Turkey - TR

auto182 said:They can't do a damn thing to Erdogan while they're dealing with Russ.

Who exactly are "they"?
If you’re referring to the crowd over at ONE, then they absolutely can... and it’s precisely because of their situation with Russ.
That's exactly what they did to Russ, too.
Best,

piskavac said:The Kurds control Aleppo.

The Kurds don't control Aleppo... I mean, when was the last time you actually looked at a map of Syria?

Bryan Booth82 said:Who exactly are "they"?
If you’re referring to the crowd over at ONE, then they absolutely can... and it’s precisely because of their situation with Russ.
That's exactly what they did to Russ, too.
Best,

They tried to take down Erdogan, but they failed specifically because of the Russians, and they won't succeed again for that exact same reason. What did they do to the Russians?
P.S. We're all watching as Bashar al-Assad's fate is effectively sealed. 😁

loneskipper10 said:They tried to take down Erdogan, but they failed specifically because of the Russians, and they won't succeed again for that exact same reason. What did they do to the Russians?
P.S. We're all watching as Bashar al-Assad's fate is effectively sealed. 😁

Once again, you failed to mention who "They" actually are, but even without that clarification, I don't see any point to what you're saying.
Try again, and this time, try to make some actual sense.
Best,

Vladimir Zhirinovsky, head of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), claims that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told him personally that they’re ready to ditch NATO.

"I've sat down with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan twice now. He told me straight up: Turkey is ready to walk away from NATO. They want in with the EU, but they're getting ghosted. They check every single box, yet they still won't let them in. NATO only rushed them in because their land was perfect for staging operations against Russia."

nimblepuma69 said:Vladimir Zhirinovsky, head of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), claims that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told him personally that they’re ready to ditch NATO.

"I've sat down with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan twice now. He told me straight up: Turkey is ready to walk away from NATO. They want in with the EU, but they're getting ghosted. They check every single box, yet they still won't let them in. NATO only rushed them in because their land was perfect for staging operations against Russia."

By the way, Zhirinovsky is actually a fascinating character—a huge supporter of Turkey, especially regarding the Muslim community.

Besides, let’s be real: Erdoğan isn't Putin, and Turkey isn't Russia. One leader doesn't just dictate everything; if that were the case, Erdoğan wouldn't have lost those elections in Istanbul.
With Putin, something like that could never even happen—he'd never "lose" an election.
Lp

"The situation is heating up" — Erdogan is basically playing judo with everyone here. You have to give the Sultan credit, though; he definitely knows how to stir the pot and turn the heat up on the global stage...☕

https://www.geopolitika.news/analize...iv-sad-a-i-eu/

Amy Rogers6 said:"The situation is heating up" — Erdogan is basically playing judo with everyone here. You have to give the Sultan credit, though; he definitely knows how to stir the pot and turn the heat up on the global stage...☕

https://www.geopolitika.news/analize...iv-sad-a-i-eu/

I mean, shaking things up isn't really the issue. It's fine if you actually get something out of it, but what Erdogan is doing... it’s just a disaster for Turkey. He’s basically wiped out decades of progress for Turkish society and dragged them right back to square one. He reminds me of someone like Slobodan Maddox—the Mexicans eventually handed him over to The Hague—and at this rate, the Sultan might just end up facing a mob of his own people.

Attack on an Iraqi restaurant—two Turkish diplomats and the Turkish deputy consul are dead.

Chloe Nguyen21 said:I mean, shaking things up isn't really the issue. It's fine if you actually get something out of it, but what Erdogan is doing... it’s just a disaster for Turkey. He’s basically wiped out decades of progress for Turkish society and dragged them right back to square one. He reminds me of someone like Slobodan Maddox—the Mexicans eventually handed him over to The Hague—and at this rate, the Sultan might just end up facing a mob of his own people.

Hmm, he did lose some ground—losing grip on Istanbul was a hit—but geopolitically speaking, the Sultan is stronger than ever. I think his foreign policy could really carry him. The only real danger is the situation back home, though he weakened that too after the failed coup. Who knows how many people he threw in jail? Is there even anyone left to pull off another coup?

Amy Rogers6 said:Hmm, he did lose some ground—losing grip on Istanbul was a hit—but geopolitically speaking, the Sultan is stronger than ever. I think his foreign policy could really carry him. The only real danger is the situation back home, though he weakened that too after the failed coup. Who knows how many people he threw in jail? Is there even anyone left to pull off another coup?

The military used to be the traditional stronghold for Kemalists, but it’s been pretty much purged of any high-ranking officers loyal to Kemalism. All that's left are those who align with Erdogan's vision for Turkey. You have to hand it to him—Erdogan cleaned out the Kemalists perfectly.

Things are getting sketchy and the whole situation is spiraling. The US decided to play hardball by cutting Turkey out of the F-35 program... Honestly, I'm not sure if this is the genius move they think it is. If they can't take down Erdogan or force him to back down (which, let's be real, isn't going to happen easily), they might just end up pushing Turkey straight into the arms of Russia and China. That would be a massive strategic blow to NATO and a total disaster for US policy in the Middle East.

https://www.geopolitika.news/vijesti...akoplova-f-35/

Amy Rogers6 said:Things are getting sketchy and the whole situation is spiraling. The US decided to play hardball by cutting Turkey out of the F-35 program... Honestly, I'm not sure if this is the genius move they think it is. If they can't take down Erdogan or force him to back down (which, let's be real, isn't going to happen easily), they might just end up pushing Turkey straight into the arms of Russia and China. That would be a massive strategic blow to NATO and a total disaster for US policy in the Middle East.

https://www.geopolitika.news/vijesti...akoplova-f-35/

It’s starting to look like what I was saying before. With everyone onboard, the Turks have been cut off from the F-35 program, losing a "small" $9 billion and thousands of jobs. Meanwhile, the US is looking at losses of maybe 500-600 million, but production is shifting back to the States, creating new jobs there. A "brilliant" move by the Sultan, I guess, and this is only the beginning. If he ends up "at war" with the EU too, they might only be able to sell refrigerators and Turkish tech in places like Africa or Siberia. He could leave NATO—though it looks more likely he'll get kicked out—but then you'd have something like Greece getting all the most sophisticated Western tech, including the F-35, while the Turks just settle for whatever Russian or Chinese tech comes their way.

Amy Rogers6 said:Things are getting sketchy and the whole situation is spiraling. The US decided to play hardball by cutting Turkey out of the F-35 program... Honestly, I'm not sure if this is the genius move they think it is. If they can't take down Erdogan or force him to back down (which, let's be real, isn't going to happen easily), they might just end up pushing Turkey straight into the arms of Russia and China. That would be a massive strategic blow to NATO and a total disaster for US policy in the Middle East.

https://www.geopolitika.news/vijesti...akoplova-f-35/

Erdogan can laugh all he wants. Buying 100 of those jets would run him 50 billion once you factor in all the fixes and upgrades. You see how they’re constantly patching up bugs on this "fusion" jet? It’s pricey—like, the US Navy is already asking for another 200 million just to fix defects this year. You buy an unfinished plane, then spend forever buying extra parts just to keep it flying. Throw in the constant breakdowns and the fact that you basically have to repaint them after every flight, and there's my math. For that kind of cash, you could buy 1,000 Sukhoi Su-xx planes and actually be a powerhouse.

The US is looking at a half-billion dollar bill right out of the gate just to move production back home.

That $9 billion figure for Turkey is just the *projected revenue* over the life of the F-35 program—not necessarily lost money, provided we actually repurpose that workforce and those factories for something else down the line.

Honestly, I think the real sting will be the F-35 units they likely already paid for but now won't see. I highly doubt the US government is planning on issuing any refunds.

wiredseal7 said:The US is looking at a half-billion dollar bill right out of the gate just to move production back home.

That $9 billion figure for Turkey is just the *projected revenue* over the life of the F-35 program—not necessarily lost money, provided we actually repurpose that workforce and those factories for something else down the line.

Honestly, I think the real sting will be the F-35 units they likely already paid for but now won't see. I highly doubt the US government is planning on issuing any refunds.

Well, if an S-400 costs about half as much as a Patriot, they've essentially saved a massive fortune right there.

Given that the Turkish industry has gained some pretty incredible high-level expertise through the F-35 program—even if they never officially mention it—if Russia starts offering them joint development or production deals for the S-400 (or maybe even the S-500) which seems to be selling like hotcakes, and then throws in a pitch for some Sukhoi Su-xx aircraft... the Turks could actually turn a significant profit from all of this...

wiredseal7 said:The US is looking at a half-billion dollar bill right out of the gate just to move production back home.

That $9 billion figure for Turkey is just the *projected revenue* over the life of the F-35 program—not necessarily lost money, provided we actually repurpose that workforce and those factories for something else down the line.

Honestly, I think the real sting will be the F-35 units they likely already paid for but now won't see. I highly doubt the US government is planning on issuing any refunds.

Yeah, I guess it’s pretty likely those engineers and high-end technicians will pivot to manufacturing famous Turkish goods pretty fast... you know, peanuts, sunflower seeds, pistachios... though I suppose the real peak would be moving into baklava production.☕

Hey everyone,

Turkey is facing MASSIVE economic struggles... which explains why voters punished Erdogan at the polls, causing his party to lose its grip on the major Turkish cities like Istanbul, Izmir, and Ankara.

BTW, the Turkish Lira is basically in freefall:

Just five years ago: 1 Turkish Lira = 0.36 Euros
Today: 1 Turkish Lira = 0.16 Euros

And if I'm not mistaken, their inflation is sitting around 20% annually, which seems pretty high... ☕

Chloe Nguyen21 said:Yeah, I guess it’s pretty likely those engineers and high-end technicians will pivot to manufacturing famous Turkish goods pretty fast... you know, peanuts, sunflower seeds, pistachios... though I suppose the real peak would be moving into baklava production.☕

Look, you’re totally overshooting it here. Sure, Turkey isn't exactly Germany when it comes to high-end engineering and tech, but you're exaggerating big time. If China, Russia, or anyone else gives them the green light to develop new tech in those plants, they'll bridge that gap in no time. Knowing Erdogan's political track record, you can bet your ass he’s already dangling some bait in front of potential future partners. The guy's a damn judo master—not that I like him, far from it—but you have to admit, he’s a hell of a player.

I think the safest bet for the US is just taking out the Sultan. Things are sliding downhill fast for them—I’d wager they try something within the next year. Only this time, a coup won't work; they’ve bled too much strength over the long haul to pull that off. They'll have to play the opposition card and lean heavily on Erdogan's blatant corruption.☕

Amy Rogers6 said:Look, you’re totally overshooting it here. Sure, Turkey isn't exactly Germany when it comes to high-end engineering and tech, but you're exaggerating big time. If China, Russia, or anyone else gives them the green light to develop new tech in those plants, they'll bridge that gap in no time. Knowing Erdogan's political track record, you can bet your ass he’s already dangling some bait in front of potential future partners. The guy's a damn judo master—not that I like him, far from it—but you have to admit, he’s a hell of a player.

I think the safest bet for the US is just taking out the Sultan. Things are sliding downhill fast for them—I’d wager they try something within the next year. Only this time, a coup won't work; they’ve bled too much strength over the long haul to pull that off. They'll have to play the opposition card and lean heavily on Erdogan's blatant corruption.☕

They've got their own defense industry anyway—helicopters, drones, missiles, they even put together those F-16s of theirs—so they'll find work, if not for others, then for themselves. Unless, of course, we're talking about gear that's too niche and useful only for the American military-industrial complex.

Trump is playing a similar game now, like he did with China. But people have seen his playbook by now. A little stick first, then the carrot—an invitation to the negotiating table; basically, "hey, maybe you could sell or return that S-400 so we can actually talk."😬 An attempt at regime change seems unlikely though—that probably won't go down easy since the Sultan will be watching his back after everything. Not before the next elections, anyway.