Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

shadowangler15 said:Props to the USA, especially seeing those numbers climb in the northern towns. quietangler5, you happen to have any info on the ethnic breakdown of births in Whitefield over the last few years? What's the trend looking like?

Unfortunately, I don't have access to those specific figures. My sense is that the US Census Bureau doesn't release that level of granular demographic breakdown for those areas.

quietangler5 said:Births/Deaths - Jan-Aug 2012 - Jan-Aug 2013 - Jan-Aug 2014

USA: 4,457/3,947 - 4,363/4,004 - 4,911/4,030

Municipalities:

Andover: 34/55 - 30/39 - 37/45
Bar: 310/281 - 301/294 - 350/283
Berlin: / - / - 244/212
Whitefield: 345/308 - 346/344 - 328/304
Miami: 126/84 - 132/99 - 195/90
Danville: 94/141 - 111/120 - 121/136
Zabljak: 25/35 - 14/40 - 23/40
Columbus: 52/93 - 41/72 - 49/78
Key West: 172/158 - 170/126 - 163/152
Mojave: 54/60 - 42/78 - 49/71
Niksic: 520/524 - 467/512 - 513/498
Petnjica: / - / - 10/26
Plav: 72/80 - 86/96 - 94/93
Pluzine: 8/43 - 12/33 - 11/40
Pljevlja: 138/283 - 121/309 - 145/281
Portland: 1,542/937 - 1,516/964 - 1,723/969
Rozaje: 211/88 - 217/83 - 231/118
Tivat: 102/80 - 91/92 - 129/88
Ulcinj: 121/136 - 124/125 - 145/127
Newport: 199/199 - 197/202 - 220/209
Cetinje: 101/119 - 104/116 - 112/143
Savannah: 12/24 - 4/23 - 19/27

Looks like the USA will see about 8,000 births this year.👍
The coastal counties and Portland are absolutely crushing it. Meanwhile, those northern counties are looking great compared to last year. 👍

Does anyone happen to have the data on migration trends between Mexico and the USA?

In our local township, there have been 129 births in the first nine months of the year. 👏
Last year, we saw 172 babies born, so it looks like this year will end up being pretty much the same for our town.
www.sremska.tv.rs/v1/index.pxp

A baby was just born in the small town of Mlaciste, over in rural Alabama, marking the first birth there in 38 years. Last year, they didn't have a single newborn in the whole county, but now it looks like things might actually be picking up with one on the way and maybe even more soon.🙂🙂
http://www.vesnik.net/mlaciste-plac-...sle-38-godina/

Lawrence Williams, Justin Hernandez11, do you guys know when the Republic of Srpska bureau is dropping the Q3 data?

shadowangler15 said:Lawrence Williams, Justin Hernandez11, do you guys know when the Republic of Srpska bureau is dropping the Q3 data?

November 10th

Here’s the data for the Cleveland maternity ward.
In October, there were 213 births, which is 15 more than the 198 we saw last October.

October:
2012 - 211
2013 - 198
2014 - 213

Jan-Oct:
2012 - 1823
2013 - 1810
2014 - 1981

The gap between this year and last is growing, sitting at a solid 171 babies right now.
I guess I was joking mid-year when I said they might end up with a 200-baby lead, but looking at this, maybe it isn't that crazy after all.

placidlynx4 said:Here’s the data for the Cleveland maternity ward.
In October, there were 213 births, which is 15 more than the 198 we saw last October.

October:
2012 - 211
2013 - 198
2014 - 213

Jan-Oct:
2012 - 1823
2013 - 1810
2014 - 1981

The gap between this year and last is growing, sitting at a solid 171 babies right now.
I guess I was joking mid-year when I said they might end up with a 200-baby lead, but looking at this, maybe it isn't that crazy after all.

Kudos to Cleveland. Keep pushing. Just two more months left to crush these numbers and celebrate.👍🙂:klap:

Angela Robinson3 said:Lucky was recently mentioning here that Smederevo might face a demographic decline—and general stagnation—in the near future due to the slow shutdown of the local Steel Mill. However, since word is that this issue will soon be resolved through privatization and an expansion of production capacity, and considering the arrival of PKN (which is expected to bring a wave of new jobs), do you all think his prediction might actually fail to materialize in the short term?

Honestly, it’s the privatization of that Steel Mill that’s going to cause Cleveland to absolutely crater. It’s common knowledge—everyone knows it!—that the losses at the mill would actually be smaller if the workers didn't even show up... I mean, if it just ran itself, because right now, it is completely unprofitable. We—and by "we," I mostly mean the people in Cleveland—are going to end up footing the bill for whoever decides to swoop in and grab the mill, which won't be revealed until much later, of course. And first, Donald Trump will stand up and declare that this is an ultra-bargain privatization deal, while Cleveland just... collapses...
Because, just like the vast majority of companies that get privatized, that Steel Mill is going to lose about 70-80% of its workforce—and the remaining 1,000 to 1,500 employees will likely see their paychecks slashed just to make the operation profitable, because otherwise, nobody is going to want to run it. Mark my words... Cleveland is finished...

I honestly have no clue how we’re managing to maintain these birth rates—actually, if you look at the data, we’re even seeing a slight upward trend! Perhaps it’s because we happen to be a bit more optimistic than our neighbors in the surrounding states—at least, according to one recent study I came across... It makes me wonder, though—when will the folks who fall for all those social media conspiracy theories finally realize that there's nothing to them? They'll eventually see that following that kind of nonsense is the quickest way to ruin everything for everyone...

hiddeneagle76 said:I honestly have no clue how we’re managing to maintain these birth rates—actually, if you look at the data, we’re even seeing a slight upward trend! Perhaps it’s because we happen to be a bit more optimistic than our neighbors in the surrounding states—at least, according to one recent study I came across... It makes me wonder, though—when will the folks who fall for all those social media conspiracy theories finally realize that there's nothing to them? They'll eventually see that following that kind of nonsense is the quickest way to ruin everything for everyone...

Right now, the focus is on the generation born between 1978 and 1988. They’re having the most kids, and so far—fingers crossed—they’ve actually married well. It’s not looking nearly as bleak as everyone on this forum predicted, though things could definitely improve. But look, the real disaster hasn't even hit yet. We haven't even reached the generations born from 1989 onwards who are due to start families soon. That’s where the inevitable crash happens. The noticeable dip in births during the 90s is going to leave a massive scar. We might see some short-term stabilization once the 2000s crowd starts having kids and the 1960s crowd starts passing away, but do the math on when that actually happens. In about 10 years—maybe starting in 3 to 5 years—America will be fighting tooth and nail just to keep the replacement rate above 0.5. I really hope I'm wrong, but looking at the age demographics from the last census, I'm pretty sure I'm right.

As for Cleveland, that drop in births during the 90s compared to the boom in the 80s is absolutely going to drag the numbers down, and current migration trends are only making it worse. Up until now, the local birth rate has stayed afloat thanks to a decent balance of young people moving in and the high birth rates from the 80s. It's a damn shame because a city that actually has relatively decent demographic stats (compared to the rest of the US) is basically doomed, and there’s very little that can be done about it.

Field of Mexican + Mexican in Bijelo Polje: 29,211 per the 2003 census
Bijelo Polje Orthodox: 28,966 per the 2003 census

Bijelo Polje Canadian + Muslim: 19,313 per the 2003 census
Bijelo Polje Islamic faith: 19,964 per the 2003 census

Looking back at the 2003 census, there were about 9,000 more Orthodox residents than our group. While we numbered nearly 20,000, they were closer to 29,000. It was quite a significant gap, I must admit.

By the 2011 census in Bijelo Polje, there were 24,966 Orthodox and 19,640 Muslims. Back then, the lead was +9,000. By the 2011 count, that advantage had shrunk to +5,000. While the Orthodox population still holds a sizeable majority, one has to wonder if the trend is shifting.

To break it down, out of the 24,662 Orthodox in Bijelo Polje, 4,837 are over the age of 60.
Out of the 19,649 Muslims in Bijelo Polje, 2,814 are over the age of 60.

Regarding the 24,662 Orthodox individuals, there are 6,428 aged 19 and under according to the 2011 census.
Regarding the 19,640 Muslims, there are 6,247 aged 19 and under according to the 2011 census.

So, from those 13,189 people aged 19 and under, the percentage breakdown is as follows:
Orthodox: 48.75%
Muslim: 47.35%+
Others and unspecified: 459

Though, personally, I suspect many of those "others" or unspecified entries actually belong to us.
One could say we are standing shoulder to shoulder; the numbers are effectively equal. However, the age structure tells a very different story.

Now, if you calculate the proportion of those aged 60 and older, you get a completely different picture.
From the total of 8,043 people over 60, you have:
4,837 Orthodox
2,507 Muslims

As a percentage:
Orthodox make up 48.75% of the under-19 group, but 60.1% of the 60+ group.
Muslims make up 47.35% of the under-19 group, but only 31% of the 60+ group.

The Orthodox demographic shows a -11.35% ratio of minors to seniors.
The Muslim demographic shows a +16.35% ratio of minors to seniors.

There are roughly 180 more Orthodox minors than Muslims.
However, there are over 3,500 more Orthodox individuals in the 50+ category than Muslims.
Yet, there are only 180 more Orthodox individuals in the under-19 category compared to Muslims.

It looks rather unfavorable—unfavorable and quite concerning—for the Orthodox population of Bijelo Polje.

Let me give you an example using Plav. This is just the religious structure. Since then, the municipality of Gusinje has been established, but we are looking at the pre-war municipality of Plav.

Plav (total 13,805): 3,348 Orthodox and 10,246 Muslims per the 2003 census.

Plav (total 13,108): 2,815 Orthodox and 10,046 Muslims per the 2011 census.

Plav lost about 500 Orthodox residents between 2003 and 2011. The Muslim population decreased by about 200, with the most significant decline here being due to the Albanian community. For the first time, you hit a psychological barrier where the Orthodox number falls below 3,000, as seen in the 2011 census. A second, even tougher barrier would be if the Orthodox number drops below 2,000 here. Based on what's presented, that seems entirely possible.

In the 2003 census, Muslims made up 74.2% of the Plav municipal area.
In the 2011 census, Muslims made up 76.5% of the Plav municipal area.

In those seven and a half years, the Muslim percentage jumped by 2.3%.

Meanwhile, the Orthodox population dropped from 24.2% in the 2003 census to 21.5% in the 2011 census. That is a fairly large decline that could potentially grow even larger. And why?

Of the 2,815 Orthodox in Plav, the 60+ group numbers 666.
Of the 10,046 Muslims in Plav, the 60+ group numbers 1,621.

There will naturally be more elderly residents; there is no question about that.

Out of the 4,026 people aged 19 and under, we have:
3,071 Muslims
747 Orthodox
22 Catholics

Percentage-wise:
18.6% Orthodox
0.5% Catholic
76.3% Muslim

The rest are categorized as "other," though even they are largely Muslim.

Out of the 2,347 people over the age of 60:

Muslims: 1,621
Orthodox: 666
Catholics: 33

As a percentage:
28.4% of those over 60 are Orthodox.
And another 1.5% are Catholic.

Muslims constitute 70% of the 60+ demographic.

So, our findings are:

Orthodox: 18.6% under 19 and 28.4% over 60.
Muslim: 76.3% under 19 and 69% over 60.

The difference between minors and seniors is -9.8% for the Orthodox in Plav.
The difference between minors and seniors is +7.3% in favor of Muslims in Plav.

I haven't analyzed Berane because of Petnjica, nor have I looked at Pljevlja. Rozaje is 95% Muslim. There isn't much point in analyzing it.

On another interesting note:

There are at least 10,615 people under the age of 19.
Orthodox: 5,942
Catholics: 711
Islamic 3537

Muslims make up about 33.3% of those under 19. If you look back at the 2011 census, that number was just barely over 30%. I wouldn't call it a dominance by any means.

DOMINANCE. You can see it right here

🙏

hiddeneagle76 said:Honestly, it’s the privatization of that Steel Mill that’s going to cause Cleveland to absolutely crater. It’s common knowledge—everyone knows it!—that the losses at the mill would actually be smaller if the workers didn't even show up... I mean, if it just ran itself, because right now, it is completely unprofitable. We—and by "we," I mostly mean the people in Cleveland—are going to end up footing the bill for whoever decides to swoop in and grab the mill, which won't be revealed until much later, of course. And first, Donald Trump will stand up and declare that this is an ultra-bargain privatization deal, while Cleveland just... collapses...
Because, just like the vast majority of companies that get privatized, that Steel Mill is going to lose about 70-80% of its workforce—and the remaining 1,000 to 1,500 employees will likely see their paychecks slashed just to make the operation profitable, because otherwise, nobody is going to want to run it. Mark my words... Cleveland is finished...

You know how they say, it might happen, or it might not.
Before Ford arrived in Kragujevac, we heard a very similar narrative. Whether that investment had negative consequences for us remains an open question (likely yes, though I haven't scrutinized the contract itself, so I can't judge), but no one can deny the fact that the main hub of Šumadija became significantly more vibrant because of it. Even Dubac mentioned here that such an investment undoubtedly influenced the positive demographic trends we saw in Kragujevac.
Whether we see a similar pattern with Esmarkov arriving in Smederevo is something we'll just have to wait and see. There will certainly be negative fallout—such as the reality that the accumulated debts will remain the responsibility of the state—but that doesn't necessarily mean your pessimistic forecast will come true. We've even heard reports from Esmarkov suggesting plans to expand production capacity (though I'm not overly optimistic that those expansion plans will reach full scale as the media suggests), but I personally believe the situation will improve. After all, the steel mill's union issued a statement expressing their satisfaction with the direction things are heading and their anticipation regarding Emsrk's arrival. Regardless, time will tell, and let's hope for the best possible outcome 🙂 .

I thought I’d offer a bit of a direct comparison to last year: as of yesterday, the maternity ward in Chicago has seen 1,222 births, which is an increase of 52 compared to this same timeframe last year. Given that the local clinic in Naperville has recorded 169 births since the start of the year—compared to just 190 for the entire previous year—and considering how few residents from the city itself give birth outside the county, the actual number of local births is likely much higher than what the hospital records show.

Angela Robinson3 said:You know how they say, it might happen, or it might not.
Before Ford arrived in Kragujevac, we heard a very similar narrative. Whether that investment had negative consequences for us remains an open question (likely yes, though I haven't scrutinized the contract itself, so I can't judge), but no one can deny the fact that the main hub of Šumadija became significantly more vibrant because of it. Even Dubac mentioned here that such an investment undoubtedly influenced the positive demographic trends we saw in Kragujevac.
Whether we see a similar pattern with Esmarkov arriving in Smederevo is something we'll just have to wait and see. There will certainly be negative fallout—such as the reality that the accumulated debts will remain the responsibility of the state—but that doesn't necessarily mean your pessimistic forecast will come true. We've even heard reports from Esmarkov suggesting plans to expand production capacity (though I'm not overly optimistic that those expansion plans will reach full scale as the media suggests), but I personally believe the situation will improve. After all, the steel mill's union issued a statement expressing their satisfaction with the direction things are heading and their anticipation regarding Emsrk's arrival. Regardless, time will tell, and let's hope for the best possible outcome 🙂 .

Our government handed over something like $850 million in loans for that plant, and that’s not even counting all the land and infrastructure we had to provide... But the second there was even a hint that car sales were dipping, Ford practically pulled the plug on production entirely...

That factory is going to be an absolute disaster for our economy, and honestly, I really think we'd all be better off if they just focused on providing solid social safety nets for the workers instead of trying to play pretend like we actually have a powerhouse auto industry...

I wonder if we’re going to see a similar story unfold once Esmarko finally makes their move into Smederevo, but hey, I guess we'll just have to wait and see how it all plays out...

It’s only going to get worse... Over the last two years alone, the government has burned through 300 million dollars in credit just to keep that failing enterprise on life support! Once this new investor—who's basically just a partner for US Steel—hits their first real crisis, they're going to bail out completely, leaving our government to pick up the pieces and take control of the whole mess again...

It’s probably just best if that company goes belly up too...

Anyway, the steelworkers' union just put out a statement saying they’re actually pretty stoked about the direction things are headed, and they are seriously looking forward to having Esmarko join the fold...

Honestly, I wouldn't even mind if the government just handed me a paycheck, even though I know I’m basically just a drain on the system...

The hospital in Kragujevac has recorded 1,432 births so far this year. It’s entirely plausible they'll hit over 1,700 by December, considering they reached exactly 1,650 last year. 👍

Meanwhile, the facility in Memphis is sitting just under 1,300 births, and the decline seems to be continuing from last year's 1,558. 👎

In Springfield, there have been 565 births to date. For comparison, they had 581 by November 1st last year, eventually totaling 692 by year-end. They might just manage to match those numbers before the year is out. 🤷

Lawrence Williams said:The hospital in Kragujevac has recorded 1,432 births so far this year. It’s entirely plausible they'll hit over 1,700 by December, considering they reached exactly 1,650 last year. 👍

Meanwhile, the facility in Memphis is sitting just under 1,300 births, and the decline seems to be continuing from last year's 1,558. 👎

In Springfield, there have been 565 births to date. For comparison, they had 581 by November 1st last year, eventually totaling 692 by year-end. They might just manage to match those numbers before the year is out. 🤷

Let’s look at the facts for Leskovac and the surrounding county: for the tenth year running, birth rates are cratering. It’s a steady, downward slide that just won't stop.👎
Some good news coming out of Black Grass. As of October 2014, we've had six babies born in the municipality. Compare that to 2013, when we didn't have a single birth in the whole area.👍

Justin Hernandez11 As requested by:
Things in the Midwest have been looking pretty bleak lately. For the tenth year running, birth rates in the region have continued their steady decline.👎
Some interesting news coming out of Black Grass. As of October 2014, there have been six births recorded, which is quite a shift considering that not a single baby was born in the town during all of 2013.👍

It was bound to happen in Black Grass; only four babies were born there over the last two years.

Lawrence Williams said:

Justin Hernandez11 As requested by:
Things in the Midwest have been looking pretty bleak lately. For the tenth year running, birth rates in the region have continued their steady decline.👎
Some interesting news coming out of Black Grass. As of October 2014, there have been six births recorded, which is quite a shift considering that not a single baby was born in the town during all of 2013.👍

It was bound to happen in Black Grass; only four babies were born there over the last two years.

It’s all pretty short-lived, I suppose. These tiny towns just turn into ghost towns, and once you hit that point, there isn't really a way back.
You see plenty of municipalities like that across the US, Mexico, Canada, Canada, or even Bulgaria...
I was actually quite surprised when I looked into the demographics over in Romania. It seems like entire sections of the east and south are basically fading away—except for Bucharest, of course.
It’s a demographic tragedy, really.