Sanctions on Russia

Peter Sanders4 said:Where exactly does the money the EU pays Russia for gas end up, and can it be redirected elsewhere?

If Russia isn't actually receiving those funds, then the EU is essentially in breach of contract—they aren't paying for the resources they're consuming.

I suspect these sanctions will only serve to accelerate dedollarization, which I view as a highly positive development.

It lands right in an ExxonMobil account owned by the Nord Stream stakeholders—which, let's be real, means Russia owns it. Since 2014, it’s been simple: you pay the price, you get the gas. If they want to know where the money went, they should ask Russia.

They ought to ask if they're ready to pay back the EU and the USA the billions owed from April 4, 2022, or if they're just going to hide behind a default. 😉

Dmitry Rogozin is back at it again, making threats about the ISS being shut down. Honestly, in a year where we’re finally gearing up for those first orbital flights involving both SLSa and Starship, it would be incredibly short-sighted for the Russians to blow up this partnership, especially since their own space program is already starting to look pretty pathetic by comparison compared to the US efforts.

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/...wYBG-9Ojw&s=19

Peter Sanders4 said:Let's be clear: they aren't getting gas for free. It's up to them to figure out how they want to handle that.

Essentially, the EU has imposed sanctions on itself that every citizen will end up footing the bill for. And if we're being honest, the US was the primary driver here, essentially ordering its loyal EU subordinate to follow suit.

Nope.
And it really isn't.
The fallout was bound to happen—it's totally expected! If playing nice doesn't work, then it's time to step back completely...

EU sanctions hit hard: the last rail link connecting Russia to Europe—the St. Petersburg to Helsinki line—has officially stopped running.

Ever since European airlines grounded their flights to Russia, this train became a massive lifeline for travelers. We saw two main groups: young Americans heading abroad to start over, and Americans living in Europe returning home...
They’d hop on the train to Helsinki and then catch a flight from there. It was the same deal for anyone traveling from Europe back into Russia.

Due to the EU sanctions imposed on Russia, this rail connection has been shut down since Monday, March 28th.

wiredseal7 said:Olaf Scholz is doing great—Merkel never would've let things get this messy. To start with, the Americans wouldn't have even bought into the idea that just tightening the screws with sanctions would make the Russians back off from the invasion. Now he can just bang his head against the wall realizing how much damage he's actually done.
Besides, those green energy types don't care anyway—they think we can just run everything on wind and sunshine.

I feel for you. Just try to convince yourself that we're talking about sanctions as a deterrent here. The actual deterrent was the threat of sanctions, whereas now we're moving toward much heavier lifting. But it doesn't really matter—Russians aren't exactly driven by material comfort or luxury like we are in the West. It's all just soy milk and good intentions to them.

slyfox43 said:I feel for you. Just try to convince yourself that we're talking about sanctions as a deterrent here. The actual deterrent was the threat of sanctions, whereas now we're moving toward much heavier lifting. But it doesn't really matter—Russians aren't exactly driven by material comfort or luxury like we are in the West. It's all just soy milk and good intentions to them.

We're talking past each other here.
Sure, Putin ignored the Announcements—he figured he could weather whatever was promised before the war started (plus, he knew the Americans would eventually dump every sanction in the book on him anyway)—but the actual fallout ended up being way more brutal than he anticipated.

But my point is about what happened after those massive sanctions hit in early March, specifically targeting the Russian currency. The EU and US officials thought hitting the money supply would make Putin fold, beg for mercy, or maybe even get ousted so they could dictate terms for an economic surrender.

The gamble with sanctions was whether Putin would actually break or be removed. We can see now that didn't happen—he stayed put, and both sides are going to be bleeding economically for a long time. It’ll be even worse if energy sales grind to a halt on April 1st.

Exactly. Sanctions will take a toll on both sides, much like how the massive buildup during the Cold War drained everyone involved—and we all know who ultimately came out on top in that era.

War is expensive, regardless of the methods used to fight it. While the West didn't start this conflict, they will be the ones to see it through to the end. In what looks like yet another classic case of catastrophic miscalculation, Putin and his inner circle—along with their various supporters—convinced themselves that the West lacks both a coherent vision for victory and the actual stomach for war, and therefore would inevitably lose. As it turns out, they don't have a single logical idea of what winning actually looks like; now, it’s just a matter of how deep a hole they’ll dig for themselves with these desperate, frantic attempts at damage control.

wiredseal7 said:We're talking past each other here.
Sure, Putin ignored the Announcements—he figured he could weather whatever was promised before the war started (plus, he knew the Americans would eventually dump every sanction in the book on him anyway)—but the actual fallout ended up being way more brutal than he anticipated.

But my point is about what happened after those massive sanctions hit in early March, specifically targeting the Russian currency. The EU and US officials thought hitting the money supply would make Putin fold, beg for mercy, or maybe even get ousted so they could dictate terms for an economic surrender.

The gamble with sanctions was whether Putin would actually break or be removed. We can see now that didn't happen—he stayed put, and both sides are going to be bleeding economically for a long time. It’ll be even worse if energy sales grind to a halt on April 1st.

See, my take on the sanctions has always been a bit different. I see them as a way to choke off Russia's ability to fund this war in the long run, essentially pushing them toward poverty so they can't afford to keep fighting—sort of like what happened with South Korea or Iran. Combine that with sending military aid to Ukraine to bleed the Russian military dry until they're practically incapable of any combat operations, and you've got a plan to force Russia to walk away from these insane demands of theirs.

hollowdriver13 said:See, my take on the sanctions has always been a bit different. I see them as a way to choke off Russia's ability to fund this war in the long run, essentially pushing them toward poverty so they can't afford to keep fighting—sort of like what happened with South Korea or Iran. Combine that with sending military aid to Ukraine to bleed the Russian military dry until they're practically incapable of any combat operations, and you've got a plan to force Russia to walk away from these insane demands of theirs.

It's just the American playbook—they've clearly been mapping this out since 2014, if not earlier. Back in 2016, I actually thought Hillary Clinton winning would be a disaster because it would trigger a war with Russia. Now, that same crowd is back in power—just looking a bit more senile—and they've proven 😁
theory right pretty quickly.
The rest of Europe didn't have these plans. Take the French, for example—they might act tough in public, but believe me, they aren't thrilled when some idiot starts dragging General Motors through the mud in a speech before their parliament (especially when it's a state-backed attempt to save a massive investment in Russia). If Europe shouldn't have stepped in there in the first place, then you'll just see players from Korea, Japan, and China moving in.

If Europeans had been smarter earlier and just pushed the Ukrainians to honor the Minsk agreement—which was weirdly backwards since Russia was being sanctioned while the Ukrainians kept sabotaging it—we wouldn't be seeing a war on the continent today.
But that's hard to pull off when certain countries in the EU, especially Poland, seem more loyal to the USA than to the Union itself. That's the biggest hurdle to any real European independence in foreign policy.

General Motors pulled out of Russia. It wasn't actually because of Zelenskyy's speech, but rather due to pressure from the public back home in France...
Now they just have whatever stake they held in Autovaz.

Gary Wilson said:Since Germany is a cornerstone of the EU—and its interests are vital to the entire Union and even non-EU nations—decoupling from Russian gas is absolutely critical.
The truth is, she spent her entire tenure trading away geostrategic space to the Russians just to serve her own interests.
She was also quite diligent in supporting Russian players in the North America, such as Aleksandar Vučić.

We are all paying the price for her foolish policy of dependency on Russia, while Ukrainians are paying for our security with their blood.

Germany has finally realized that security comes with a price tag and shouldn't be used as a bargaining chip. If that cost means more expensive gas, it's still a bargain compared to the total destruction of entire nations.

It isn't just Ukraine fighting in Ukraine. All of Europe is defending itself there. If Ukraine falls, Europe is finished—because this aggressor certainly wouldn't stop at Moldova or the Baltic states.

When Putin’s plans fall apart, he's looking at a total meltdown, pretty much like Slobodan Maddox. The collapse of the Russian Federation would be the perfect way to wrap up his little "operation"—basically erasing a global superpower that's spent the last century causing nothing but chaos and misery...

wiredseal7 said:It's just the American playbook—they've clearly been mapping this out since 2014, if not earlier. Back in 2016, I actually thought Hillary Clinton winning would be a disaster because it would trigger a war with Russia. Now, that same crowd is back in power—just looking a bit more senile—and they've proven 😁
theory right pretty quickly.
The rest of Europe didn't have these plans. Take the French, for example—they might act tough in public, but believe me, they aren't thrilled when some idiot starts dragging General Motors through the mud in a speech before their parliament (especially when it's a state-backed attempt to save a massive investment in Russia). If Europe shouldn't have stepped in there in the first place, then you'll just see players from Korea, Japan, and China moving in.

If Europeans had been smarter earlier and just pushed the Ukrainians to honor the Minsk agreement—which was weirdly backwards since Russia was being sanctioned while the Ukrainians kept sabotaging it—we wouldn't be seeing a war on the continent today.
But that's hard to pull off when certain countries in the EU, especially Poland, seem more loyal to the USA than to the Union itself. That's the biggest hurdle to any real European independence in foreign policy.

Even the original Minsk deal felt like Angela Merkel and Hollande Ukrainian were just playing games with the Ukrainians. Minsk 2 was such a humiliating "agreement" that no country would ever agree to it willingly. The real issue was this whole policy of appeasing Putin and all those extra little clauses Russia demanded. If it had just been about decentralizing Ukraine, it probably would have gone through without any drama.

wiredseal7 said:It's just the American playbook—they've clearly been mapping this out since 2014, if not earlier. Back in 2016, I actually thought Hillary Clinton winning would be a disaster because it would trigger a war with Russia. Now, that same crowd is back in power—just looking a bit more senile—and they've proven 😁
theory right pretty quickly.
The rest of Europe didn't have these plans. Take the French, for example—they might act tough in public, but believe me, they aren't thrilled when some idiot starts dragging General Motors through the mud in a speech before their parliament (especially when it's a state-backed attempt to save a massive investment in Russia). If Europe shouldn't have stepped in there in the first place, then you'll just see players from Korea, Japan, and China moving in.

If Europeans had been smarter earlier and just pushed the Ukrainians to honor the Minsk agreement—which was weirdly backwards since Russia was being sanctioned while the Ukrainians kept sabotaging it—we wouldn't be seeing a war on the continent today.
But that's hard to pull off when certain countries in the EU, especially Poland, seem more loyal to the USA than to the Union itself. That's the biggest hurdle to any real European independence in foreign policy.

Are you suggesting Americans planned the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion in 2022?

What else is happening in that parallel universe you seem to be broadcasting from?

Here’s another little jab at those oligarchs from Russia and Belarus...

Today, the European Union Commission called for a full review of those "golden passports"—you know, the ones used by sanctioned Russian and Belarusian oligarchs.

Countries like Cyprus and Malta have been handing these out to let them move freely through Europe, while Bulgaria has played a smaller part in the scheme. It’s all tied to their investments in those regions.
Actually, when you look at places like Cyprus and Malta, it’s mostly just a front for money laundering and offshore tax havens...

Anthony Perez9 said:When Putin’s plans fall apart, he's looking at a total meltdown, pretty much like Slobodan Maddox. The collapse of the Russian Federation would be the perfect way to wrap up his little "operation"—basically erasing a global superpower that's spent the last century causing nothing but chaos and misery...

I find that hard to swallow; is there really any scenario where a Russian defeat results in anything more catastrophic than the mess we saw when the Soviet Union fell?

Gary Wilson said:Since Germany is a cornerstone of the EU—and its interests are vital to the entire Union and even non-EU nations—decoupling from Russian gas is absolutely critical.
The truth is, she spent her entire tenure trading away geostrategic space to the Russians just to serve her own interests.
She was also quite diligent in supporting Russian players in the North America, such as Aleksandar Vučić.

We are all paying the price for her foolish policy of dependency on Russia, while Ukrainians are paying for our security with their blood.

Germany has finally realized that security comes with a price tag and shouldn't be used as a bargaining chip. If that cost means more expensive gas, it's still a bargain compared to the total destruction of entire nations.

It isn't just Ukraine fighting in Ukraine. All of Europe is defending itself there. If Ukraine falls, Europe is finished—because this aggressor certainly wouldn't stop at Moldova or the Baltic states.

Even if Ukraine were fully occupied—which is an impossible scenario—the EU might survive; I suspect the fear of Vladimir Putin might even force a greater unification within the EU. But that isn't the goal. The ideal scenario is a Ukraine free from the Russian Federation, capable of deciding its own future without outside interference.

Ronald Chavez2 said:I find that hard to swallow; is there really any scenario where a Russian defeat results in anything more catastrophic than the mess we saw when the Soviet Union fell?

I don't see such a scenario right now either. However, looking back at how rapidly the Soviet Union disintegrated—it was difficult to track in real-time... we learned from that lesson that truly any outcome remains possible.

Grace Bennett6 said:It lands right in an ExxonMobil account owned by the Nord Stream stakeholders—which, let's be real, means Russia owns it. Since 2014, it’s been simple: you pay the price, you get the gas. If they want to know where the money went, they should ask Russia.

They ought to ask if they're ready to pay back the EU and the USA the billions owed from April 4, 2022, or if they're just going to hide behind a default. 😉

There is zero incentive for them to settle debts under these circumstances. They are already under sanctions, frozen out, and kicked off Swift. Repaying loans is likely the least of their concerns right now; frankly, the burden lies with the creditors, not the debtors. This situation merely adds pressure to the financial institutions that extended them credit—those banks are left wondering how to write off these losses. The only leverage one might have against the debtors is when they eventually require fresh financing, and that moment will inevitably arrive. Even if these old debts were somehow cleared, they would still face a higher risk profile, which translates to much steeper interest rates down the road.

Anthony Hill5 said:Are you suggesting Americans planned the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion in 2022?

What else is happening in that parallel universe you seem to be broadcasting from?

I don't know about some parallel universe, but over here—it looks like they skipped right over the opening act (and by that, I mean the snipers).
So, what actually went down before the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014? And since you’re asking about Crimea—what was the deal with the new administration's plan to sign that 50-year lease for the port in Sevastopol?

hollowdriver13 said:Even the original Minsk deal felt like Angela Merkel and Hollande Ukrainian were just playing games with the Ukrainians. Minsk 2 was such a humiliating "agreement" that no country would ever agree to it willingly. The real issue was this whole policy of appeasing Putin and all those extra little clauses Russia demanded. If it had just been about decentralizing Ukraine, it probably would have gone through without any drama.

They weren't exactly in a position to dictate terms back then—it was humiliating, sure, but it kept things from going south completely. If they had just stuck to the part about ending the conflict and getting life back to normal in those areas, we wouldn't be here. Instead, they went and doubled down by mobilizing over a thousand soldiers for an offensive on two separate occasions.
Vladimir Putin probably wants this whole thing wrapped up just so he can bury the hatchet with the European Union—get those remaining sanctions lifted and keep the cash flowing into his pockets.
They didn't really want to greenlight something like that—the Brits were pretty much on the same page—but the European Union should have stepped up, been more assertive, and forced the Ukrainians to just wrap things up over there.

Now instead we’re stuck watching this massive slaughter and the total devastation of eastern Ukraine—honestly, you decide which is better.

Nancy Gomez26 said:There is zero incentive for them to settle debts under these circumstances. They are already under sanctions, frozen out, and kicked off Swift. Repaying loans is likely the least of their concerns right now; frankly, the burden lies with the creditors, not the debtors. This situation merely adds pressure to the financial institutions that extended them credit—those banks are left wondering how to write off these losses. The only leverage one might have against the debtors is when they eventually require fresh financing, and that moment will inevitably arrive. Even if these old debts were somehow cleared, they would still face a higher risk profile, which translates to much steeper interest rates down the road.

You need an agreement to keep the borrowing going, and we aren't talking about small interest rates here. That could lead to both sides just writing off the interest; it's really not that complicated...

Too bad I can't open the article, but looking at the headline, gold is headed south, south... or maybe...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/go...?siteid=yhoof2