Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

Drew Wright said:Robin van Persie (idg)-Turkey-Netherlands (10.15. 20:00) betting@3.20Van Persie is leading the qualifiers with 11 goals—with Džeko right behind him at 10, who’s playing now and will likely net his 11th, if not more. If Van Persie starts tonight, he'll score; that's why I'm hoping for a full Dutch lineup...🙂

I've seen a few articles suggesting Persie won't be playing tonight.

van Persie is playing... but the Americans have plenty of young talent on the field too

James Taylor3 said:What do you guys think—can our boys beat Scotland today?
I think they can, regardless of how poorly we've been playing lately.

We have too much individual talent and a clear edge over the Scots; plus, there's no pressure from recent results, and the players are undoubtedly motivated to prove themselves after the entire nation tore them apart.

James Taylor3 said:True, but even when people were trashing them, they still showed up to watch and support. After the matches against Wales and Mexico, people rarely criticized the team because the results hadn't turned sour yet, despite the play.

The Belgium game was really the breaking point—there weren't even 6,000 fans at the stadium.
And you can tell by the players' comments (Pletikosa and someone else) that they’re motivated and want to make some amends.

And now you're being dense. You see my point. Regardless of how important this match is, they want to fix the mood within and around the team before the next qualifying round.
They want to redeem themselves to themselves, to each other, and to the American public. They surely want "revenge" against Scotland, since that loss at the home stadium started this slump—everything had been perfect until then.

In any case, I'm not betting on this one—at least not until I see the lineups. If the coach starts with a strong XI, I'm definitely taking the double; if he makes 4 or 5 changes from the usual starters, I'll pass on betting.

Our guys are playing their strongest available lineup, so I'm going with:

Scotland - USA 2 @ 2.40 SS 5/10

SD Eibar - Alcorcon AD 2,5 manje, 1,65 @SS

So, we've got this third-round matchup in the King's Cup between two second-division sides, Eibar and Alcorcon. These two actually just faced off about eleven days ago in league play, and if you want to talk about a snooze fest, that game ended in a 0-0 deadlock. Both squads play an incredibly gritty, defensive style—you rarely see more than two goals when they're on the pitch. Looking at the numbers, Eibar has only crossed that two-goal threshold three times in nine league rounds, and honestly, the visitors are even worse, hitting that mark only twice. On top of that, both teams are struggling to find the back of the net regularly; Eibar has bagged just six goals in nine games, while the away side has managed eight. Since this is the Cup and it’s not exactly the top priority for these guys, I’m expecting some rotated lineups and even fewer goals than usual.

Good luck!

Lakers-Warriors 3+ 1,76

Man, these teams just don't know how to stop scoring... their games are absolute goal fests.
We're looking at an average of over 4.5 goals per match when they face off.
In their last 10 matchups, they've hit the 3+ mark every single time—actually, it's usually way more than that;
for instance, 8 of those games ended with 4+, and 5 went even higher with 5+

02.16.13, Lakers-Warriors 2 : 3
09.26.12, SC Freiburg - Lakers-Warriors 1 : 2
02.05.12, SC Freiburg - Lakers-Warriors 2 : 2
08.20.11, Lakers-Warriors - SC Freiburg 5 : 3
03.06.11, SC Freiburg - Lakers-Warriors 1 : 3
10.16.10, Lakers-Warriors - SC Freiburg 2 : 1
04.10.10, Lakers-Warriors - SC Freiburg 4 : 0
11.21.09, SC Freiburg - Lakers-Warriors 0 : 6
05.14.05, Lakers-Warriors - SC Freiburg 4 : 1
12.04.04, SC Freiburg - Lakers-Warriors 0 : 6

And get this—every single time SC Freiburg has played away, they've cleared the 3+ line.

Lakers-Warriors/both teams to score at 1.60
Look, we’re talking about an absolutely incredible Lakers side right now—they’ve been tearing through the league with a ridiculous +20 goal differential in just their first seven games. They are playing at a maxed-out level. On the flip side, you’ve got Napoli, who aren't exactly lagging behind either (sitting at 18:4 with only one draw). Honestly, these are currently the two heavyweights of the US league. If you look back at the history between these two clubs, they almost always deliver high-scoring, explosive matches. Out of their last 10 meetings, both sides found the net in 7 of them, and in 6 of those cases, they actually cleared the 3+ goal mark. Given the offensive firepower and the specific playing styles both squads use—which, let's be honest, is pretty unconventional for this kind of league—I'm expecting goals from both sides today, if nothing else.

Zenit-CSKA 1 at 1.80
CSKA has been struggling big time lately; they've managed to find the back of the net in only one of their last six outings. Meanwhile, Zenit is absolutely dominating the Russian League with a massive 9-2-1 record, while CSKA is sitting much lower at 5th with a shaky 6-3-3. Recent head-to-head matchups tell the exact same story... everything points toward Zenit.

SS Mons - Anderlecht 2 @1,55 SS

Honestly, Mons is hands down the worst squad in the Belgian league right now. I mean, seriously? They’ve managed to scrape together a pathetic two points in ten matches. Total disaster. But today, they’ve got one of the heavyweights coming to town—the big boys from the capital, Anderlecht. Now, even though the guys from the capital have already dropped four games this season and are sitting in fifth place—nine points behind the leaders, Standard—they shouldn't be messing around with a team this weak. I'm expecting an easy win for the visitors today as they try to climb back up the table.

USA (17) - Morocco (17) 1 @1,80 SS

The U17 World Cup kicks off today with our first match. On paper, this looks like a damn good generation for American soccer. We've got talent like the polished Halilović, Brodić, and Salzburg's Roguljić ready to go. I don't know much about how the Moroccans play, but they finished 4th in Africa, and that was on their own turf, so I highly doubt they're actually better than our kids. With odds like these, I have to take the win for the Americans.

Good luck!

Yankees-Red Sox Over 2.5 goals at 1.70

So, looking at the numbers here—Slovan's home games are averaging about 3.4 goals per match, while the visitors, the Red Sox, are seeing an even wilder average of 3.8... basically a goal fest every time they step on the pitch.
The Red Sox were grinding through Europa League qualifiers this season too
They knocked out Gothenburg, and honestly, both those matches against Astra were wide open, just pure chaos with plenty of scoring—we’re talking 1:3 and 2:2 vibes.
What's really catching my eye, though, is how these two teams play when they meet in the Corgoň Liga... it’s almost a tradition at this point to see a bunch of goals fly in.
They've already met once this season—Red Sox took it 4:2—but check this trend out: their last 12 matchups have all hit Over 2.5, and the last 7? They've all smashed Over 3.5. It's insane...

07/28/13 Trenčín-Slovan 4 - 2
05/05/13 Trenčín-Slovan 4 - 1
11/24/12 Slovan-Trenčín 3 - 1
08/25/12 Trenčín-Slovan 2 - 2
03/24/12 Slovan-Trenčín 2 - 2
10/15/11 Trenčín-Slovan 2 - 2
07/15/11 Slovan-Trenčín 3 - 1
04/26/08 Slovan-Trenčín 3 - 0
11/12/07 Trenčín-Slovan 1 - 2
08/11/07 Slovan-Trenčín 2 - 1
09/23/06 Trenčín-Slovan 1 - 2
07/15/06 Slovan-Trenčín 2 - 1

today, 20:30Nice-Marseille -3 1.60

Sixth versus fourth; I expect a tough matchup.
Marseille is considered the superior side, but these types of away games often end in draws or low-scoring affairs.
In recent years, most of their matchups, particularly in Nice, have ended with two goals or fewer.
Marseille hosts Napoli on Tuesday in the LP, so they might just aim to remain undefeated here while staying fresh for that fixture. Given they are sitting at zero points, this is likely their last chance to stay in contention.

Today, 7 PM Dragovoljac - Hajduk 2 1.90

Dragovoljac is currently sitting at the bottom of the table alongside Osijek with only 7 points. They’ve managed just one measly win against a crumbling Osijek side, so they are definitely prime candidates for relegation.
While away games in the American First Football League can be tough and messy at times, everything seems to be leaning in favor of the Split residents. Plus, yesterday’s loss by GNK in Youth Park should serve as extra motivation; a win today would put them right at the top of the table.
I don't expect a spectacular match, but Hajduk is simply much more talented, and this is "that" kind of opportunity they just have to take.
Over the last two rounds, Hajduk has played to draws in derbies against Rijeka and Split, so they really can't afford another slip-up today.
The odds look solid, and I think it might be worth a shot.

Tuesday 6:00 PM

U17 World Cup

USA(17)-Nigeria(17) 2 @ 2.00

Man, those guys from West Africa—Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria—they just dominate this age group. Honestly, they love to cheat with their ages too; I mean, FIFA already stripped them of a few players last month after they failed tests, but clearly, they didn't catch everyone 😂 since they absolutely demolished the 2011 defending champs 6-1 in their opening match! 😲

Nigeria is hands down the most successful U17 squad out there—they've grabbed 3 World Cup titles and made 3 finals in just 14 tournaments so far.

In the qualifiers, they totally crushed their biggest African rivals, Congo, 7-0. http://www.goal.com/en-ng/match/1064...ia-u17/report?

Total dominance at this level, seriously.

On the other hand, the US isn't doing anything special—just playing out boring 0-0 draws against the Slovaks and Austrians during the same period.

One thing is for sure—I'm going to end up losing my shirt on some random underdog pick:



Daugava 1
Honestly, I have no idea why I even put this odd on my parlay. It's almost ridiculous. The home side is chasing a ticket to the Europa League where they'll likely just get embarrassed in the group stages anyway, and the visitors? They’re a joke—they regularly concede five or six goals like it’s nothing.

Stabaek 1
A win here would pretty much guarantee them a return to the top flight. Meanwhile, the away side has already drifted into the abyss of the lower leagues.

Lokossi 1
Not our local favorites from New York that we all root for—no, I mean the guys from Mother Russia. They’re hunting for a spot at the top of the table and that second place that brings the tttttttt anthem.

AIK 1
The squad from the late Turin is chasing a Europa League spot with only two or three games left, facing off against Norrköping, who are sitting comfortably in the middle of the pack.

Besiktas 1
Mindžušarov's squad could move within a single point of the leaders, Fenerbahçe, if they pull this off. But they're up against a decent Rizespor side. This one feels like a potential landmine.

Mersin 1
Since when did the Turkish second division even show up in the betting markets? It's Monday, so might as well throw a dart at the board, and these guys are in peak form. Soccerway shows they've won four straight, while the visitors are struggling with just 5 points in 8 rounds.

Bilbao-Villarreal over 2.5 goals
Both teams score plenty, but they also leak goals like a sieve. Perfect for an over bet, especially since 7 of their last 10 matches have gone over that 2.5 line.

Home-Tampines over 2.5 goals
This is the second half of the Singapore league, where the visitors have basically already locked up the title. I'm expecting some end-to-end action, which should make this bet hit.

Orebro 2
Another total wildcard here. You've got the home team in absolutely atrocious form fighting to stay up, while the visitors are pushing for promotion. Total chaos waiting to happen.

I tacked on a few more picks to this increasingly ridiculous Friday afternoon parlay:

Crystal Palace-Fulham X @ 3.10

A matchup between the bad and the worse. I'm expecting a snooze-fest that ends in a draw. The home side hasn't even managed a tie yet this season.

USA-Panama 2 @ 7,00

Our boys absolutely shined during the opening match of the U17 World Cup in the Emirates—they basically cruised to a three-goal lead against the Moroccans (who, let's be honest, aren't anything special) before even hitting halftime. I don't know much about the Panama squad, but I was honestly surprised to see people underestimating the Canaleros. We all know our teams have historically struggled when they enter a game as the clear favorites playing against an "Indian" side.

Arsenal - Dortmund 1 (2.6o SS)

Watching Arsenal lately feels like a trip down memory lane back to the days when we had Bergkamp, Henry, Ljungberg, and Pires tearing it up.
Look, I get it... Ramsey isn't Henry, and Ozil isn't Bergkamp, but man, these guys are absolutely lethal right now.

The ball movement is lightning fast, their counter-attacks are clinical, they switch play perfectly, and you can basically bank on Ramsey finding the net in almost every match.
With Cazorla back in the mix, after catching the game against Norwich, they actually look even more dangerous than before.

That should be more than enough to cook Borussia, especially since they've been struggling lately, particularly when they have to travel.

Tuesday, 8:45 PM Wolverhampton-Oldham 1 1.65

Sitting 3rd against 18th, Oldham has won their last two matches, though they've been terrible on the road, picking up only 3 points away from home.
Wolves drew their last home game against Coventry City, so I suppose it's time for another win to keep them within reach of those top two spots that guarantee direct promotion.
The season is long and grueling; you can't afford any slip-ups in games like this if the goal is returning to the Championship.
I wouldn't call this a lock, but Wolves are clearly the more talented side. They are more efficient, and everything seems to be in their favor to take all three points today.
Might be worth a shot.

stormyharbor13 said:Tuesday, 8:45 PM Wolverhampton-Oldham 1 1.65

Sitting at 3rd against 18th... Oldham has lost their last two, and honestly, they've been terrible on the road—picking up only 3 points total...
The Wolves just played to a draw at home against Coventry City, so it's definitely time for another win to keep them within striking distance of those top two spots—which, of course, means direct promotion...
It’s a long, grueling season, and you really can't afford any slip-ups if the goal is getting back into the Championship...
I wouldn't call this a "sure thing," but Wolves are clearly the better side here—more efficient and everything seems to be lining up for them to grab all three points today...
Worth a shot...

Just my two cents, but I wouldn't touch this at those odds... I actually put money on Oldham against Carlisle earlier, and I'd probably do it again if they weren't facing Wolves today. There isn't a massive gap in quality, so this could easily go either way—especially since MacDonald is out, which is a huge blow... though they're still a tough squad regardless...

Daniel Edwards said:Just saying, I wouldn't touch this game at these odds. I put money on Oldham against Carlisle before, and honestly, I’d probably do the same today if they weren't facing Wolves. There isn't much difference in quality here. It should be an unpredictable match that could go either way. MacDonald being out is a significant loss, but they're still a strong side regardless.

I realize it's a tough matchup, but that's mostly due to the current standings, Oldham's poor away form, and the reputation of Wolves.

Honduras(17)-Brazil(17) favorite+2 @1,50 SS

Brazil is absolutely tearing it up at this U17 World Cup. I mean, seriously, two games in and they’ve already dropped two massive 6:1 blowouts against Slovakia and the UAE. It’s clinical. On the flip side, you look at Honduras, and they’ve been playing these totally neck-and-neck matches against those exact same teams—a 2:1 win over the UAE and a 2:2 grind against the Slovaks. It just goes to show they're basically on the same level quality-wise. But honestly? Brazil should be able to run away with this one by at least two goals, even if they've already punched their ticket to the next round.

Wednesday, 8:45 PM, Bayern/gsp/ - Viktoria Plzen Bayern Bayern DA 1.50
The Bavarians showed total dominance during their first two group matches.
They are creating plenty of chances and completely controlling the pitch. After that performance in Manchester, I doubt they'll want to mess things up by playing poorly or dropping points against an underdog from Plzeň.
It seems likely the Bavarians want to mathematically secure first place in the group as soon as possible. Because of that, I expect them to push hard from the opening whistle, potentially scoring at least one or two goals per half against the Czech side.
Just as a look at how much Bayern has dominated in the LP so far:

Bayern - CSKA 3:0
shots (on target) 20 (13)

Manchester City - Bayern 1:3
shots (on target) 20 (13)

Bayer Leverkusen-Shakhtar Donetsk 3+

Man, we’re looking at a total toss-up here between two heavy hitters... both sides play this aggressive, high-octane style and honestly? Their attacking lineups are just stacked right now.
Just look at Kiesling Son going head-to-head against Alex Teixeira, Douglas Costa, and Luiz Adriano.

Both squads have been absolutely tearing it up lately—I mean, they haven't tasted defeat since mid-September. They’re winning, they’re scoring, and they aren't slowing down... so, it’s a safe bet to expect plenty of goals when these two finally collide.