Sanctions on Russia

George Robinson43 said:How on earth does that relate to anything?
An OPEC production cut translates directly into a supply shortage on the global market.

Someone put it perfectly: when Americans arrive in Africa, they just point a finger and make threats. But when the Chinese show up, they build a bridge or a hospital.

Fantastic. Now EU ships in the Mediterranean know exactly where to direct Africans.

I am speaking specifically about relations with China and those unprovoked attempts to dismantle their high-tech economic sectors(I'm late to the party on this one, but I'm still in maximum damage mode).

No one can touch Chinese high-tech unless the Party gives the order!
They can develop everything entirely independently. Or can they? How does that work?

Wait, wait—Chinese high-tech isn't even capable of developing its own aircraft. Oh shiiiit.
Is it all just mass-producing chips?

The rest of the independent West, we have been part of that for some time now, including us.,

And who might you be? A group of independent Russophiles?

The Americans are out there making noise and throwing threats around—meanwhile, China, who's also a massive buyer, hasn't said a single word.
Are we really going to pretend there’s no difference in how these two superpowers handle diplomacy? — It's a bit of a stretch, honestly.

Nobody can touch Chinese high-tech unless the Party gives the green light—period.
They can build it entirely on their own—or maybe they can't. It’s one of those contradictions that just doesn't add up, right?

Hold on—so all this "high-tech" talk from China is a joke if they can't even build their own damn planes? Unbelievable.
Is it just chip manufacturing now?

Glad you decided to pick a side right out of the gate. 👍
China’s pumping out everything these days—it's hard not to respect their tech climb, even if I won't get into the whole political freedom mess (that's a whole different conversation). Honestly, they're better off this way than having some corrupt bureaucracy running the show and leaving the country stuck in the mud forever.

Some things just take time—consistent, long-term development is a grind—which is why they haven't mastered everything yet. But where they can move fast and run things in parallel? Americans and everyone else have definitely found a way to get ahead.
Lately, they've been cracking high-precision CNC machines and RF chips for mobile tech—it’s just one thing after another.

It all tracks—there's some heavy scientific weight behind it, too—especially if you actually bother to dig into the stats on published papers and citation counts.
So, they’re looking at building a Higgs factory—basically the successor to the LHC—in about ten years. It looks like the US is planning to go solo on this one, keeping the keys to themselves while letting Europe, Japan, and everyone else just watch from the sidelines. Honestly, though, the sheer amount of brainpower that kind of place would attract? It's basically an infinite knowledge incubator.

Who even are you people? Just some independent Russophiles?

🤦

wiredseal7 said:The Americans are out there making noise and throwing threats around—meanwhile, China, who's also a massive buyer, hasn't said a single word.
Are we really going to pretend there’s no difference in how these two superpowers handle diplomacy? — It's a bit of a stretch, honestly.

Nobody can touch Chinese high-tech unless the Party gives the green light—period.
They can build it entirely on their own—or maybe they can't. It’s one of those contradictions that just doesn't add up, right?

Hold on—so all this "high-tech" talk from China is a joke if they can't even build their own damn planes? Unbelievable.
Is it just chip manufacturing now?

Glad you decided to pick a side right out of the gate. 👍
China’s pumping out everything these days—it's hard not to respect their tech climb, even if I won't get into the whole political freedom mess (that's a whole different conversation). Honestly, they're better off this way than having some corrupt bureaucracy running the show and leaving the country stuck in the mud forever.

Some things just take time—consistent, long-term development is a grind—which is why they haven't mastered everything yet. But where they can move fast and run things in parallel? Americans and everyone else have definitely found a way to get ahead.
Lately, they've been cracking high-precision CNC machines and RF chips for mobile tech—it’s just one thing after another.

It all tracks—there's some heavy scientific weight behind it, too—especially if you actually bother to dig into the stats on published papers and citation counts.
So, they’re looking at building a Higgs factory—basically the successor to the LHC—in about ten years. It looks like the US is planning to go solo on this one, keeping the keys to themselves while letting Europe, Japan, and everyone else just watch from the sidelines. Honestly, though, the sheer amount of brainpower that kind of place would attract? It's basically an infinite knowledge incubator.

Who even are you people? Just some independent Russophiles?

🤦

And?
What kind of diplomatic approach? The USA simply stated they are withdrawing their missile shield from Saudi Arabia if production levels drop. Do sovereign nations not have the right to withdraw their technology and personnel from countries that are no longer considered "friendly"?
No one is forbidding Arabs absolute independence in determining their own production levels. This is about the USA deciding they will no longer expend their resources just to ensure independent Arabs remain safe from independent Iranian missiles and drones.

Do you honestly believe China would act differently if their own missile shield were at stake? Or even better, do you think China would behave differently if they were the ones who found oil for those desert dwellers back in the day and basically said, "Here is your oil, enjoy Saudi Aramco, but don't forget who pulled you off those camels?"

OK, I'm glad you took a side immediately.
China is already producing just about everything. A smart person can admire their technological ascent—not to get too deep into political freedoms (that's a whole different conversation). It actually turned out better for them this way than having some corrupt mess running the show and leaving the nation stuck in the dark ages of development.

That’s exactly what you wrote—everything.
But damn, they can't even build an airplane on their own.

Some things simply require time—continuous, long-term development—which is why they aren't caught up in everything yet. However, in areas where rapid, parallel progress is possible, the Americans and others have certainly held their own.
Recently, for instance, they've made huge strides in high-precision CNC machines, RF chips for mobile communications, and so on.
All of this is backed by incredibly serious scientific foundations; just look at the statistics on research papers and citations.
For example, they will be building a Higgs factory in about 10 years to succeed the LHC. That is something the Americans will clearly dominate, while Europe, Japan, and others will be welcome guests. And what an incredible incubator for knowledge that will be...

Exactly.
What would we be without Chinese expertise? We'd still be living in the Middle Ages.

As for the "facepalm," I have no idea what version of an "independent West" you are living in.
I live in a country that is part of the EU and NATO, which means we certainly aren't making decisions in a vacuum and we definitely pick sides. Unfortunately for you, our side is the opposite of your "free world" composed of unified Russia, communist parties, progressives, and similar elements of freedom.

velvetcanyon20 said:Now, this is where the mental gymnastics get really intense... the idea that you impose sanctions on a country and somehow end up making them wealthier.
🤦
You stop sending them billions of dollars every month for gas, so they just flare it off instead, yet somehow they end up with more cash in hand. It's pure magic...
The gas burns, the dollars don't arrive, and yet they just keep getting richer... 🤔

I don't think you quite grasp the situation. Sanctions on Russian oil for this year haven't actually kicked in yet; they've just been announced. As for direct sanctions on Russian gas? They don't even exist. What happened was the Russians cut back on supplies, which triggered a total panic on the spot market and sent prices through the roof.
Is your whole philosophy just "we have sanctions, end of story, move on"? You're acting like there's no difference in how they actually work. A sanction is a sanction, right?
Yeah, sure... whatever you say.

rustywalker82 said:I don't think you quite grasp the situation. Sanctions on Russian oil for this year haven't actually kicked in yet; they've just been announced. As for direct sanctions on Russian gas? They don't even exist. What happened was the Russians cut back on supplies, which triggered a total panic on the spot market and sent prices through the roof.
Is your whole philosophy just "we have sanctions, end of story, move on"? You're acting like there's no difference in how they actually work. A sanction is a sanction, right?
Yeah, sure... whatever you say.

The thing is, Russia doesn't really sell gas on the SPOT market; they mostly deal through those two-year contracts. The stuff hitting the spot market is usually just some tiny, insignificant amount of gas.

Meanwhile, Urals oil is trading at a 20% discount compared to Brent.

Gazprom:
Lower gas export volumes have been completely offset by rising export prices

Regarding oil, it’s exactly like I told you guys before. This year, basically, OPEC was handed a massive gift—they got a whole global missile defense system for free, and not just for Ukraine.
It’s honestly hilarious. You announce sanctions on all the stuff you actually need, then turn around and scramble to buy that exact same stuff anyway, acting all surprised when the cartel decides to rip you off.

So you actually buy what those Russian sources are peddling, even though they've been caught lying 280,000 times already?

Are you seriously suggesting that ExxonMobil is lying about their revenue? Like, is the record-breaking trade deficit in the US also fake news? Is that massive half-trillion Euro year-over-year slide just made up too? Or maybe the electricity prices we’re seeing across the US this year are just a total lie?
Nah, they aren't...

rustywalker82 said:Are you seriously suggesting that ExxonMobil is lying about their revenue? Like, is the record-breaking trade deficit in the US also fake news? Is that massive half-trillion Euro year-over-year slide just made up too? Or maybe the electricity prices we’re seeing across the US this year are just a total lie?
Nah, they aren't...

So, did exports actually drop or go up?

Imports spiked right after those pandemic restrictions lifted—funny how that works.

EU Imports:


EU Exports:

Someone mentioned you could swap rubles for Euros over in Cyprus,
and the rate was sitting around 202 rubles to the Euro.

rustywalker82 said:I don't think you quite grasp the situation. Sanctions on Russian oil for this year haven't actually kicked in yet; they've just been announced. As for direct sanctions on Russian gas? They don't even exist. What happened was the Russians cut back on supplies, which triggered a total panic on the spot market and sent prices through the roof.
Is your whole philosophy just "we have sanctions, end of story, move on"? You're acting like there's no difference in how they actually work. A sanction is a sanction, right?
Yeah, sure... whatever you say.

That is some pretty intense mental gymnastics right there.
Let’s look at a few facts, and you can just answer me with a yes or no.

The war is a factor that destabilizes markets and prices? Yes or no.
Are earnings actually the same compared to when? Back during the pandemic year?
Sales volume dropped by 30-35% following the introduction of sanctions—that is an objective fact, no way around it.

So you have a drop in volume, yet you're seeing the same dollar amount as during the pandemic.
Was the pandemic year one of record growth or record decline?

There is no spot market, there is no functioning market, there isn't even a pipeline physically capable of moving gas from point A to point B anymore (you could try moving it via a few trucks, I suppose)...

If earnings are, say, 300 units despite the sanctions while volume has fallen by 35%, that implies that without those sanctions, earnings would have been 405 units. 300 billion plus 35%...

A physical drop in volume and goods of 35% means 35% less stuff, which translates directly to 35% less revenue. That is just physical reality.
Then you have to add in the number of shuttered businesses and lost jobs, not to mention 20% inflation.

Therefore, focusing solely on the revenue figure is selective and serves a specific Narrative.

(Comparing this to the Corona crisis)....
Last year I made $33, and this year I made 103 dollars. See? I'm doing better. If we use that kind of logic for propaganda, then sure, things are looking great. You're absolutely crushing it.
But we conveniently ignore the fact that your wife and half your neighbors lost their jobs, that inflation is up 20%, and that your neighbor 62 miles is still making $100 while you're working part-time... 🤦

The Narrative being pushed is that all Europeans are just naive little maids who will eventually conclude that they should take to the streets to demand the lifting of sanctions—simply because they see that everything is fine, or even better, that they're making more money.

But it goes deeper than that. You have a country of 40 million people living without indoor plumbing, yet they supposedly have higher wages than Rhode Island.
And that's according to official data from a nation that has been fighting an information, cyber, and propaganda war for the last ten years, and is now facing a conventional one. 🤦

rustywalker82 said:Are you seriously suggesting that ExxonMobil is lying about their revenue? Like, is the record-breaking trade deficit in the US also fake news? Is that massive half-trillion Euro year-over-year slide just made up too? Or maybe the electricity prices we’re seeing across the US this year are just a total lie?
Nah, they aren't...

Look, why don't you just give me a specific list of every single data point the Russian statistics bureau stopped releasing from the moment those sanctions hit until now. Thanks.

velvetcanyon20 said:That is some pretty intense mental gymnastics right there.
Let’s look at a few facts, and you can just answer me with a yes or no.

The war is a factor that destabilizes markets and prices? Yes or no.
Are earnings actually the same compared to when? Back during the pandemic year?
Sales volume dropped by 30-35% following the introduction of sanctions—that is an objective fact, no way around it.

So you have a drop in volume, yet you're seeing the same dollar amount as during the pandemic.
Was the pandemic year one of record growth or record decline?

There is no spot market, there is no functioning market, there isn't even a pipeline physically capable of moving gas from point A to point B anymore (you could try moving it via a few trucks, I suppose)...

If earnings are, say, 300 units despite the sanctions while volume has fallen by 35%, that implies that without those sanctions, earnings would have been 405 units. 300 billion plus 35%...

A physical drop in volume and goods of 35% means 35% less stuff, which translates directly to 35% less revenue. That is just physical reality.
Then you have to add in the number of shuttered businesses and lost jobs, not to mention 20% inflation.

Therefore, focusing solely on the revenue figure is selective and serves a specific Narrative.

(Comparing this to the Corona crisis)....
Last year I made $33, and this year I made 103 dollars. See? I'm doing better. If we use that kind of logic for propaganda, then sure, things are looking great. You're absolutely crushing it.
But we conveniently ignore the fact that your wife and half your neighbors lost their jobs, that inflation is up 20%, and that your neighbor 62 miles is still making $100 while you're working part-time... 🤦

The Narrative being pushed is that all Europeans are just naive little maids who will eventually conclude that they should take to the streets to demand the lifting of sanctions—simply because they see that everything is fine, or even better, that they're making more money.

But it goes deeper than that. You have a country of 40 million people living without indoor plumbing, yet they supposedly have higher wages than Rhode Island.
And that's according to official data from a nation that has been fighting an information, cyber, and propaganda war for the last ten years, and is now facing a conventional one. 🤦

Do me a favor and let the folks over at OPEC know that their entire existence is becoming obsolete...
They seem to be under the delusion that market prices are formed solely by the laws of supply and demand, and that they can just tinker with production levels once a month to control things...

But hey, if you go and explain to them that they could simply release 35% more product into the market and automatically earn 35% more money, they might actually reward you for saving them from all those tedious monthly meetings and recalculations...
Who knows, maybe you'd even snag a Nobel Prize in Economics for such a groundbreaking discovery...

analogbear5 said:So, did exports actually drop or go up?

Imports spiked right after those pandemic restrictions lifted—funny how that works.

EU Imports:


EU Exports:

Trade balances for China (who isn't dealing with energy sanctions) vs. the Eurozone (which just hit a record-breaking deficit):
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.ne...12&d1=20171019
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.ne...12&d1=20171019

China


Eurozone

rustywalker82 said:Trade balances for China (who isn't dealing with energy sanctions) vs. the Eurozone (which just hit a record-breaking deficit):
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.ne...12&d1=20171019
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.ne...12&d1=20171019

China


Eurozone

So what’s the point? Sanctions on the EU? Sanctions on China? Or sanctions on Russia?
I don't know, maybe I got my wires crossed...

I also dropped the image links in there, so you don't need to bother quoting any pictures.

Timothy Kim9 said:Someone mentioned you could swap rubles for Euros over in Cyprus,
and the rate was sitting around 202 rubles to the Euro.

I heard from a guy reading this PDF that Iranians supposedly received bags of beans in exchange for these drones they’re flying over Kyiv. ☕

The USA is gearing up to announce more sanctions against Iran—it’s like some heavy-duty reality TV drama. I mean, Iran is under such intense sanctions that they shouldn't even be able to import the components needed to build a drone like this, yet somehow, they still find a way to ship them straight to the battlefield. 🤦

Christian Torres3 said:So what’s the point? Sanctions on the EU? Sanctions on China? Or sanctions on Russia?
I don't know, maybe I got my wires crossed...

The deficit in the Eurozone is really just the boomerang effect of those Russian sanctions.

George Robinson43 said:And?
What kind of diplomatic approach? The USA simply stated they are withdrawing their missile shield from Saudi Arabia if production levels drop. Do sovereign nations not have the right to withdraw their technology and personnel from countries that are no longer considered "friendly"?
No one is forbidding Arabs absolute independence in determining their own production levels. This is about the USA deciding they will no longer expend their resources just to ensure independent Arabs remain safe from independent Iranian missiles and drones.

Do you honestly believe China would act differently if their own missile shield were at stake? Or even better, do you think China would behave differently if they were the ones who found oil for those desert dwellers back in the day and basically said, "Here is your oil, enjoy Saudi Aramco, but don't forget who pulled you off those camels?"

OK, I'm glad you took a side immediately.
China is already producing just about everything. A smart person can admire their technological ascent—not to get too deep into political freedoms (that's a whole different conversation). It actually turned out better for them this way than having some corrupt mess running the show and leaving the nation stuck in the dark ages of development.

That’s exactly what you wrote—everything.
But damn, they can't even build an airplane on their own.

Some things simply require time—continuous, long-term development—which is why they aren't caught up in everything yet. However, in areas where rapid, parallel progress is possible, the Americans and others have certainly held their own.
Recently, for instance, they've made huge strides in high-precision CNC machines, RF chips for mobile communications, and so on.
All of this is backed by incredibly serious scientific foundations; just look at the statistics on research papers and citations.
For example, they will be building a Higgs factory in about 10 years to succeed the LHC. That is something the Americans will clearly dominate, while Europe, Japan, and others will be welcome guests. And what an incredible incubator for knowledge that will be...

Exactly.
What would we be without Chinese expertise? We'd still be living in the Middle Ages.

As for the "facepalm," I have no idea what version of an "independent West" you are living in.
I live in a country that is part of the EU and NATO, which means we certainly aren't making decisions in a vacuum and we definitely pick sides. Unfortunately for you, our side is the opposite of your "free world" composed of unified Russia, communist parties, progressives, and similar elements of freedom.

Where'd you hear that?
The Boeing 737—just about ready to hit the skies:
The certification process for the Boeing 737—or whatever they’re calling their latest attempt to play catch-up—is looking like a massive uphill battle. It's not just about passing some tests; it's about navigating a regulatory maze that feels more like a political minefield than actual safety checks. Honestly, trying to get these planes cleared for takeoff feels a lot like trying to get a permit for a backyard pool in Los Angeles—endless paperwork, endless scrutiny, and everyone watching your every move just waiting for you to slip up.

Then there's that whole Russia-China joint venture with the C929—just another mess in the making.
Looks like the competition is finally heating up—Boeing 737 isn't going to be the only player left in the sky forever. It’s just a matter of how much pressure the industry can take before things shift.

Sure, it says here that China might actually favor Western companies over Russian ones—but let's be real, it’s probably just those sanctions doing the heavy lifting—though given how hostile the US has been acting lately, maybe they'll actually change their minds.

wiredseal7 said:The deficit in the Eurozone is really just the boomerang effect of those Russian sanctions.

Where'd you hear that?
The Boeing 737—just about ready to hit the skies:
The certification process for the Boeing 737—or whatever they’re calling their latest attempt to play catch-up—is looking like a massive uphill battle. It's not just about passing some tests; it's about navigating a regulatory maze that feels more like a political minefield than actual safety checks. Honestly, trying to get these planes cleared for takeoff feels a lot like trying to get a permit for a backyard pool in Los Angeles—endless paperwork, endless scrutiny, and everyone watching your every move just waiting for you to slip up.

Then there's that whole Russia-China joint venture with the C929—just another mess in the making.
Looks like the competition is finally heating up—Boeing 737 isn't going to be the only player left in the sky forever. It’s just a matter of how much pressure the industry can take before things shift.

Sure, it says here that China might actually favor Western companies over Russian ones—but let's be real, it’s probably just those sanctions doing the heavy lifting—though given how hostile the US has been acting lately, maybe they'll actually change their minds.

For crying out loud. Seriously, how many times are we going to see this kind of unprecedented nonsense posted here? 😁
Russia is completely irrelevant to China when you compare them to the West. Period. I mean, China's entire growth engine depends exclusively on the West—it all comes down to how greedy we are and how much we spend.
Basically, China doesn't have a choice in the matter... unless, of course, they want to face a total economic collapse.
What you and a few others are typing is such pure sci-fi, and honestly, such a banal, childish way to look at things, that it's hard to even know how to respond.

wiredseal7 said:The deficit in the Eurozone is really just the boomerang effect of those Russian sanctions.

Where'd you hear that?
The Boeing 737—just about ready to hit the skies:
The certification process for the Boeing 737—or whatever they’re calling their latest attempt to play catch-up—is looking like a massive uphill battle. It's not just about passing some tests; it's about navigating a regulatory maze that feels more like a political minefield than actual safety checks. Honestly, trying to get these planes cleared for takeoff feels a lot like trying to get a permit for a backyard pool in Los Angeles—endless paperwork, endless scrutiny, and everyone watching your every move just waiting for you to slip up.

Then there's that whole Russia-China joint venture with the C929—just another mess in the making.
Looks like the competition is finally heating up—Boeing 737 isn't going to be the only player left in the sky forever. It’s just a matter of how much pressure the industry can take before things shift.

Sure, it says here that China might actually favor Western companies over Russian ones—but let's be real, it’s probably just those sanctions doing the heavy lifting—though given how hostile the US has been acting lately, maybe they'll actually change their minds.

And that is precisely why the Chinese economy is flourishing.

China's economy is 'in deep trouble' as Xi heads for next decade in power

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/14/econo...hnk/index.html

How fortunate it is that they didn't impose those same sanctions on Russia.

Where on earth did you hear that?
The Boeing 737 equivalent, just certified for initial use:
https://samchui.com/2022/10/01/comac...certification/

And that supposed marvel is powered by Western engines, according to Wikipedia; the domestic Chinese engine is still stuck in the developmental phase.

Then there is the Russo-Chinese joint venture, the C929:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dipl...-passenger-jet

Is it not obvious that this joint venture stands as much chance of success as that Russian-Indian venture involving the Su-57?

Brenda Murphy3 said:For crying out loud. Seriously, how many times are we going to see this kind of unprecedented nonsense posted here? 😁
Russia is completely irrelevant to China when you compare them to the West. Period. I mean, China's entire growth engine depends exclusively on the West—it all comes down to how greedy we are and how much we spend.
Basically, China doesn't have a choice in the matter... unless, of course, they want to face a total economic collapse.
What you and a few others are typing is such pure sci-fi, and honestly, such a banal, childish way to look at things, that it's hard to even know how to respond.

The guy asked which plane the Chinese are building and got his answer—they’re even doing the engines themselves now.
Speaking of which, the Irkut MC-21 has had to strip out all Western components due to sanctions, making it a completely independent product from the Western aviation cartel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irkut_MC-21

If the US and China actually cut trade ties, both sides would crater—there’s just too much interdependence for decoupling to happen without causing a massive economic disaster for everyone involved. Sure, China might manage to pivot to other markets (their own, anyway), but American consumers would be left with nothing—it would be absolute chaos.

That’s why it won't happen; nobody can afford it—unless we're talking about actual war—and if that's the case, then this mythical "grand collapse of China" that American PR media blares about every week isn't even part of the equation. They still have pretty healthy economic growth, which is something we aren't seeing here in the West.

The US would love to kill two birds with one stone by taking out both Russia and China, but they seem to be hitting a wall trying to dismantle their enemies and competitors on both fronts...