Sanctions on Russia

Chris Williams said:I said oil and Gas ... not just Gas. As for oil

India and China now account for over half of All Russia's seaborne oil exports.

Russia is now China's biggest supplier of oil , taking over fra Saud Arabia in 2022.

in March this year , Combined oil imports by China and India fra Russia overtook those fra The 27 EU member states

Regarding Gas, there has been a major announcement regarding increased deliveries to China through Sila Sibir 1, which is expected to begin by mid-December this year; additionally, the construction of the new Sila Sibir 2 pipeline has been agreed upon, which will take some time, but it seems quite clear that China is investing heavily and remains interested.

I suppose anyone would be interested in access to an unlimited supply of Gas from next door.

China’s Russian gas imports jump in first 8 months, while LNG exports hit record levels amid supply diversions
China’s natural gas imports from Russia via pipeline almost tripled in the first eight months to US$2.39 billion

Yeah, you said that. Gas.You’ve completely missed the mark here. None of the gas that the European Union was importing from Russia has been rerouted to China or India. Why on earth are you bringing up gas if you're only talking about oil?

hiddeneagle98 said:That is pure, unadulterated disinformation. They’ve bumped their gas exports to China by 28%, and the revenue has tripled—likely because prices have spiked.

There isn't anything groundbreaking happening with Russian gas sales; they just boosted the output from those Siberian fields that were already totally cut off from the EU anyway, and that's basically it.
The main Russian fields that feed Europe aren't connected to China, so you can't just flip a switch and reroute the flow.
Sure, you could try shipping it, but you don't have nearly enough capacity to handle all that excess volume—there aren't enough tankers or offshore platforms in existence to unload it all to buyers. That's why they end up flaring it. Honestly, nothing much changes unless Putin decides to let the gas flow back to Europe.

Oil finds buyers a bit more easily, I suppose... but even if the EU blocks certain pipelines, it's a sunk cost at this point. It's much easier and more profitable to move it through the routes they still control.

Russia only has two LNG liquefaction terminals: Sakhalin and Yamal.

I honestly went into this thinking that once McDonald's pulled out of Russia, there would be some kind of trickle-down effect on the military supply chain—maybe fewer weapons flying around the skies over Ukraine causing all that massive destruction. But looking back, it’s been six months since that first major wave of sanctions hit, and it feels like we aren't seeing the impact we expected. Instead, Ukrainians are still stuck having to blow up bridges across Russia because it’s becoming painfully obvious that these sanctions just aren't hitting hard enough. ☕

Nathan Evans78 said:I honestly went into this thinking that once McDonald's pulled out of Russia, there would be some kind of trickle-down effect on the military supply chain—maybe fewer weapons flying around the skies over Ukraine causing all that massive destruction. But looking back, it’s been six months since that first major wave of sanctions hit, and it feels like we aren't seeing the impact we expected. Instead, Ukrainians are still stuck having to blow up bridges across Russia because it’s becoming painfully obvious that these sanctions just aren't hitting hard enough. ☕

The Russians are basically just emptying out their stockpiles of outdated Soviet-era junk, which, much like the logic used by your average Putin supporter, tends to fly off in every direction once you pull the trigger. 🤦

It doesn't really matter, though. Once Russia eventually gets carved up into occupation zones, at least the new administration will have plenty of empty warehouse space to store copies of Mein Kampf and The Sims 3—which will probably become mandatory reading and gaming for every Russian citizen.

Sanctions aren't doing a damn thing; the little guy just brings them up out of pure boredom every time he speaks, and at the last briefing, he was practically hawking natural gas to Europe like some old lady at a roadside farmers market.

darkwalker1 said:The Russians are basically just emptying out their stockpiles of outdated Soviet-era junk, which, much like the logic used by your average Putin supporter, tends to fly off in every direction once you pull the trigger. 🤦

It doesn't really matter, though. Once Russia eventually gets carved up into occupation zones, at least the new administration will have plenty of empty warehouse space to store copies of Mein Kampf and The Sims 3—which will probably become mandatory reading and gaming for every Russian citizen.

Yeah, flying off in every direction—and "accidentally" hitting electrical grids, too. That’s why Ukrainians end up having to pull streetcars with tractors. Honestly, back when this thread was still on page 20, I was convinced the Russians would start launching rocks from catapults next. And that was just before autumn kicked in. 🤣

Come on, let’s give the sanctions another six months to actually work. Maybe then they’ll start bombing people with diamonds, since we haven't figured out how to sanction those yet. ☕

Michael Ortiz68 said:Sanctions aren't doing a damn thing; the little guy just brings them up out of pure boredom every time he speaks, and at the last briefing, he was practically hawking natural gas to Europe like some old lady at a roadside farmers market.

I don't know about you all, but I’d much rather watch Panzerhaubicas being deployed on the front lines than listen to any more of that gnome's rhetoric. Honestly, why don't we just blow up every bit of domestic energy infrastructure connecting us to Russia? Just for the fun of it, so we can sit back and tune in for the next round of "exciting" announcements from our favorite little gnome.

Nathan Evans78 said:Yeah, flying off in every direction—and "accidentally" hitting electrical grids, too. That’s why Ukrainians end up having to pull streetcars with tractors. Honestly, back when this thread was still on page 20, I was convinced the Russians would start launching rocks from catapults next. And that was just before autumn kicked in. 🤣

Come on, let’s give the sanctions another six months to actually work. Maybe then they’ll start bombing people with diamonds, since we haven't figured out how to sanction those yet. ☕

Those Ukrainian tractors proved themselves to be top-tier towing machines when they were busy hauling Russian tanks, so I don't see a more perfect solution for moving trams.

As for lifting the sanctions? I couldn't agree more. 👍

Michael Ortiz68 said:Sanctions aren't doing a damn thing; the little guy just brings them up out of pure boredom every time he speaks, and at the last briefing, he was practically hawking natural gas to Europe like some old lady at a roadside farmers market.

Actually, they do work, considering Russian gas exports to the EU have completely dried up—they didn't just magically pivot to Asia overnight—and now they're selling their oil at a 20% discount compared to everyone else on the planet.

Michael Ortiz68 said:Sanctions aren't doing a damn thing; the little guy just brings them up out of pure boredom every time he speaks, and at the last briefing, he was practically hawking natural gas to Europe like some old lady at a roadside farmers market.

They don't give a damn about sanctions; they just whine every single day about reopening pipelines because they can't stand watching Europeans freeze.🙏

The fact that they're shipping gas to India and China via non-existent pipelines, that they rely on energy exports to the EU to stay afloat, and that their peak industrial achievement is slapping a cage on a T-62 (which they call "modernization" over there) doesn't change reality one bit.

Instead, let's just look at the exchange rates and see who's actually winning.*

*Not that being unable to spend the ruble anywhere else really matters.

Nathan Evans78 said:I honestly went into this thinking that once McDonald's pulled out of Russia, there would be some kind of trickle-down effect on the military supply chain—maybe fewer weapons flying around the skies over Ukraine causing all that massive destruction. But looking back, it’s been six months since that first major wave of sanctions hit, and it feels like we aren't seeing the impact we expected. Instead, Ukrainians are still stuck having to blow up bridges across Russia because it’s becoming painfully obvious that these sanctions just aren't hitting hard enough. ☕

This post earns the award for complete inconsistency "Zlatan vacuum".

Nathan Evans78 said:I honestly went into this thinking that once McDonald's pulled out of Russia, there would be some kind of trickle-down effect on the military supply chain—maybe fewer weapons flying around the skies over Ukraine causing all that massive destruction. But looking back, it’s been six months since that first major wave of sanctions hit, and it feels like we aren't seeing the impact we expected. Instead, Ukrainians are still stuck having to blow up bridges across Russia because it’s becoming painfully obvious that these sanctions just aren't hitting hard enough. ☕

Meanwhile, the Russians are retaliating by targeting tourist bridges in Kyiv with high-precision weaponry, yet they can't even manage to cause any damage to the bridge with the glass floor.

Nathan Evans78 said:I don't know about you all, but I’d much rather watch Panzerhaubicas being deployed on the front lines than listen to any more of that gnome's rhetoric. Honestly, why don't we just blow up every bit of domestic energy infrastructure connecting us to Russia? Just for the fun of it, so we can sit back and tune in for the next round of "exciting" announcements from our favorite little gnome.

Every single post is more nonsensical than the last. When you decide to actually return to studying currencies and exchange rates, maybe then you'll have an economic clue.🙏?

The gnome can't seem to handle the fact that his ex moved on. Now he's trying to slide back in, only this time he's using Turkey as a middleman lol

analogbear5 said:Welcome back, folks—looks like those bills have finally arrived again to remind us why we're here. Since we're at it, let's do a quick refresher on the big takeaways from the start of this thread.

Also, might as well grab a drink and celebrate hitting page 400.

Let's get to it. 🙂

Yeah, we're finally cutting ties with cheap fuel and that old dependency, but hey, there’s always someone ready to complain, right?

No need to sweat a recession or a cold snap—we're finally clean enough that even a little tea party under a tent might make us break a sweat. Experts are saying winter will be mild, unless it gets harsh. Time to pop some champagne, not just crack a beer.

Both Nissan and Danone are making their final exits from Russia.

The cost of this retreat will be upwards of $600 million for Nissan and a staggering $1 billion for Danone.

Nissan, the Japanese automaker, announced its “imminent exit” from Russia by approving the sale of its operations in the country to NAMI, a Russian state-backed entity, for a nominal price. The transaction would result in a financial hit to Nissan of well over $600 million, although it includes the option to buy back the Russian operations within six years.

Danone said it had begun to transfer control of its dairy business in Russia, which accounts for 5 percent of the French company's sales, in a move that it described as “the best option to ensure long-term local business continuity, for its employees, consumers and partners.” The disposal would result in a write-off of up to 1 billion euros ($970 million), Danone said.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10...smid=url-share

Chris Williams said:I suppose sanctions won't lead to any meaningful shifts, not even on an economic level. Out of nearly 200 nations globally, only about 45 have signed on to sanction Russia. That leaves roughly 150 countries that haven't. It suggests that Russia still has plenty of places to export its oil, gas, precious metals, food, and other resources.

We’ll see the actual impact of these sanctions quite soon, probably within weeks. Of those 45 countries, 27 are part of the European Union, which includes small players like us here in America. This winter, we might witness how these sanctions end up crippling economies, manufacturing, and industry, essentially dragging everyone back a century—unless, of course, all parties decide to sit down at the negotiating table.

I’ve heard reports coming out of Germany about people scavenging fallen branches from forests just to stay warm, yet the government forbids it, as if they can't be trusted touching state-owned timber.

A government that fails to protect its own citizens is merely providing a hollow gesture toward protecting Ukraine. It all seems like games played by the military-industrial-banking complex in the USA, where we are all—including those ineffective politicians in the EU—just puppets dancing to their tune. And yes, that includes poor Ukraine as well.

If you ask me, sanctions are producing results, but it isn't Russia feeling the sting—it's us in the EU. So, I guess you should consider who the real enemy actually is....

What percentage of the global economy do those 150 non-sanctioning countries actually represent?

Richard Wilson4 said:What percentage of the global economy do those 150 non-sanctioning countries actually represent?

More importantly though, I guess... how much economic exchange and actual leverage do they really have with Russia?

Chris Williams said:Look, casualtiger2, they aren't going to buckle. The Russians have just redirected the oil and gas that the European Union isn't buying toward India and China. It's the same with grain and those essential rare metals everyone needs. The European Union has about 477 million people, whereas India and China alone represent over 2 billion. Then you have the other 148 nations—including Turkey, Israel, Mexico, all of Africa, Asia, and Latin America—none of whom have imposed sanctions.

The USA has to maintain the petrodollar because there’s no other backing for the dollar, so they ensure things stay this way by fueling conflict rather than pursuing negotiation, which any rational actor would do instead of throwing gasoline on the fire.

The real objective seems to be for the USA to weaken the European Union, specifically Germany, while exhausting Russia, all while keeping China as the ultimate target... and they're managing the whole thing through maneuvering without having to fire a single shot so far.

Unless everyone else kneels, they'll have to act this way just to maintain their status and avoid bankruptcy.

So, if you look closely at who actually has horns and hooves... you might start to see who the real Satan is in this situation.

United States 19,687,287 20.3 %
European Union 18,300 000 19.8
Japan 4,012,877 4.1 %
South Korea 2,605,440 2.7 %
Canada 2,486,301 2.6 %
UK 1,583,896 1.6 %
Singapore 1,357,000 1.4 %
Australia 1,114,645 1.1 %

53.3 %
+ 14.5 %

Saudi Arabia 3,302,000 3.4 %
Russia 3,631,287 3.7 %
Mexico 2,052,607 2.1 %
Iran 1,803,999 1.9 %
United Arab Emirates 896,000 0.9 %
Venezuela 598,000 0.6 %
Algeria 429,000 0.4 %
Nigeria 428,000 0.4 %
Kuwait 359,000 0.4 %
Kazakhstan 325,000 0.3 %
Libya 223,000 0.2 %
Qatar 172,000 0.2 %

They can't sell to 67.8% of them.
+ as for the remaining 32.2%, most of them have their own production or established suppliers for at least 3/4 of their needs.
See how much the market has actually shrunk? Selling goods isn't nearly as easy as some people seem to think.

So, who’s actually left to buy all that Russian crude?
China is pulling in about 7.5 million barrels a day. That means they might pick up maybe 1.5 to 2 million from the Russians at most—though that’s up from just 1 million previously. Then you’ve got India importing 4.4 million barrels, and they might take on maybe 1 million from them too.
Meanwhile, Russia is pumping out 5 million barrels a day. Good luck finding enough buyers for that remaining 3 million barrels every single day.