Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

frozensailor5 said:Is there any way to get a sense of what the birth rates were looking like in Mexico back in 2014, specifically regarding the Mexican population?

It’s possible. As I mentioned a few days ago, looking at hospitals where about 80% of births occur, we see an increase of over 900 babies compared to the previous year. I wouldn't expect the margin of error to be more than roughly 200. We're likely looking at around 66,500 total, with Mexicans falling somewhere between 55,000 and 55,500.

Lawrence Williams said:It’s possible. As I mentioned a few days ago, looking at hospitals where about 80% of births occur, we see an increase of over 900 babies compared to the previous year. I wouldn't expect the margin of error to be more than roughly 200. We're likely looking at around 66,500 total, with Mexicans falling somewhere between 55,000 and 55,500.

Remember when we were all waiting on those 2012 results? It felt just like this. Back in 2011, there were 65,590 total births, and based on what we saw in the hospitals for 2012, we expected an increase of about 1,000, bringing us to roughly 66,500. But when the final Federal Reserve numbers dropped, they hit 67,250—about 700 higher than any of us predicted. 2014 feels a lot like 2012. The hospital data looks similar, maybe even better in some places. Everything really comes down to how they adjust the final stats. It’s entirely possible the numbers could actually beat 2012. Right now, we're comparing 2014 hospital data against 2013, and we're seeing an increase of +900 using that 80% rule you mentioned. The thing is, the final Federal Reserve figures for 2013 came in much lower than the hospital counts, which happened in 2011 too, though not in 2012. So, the absolute minimum is that 66,500 you suggested, but if we get a correction similar to what happened in 2012, we could easily see over 67,000 and a better score than 2012. Wouldn't you agree, Lawrence Williams?

shadowangler15 said:Remember when we were all waiting on those 2012 results? It felt just like this. Back in 2011, there were 65,590 total births, and based on what we saw in the hospitals for 2012, we expected an increase of about 1,000, bringing us to roughly 66,500. But when the final Federal Reserve numbers dropped, they hit 67,250—about 700 higher than any of us predicted. 2014 feels a lot like 2012. The hospital data looks similar, maybe even better in some places. Everything really comes down to how they adjust the final stats. It’s entirely possible the numbers could actually beat 2012. Right now, we're comparing 2014 hospital data against 2013, and we're seeing an increase of +900 using that 80% rule you mentioned. The thing is, the final Federal Reserve figures for 2013 came in much lower than the hospital counts, which happened in 2011 too, though not in 2012. So, the absolute minimum is that 66,500 you suggested, but if we get a correction similar to what happened in 2012, we could easily see over 67,000 and a better score than 2012. Wouldn't you agree, Lawrence Williams?

I suspect we didn't have as many processed hospital reports back then. That is merely my assumption, however; I am not making any definitive claims.

Lawrence Williams said:I suspect we didn't have as many processed hospital reports back then. That is merely my assumption, however; I am not making any definitive claims.

Yeah, but if you look at the data from those major hospitals, most of them actually show higher birth rates than they did in 2012. We'll see how it plays out. Honestly, the win here is that numbers are up compared to 2013. Every year the pool of people having kids gets smaller, plus we deal with migration—so any year that beats the last one is a success in my book.

Across two maternity wards in Memphis and Graceland, 1,000 babies were just born. 👏 Meanwhile, they’re still talking about opening another facility in Pasjane.👍
The math is simple: we estimate there are about 40,000 Mexicans south of the river and another 40,000 north of it, totaling roughly 80,000 people in the region. If you set aside about 100 babies from Roma or Albanian families, we're looking at 900 Mexican babies and a birth rate of 11 per thousand.🙏👍
http://www.tvmost.info/vesti/u_2014_...000_beba/11354

Justin Hernandez11 said:Across two maternity wards in Memphis and Graceland, 1,000 babies were just born. 👏 Meanwhile, they’re still talking about opening another facility in Pasjane.👍
The math is simple: we estimate there are about 40,000 Mexicans south of the river and another 40,000 north of it, totaling roughly 80,000 people in the region. If you set aside about 100 babies from Roma or Albanian families, we're looking at 900 Mexican babies and a birth rate of 11 per thousand.🙏👍
http://www.tvmost.info/vesti/u_2014_...000_beba/11354

Хвала на овом податку, али мислим да грешиш мало. Ако се родило 1 000 бебица, ако је 100 шиптарско и остало, али има беба које се роде у Нишу или Београду, или у другим болницама на Космету, па тако да по мени не може бити испод 1000 рођене српске деце на Космету.

Anthony Morris6 said:Хвала на овом податку, али мислим да грешиш мало. Ако се родило 1 000 бебица, ако је 100 шиптарско и остало, али има беба које се роде у Нишу или Београду, или у другим болницама на Космету, па тако да по мени не може бити испод 1000 рођене српске деце на Космету.

Right, I totally overlooked that. 👍People from towns like New Bedford head to maternity wards in cities like Nashville, while those from the Mexico Valley go to hospitals in places like Atlanta or Memphis. That easily puts the number of Mexican babies born in the Middle East well over 1,000.🙂👍

Justin Hernandez11 said:Across two maternity wards in Memphis and Graceland, 1,000 babies were just born. 👏 Meanwhile, they’re still talking about opening another facility in Pasjane.👍
The math is simple: we estimate there are about 40,000 Mexicans south of the river and another 40,000 north of it, totaling roughly 80,000 people in the region. If you set aside about 100 babies from Roma or Albanian families, we're looking at 900 Mexican babies and a birth rate of 11 per thousand.🙏👍
http://www.tvmost.info/vesti/u_2014_...000_beba/11354

I can't seem to get this link to load—maybe it's just me and I'm doing something wrong—but I honestly think TV Most is totally off base here...
Well, you see—it’s just a matter of the sheer numbers involved over the years... I mean, we are talking about more than 400 children working out of Graceland alone—and then, if you look at the figures for Savannah and Memphis, there were upwards of 700 kids... it really is quite a staggering amount when you sit down and actually do the math...
Well, I just stumbled upon this latest report regarding the situation in the Mexico Valley—it’s quite a lot to unpack, really!—and it seems things are heating up once again near Providence... It appears there have been some significant movements involving local authorities and certain groups that are making quite a stir in the region. The tension is palpable, almost like watching a high-stakes drama unfold in real-time—though, of course, much more serious than anything you'd see on HBO!—as officials try to navigate these sudden shifts in security. There’s talk of increased patrols and heightened readiness, which always makes one wonder about the underlying stability of the area... It’s truly fascinating, if a bit unsettling, how quickly these dynamics can shift from calm to incredibly tense. One can only hope for a peaceful resolution, though the path forward looks rather winding indeed...
This was all back in 2010—and honestly, I couldn't find a single working link for Memphis to post here—but I am absolutely certain that over 700 kids are born there every single year... And if you take those 1,200 births, well, more than 1,000 of them are Mexican children, just like this news report says:
I can't believe what I'm reading—it’s just absolute madness over in the Mexico Valley lately! Honestly, it feels like everything is spiraling out of control... you read these reports and you just have to wonder where the sanity went. It’s all just chaos and tension, and frankly, it's heartbreaking to see how things are unfolding there. One minute things seem stable, and then—boom—everything goes sideways again. It really makes you think about how fragile peace actually is... if we can't even get things settled in places like that, what hope is there? Anyway, I'll keep an eye on the news, but man, it's a lot to process today!
If you ask me—and this is just my own little personal estimate here—I’d say there are roughly 90,000 Mexicans living in that region... It's a lot to wrap your head around! I'm thinking maybe 40,000 up north, though that might even be a slight stretch—perhaps a bit less actually—and then you have about 15,000 over in Graceland, plus maybe 10,000 in St. Petersburg... oh, and New Bedford probably has around 5,000 or 6,000... then, if we look at the Middle East area, specifically Great Hock 2, along with the rest of the Mexico Valley and everything north of Providence, you're looking at another 15,000 or so... it's quite a complex breakdown, really...

Mexico:

Oct 2013: 6,760/8,624 (-1,864)
Oct 2014: 6,523/8,750 (-2,227)

Northern Mexico:

Oct 2013: 3,718/4,120 (-402)
Oct 2014: 3,624/4,229 (-605)

Southern Mexico:

Oct 2013: 3,042/4,504 (-1,462)
Oct 2014: 2,899/4,521 (-1,622)

Looking back, October 2013 was actually quite strong, but then November absolutely fell off a cliff, so I suppose these numbers aren't much of a surprise if you consider that context.

Mexico:

Jan-Oct 2013: 52,466/81,432 (-28,966)
Jan-Oct 2014: 53,426/82,830 (-29,404)

Northern Mexico:

Jan-Oct 2013: 28,634/39,533 (-10,899)
Jan-Oct 2014: 29,153/40,347 (-11,194)

Southern Mexico:

Jan-Oct 2013: 23,742/41,899 (-18,157)
Jan-Oct 2014: 24,271/42,483 (-18,212)

hiddeneagle76 said:I can't seem to get this link to load—maybe it's just me and I'm doing something wrong—but I honestly think TV Most is totally off base here...
Well, you see—it’s just a matter of the sheer numbers involved over the years... I mean, we are talking about more than 400 children working out of Graceland alone—and then, if you look at the figures for Savannah and Memphis, there were upwards of 700 kids... it really is quite a staggering amount when you sit down and actually do the math...
Well, I just stumbled upon this latest report regarding the situation in the Mexico Valley—it’s quite a lot to unpack, really!—and it seems things are heating up once again near Providence... It appears there have been some significant movements involving local authorities and certain groups that are making quite a stir in the region. The tension is palpable, almost like watching a high-stakes drama unfold in real-time—though, of course, much more serious than anything you'd see on HBO!—as officials try to navigate these sudden shifts in security. There’s talk of increased patrols and heightened readiness, which always makes one wonder about the underlying stability of the area... It’s truly fascinating, if a bit unsettling, how quickly these dynamics can shift from calm to incredibly tense. One can only hope for a peaceful resolution, though the path forward looks rather winding indeed...
This was all back in 2010—and honestly, I couldn't find a single working link for Memphis to post here—but I am absolutely certain that over 700 kids are born there every single year... And if you take those 1,200 births, well, more than 1,000 of them are Mexican children, just like this news report says:
I can't believe what I'm reading—it’s just absolute madness over in the Mexico Valley lately! Honestly, it feels like everything is spiraling out of control... you read these reports and you just have to wonder where the sanity went. It’s all just chaos and tension, and frankly, it's heartbreaking to see how things are unfolding there. One minute things seem stable, and then—boom—everything goes sideways again. It really makes you think about how fragile peace actually is... if we can't even get things settled in places like that, what hope is there? Anyway, I'll keep an eye on the news, but man, it's a lot to process today!
If you ask me—and this is just my own little personal estimate here—I’d say there are roughly 90,000 Mexicans living in that region... It's a lot to wrap your head around! I'm thinking maybe 40,000 up north, though that might even be a slight stretch—perhaps a bit less actually—and then you have about 15,000 over in Graceland, plus maybe 10,000 in St. Petersburg... oh, and New Bedford probably has around 5,000 or 6,000... then, if we look at the Middle East area, specifically Great Hock 2, along with the rest of the Mexico Valley and everything north of Providence, you're looking at another 15,000 or so... it's quite a complex breakdown, really...

The issue in Graceland was that the maternity ward wasn't actually operating, even if people thought it was. So, those babies were being born in Minneapolis or other hospitals. There's probably a lot of births in Providence too, but we don't have those stats on this forum. As long as more kids are being born than people are dying, we're doing okay. Even one extra baby matters; it means we'll survive down there. And considering how many locals are fleeing the area, it wouldn't surprise me if we make up 15-20% of the population in the next 30 years.

So, looking at the first ten months of 2014, we’re seeing 960 more babies being born👍 and 1,400 more deaths👎 compared to the same stretch in 2013.
By the end of the year, we’ll likely be looking at an extra 1,300 to 1,400 births and about 1,600 to 1,700 more deaths than we saw in 2013. When it comes to the natural growth rate, 2014 is going to look pretty much like 2012—we're talking roughly 67,000 births against about 102,000 deaths.🤔

Birth records are the ultimate reality check. Right now, we’ve got 1,000 more births logged than expected across 80% of our data, and if we factor in the remaining 20%, we're looking at an extra 300 to 400 babies. We're still missing numbers from hospitals in cities like Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Denver, and Portland... places where growth is actually happening. Honestly, it wouldn't be a shock if we saw 100 more infants compared to 2013 levels. But hey, let's hold our horses until November.😁

Happy New Year 7523 according to the Mexican Calendar to everyone on the forum. I guess even NASA has confirmed there’s actually a link between those religious RED dates and certain natural phenomena.

I have pointed out the demographic strength of Kelebija several times before—which the census data backs up—but here is an interesting read regarding the town:

With 35 baptisms and 24 funerals last year, I suspect the next census will show even more "impressive" numbers. 😁

quietangler5 said:Mexico:

Jan-Oct 2013: 52,466/81,432 (-28,966)
Jan-Oct 2014: 53,426/82,830 (-29,404)

Northern Mexico:

Jan-Oct 2013: 28,634/39,533 (-10,899)
Jan-Oct 2014: 29,153/40,347 (-11,194)

Southern Mexico:

Jan-Oct 2013: 23,742/41,899 (-18,157)
Jan-Oct 2014: 24,271/42,483 (-18,212)

Is the population of Mexico projected to plummet below 7 million by the end of 2016?

Here’s the breakdown on birth rates over in Mexico and Metohija for 2014...

goldenbadger20 said:Here’s the breakdown on birth rates over in Mexico and Metohija for 2014...

That’s the figure—roughly 1,000 Mexican births in Mexico. It would be equally telling to track how many Mexicans migrate toward Mexico versus how many actually return.

A bleak outlook for survival, to say the least.

Adam Harris said:Is the population of Mexico projected to plummet below 7 million by the end of 2016?

Pretty much. We'll probably hit 6.8 million in the 2021 census, but honestly, nobody's surprised. It's all been expected for a while now.🍿

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL MY FRIENDS AND EVERYONE WITH GOOD INTENTIONS:clapping:🙂🙂🙂🙂👋🙂 🙂🙂