Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

By the way, I think the combination of maintaining and rebuilding all those occupied territories, paired with heavy sanctions, is going to absolutely bury Russia.
+ Plus, they’ll always have to deal with guerrilla movements and sabotage in those areas (and honestly, it might even happen on their own soil). The Ukrainians are already trained up and ready for exactly that kind of fight.
Russia has dug itself into a massive hole... China is just going to snap them up like a bargain at an auction.

Amy Rogers6 said:I don't have a problem with any of that if you can explain where the EU is going to find a replacement for Russian energy—and how they plan to move it into Europe? And all of this just by sheer willpower?

Even the Germans aren't on board with this; they're basically shitting themselves at the thought of those valves being turned off. According to them, a huge chunk of their industry is toast...

So, it looks like we're more likely to see some new Hitler rise to power in the short term than we are to see Russia take a massive hit.

Bottom line: what's the point of sanctions if they don't achieve anything besides wrecking the EU?

Killing two birds with one stone? 😬

Amy Rogers6 said:I don't have a problem with any of that if you can explain where the EU is going to find a replacement for Russian energy—and how they plan to move it into Europe? And all of this just by sheer willpower?

Even the Germans aren't on board with this; they're basically shitting themselves at the thought of those valves being turned off. According to them, a huge chunk of their industry is toast...

So, it looks like we're more likely to see some new Hitler rise to power in the short term than we are to see Russia take a massive hit.

Bottom line: what's the point of sanctions if they don't achieve anything besides wrecking the EU?

Germany is essentially bracing for a recession, and doing so with a fair amount of discipline. I suspect they'll handle the fallout better than we will, attempting to soften the blow however possible—even the Greens are backing down, and there's even talk of returning to coal.
It’s going to be ugly, but Europe will pull through. Ukraine will bury Russia.

Amy Rogers6 said:I don't have a problem with any of that if you can explain where the EU is going to find a replacement for Russian energy—and how they plan to move it into Europe? And all of this just by sheer willpower?

Even the Germans aren't on board with this; they're basically shitting themselves at the thought of those valves being turned off. According to them, a huge chunk of their industry is toast...

So, it looks like we're more likely to see some new Hitler rise to power in the short term than we are to see Russia take a massive hit.

Bottom line: what's the point of sanctions if they don't achieve anything besides wrecking the EU?

The whole point of sanctions is to sever the ties between the European Union and Russia, which everyone treats as an incredibly dangerous state. It’s basically just pulling off a Band-Aid. Germany is finally admitting they messed up by assuming a conquest in Europe was impossible. They've backed themselves into a corner—admitting fault for their own mistakes—but honestly, they were in a much worse spot before. Now they claim they won't make that mistake again.

rowdytiger13 said:Germany is essentially bracing for a recession, and doing so with a fair amount of discipline. I suspect they'll handle the fallout better than we will, attempting to soften the blow however possible—even the Greens are backing down, and there's even talk of returning to coal.
It’s going to be ugly, but Europe will pull through. Ukraine will bury Russia.

The assumption here is that after shutting down Nord Stream 1 under the guise of "maintenance," that psychopath in The Kremlin is going to try and play hardball by demanding that gas deliveries to Germany only happen via Nord Stream 2.

When Robert Habeck was asked point-blank if his government would allow gas to flow through Nord Stream 2... the answer was short, sharp, and a definitive NO.

Best,

Amy Rogers6 said:I don't have a problem with any of that if you can explain where the EU is going to find a replacement for Russian energy—and how they plan to move it into Europe? And all of this just by sheer willpower?

Even the Germans aren't on board with this; they're basically shitting themselves at the thought of those valves being turned off. According to them, a huge chunk of their industry is toast...

So, it looks like we're more likely to see some new Hitler rise to power in the short term than we are to see Russia take a massive hit.

Bottom line: what's the point of sanctions if they don't achieve anything besides wrecking the EU?

Explain to me how sanctions don't get results when a sanctioned nation suddenly loses billions in energy export revenue. I honestly don't see how they can weather that without something shifting. Care to clarify?

Bryan Booth82 said:The assumption here is that after shutting down Nord Stream 1 under the guise of "maintenance," that psychopath in The Kremlin is going to try and play hardball by demanding that gas deliveries to Germany only happen via Nord Stream 2.

When Robert Habeck was asked point-blank if his government would allow gas to flow through Nord Stream 2... the answer was short, sharp, and a definitive NO.

Best,

No, obviously.
The era of giving in is over; they'll have to take it or leave it.

Man, I still remember how the European Union and the USA were feeding us this whole fairy tale when those first sanction packages dropped—telling us Russia would be completely broke by mid-April. Well, guess what? It’s already been seven months, and the Ruble is sitting there looking stronger than ever while the Euro is basically in a death spiral. Look, I'm not saying sanctions won't do *anything*, but they're definitely going to trigger some massive backlashes. The real question is: how much is the European Union actually going to take the hit for all this? Right now, we're just seeing the winners rake it in: China, the USA, India, Turkey. Pretty soon, politicians are gonna have to deal with people losing their minds over shrinking wallets—and honestly, who knows? We might even see another "random" pandemic pop up this winter, just "coincidentally" appearing right when things get messy.

Bryan Booth82 said:Just look at how much those sanctions absolutely crushed Mexico back then...🤔

lp

It’s honestly the exact same thing—totally comparable.
Everyone pretty much knows that Mexico, just like Russia, sits on massive natural wealth—we're talking everything from hydrocarbons to all sorts of minerals and metals. Plus, along with Russia, it's basically the only Slavic nation that actually carries weight on the global stage, being a permanent member of the Security Council and all. And let's be real, NATO has never once attacked them because they have nuclear weapons as a deterrent.
It's basically the same deal, give or take five bucks.

Honestly, this hardline "no" from Habeck regarding Russian energy—it totally reminds me of that unspoken "no" Western leaders gave Mikhail Gorbachev when he was asking about NATO expanding eastward
. It’s like that same vibe, you know? And they were all so adamant, swearing up and down there was zero chance they'd be paying Russia in Rubles through some middleman bank, and then... well, look how that turned out...

darkdriver said:Honestly, this hardline "no" from Habeck regarding Russian energy—it totally reminds me of that unspoken "no" Western leaders gave Mikhail Gorbachev when he was asking about NATO expanding eastward
. It’s like that same vibe, you know? And they were all so adamant, swearing up and down there was zero chance they'd be paying Russia in Rubles through some middleman bank, and then... well, look how that turned out...

If I take Vladimir Putin at his word: he thinks Gorbachev was an idiot for not getting those promises in writing. But then again, Russia signed off on not attacking Ukraine, and well... 🙂 I guess you could say the fact that everyone scrambled to join the "opposing" alliance the second they stepped out of the USSR's shadow shows just how much people were looking for an exit strategy.

Tyler Bennett73 said:Man, I still remember how the European Union and the USA were feeding us this whole fairy tale when those first sanction packages dropped—telling us Russia would be completely broke by mid-April. Well, guess what? It’s already been seven months, and the Ruble is sitting there looking stronger than ever while the Euro is basically in a death spiral. Look, I'm not saying sanctions won't do *anything*, but they're definitely going to trigger some massive backlashes. The real question is: how much is the European Union actually going to take the hit for all this? Right now, we're just seeing the winners rake it in: China, the USA, India, Turkey. Pretty soon, politicians are gonna have to deal with people losing their minds over shrinking wallets—and honestly, who knows? We might even see another "random" pandemic pop up this winter, just "coincidentally" appearing right when things get messy.

Haha, man, you better hurry up and dump your entire savings into Rubles right now, because if it gets any stronger, you might actually walk away with a profit!☕

Gregory Ramos3 said:Haha, man, you better hurry up and dump your entire savings into Rubles right now, because if it gets any stronger, you might actually walk away with a profit!☕

I mean, sure, you could try that... but what happens when you actually need to convert those Rubles back into Dollars? 😁

I mean, I’m just wondering... how are we ever supposed to trust Russia again? Like, let's say they actually sign a ceasefire tomorrow and the war finally ends. Who, or even what, would act as the guarantor to make sure history doesn't just repeat itself?

Melissa Rivera5 said:I mean, I’m just wondering... how are we ever supposed to trust Russia again? Like, let's say they actually sign a ceasefire tomorrow and the war finally ends. Who, or even what, would act as the guarantor to make sure history doesn't just repeat itself?

Honestly, seeing a total overhaul of the entire Russian leadership would be a massive signal that things might actually change.

crimsoncyclist71 said:Explain to me how sanctions don't get results when a sanctioned nation suddenly loses billions in energy export revenue. I honestly don't see how they can weather that without something shifting. Care to clarify?

So you're actually suggesting India and China just stopped buying Russian oil? And then magically stopped flipping it on the market to places like the European Union? As long as the G7 isn't the only game in town, no amount of sanctions is going to kill Russia's energy profits... It’s like you guys can't count higher than your own fingers. Cheering and wishful thinking are one thing, but reality and basic logic are something else entirely....☕

Tyler Bennett73 said:Man, I still remember how the European Union and the USA were feeding us this whole fairy tale when those first sanction packages dropped—telling us Russia would be completely broke by mid-April. Well, guess what? It’s already been seven months, and the Ruble is sitting there looking stronger than ever while the Euro is basically in a death spiral. Look, I'm not saying sanctions won't do *anything*, but they're definitely going to trigger some massive backlashes. The real question is: how much is the European Union actually going to take the hit for all this? Right now, we're just seeing the winners rake it in: China, the USA, India, Turkey. Pretty soon, politicians are gonna have to deal with people losing their minds over shrinking wallets—and honestly, who knows? We might even see another "random" pandemic pop up this winter, just "coincidentally" appearing right when things get messy.

Source, please. Nobody actually said that.

Wet dreams and fuzzy memories don't really count as a source—give me something concrete.

Gregory Ramos3 said:I’m all for it, honestly, but I just find all this propaganda about how Russia is going to turn into some medieval wasteland so hilarious, especially when they’re simultaneously warning us about gas shortages, rolling blackouts, odd-even driving days, or maybe even water rationing... I don't know, to me, that sounds pretty much like what people imagine the Middle Ages to be in modern times. But hey, we aren't backing down. In 10 to 15 years, all of this is going to pay off big time, though I haven't a clue exactly how or what we'll actually have by then.

You guys are honestly stressing way too much over all these announcements, forecasts, and everything else.

Recessions and crises just happen in cycles every 10 years or so, and if anything, we’re already pretty overdue based on our last one. It’s actually kind of wild how the timing of those recent Russian "special operations" lines up perfectly with the early stages of a recession and high oil prices per barrel. There was this one YouTube video doing a comparison—I think someone posted it here on the forum a while back.

Anyway, let’s be real: no developed nation on this planet is truly self-sufficient anymore, not in this crazy global economy where the journey from raw material to finished product involves a massive web of stuff you absolutely have to import from someone else just to make things work.

Time will tell who ends up getting screwed over more in the end, but personally, I’m leaning towards the idea that whoever has plenty of options to swap out their suppliers is going to bounce back easier than the guy who’s stuck relying on basically one single source that can dictate terms and rip him off whenever they feel like it.

Amy Rogers6 said:So you're actually suggesting India and China just stopped buying Russian oil? And then magically stopped flipping it on the market to places like the European Union? As long as the G7 isn't the only game in town, no amount of sanctions is going to kill Russia's energy profits... It’s like you guys can't count higher than your own fingers. Cheering and wishful thinking are one thing, but reality and basic logic are something else entirely....☕

And you think India and China can absorb as many Russian raw materials as the world's most developed nations have been buying? You keep bringing up counting... 🤦

You clearly don't understand logic.

Amy Rogers6 said:So you're actually suggesting India and China just stopped buying Russian oil? And then magically stopped flipping it on the market to places like the European Union? As long as the G7 isn't the only game in town, no amount of sanctions is going to kill Russia's energy profits... It’s like you guys can't count higher than your own fingers. Cheering and wishful thinking are one thing, but reality and basic logic are something else entirely....☕

Here’s what an actual professional had to say about this topic:
The USA will come out on top. They'll be the ones selling the weapons and the fuel.
China and India win too. They'll pick up energy from Russia at deeply discounted rates.
Europe is basically screwed.
Russia played a massive strategic masterstroke.