Sanctions on Russia

The impact of sanctions on Russia clearly points toward a massive, steep decline in the Russian economy across every single metric.

Ryan Morales4 said:The impact of sanctions on Russia clearly points toward a massive, steep decline in the Russian economy across every single metric.

Just more disinformation from Western agitators.

The Ruble is stronger than ever, oil is hitting $300, and hydrocarbon export revenues have reached all-time highs.
Meanwhile, over in the UK, three million people are starving and can't even afford basic soap—the West is staring down the barrel of total collapse.

George Robinson43 said:Just more disinformation from Western agitators.

The Ruble is stronger than ever, oil is hitting $300, and hydrocarbon export revenues have reached all-time highs.
Meanwhile, over in the UK, three million people are starving and can't even afford basic soap—the West is staring down the barrel of total collapse.

The figures coming out of those institutions are just projections for 2022. We won't see the real impact of the sanctions until we get a look at the GDP reports for Q4 2022 RF. Honestly, a 7-8% drop wouldn't even surprise me. Even the Federal Reserve, which usually plays it pretty safe with conservative estimates, is forecasting a 7.1% decline for Q4 2022. They really need to start planning realistically if they want to make any smart policy calls, right?

That economic slump is going to hit even harder in 2023. Plus, if all this talk about full mobilization keeps up, you're going to see a massive brain drain as workers flee the RF based on nothing but rumors alone. That’ll just turn the economic crisis into a full-blown meltdown—especially if they pivot to a war economy and end up crushing the "civilian" side of things entirely.

George Robinson43 said:Just more disinformation from Western agitators.

The Ruble is stronger than ever, oil is hitting $300, and hydrocarbon export revenues have reached all-time highs.
Meanwhile, over in the UK, three million people are starving and can't even afford basic soap—the West is staring down the barrel of total collapse.

Those sanctions actually did them a favor; now they’re going to start manufacturing everything themselves, from sewing needles to locomotives. 😁

Sanctions don't work, at least when it comes to egg supplies. In fact, they might actually be doing the exact opposite, according to an international relations expert from the University of Alaska...

''I'm hearing about egg shortages popping up in some Western nations. But thanks to the leadership of Biden, we have plenty of eggs (and other groceries) here in America.''
''I hear there are egg shortages in some Western countries. But thanks to the leadership of Biden, we have more than enough eggs (and other food items) here in America.''

An international relations scholar from the University of Alaska. 🤣😂

wiredseal7 said:So nobody needs them just because we're having a mild autumn? Give it a minute—if a couple of cold fronts sweep in from the north, the mood shifts fast. Suddenly, those new regulations capping temperatures at 60-65 degrees become the "new normal."

Honestly, keeping the house at 62 degrees is perfectly fine. Anything higher than that is really just a luxury. We aren't going to go broke over it.

Nicole James said:Honestly, keeping the house at 62 degrees is perfectly fine. Anything higher than that is really just a luxury. We aren't going to go broke over it.

Look, these higher energy costs are really just the growing pains of finally breaking our dependence on Russia. In the long run, once we get those new supply routes sorted out and finish building up more LNG terminals here in the States, prices should stabilize.

The very least we can do to support the Ukrainians is to swallow these extra utility bills. They're paying their price in blood, while we're just paying ours in dollars.

gentlebadger said:Look, these higher energy costs are really just the growing pains of finally breaking our dependence on Russia. In the long run, once we get those new supply routes sorted out and finish building up more LNG terminals here in the States, prices should stabilize.

The very least we can do to support the Ukrainians is to swallow these extra utility bills. They're paying their price in blood, while we're just paying ours in dollars.

This.

Nicole James said:Honestly, keeping the house at 62 degrees is perfectly fine. Anything higher than that is really just a luxury. We aren't going to go broke over it.

I'm with you on that. Keeping things at 66 during the winter is perfectly okay, I guess. It's the people walking around in flip-flops when it's 80 out who have actual issues—well, they always have had issues. Even fifteen years ago, those folks were whining about the heating bills being too high. Like, seriously, give me a break...

Sanctions against Russia are definitely working—it’s just that most casual observers don't quite grasp how economic policy decisions carry a significant time lag. Because of those long-term contracts signed months or even years ago, a lot of economic variables move pretty slowly, usually reacting with a three-to-six-month delay. GDP, which is our main yardstick for economic activity, is notoriously sluggish; we won't really see the first major impact of these sanctions until February 2023, once the initial GDP assessments for Q4 2022 start rolling in. We're likely looking at a real contraction of 7% or more—which, for a single real economic variable, is actually massive.

And when you look at fixed capital investment? Well, the process of American investors pulling out of Russia is going to be felt for decades. It’s going to take a very long time before they can ever hope to win back the trust of the global investment community.

Even if all the sanctions against Russia were lifted this very second, the country would still be feeling the fallout for several more quarters simply because of how slow-moving these real economic variables are.

Anyone trying to comment on the exchange rate of the Russian ruble (m.) really needs to keep in mind that it's being administratively set by the Federal Reserve—not by actual economic conditions or standard market supply and demand mechanics. That strengthening of the ruble is actually partly a side effect of reduced imports due to the sanctions themselves! Even though the goal of the sanctions was to weaken the currency through financial market uncertainty, the SWIFT blockade, and the freezing of foreign reserves, the math works out differently. Plus, given the strict foreign exchange controls on withdrawing cash in Russia, we should probably expect a parallel exchange rate to pop up on the black market.

If we step back and look at this from a balance of payments perspective, you can clearly see a drop in imports caused by diminished purchasing power and rising uncertainty, paired with an export surge driven by high energy prices back in Q2 and Q3. But now that energy prices (like Ural and Dutch TTF) are stabilizing and with that announced price cap on Russian oil, we can expect those early gains from high energy prices to get completely wiped out.

The Russian financial market is essentially totally isolated from global financial flows, and their ability to borrow money through bond issuances is extremely limited.

Honestly, anyone claiming that sanctions aren't working is just plain wrong. They act a bit like a polar bear—slow, heavy, and steady, but absolutely relentless.

https://www.rferl.org/a/saudis-appro.../30065975.html

Looks like the US Army is heading into Saudi Arabia. Apparently, the King gave the green light personally, probably because things are getting a bit dicey with threats coming from Iran. Seems like the Saudis are feeling the pressure and decided they need some extra muscle nearby.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...sj-2022-11-21/

And wouldn't you know it? OPEC is stepping up production by 500k barrels. Talk about a classic quid pro quo.😬

I’ve seen this movie a hundred times before—whenever things start heating up, everyone starts running to Washington, D.C. to sort it out.

Brent has dipped to $82, while WTI is sitting at $76.

ExxonMobil isn't budging on that $3.25 mark. 🤣

George Robinson43 said:Brent has dipped to $82, while WTI is sitting at $76.

ExxonMobil isn't budging on that $3.25 mark. 🤣

The "Mediterranean market" ☕

So now it's up to you to figure out exactly how that "market" is going to play out.

hollowdriver13 said:The "Mediterranean market" ☕

So now it's up to you to figure out exactly how that "market" is going to play out.

I am watching those record six-month profits roll in. Let's hope they get hit hard enough to feel the sting!

George Robinson43 said:Brent has dipped to $82, while WTI is sitting at $76.

ExxonMobil isn't budging on that $3.25 mark. 🤣

Once ExxonMobil finally lowers prices, the government will probably just hike up the excise taxes anyway.

sykorian said:The real issue is that our financial tax comes at a much steeper price in blood when you look at the kids and civilians caught in the crossfire over in Yemen.

So, why are we kidding ourselves by pretending this is all just about supporting Ukraine? Let's just be honest: this is about standing against the Rus, and we’re acting like the lives of innocent people are just an acceptable cost of doing business.

Whataboutism

Ukraine is paying its toll in civilian lives without even touching the military front lines—didn't see you throwing a fit about that.

Just a little more "whataboutism" regarding the "evil West" and the "innocent" imperialist Rus, and we'll be right on track.

sykorian said:The real issue here is that our financial sacrifices are accompanied by a much steeper toll in blood paid by children and civilians in Yemen.

So, why do we persist in this charade of pretending all of this is purely to support Ukraine? Why can't we simply be honest and admit that this is an effort against the Rus, and that the lives of innocent people are merely considered acceptable collateral damage?

As for the children in Syria being bombed daily by the Russians, I suppose they don't even register as a tragedy because, in the eyes of those pulling the strings, they are just "terrorists," making their deaths perfectly acceptable.

sykorian said:So, I’ll say it again: why aren't we being honest and admitting that this is all just a power grab aimed at Russia, having very little to do with the actual Ukrainian victims?

Because it isn't some mere game for global dominance or a vendetta against Russians; rather, it is a struggle to uphold the United Nations and international order. Russia continues to violate every conceivable international norm and mandate.

Why haven't we sanctioned the Russians over Syria yet?

If the West truly had anything against the Russians, they would have imposed sanctions of this magnitude ages ago—following the incidents in Georgia, Crimea, and the Donbas—not to mention the various chemical poison assassinations on European soil and the blowing up of weapon depots.

We can certainly pretend to be oblivious, but let us not forget that this situation is simply the final straw.

sykorian said:Look, I’ll say it again: why can't we just be honest and admit this is all a massive power play against the Russians? It barely has anything to do with the Ukrainian victims.

Ukraine has been a victim since 2014, and before that, you had Georgia in 2008, and Moldova has been dealing with this since 1991
It was all cooked up by the Russians; someone finally decided enough was enough regarding Russian imperialism in Europe
For too long, the Russians were allowed to get away with everything, which just made them more aggressive and outright disrespectful
What kind of "global power" nonsense are we even talking about here?

sykorian said:Why didn't we slap sanctions on the Russians back during the Syria situation?
Why didn't we sanction the Saudis seven years ago over Yemen?
Or the Israelis because of the longest territorial occupation in history?
There are a million examples and "missed opportunities" for sanctions.

And since when is that happening in Europe? The Arabs can handle their own business—they should worry about their own backyard and their own brothers.

sykorian said:I just pointed out the main thing, so I'm asking—don't you get that it's basically the same thing?

"Every dominant civilization has defined its own concept of order, always viewing itself as the center of the universe"

Man, it’s just not the same. I guess I'd honestly rather deal with the war in Ukraine—which was started by Russia, and they're the only ones to blame here—than have to watch a front line opening up in Washington, D.C., while a Russian-Mexican sphere of influence grows. Those idiots in The White House basically wanted to annex Ukraine, wipe out a whole nation, spread the fighting to a few more neighbors, and then move on to the Baltic. At the same time, they'd probably just hand Mexicans enough ammo to cause more chaos in the North America. Seriously, forget that. Just hit Russia with sanctions and let them starve.