Sanctions on Russia

Brenda Murphy3 said:Yeah, but the real question is how long they actually last, that's for sure.

But here's the kicker: if this ends today, there are going to be massive, long-term consequences for Russia... and I mean seriously negative ones. Everything else you hear is just hot air from Putin fans or people who, for whatever weird reason, want to see the European Union take a hit.

Anyone who thinks Russia can actually win a serious economic war against the European Union and the West—honestly, they have no clue what they're talking about. Sure, the European Union might run into some bumps in the road; they could even slip into a recession for a year or two (though that's a stretch), but compared to Russia, they can handle this conflict and the rapid pivot away from Russian energy without breaking a sweat. Russia doesn't have that luxury. A huge chunk of their entire budget relies on energy exports, making them completely dependent on cooperation with the West.
And before the trolls jump down my throat—I'm not saying Russia is going to "collapse." That word itself is pretty meaningless; a nation doesn't just "collapse" overnight. But the gap in living standards and quality of life between Russia and the European Union? That gap is going to widen significantly, and it's only going to keep growing.
The only people claiming otherwise are total idiots, people who don't know any better, or die-hard partisans for one side or the other. This isn't even about the aggression against Ukraine; these are just plain old facts...

It's possible, provided everyone stays unified and stands together, which unfortunately won't happen since the group is generally pretty fractured.
You've got Canada, which certainly won't give up on importing cheap Russian energy, but then you also have the Germans, who aren't about to risk a recession.

restlessmason54 said:If you want a quick lesson, just rewind the clock to 2014 and 2015 and look at how hypocritical the West was being regarding the annexation of Crimea—those sanctions were about as effective as they were sincere.

Do you honestly believe a major powerhouse like Germany is going to tank its own economy just because Putin and some insignificant conflict in Ukraine are rattling guns over there? 🤣
Forget the European Union for a second; the Germans are the ones calling the shots here, and their hands are on the wheel. Just don't forget about Nord Stream 2.

Actually, it's quite the opposite—forget about Nord Stream 2.

hollowdriver13 said:That is some top-tier "logic" proving how much Russia basically treats the EU like a joke. 🙏

I mean, seriously, this deep dive into geopolitics definitely deserves a PhD.

Why do you feel the need to dive into such exhausting detail just to soothe your ego because you can't find any actual arguments to counter mine?
In a capitalist system, money is the only thing that actually matters; once the cash starts flowing, every single barrier just evaporates.
All of this posturing regarding economic sanctions is really just a massive performance staged for public consumption.

Arthur Watson4 said:Actually, it's quite the opposite—forget about Nord Stream 2.

Oh, please. You really think those hypocritical Germans didn't just throw billions of dollars down the drain only to end up lighting their own houses on fire out of pure spite? 🍿 🤣

restlessmason54 said:If you want a quick lesson, just rewind the clock to 2014 and 2015 and look at how hypocritical the West was being regarding the annexation of Crimea—those sanctions were about as effective as they were sincere.

Do you honestly believe a major powerhouse like Germany is going to tank its own economy just because Putin and some insignificant conflict in Ukraine are rattling guns over there? 🤣
Forget the European Union for a second; the Germans are the ones calling the shots here, and their hands are on the wheel. Just don't forget about Nord Stream 2.

In a situation like this? They absolutely will.

In fact, they’re actually going to use this whole mess as an excuse to completely flip their military and security policies—and they're already doing it. It’s obvious you aren't exactly plugged into what's happening on the ground in Germany, but there are plenty of people over there who see this as a golden opportunity to pivot everything. Despite the energy crisis, they want to push progress in other sectors. We're talking about dumping $100 billion into the military almost overnight—something that would have been unthinkable before the Russian aggression started. This is happening right now. Along with a bunch of other stuff. A few years of headaches in the energy sector is a price they are more than willing to pay... and considering how massive their industry and export profits are, they can definitely afford it.

Your take is just pure, delusional fantasy written from a Kremlin-friendly perspective. It isn't reality at all... but hey, you aren't the first person to write nonsense like this, and you won't be the last.

(And let's be real, you're stacking up wrong assumptions left and right. First, you guys were mocking the West for saying Russia would invade, then you claimed it was a narrow operation, then you said they wouldn't go after Kyiv, then that it would all be over in a few days, then that the EU would just sit there silently because they're hooked on Russian gas, etc., etc., etc... it's just a long list of failed, stupid theories, yet you're still clinging to this fairy tale vision of things. 😉). But if it makes you feel better, go ahead and keep typing, man... we aren't Russians. 😁

restlessmason54 said:Oh, please. You really think those hypocritical Germans didn't just throw billions of dollars down the drain only to end up lighting their own houses on fire out of pure spite? 🍿 🤣

They aren't crazy enough to let themselves get backed into a corner like that again.

That's it, game over, end of story. ☕

In that thread where we’re all busy tallying up the sanctions, I can't believe some guy with zero brain cells is actually sitting there being dead serious, claiming that money is the only thing that matters

wiredseal7 said:I don't know about some parallel universe, but over here—it looks like they skipped right over the opening act (and by that, I mean the snipers).
So, what actually went down before the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014? And since you’re asking about Crimea—what was the deal with the new administration's plan to sign that 50-year lease for the port in Sevastopol?

They weren't exactly in a position to dictate terms back then—it was humiliating, sure, but it kept things from going south completely. If they had just stuck to the part about ending the conflict and getting life back to normal in those areas, we wouldn't be here. Instead, they went and doubled down by mobilizing over a thousand soldiers for an offensive on two separate occasions.
Vladimir Putin probably wants this whole thing wrapped up just so he can bury the hatchet with the European Union—get those remaining sanctions lifted and keep the cash flowing into his pockets.
They didn't really want to greenlight something like that—the Brits were pretty much on the same page—but the European Union should have stepped up, been more assertive, and forced the Ukrainians to just wrap things up over there.

Now instead we’re stuck watching this massive slaughter and the total devastation of eastern Ukraine—honestly, you decide which is better.

It is precisely that parallel universe I am referring to—that alternate reality where the Ukrainian opposition supposedly committed suicide via sniper fire, a reality where the Azov regiment was bombing civilians in theaters, and yet another reality where Syrians were apparently poisoning themselves with chemical weapons.

Prior to the 2014 annexation of Crimea, there was a popular revolution that ousted a criminal, a villain, and a traitor; this was followed by democratic elections in which that very same criminal could have participated had he not slaughtered hundreds of people before fleeing to Russia. Furthermore, I fail to see how any of that provides a shred of justification for what Putin subsequently did through the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbas.

And what ever happened to that Sevastopol port agreement?

but the EU should have been stronger and forced the Ukrainians to just wrap things up over there.

Now, instead, we are left with this massive slaughter and the devastation of eastern Ukraine. Which, if you ask me, is somehow better.

How fascinating that suddenly, meddling in the internal affairs of other nations becomes justifiable and even desirable, provided it aligns with Putin's interests.

So, according to this logic, the blame for the war lies with Europe for failing to force Ukraine to get its act together, rather than with Putin's imperialistic agenda.

You are truly living in deep denial.

restlessmason54 said:It's possible, provided everyone stays unified and stands together, which unfortunately won't happen since the group is generally pretty fractured.
You've got Canada, which certainly won't give up on importing cheap Russian energy, but then you also have the Germans, who aren't about to risk a recession.

And yeah, totally "disorganized" (even if they aren't, but fine, whatever you say)—the absolute worst-case scenario here is a recession lasting maybe a year or two... and that's pretty much it.
The sanctions back in 2014 were basically child's play compared to what we're looking at now... though even those hit Russia hard enough to burn through a massive chunk of their reserves, etc... but man, I'm getting off track here.

Canada is way too small of a player to actually move the needle in this game... but that's a whole different conversation.

restlessmason54 said:Why do you feel the need to dive into such exhausting detail just to soothe your ego because you can't find any actual arguments to counter mine?
In a capitalist system, money is the only thing that actually matters; once the cash starts flowing, every single barrier just evaporates.
All of this posturing regarding economic sanctions is really just a massive performance staged for public consumption.

👍

So, you've got nothing, which explains why you're dodging the specifics.
Honestly, I'm not even surprised.

Halbeck points out that since the invasion began, our reliance on Russian energy has taken a serious hit. Specifically, their share of imported gas has dropped from 55% down to 40%, oil has slid from 35% to 25%, and coal imports have been slashed from 50% to 25%.

restlessmason54 said:Oh, please. You really think those hypocritical Germans didn't just throw billions of dollars down the drain only to end up lighting their own houses on fire out of pure spite? 🍿 🤣

Billions?! Give me a break—you’re telling me that kind of money is actually on the table? 😲 Oh yeah, I’m sure they'll suddenly have a change of heart right this second!

It’s a good thing only the Germans lost billions—it definitely wasn't ExxonMobil.

Carl Lee27 said:In that thread where we’re all busy tallying up the sanctions, I can't believe some guy with zero brain cells is actually sitting there being dead serious, claiming that money is the only thing that matters

Please read quotes with a bit of comprehension.

To Americans, money seems to be the only metric that carries weight.

To Russians, it isn't even a factor.

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🤣

Drew Booth60 said:Honestly, I only trust the experts on this forum and what they say is coming next.

"Experts?" Please. I’d take this one user's word over yours any day of the week:

This is how they see Cyberpunk in Russia—just a bunch of trolls who think they’re economic experts.

Honestly, what did you guys expect?

Did you really think the Russia-lovers would finally admit that Russia’s economy is basically a joke, about the size of Spain's?

Or that they're totally dependent on selling energy to the West just to stay afloat?

Or that their military is actually a paper tiger that can't even crack Ukraine, instead of being this unstoppable force that's supposedly gonna hit the Atlantic Ocean in two days?

Richard Wilson4 said:Honestly, what did you guys expect?

Did you really think the Russia-lovers would finally admit that Russia’s economy is basically a joke, about the size of Spain's?

Or that they're totally dependent on selling energy to the West just to stay afloat?

Or that their military is actually a paper tiger that can't even crack Ukraine, instead of being this unstoppable force that's supposedly gonna hit the Atlantic Ocean in two days?

They would have reached the Atlantic in twenty-four hours if they weren't so preoccupied with protecting their wheat and buckwheat supplies just to ensure we Americans don't starve to death.

Look, there’s no way Russia is just going to collapse. I mean, think about the scale of what they’re pulling in—we're talking $300 billion from oil alone, plus another $150 billion from gas, and maybe $50 billion from food exports. Toss in all their other raw materials like aluminum, gold, copper, and coal, not to mention they have some of the largest reserves of fresh water and massive forest coverage on the planet.
The thing is, these are all commodities. There isn't a "Made in Russia" stamp on a barrel of crude or a shipment of iron ore that stops a buyer in their tracks. You don't have to register a ton of oil like you do a Ford F-150, and you can't exactly ban someone from driving it once they've bought it. With how high oil, gas, and mineral prices are sitting right now, I honestly don't see their GDP dipping below the $1 trillion mark annually.

Just look at the math: even with Iran being under heavy sanctions, their nominal GDP still manages to outpace Turkey's.

Anthony Hill5 said:They would have reached the Atlantic in twenty-four hours if they weren't so preoccupied with protecting their wheat and buckwheat supplies just to ensure we Americans don't starve to death.

Dapace, it isn't just that they're trampling everything in sight; they're actively blocking everyone else from stepping foot on their soil by littering the fields with rocket mine systems that—I am not even kidding—are being called "agriculture."

Amy Diaz22 said:Look, there’s no way Russia is just going to collapse. I mean, think about the scale of what they’re pulling in—we're talking $300 billion from oil alone, plus another $150 billion from gas, and maybe $50 billion from food exports. Toss in all their other raw materials like aluminum, gold, copper, and coal, not to mention they have some of the largest reserves of fresh water and massive forest coverage on the planet.
The thing is, these are all commodities. There isn't a "Made in Russia" stamp on a barrel of crude or a shipment of iron ore that stops a buyer in their tracks. You don't have to register a ton of oil like you do a Ford F-150, and you can't exactly ban someone from driving it once they've bought it. With how high oil, gas, and mineral prices are sitting right now, I honestly don't see their GDP dipping below the $1 trillion mark annually.

Just look at the math: even with Iran being under heavy sanctions, their nominal GDP still manages to outpace Turkey's.

Sure, they won't go under, but don't think they'll keep making bank like they used to. Do your homework—look at how much oil, gas, and coal imports from the Russian Federation to the European Union have already dropped, and that trend is only going down. If you think everything is just going to stay status quo, you're dead wrong. If Russia actually wants a seat at the table with Western nations again, they're going to need some massive, fundamental changes.