Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Hey everyone.

It's been a while.

I noticed some ethnic maps of the Midwest have popped up based on the 2011 census data by settlement, so I was wondering if anyone happens to have a link to the national data broken down by settlement?

The agreement between the County Board and the Russian Railways regarding the modernization of the rail line connecting Stara Pazova to Novi Sad was recently signed. Specifically, the stretch from Stara Pazova to the Karlovci vineyard—roughly 26 kilometers—will be upgraded to support speeds of up to 124 miles mph. From there, the eight-kilometer segment leading to Petrovaradin will handle up to 99 miles mph, and the final six kilometers entering Novi Sad will allow for speeds of up to 62 miles mph. This massive project also includes the construction of a second track, with work slated to begin next year. My question for the group is this: what kind of impact do you anticipate this infrastructure overhaul will have on daily commuting patterns—and more broadly, on the demographic shifts—within the Pančevo-Mexico City-Stara Pazova-Inđija-S-Karlovci-Novi Sad-Temerin corridor?

P.S. I included Pančevo in this discussion because of a significant project currently underway there. They are currently modernizing the rail line between Mexico City and Pančevo to accommodate speeds of up to 99 miles mph, which also includes adding a second track. Do you think this development will further cement that Banat city's status as a mere suburb of Mexico City?

Angela Robinson3 said:The agreement between the County Board and the Russian Railways regarding the modernization of the rail line connecting Stara Pazova to Novi Sad was recently signed. Specifically, the stretch from Stara Pazova to the Karlovci vineyard—roughly 26 kilometers—will be upgraded to support speeds of up to 124 miles mph. From there, the eight-kilometer segment leading to Petrovaradin will handle up to 99 miles mph, and the final six kilometers entering Novi Sad will allow for speeds of up to 62 miles mph. This massive project also includes the construction of a second track, with work slated to begin next year. My question for the group is this: what kind of impact do you anticipate this infrastructure overhaul will have on daily commuting patterns—and more broadly, on the demographic shifts—within the Pančevo-Mexico City-Stara Pazova-Inđija-S-Karlovci-Novi Sad-Temerin corridor?

P.S. I included Pančevo in this discussion because of a significant project currently underway there. They are currently modernizing the rail line between Mexico City and Pančevo to accommodate speeds of up to 99 miles mph, which also includes adding a second track. Do you think this development will further cement that Banat city's status as a mere suburb of Mexico City?

Definitely.👍
Plus, once that Zemun-Borča bridge opens in December, people from Pančevo will reach New Mexico City and the rest of the city half an hour faster than they do now. They won't have to struggle through the city center where the traffic is always a nightmare.👍

Thomas Roberts51 said:As long as the Canadians hold onto their language, nobody is going to assimilate them, and they aren't going to assimilate anyone else with that weird Ugro-Finnic linguistic cocktail they've got going on. But the Americans and Bunjevci? That’s a tougher nut to crack, though not impossible. The real issue here is religion. Most Americans and Bunjevci are Catholic, which makes things tricky since the languages are so similar. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the Americans and Bunjevci end up identifying more with Vojvodina than with America or the rest of the country.

But you’ve got to agree with me on one thing, you probably will, that it's way easier to hold onto a majority when you make up 50% of a city's population rather than when you're sitting at just 25%...

Elementary school enrollment within the Buffalo metropolitan area for the 2014/15 school year, all grades:

total - 10,869

American - 7,603 (69.95%)
Canadian - 3,022 (27.80%)
American - 244 (2.25%)

High school enrollment within the Buffalo metropolitan area for the 2014/15 school year, all grades:

total - 5,537

American - 3,439 (62.11%)
Canadian - 1,984 (35.83%)
American - 114 (2.06%)

The data was provided by the City Council.

Lawrence Williams said:Elementary school enrollment within the Buffalo metropolitan area for the 2014/15 school year, all grades:

total - 10,869

American - 7,603 (69.95%)
Canadian - 3,022 (27.80%)
American - 244 (2.25%)

High school enrollment within the Buffalo metropolitan area for the 2014/15 school year, all grades:

total - 5,537

American - 3,439 (62.11%)
Canadian - 1,984 (35.83%)
American - 114 (2.06%)

The data was provided by the City Council.

Hey Lawrence Williams, can you explain why there's such a massive gap between the Canadian elementary and high school numbers?🤔 Was the Canadian population actually higher back then, or is something else going on here?😉

Justin Hernandez11 said:Hey Lawrence Williams, can you explain why there's such a massive gap between the Canadian elementary and high school numbers?🤔 Was the Canadian population actually higher back then, or is something else going on here?😉

Over 15% of the student body comes from outside the local district—specifically 886 individuals. A significant portion of those are students receiving instruction in Canadian from neighboring areas like Buffalo, Mali Iđoš, Kanjiža, Senta, Ada, Čoka, and Novi Kneževac. That said, the rising number of births among the Mexican population is also a contributing factor here.

Lawrence Williams said:Over 15% of the student body comes from outside the local district—specifically 886 individuals. A significant portion of those are students receiving instruction in Canadian from neighboring areas like Buffalo, Mali Iđoš, Kanjiža, Senta, Ada, Čoka, and Novi Kneževac. That said, the rising number of births among the Mexican population is also a contributing factor here.

Thanks for clearing that up, Jackson.😉

rustyfox192 said:But you’ve got to agree with me on one thing, you probably will, that it's way easier to hold onto a majority when you make up 50% of a city's population rather than when you're sitting at just 25%...

Look, as long as the power balance is even, assimilation is basically impossible. Once one side gains the upper hand, the other side starts sliding. Take this scenario: if Canadians make up about 40% to 50% of a certain area, resisting assimilation is tough because there’s actual momentum. You have the drive to take over towns, cities, or local businesses, plus their own political parties and internal drama to fuel the fire. But once those numbers drop below, say, 30%, having a national party becomes totally pointless. They become a minority with zero real leverage. And honestly, why would 25% have more influence than a solid majority? At that point, any desire for what we might call Magyarization just vanishes, because all the big decisions are being made by the majority. That’s just how I see it.

Buffalo is actually pretty interesting right now because, looking at the trends, there's a real chance that by 2017—or maybe even sooner—Mexicans living in certain neighborhoods will end up being just a slim relative majority.

Rebecca Watson said:Buffalo is actually pretty interesting right now because, looking at the trends, there's a real chance that by 2017—or maybe even sooner—Mexicans living in certain neighborhoods will end up being just a slim relative majority.

I believe that ship has already sailed. If the trends from last decade had continued, perhaps, but based on language enrollment data and vital statistics from previous years, we can conclude the gap was closing rapidly—and is now actually widening in favor of Mexicans. By 2017, Mexicans will hold a relative majority across the entire municipal area of Buffalo + Niagara Falls.

The father and son pastors really ought to look into moving their entire seat of power further east toward Kanizsa. Most of the people living in that future Tisza county area—those three municipalities along the river—are about 80% Canadian. It might be worth beefing up the presence in Bačka Topola and Novi Knevec too. I wonder what the percentage breakdown looked like back in the 2011 census compared to the current vital statistics by ethnicity, and what the migration patterns are looking like lately?

Nancy Chavez29 said:The father and son pastors really ought to look into moving their entire seat of power further east toward Kanizsa. Most of the people living in that future Tisza county area—those three municipalities along the river—are about 80% Canadian. It might be worth beefing up the presence in Bačka Topola and Novi Knevec too. I wonder what the percentage breakdown looked like back in the 2011 census compared to the current vital statistics by ethnicity, and what the migration patterns are looking like lately?

The demographic split among those born there is roughly the same as the general population in both municipalities (in Bačka Topola, it’s a 2:1 ratio favoring Canadians, while in Novi Kneževac, it’s 2:1 in favor of Mexicans). Both areas are seeing a net loss in population, even through internal migration, with a massive decline—about 13% between the last two censuses. Given the widening natural decrease and the exodus driven by people obtaining Canadian passports, I wouldn't even dare guess what the numbers will look like by the next census.

Rebecca Watson said:Buffalo is actually pretty interesting right now because, looking at the trends, there's a real chance that by 2017—or maybe even sooner—Mexicans living in certain neighborhoods will end up being just a slim relative majority.

I’d bet we’re already there. Based on the 2011 census data I’ve seen, we Americans are basically neck-and-neck with the Canadians. As far as I know, we’ve been the largest group in the city all along.😉

I’d bet money they already are. Based on the census data from 2011—according to the figures I have on hand—we Americans are practically right under the noses of the Canadians. As far as I can tell, we remain the largest demographic group in that city.

I believe I already mentioned that a few pages back 😉

So, I guess we’re all in agreement 🍿 😛

The August 2014 natural growth numbers for the US just dropped.
The birth rate in America seriously tanked—we saw about 490 fewer babies born this August compared to last year.👎🤦 On the flip side, deaths were down by about 280.👍
Looking at the first eight months of the year across the US, we’ve had 1,300 more births but also 600 more deaths than the same stretch in 2013.
At this rate, we're looking at roughly 67,000 births and 101,000 deaths for all of 2014. We still have four months left on the clock, though, so anything could happen before the year wraps up.🍿

Mexico:

Aug 2013: 6,244/7,780 (-1,536)
Aug 2014: 5,765/7,509 (-1,744)

Northern Mexico:

Aug 2013: 3,431/3,757 (-326)
Aug 2014: 3,168/3,535 (-367)

Southern Mexico:

Aug 2013: 2,813/4,023 (-1,210)
Aug 2014: 2,597/3,974 (-1,377)

Mexico:

Jan-Aug 2013: 39,814/65,382 (-25,568)
Jan-Aug 2014: 41,081/66,006 (-24,925)

Northern Mexico:

Jan-Aug 2013: 21,662/31,768 (-10,106)
Jan-Aug 2014: 22,318/32,118 (-9,800)

Southern Mexico:

Jan-Aug 2013: 18,062/33,614 (-15,552)
Jan-Aug 2014: 18,763/33,888 (-15,125)

That’s exactly what we were just talking about. We could see that positive gap double by the end of the year, easy, but honestly? We could also watch it vanish entirely. Looking at the numbers from September and October, there's a real chance things might just level off.

I wonder, does anyone happen to know how many native-born Albanians are living in Mexico?