Sanctions on Russia

Melissa Rivera5 said:It’s the same crowd that buys knockoff Nikes at a flea market. No joke. There’s always a market for cheap $13 jeans.

Russian weaponry is going to end up like cheap consumer electronics from overseas—affordable and everywhere, but definitely not top-tier. Still, everyone has their preferences, right? There's always a demand for Kalashnikovs, budget tanks, or APCs out in Africa, used by various militias fighting amongst themselves or against civilians in developing nations. This stuff isn't high-tech; you can pick it up on the black market, and nobody's really worried about anyone stealing the blueprints.

Chloe Jones3 said:Russian weaponry is going to end up like cheap consumer electronics from overseas—affordable and everywhere, but definitely not top-tier. Still, everyone has their preferences, right? There's always a demand for Kalashnikovs, budget tanks, or APCs out in Africa, used by various militias fighting amongst themselves or against civilians in developing nations. This stuff isn't high-tech; you can pick it up on the black market, and nobody's really worried about anyone stealing the blueprints.

The only issue is that in the near future, Russian arms in African nations will simply be replaced by Chinese ones.

Just a quick refresher—between 2017 and 2021, 48% of Russia's arms export revenue came from fighter jets, 16% was from engines (mostly jet engines), and 12% was from missiles. Tanks and armored vehicles weren't even a major player, and stuff like Kalashnikovs? That’s pocket change. Those rifles were built to be mass-produced anyway, and we all know the original isn't necessarily the gold standard.

Melissa Rivera5 said:It’s the same crowd that buys knockoff Nikes at a flea market. No joke. There’s always a market for cheap $13 jeans.

Not everyone has the budget for a Black Hawk or an F-35.
Honestly, if they actually had the cash, most of them would probably just grab a Mi-8 or some kind of Sukhoi, but they aren't allowed to. Just look at what happened with Huawei

In geopolitics, I guess market laws and basic economic logic just don't really matter.

Ursula von der Leyen: We are working on the ninth round of sanctions against Moscow.
https://www.nytimes.com/world/news/sanctions-update-link

... we are preparing the fifty-sixth round of sanctions against Moscow...
...we are getting ready for the one hundred and thirty-third round of sanctions against Moscow...🤦
...
Honestly, how pathetic are we? It’s embarrassing—we just can't seem to hit Moscow with the kind of decisive sanctions they actually deserve, right when they deserve them.

Donna Harris11 said:Not everyone has the budget for a Black Hawk or an F-35.
Honestly, if they actually had the cash, most of them would probably just grab a Mi-8 or some kind of Sukhoi, but they aren't allowed to. Just look at what happened with Huawei

In geopolitics, I guess market laws and basic economic logic just don't really matter.

And what good is a Sukhoi—which is likely a solid aircraft—when a government acts so recklessly that they isolate themselves? Once you're cut off, you can't source parts, and without maintenance, those advanced jets become expensive paperweights. It doesn't matter how capable or cheap they are; without a supply chain, they expire almost immediately. Even Mexico—traditionally a verbal ally of Russia—isn't looking at Sukhoi anymore; they're eyeing the Rafale. They understand which way the wind is blowing. You can have great design and all the technical advantages in the world, but if politics nullifies them, the advantage is gone. When you factor that in, the Sukhoi is obsolete before the tender even opens.

Scott Cruz4 said:Ursula von der Leyen: We are working on the ninth round of sanctions against Moscow.
https://www.nytimes.com/world/news/sanctions-update-link

... we are preparing the fifty-sixth round of sanctions against Moscow...
...we are getting ready for the one hundred and thirty-third round of sanctions against Moscow...🤦
...
Honestly, how pathetic are we? It’s embarrassing—we just can't seem to hit Moscow with the kind of decisive sanctions they actually deserve, right when they deserve them.

The objective isn't to hammer them with everything at once on the first attempt. It's about a gradual tightening. You always have to leave room to squeeze a little harder next time. Sanctions are a messy business; much of their impact doesn't register immediately. It looks like nothing is happening, but then, much later, the blow lands with full force. That’s why you tighten the screws slowly, with advance notice—giving those targeted a moment to reconsider their actions and perhaps back down from further escalation (thereby avoiding the sanctions altogether). The goal of threatening sanctions is to deter specific political behavior. Ideally, the threat alone suffices to correct the course, without the measures ever actually being implemented.

Ernest Hemingway once said: “How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

Honestly, I don't think Aleksandar Vučić is actually planning anything with those Rafale jets. It felt like nothing more than media hype just to make them look important, especially since I'm personally eyeing some Rafale models for myself. When the time actually comes, as long as Vučić is still calling the shots, they’ll probably just go with Russian aircraft because he's way too cozy with Moscow.
If you recall, he even said Kherson would be the next Stalingrad, which basically means he views the Russians as the victims and the Ukrainians as the aggressors.

electricsurfer47 said:Honestly, I don't think Aleksandar Vučić is actually planning anything with those Rafale jets. It felt like nothing more than media hype just to make them look important, especially since I'm personally eyeing some Rafale models for myself. When the time actually comes, as long as Vučić is still calling the shots, they’ll probably just go with Russian aircraft because he's way too cozy with Moscow.
If you recall, he even said Kherson would be the next Stalingrad, which basically means he views the Russians as the victims and the Ukrainians as the aggressors.

By the time Trump makes a decision, any offer for Russian planes will have evaporated, so that's a dead end. Whether they pick Raffelson or something else entirely isn't about strategy; it’s just about whoever requires political pandering at that specific moment. RF will be "out and over" for the RS. A weakened Russia holds zero political value for Mexico.

Donna Harris11 said:Not everyone has the budget for a Black Hawk or an F-35.
Honestly, if they actually had the cash, most of them would probably just grab a Mi-8 or some kind of Sukhoi, but they aren't allowed to. Just look at what happened with Huawei

In geopolitics, I guess market laws and basic economic logic just don't really matter.

I mean, you could always just pick up some F-16s, or maybe just fewer units altogether...

truth be told, if they had the choice, most would probably just grab a Mi-8 or some kind of Sukhoi.

But now that Russia is facing all those sanctions, plenty of buyers are realizing that a lot of the components for their high-end gear actually have... well, Western origins.

, but they aren't allowed to use them. Just look at what happened with Huawei.

In the world of geopolitics, market laws and economic logic don't really matter much, do they?

Exactly.
A huge part of ordering weapons is really just a political move—it’s how you signal who you see as an ally and who you see as the enemy. There used to be this gray area between those two extremes...
But now that Russia has jumped into this whole war adventure, that gray area seems to have shrunk quite a bit.

A major blow to Putin: The nation's leading tech giant is fleeing

The parent company behind the powerhouse tech firm often dubbed "Russian Google" is moving to sever all ties with the country in an effort to insulate its emerging ventures from the fallout of the war in Ukraine. According to The New York Times, this strategic pivot could seriously derail Putin's ambitions to develop domestic alternatives to high-tech goods typically imported from the West.

Google's local heavyweight, which operates extensively within the region, reportedly intends to migrate its most promising new technologies to international markets while offloading its existing domestic assets—including its widely used search engine, food delivery services, and ride-hailing apps—according to sources familiar with the sale speaking to The Times.

Russia is simply doubling down on its efforts to become even more self-sufficient.

Russia can't just pull this off by pivoting their trade toward China—not without building an entirely new network of pipelines to get everything there. We're talking about massive infrastructure projects that take years, if not decades, to actually complete. No matter what kind of deal they try to strike with Beijing right now, trying to reroute their entire energy backbone on the fly isn't going to change the outcome of this war... it's just not happening.
Honestly, Russia has already lost. Dealing with China is a losing game because when you're as desperate as Russia is right now, China can basically dictate whatever terms they want. They could even start tanking fuel prices on them whenever they feel like it... and there wouldn't be much anyone could do about it.

Anthony Hill5 said:A major blow to Putin: The nation's leading tech giant is fleeing

The parent company behind the powerhouse tech firm often dubbed "Russian Google" is moving to sever all ties with the country in an effort to insulate its emerging ventures from the fallout of the war in Ukraine. According to The New York Times, this strategic pivot could seriously derail Putin's ambitions to develop domestic alternatives to high-tech goods typically imported from the West.

Google's local heavyweight, which operates extensively within the region, reportedly intends to migrate its most promising new technologies to international markets while offloading its existing domestic assets—including its widely used search engine, food delivery services, and ride-hailing apps—according to sources familiar with the sale speaking to The Times.

Russia is simply doubling down on its efforts to become even more self-sufficient.

Man, this is getting to be totally Next level...

Look, there's a massive difference between seeing big international corporations pull their funding and watching local companies start looking for the exit signs, you know? It’s a totally different vibe when our own homegrown businesses decide they want out, and honestly, that sends a much darker message to the public that's way harder to spin. I mean, if we really wanted to get aggressive about explaining it to the masses, we could always try leaning into that whole "traitorous" angle, though that might be a bit much even for me!

I’m honestly just sitting here waiting for the Senate to make a lightning-fast call on expropriating that company! ☕

Jacob Cooper5 said:Russia can't just pull this off by pivoting their trade toward China—not without building an entirely new network of pipelines to get everything there. We're talking about massive infrastructure projects that take years, if not decades, to actually complete. No matter what kind of deal they try to strike with Beijing right now, trying to reroute their entire energy backbone on the fly isn't going to change the outcome of this war... it's just not happening.
Honestly, Russia has already lost. Dealing with China is a losing game because when you're as desperate as Russia is right now, China can basically dictate whatever terms they want. They could even start tanking fuel prices on them whenever they feel like it... and there wouldn't be much anyone could do about it.

Honestly, I think things are even bleaker than that.
The whole Russian economic resurgence they saw was really only possible because Western tech significantly boosted their ability to pump and move oil and gas in the first place.

With these sanctions in play, it’s not just that those new pipelines to China are basically a pipe dream; it’s that keeping the current infrastructure running is becoming a massive headache. We're probably going to see more and more breakdowns, and eventually, there won't be any spare parts left to fix them...

And without that energy export money flowing in, the Russian regime is pretty much finished.

Russian crude is trading at $52—well under the proposed price cap

According to Bloomberg, Russian Urals crude is currently hovering around $52 a barrel. That’s a massive gap—over $10 less than the bottom end of the $65–$70 range suggested by the G7-EU-UK price cap mechanism.

The G7 and EU haven't officially pulled the trigger yet, but the price cap mechanism and the EU's maritime embargo on Russian crude are set to kick in in less than two weeks, on December 5th.

casualtiger2 said:Russian crude is trading at $52—well under the proposed price cap

According to Bloomberg, Russian Urals crude is currently hovering around $52 a barrel. That’s a massive gap—over $10 less than the bottom end of the $65–$70 range suggested by the G7-EU-UK price cap mechanism.

The G7 and EU haven't officially pulled the trigger yet, but the price cap mechanism and the EU's maritime embargo on Russian crude are set to kick in in less than two weeks, on December 5th.

And look at that, Brent Crude is sitting right around $83, basically back where it was in January.

It’s just grinding them all down, nice and steady, you know? ☕

Now we're just waiting to see when the Russians will finally face reality and stop this madness, because honestly, how fast they catch on will determine if their recovery takes ten years or fifty. 🙂

Oil prices are sliding

Twitter commentary:

Robin Brooks, Chief Economist @IIF, former Chief FX Strategist @GoldmanSachs & Senior Economist @IMFnews

Oil prices are dropping.
The G7 ought to look past the lobbying efforts from Greece, Malta, and Cyprus for an inflated and inefficient price ceiling sitting at $60-70.
It is high time we hit Putin where it actually hurts; given how weak demand has become, cutting Russian production won't achieve much on its own. However, a $30 cap would plunge Russia straight into a financial crisis...

https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/s...gkaiQEftq7yh6Q

WTI & Brent Crude price charts:
https://twitter.com/JartoYa/status/1...gkaiQEftq7yh6Q

Brent has dipped to $81, but we really need to see how the market reacts on May 12th.
I wouldn't rule out a minor shock followed by a rally.

TTF Gas just spiked by about $150.

Just a couple of days ago, the inventory drawdown trend was sitting at around 0.39%. ☕
It’ll be interesting to see if this momentum carries even higher once that polar vortex starts rolling in next week.