just go ahead and greenlight Nord Stream 2 anyway.

I don't really have much to say about this—maybe just that it's all a bit much, I guess. kaže:
So, at the recent press conference, the German Minister of Economy was asked if gas coming from Russia actually matters for Germany's supply security this winter. He basically said "no"—and added that when it comes to Russian gas, the only thing you can actually count on is their lies. I guess.

So, what's the latest on that whole Russia and shadow dealings situation? Especially since Robert Habeck seems to be caught up in his own web of lies too, I guess.

I guess Shellenberger thinks Europe is headed for a disaster—maybe? He’s basically arguing that current energy policies are setting the continent up for a total meltdown. Just my two cents, but it feels like a pretty grim outlook.

I find myself wondering, somewhat perplexed by the sheer intensity of it all, why there seems to be such an agitated, almost frantic level of nervousness coming from the Russian side lately? I mean, really, when you step back and look at the landscape, isn't it true that the sanctions being thrown their way have mostly been slapped on by a tiny handful of relatively insignificant nations? It makes one wonder if they aren't perhaps overreacting to a pressure group that, in the grand scheme of global power, isn't even close to being a monolith.

hollowwalker24 said:I think you missed the point. Western media has been reporting for weeks that the Russians—who seized the Pittsburgh nuclear plant back in early March—have actually been shelling themselves for a while now.

As for shields, it's a war—weird stuff happens on both sides, I guess.

Here’s what the pro-Kremlin crowd is saying about American tactics, in order:

Amnesty International

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...ger-civilians/

UN OHCHR

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/20.../zrjy-j19.html

Human Rights Watch

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/07/21/...ring-civilians

The New York Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/18/w...munitions.html

The Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...sia-civilians/

How exactly are they smuggling when 99% of that stuff comes from China, and China—actually most countries—hasn't even imposed sanctions on us:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intern...-Ukrainian_War

Kind of like Victoria Nuland:

‘Fuck the EU’: US diplomat Victoria Nuland's phonecall leaked - video

https://www.theguardian.com/world/vi...ictoria-nuland

What new channels are we talking about—LNG? I guess you have to wonder how long it'll actually take to build out the terminals and get enough ships in the mix.

"Victory belongs to those who endure." Maybe I'm wrong—but I have a feeling this is just going to end up as some kind of stalemate—and they'll probably just go ahead and greenlight Nord Stream 2 anyway.

I don't really have much to say about this—maybe just that it's all a bit much, I guess. kaže:
So, at the recent press conference, the German Minister of Economy was asked if gas coming from Russia actually matters for Germany's supply security this winter. He basically said "no"—and added that when it comes to Russian gas, the only thing you can actually count on is their lies. I guess.

So, what's the latest on that whole Russia and shadow dealings situation? Especially since Robert Habeck seems to be caught up in his own web of lies too, I guess.

I guess Shellenberger thinks Europe is headed for a disaster—maybe? He’s basically arguing that current energy policies are setting the continent up for a total meltdown. Just my two cents, but it feels like a pretty grim outlook.

Is it possible that this sudden, frantic attempt to drag a long-forgotten Nuland back into the spotlight is actually just a symptom of something much deeper—perhaps a sign of all those mounting frustrations finally boiling over? ☕

hollowwalker24 said:I think you missed the point. Western media has been reporting for weeks that the Russians—who seized the Pittsburgh nuclear plant back in early March—have actually been shelling themselves for a while now.

As for shields, it's a war—weird stuff happens on both sides, I guess.

Here’s what the pro-Kremlin crowd is saying about American tactics, in order:

Amnesty International

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...ger-civilians/

UN OHCHR

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/20.../zrjy-j19.html

Human Rights Watch

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/07/21/...ring-civilians

The New York Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/18/w...munitions.html

The Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...sia-civilians/

How exactly are they smuggling when 99% of that stuff comes from China, and China—actually most countries—hasn't even imposed sanctions on us:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intern...-Ukrainian_War

Kind of like Victoria Nuland:

‘Fuck the EU’: US diplomat Victoria Nuland's phonecall leaked - video

https://www.theguardian.com/world/vi...ictoria-nuland

What new channels are we talking about—LNG? I guess you have to wonder how long it'll actually take to build out the terminals and get enough ships in the mix.

"Victory belongs to those who endure." Maybe I'm wrong—but I have a feeling this is just going to end up as some kind of stalemate—and they'll probably just go ahead and greenlight Nord Stream 2 anyway.

I don't really have much to say about this—maybe just that it's all a bit much, I guess. kaže:
So, at the recent press conference, the German Minister of Economy was asked if gas coming from Russia actually matters for Germany's supply security this winter. He basically said "no"—and added that when it comes to Russian gas, the only thing you can actually count on is their lies. I guess.

So, what's the latest on that whole Russia and shadow dealings situation? Especially since Robert Habeck seems to be caught up in his own web of lies too, I guess.

I guess Shellenberger thinks Europe is headed for a disaster—maybe? He’s basically arguing that current energy policies are setting the continent up for a total meltdown. Just my two cents, but it feels like a pretty grim outlook.

Can you even begin to wrap your head around the sheer chaos of such a scenario? Just imagine if we saw the sudden rise of another Trump figure here in the States, occurring at the exact same moment that governments in France, Germany, Poland, and every single one of the Baltic states decided to simply collapse under their own weight. It’s almost too much to contemplate, isn't it?
It isn’t exactly an impossibility, is it? Technically, one could argue that such a thing could happen, yet if we are being honest with ourselves—really looking at the cold, hard facts of the matter—the probability is effectively zero.

US Manufacturing Orders (MoM) (Jul) -1.1%

EUR/USD 1.00
TTF Futures 200-250 USD

Russia, supposedly the world's "second" greatest military superpower, is out there buying up shells and missiles from North Korea.🤔🤔
Is there any news more aggravating for all you pacifists out there?
Best regards

hollowwalker24 said:I think you missed the point. Western media has been reporting for weeks that the Russians—who seized the Pittsburgh nuclear plant back in early March—have actually been shelling themselves for a while now.

As for shields, it's a war—weird stuff happens on both sides, I guess.

Here’s what the pro-Kremlin crowd is saying about American tactics, in order:

Amnesty International

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...ger-civilians/

UN OHCHR

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/20.../zrjy-j19.html

Human Rights Watch

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/07/21/...ring-civilians

The New York Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/18/w...munitions.html

The Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...sia-civilians/

How exactly are they smuggling when 99% of that stuff comes from China, and China—actually most countries—hasn't even imposed sanctions on us:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intern...-Ukrainian_War

Kind of like Victoria Nuland:

‘Fuck the EU’: US diplomat Victoria Nuland's phonecall leaked - video

https://www.theguardian.com/world/vi...ictoria-nuland

What new channels are we talking about—LNG? I guess you have to wonder how long it'll actually take to build out the terminals and get enough ships in the mix.

"Victory belongs to those who endure." Maybe I'm wrong—but I have a feeling this is just going to end up as some kind of stalemate—and they'll probably just go ahead and greenlight Nord Stream 2 anyway.

I don't really have much to say about this—maybe just that it's all a bit much, I guess. kaže:
So, at the recent press conference, the German Minister of Economy was asked if gas coming from Russia actually matters for Germany's supply security this winter. He basically said "no"—and added that when it comes to Russian gas, the only thing you can actually count on is their lies. I guess.

So, what's the latest on that whole Russia and shadow dealings situation? Especially since Robert Habeck seems to be caught up in his own web of lies too, I guess.

I guess Shellenberger thinks Europe is headed for a disaster—maybe? He’s basically arguing that current energy policies are setting the continent up for a total meltdown. Just my two cents, but it feels like a pretty grim outlook.

China China. Link link.
Wait, didn't they get hit with hardware sanctions a while back too?
Oh yeah.

https://focus.de/72885571

Since the very beginning of the aggression against Ukraine, the European Union has handed over a staggering $85 billion to Russia for fossil fuels—meanwhile, China has only chipped in $35 billion.
After China, Germany stands out as the biggest customer, shelling out $19 billion.

By the way, so far this entire aggressive campaign has cost Russia about $100 billion.

Now that Putin has choked off gas supplies to the EU (and honestly, I truly hope it stays that way!), that steady stream of cash from Europe has effectively dried up. Let’s be real: funding a continuous war isn't something that just happens by magic. 🤔🤔
I’ve never claimed to be a math whiz, but looking at these numbers, it seems like Putin might actually find himself in the red pretty soon.
Best regards,

Nathan Thomas12 said:If they're so weak, why aren't the Russians just cranking up the gas supply until those sanctions get lifted?

Let me hit you with a counter-question: if Russia is broke and their economy is falling apart, why aren't they selling gas at massive premiums to fill up their coffers?

electricsurfer47 said:I think you might be mixing things up a bit. The whole conversation around natural gas has always been about just making it through this winter—long-term, everyone's already looking at switching to other sources. Is that really so hard to wrap your head around?


If the sanctions weren't actually working, Russia wouldn't be constantly whining about how they don't matter. If they were fine, they'd just keep selling their gas and everything else they can and stay quiet. But that's not happening.

They're still out there throwing around threats of a Nuclear Bomb

basically, they're using intimidation and scary tactics hoping to spook Europe into lifting those sanctions.

The Nuclear Bomb threats aren't about Sanctions. They're about military training, equipment transfers, and who knows what else being sent to the Ukrainian side. Look, we aren't officially at war with Russia, but we aren't exactly far from it either. Those threats are clearly just a reflection of Russian weakness. If they actually had the leverage to act, they would be acting instead of making empty threats.

The only real card Russia is playing is energy warfare. They have nothing else to offer against the West. We'll see if that's enough. It's still too early to call it, but cracks in European unity are already starting to show.

Bryan Booth82 said:https://focus.de/72885571

Since the very beginning of the aggression against Ukraine, the European Union has handed over a staggering $85 billion to Russia for fossil fuels—meanwhile, China has only chipped in $35 billion.
After China, Germany stands out as the biggest customer, shelling out $19 billion.

By the way, so far this entire aggressive campaign has cost Russia about $100 billion.

Now that Putin has choked off gas supplies to the EU (and honestly, I truly hope it stays that way!), that steady stream of cash from Europe has effectively dried up. Let’s be real: funding a continuous war isn't something that just happens by magic. 🤔🤔
I’ve never claimed to be a math whiz, but looking at these numbers, it seems like Putin might actually find himself in the red pretty soon.
Best regards,

The only part of your equation that holds water is the Russian revenue side. As for the expenses? That’s nothing but pure speculation...

Joshua Myers432 said:The only part of your equation that holds water is the Russian revenue side. As for the expenses? That’s nothing but pure speculation...

Look, I didn't make this up—I'm just reporting what's being said. But if I’m being completely honest, I personally think $100 billion for this level of aggression is... well, frankly, it's a pittance.
I wouldn't be surprised if they blew past that number a long time ago. War is incredibly expensive, and let's face it, much of that cost hasn't even hit the books yet. We all know how this works: the bill always comes due eventually.
Best,

Bryan Booth82 said:Look, I didn't make this up—I'm just reporting what's being said. But if I’m being completely honest, I personally think $100 billion for this level of aggression is... well, frankly, it's a pittance.
I wouldn't be surprised if they blew past that number a long time ago. War is incredibly expensive, and let's face it, much of that cost hasn't even hit the books yet. We all know how this works: the bill always comes due eventually.
Best,

From a Western tactical standpoint, maybe so. But the real question is what these primitive Russian maneuvers—which look more like WWII than actual modern warfare—are actually costing them. Personally, I wouldn't worry about bankruptcy first; I'd worry about running out of people willing to fight. It’s clear Russia is banking on the idea that Europe will lose patience and force Ukraine to the negotiating table before the money runs out.

Joshua Myers432 said:Let me hit you with a counter-question: if Russia is broke and their economy is falling apart, why aren't they selling gas at massive premiums to fill up their coffers?

The Nuclear Bomb threats aren't about Sanctions. They're about military training, equipment transfers, and who knows what else being sent to the Ukrainian side. Look, we aren't officially at war with Russia, but we aren't exactly far from it either. Those threats are clearly just a reflection of Russian weakness. If they actually had the leverage to act, they would be acting instead of making empty threats.

The only real card Russia is playing is energy warfare. They have nothing else to offer against the West. We'll see if that's enough. It's still too early to call it, but cracks in European unity are already starting to show.

Because they are playing the long game, clearly; don't they realize that by cutting off the supply and driving prices through the roof, they intend to turn public opinion against the very existence of Sanctions?

Anthony Hill5 said:Because they are playing the long game, clearly; don't they realize that by cutting off the supply and driving prices through the roof, they intend to turn public opinion against the very existence of Sanctions?

Sure, but that strategy falls flat when you're dealing with an economy that's already on its knees, surviving almost entirely on raw material exports. ☕

Joshua Myers432 said:Sure, but that strategy falls flat when you're dealing with an economy that's already on its knees, surviving almost entirely on raw material exports. ☕

Of course it can... because people always forget that the common sense we use here in the West isn't the same kind of logic being used by the Russian leadership. I mean, if it were the same, they wouldn't have been stumbling around in Ukraine for over six months only to end up right where they are now...

Donna Harris11 said:The Sun just dropped this report about how sanctions are actually playing out in Russia compared to how things look here in the States:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/196983...anctions-food/

SANCS A LOT

Welcome to sanction-hit Russia, where prices are DOWN as Americans suffer from soaring inflation

Food costs are also coming down every month and Vladimir Putin’s people are partying as if there is no war.

six months on, while we are paying the price for the invasion with a crippling cost-of-living crisis, locals in Moscow are upbeat.

It is not surprising. Despite claims they would face a severe food shortage, shoppers in Walmart, Russia’s answer to Tesco, load their trolleys high with groceries half the price of ours.

That makes a lot of sense.

Welcome to a sanctioned Russia, where prices are actually dropping while Americans struggle through soaring inflation.

Food costs are actually dropping every single month now. It seems like Putin's inner circle is out celebrating as if there isn't even a war going on..

Six months later, we're still feeling the sting of this invasion through a massive cost-of-living crisis that’s hitting us hard. People living in Moscow seem to be in high spirits lately.

It doesn't really come as a shock. Even though people predicted massive food shortages, shoppers at Walmart are filling up their carts with groceries that cost about half of what we pay here in the States.

It’s quite something to see them partying like there isn't a war going on. ☕

For now, sanctions still don't include revoking visas for those Russian sympathizers and partisans who claim the war "doesn't affect them" yet would love to travel through Europe. Zelenskyy is actually bringing this up regarding the 8th package of sanctions.

It’s nice to see that the Muscovites are such optimists. They aren't being sent off as cannon fodder like those poor souls from the various backwater regions of Russia just yet.

Joshua Myers432 said:Sure, but that strategy falls flat when you're dealing with an economy that's already on its knees, surviving almost entirely on raw material exports. ☕

It probably hasn't brought them to their knees just yet, but even if it has, the entire Russian strategy boils down to exactly what was mentioned—they’re essentially playing a massive game of chicken, betting everything on the hope that the European Union will buckle under the pressure of a gas shortage and eventually decide to scrap those sanctions altogether.
That whole gas narrative—you know, that idea of freezing the pants off everyone in the European Union—is something anyone who’s been tracking this specific PDF since 2014 will recognize immediately.

Brenda Murphy3 said:Of course it can... because people always forget that the common sense we use here in the West isn't the same kind of logic being used by the Russian leadership. I mean, if it were the same, they wouldn't have been stumbling around in Ukraine for over six months only to end up right where they are now...

True, but the reverse holds weight too. They think the "common sense" logic they employ (the East) is fundamentally different from what Western nations use.

I still maintain they hold the upper hand here; in scenarios like this, dictatorial regimes always have an advantage over "democracy," if you can even call our system that.

Do you honestly think another Putin would just sit back and let 70,000 people protest in Moscow, like they might in Prague? Realistically, if 70,000 gathered in Prague, it would be closer to 400,000 in Moscow!

Anthony Hill5 said:Because they are playing the long game, clearly; don't they realize that by cutting off the supply and driving prices through the roof, they intend to turn public opinion against the very existence of Sanctions?

It's a risky strategy. For every goal they hit, they might just trigger more unity and antagonism on the other side—especially when you factor in all that Biden-Trump rambling from Medvedev.

+ A massive issue is that key players (USA, UK, Poland) aren't showing any signs of shifting their stance, and we don't really have much leverage to pressure them.

Sure, destabilizing the EU would help Russia's economy, but it probably wouldn't actually weaken support for Ukraine or act as the decisive "game changer" everyone hopes for.

I'm not entirely sold on this optimistic, partisan mood currently brewing in Moscow. 😁

Joshua Myers432 said:True, but the reverse holds weight too. They think the "common sense" logic they employ (the East) is fundamentally different from what Western nations use.

I still maintain they hold the upper hand here; in scenarios like this, dictatorial regimes always have an advantage over "democracy," if you can even call our system that.

Do you honestly think another Putin would just sit back and let 70,000 people protest in Moscow, like they might in Prague? Realistically, if 70,000 gathered in Prague, it would be closer to 400,000 in Moscow!

Time will tell, but sure, this dictator might be winning in the short term—he isn't in the long run. That's why we can't back off on sanctions just because we're scared of a recession, especially since that'll drag China into the slump too. Long-term, a dictator just can't beat a democratic society—it's never happened.

Joshua Myers432 said:Let me hit you with a counter-question: if Russia is broke and their economy is falling apart, why aren't they selling gas at massive premiums to fill up their coffers?

The Nuclear Bomb threats aren't about Sanctions. They're about military training, equipment transfers, and who knows what else being sent to the Ukrainian side. Look, we aren't officially at war with Russia, but we aren't exactly far from it either. Those threats are clearly just a reflection of Russian weakness. If they actually had the leverage to act, they would be acting instead of making empty threats.

The only real card Russia is playing is energy warfare. They have nothing else to offer against the West. We'll see if that's enough. It's still too early to call it, but cracks in European unity are already starting to show.

Russia has played all its cards on destabilizing the European Union's energy sector over the next six months. If that doesn't work—and it won't—they’re finished anyway. They have nothing left to lose. There's no way for them to ever recover from the isolation imposed by the West, and even the pivot toward Asia won't be a quick fix; that shift will take decades, assuming most Russians even stick with it. Most Russians still view themselves as Europeans rather than Asians, so there's a fundamental reluctance to fully embrace an Asian identity. You can't truly become an Asian power when the bulk of your population resides in Europe. Tens of millions of people aren't just going to pack up and move from the European side of Russia to Siberia...