Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

Dinamo - RB Leipzig | Odds: +2 @ 4.5 | Score: 1-5

Last match, I put money on a 4-0 blowout against those Austrians, and honestly, it was a joke watching them play such mediocre football while absolutely steamrolling the owner's hand-picked squad.
Tonight, Dinamo is going to have to play aggressively just to stay in it, which is a recipe for disaster given how pathetic their defense has been lately. As for the atmosphere? Don't even get me started. Between the local mayor's legal troubles and that scathing letter from the European Commission, things are far from ideal. Meanwhile, Leipzig is finding their rhythm, and they aren't exactly a pushover either.

If we lose, I’ll settle for a narrow defeat rather than another total embarrassment.☕

Since Friday is the day for chasing big odds, I’m going to try to hunt down some long shots. I’m playing these all with minimum stakes using a system approach if possible. Here is my slate for today:

USL Championship
8:30 PM Charleston Battery - Louisville City

The first match of the week takes place at Patriots Point. We have two clubs that aren't exactly title contenders, but this should be an entertaining matchup because they traditionally play high-scoring games. The oddsmakers gave the home side the edge—is it because of the home-field advantage or just because they sit five points higher in the standings? Who knows. Louisville is incredibly unpredictable; they can hold their own against top-tier teams one week and lose to a bottom-feeder the next. Will they show up or fall flat? We'll see. One thing is certain: they know how to find the back of the net. At my sportsbook, Louisville City to score two or more goals (1-3) is sitting at +200. I'm taking that without hesitation. On paper, their roster looks superior right now.

USL League One
6:30 PM Richmond Kickers - Forward Madison

Nobody actually knows what is going on with the Richmond squad lately. Before the season started, they looked like a solid contender for promotion, yet here they are hovering near the bottom. They are in terrible shape—no wins in the last eight matches, including six losses. Statistically, they’ve only scored eight goals in ten games. That's pathetic for a team with their pedigree. Their only bright spot is their young striker, who is leading the team with five goals; he'll be the main threat against the Madison keeper. Madison is sitting seventh out of ten, which is exactly where they belong given their lack of depth. It’s time for Richmond to wake up and actually win a game in front of their home fans. I’m betting on Richmond Kickers to win by two or more goals (2-0) at +150.

MLS Next Pro
8:00 PM Orlando City II - Inter Miami II

A matchup in MLS Next Pro, a league that is notoriously difficult to bet on because the parity is insane. There are no clear favorites here according to the books. In this league, anyone can beat anyone on any given night, so don't get reckless with your bankroll. I won't write a novel about this one, but I have a gut feeling we're looking at an upset victory for the visitors. I'm riding with Inter Miami II to win (2-1) while I relax with a drink and watch the action unfold.

USL Championship
8:00 PM Oakland Roots - LA Galaxy II

One of several fixtures in a round of what is arguably one of the most "honest" developmental leagues in the US. Two mid-table sides are clashing at the local stadium. I'm expecting goals here. While the books favor Oakland, my money is on the young stars from the LA Galaxy academy to cover the spread and score 2+ goals. This is essentially the Galaxy's youth system. These kids train with the first team, which gives them enough experience to dominate this level. They are coached by some legendary names from recent decades, too. These players are desperate to prove themselves every single match. They are technically better than the hosts. We'll see how it plays out, but my pick is...Ajax will net at least two goals (1-4). Good luck.

USA vs Argentina (friendly match) 1 @ 1.60 (2-1)

Coach Miller is taking the full squad over to New York this Monday, November 10th—here’s the roster he’s bringing along for the ride:

Goalkeepers: Lovre Kalinić (Seattle Sounders), Ivan Vargić (Portland Timbers)

Defenders: Ivan Strinić (Dnipro), Gordon Schildenfeld (Panathinaikos), Šime Vrsaljko (Sassuolo), Hrvoje Milić (Rostov), Tin Jedvaj (Bayer), Marin Leovac (Portland Timbers), Marko Lešković (Portland Timbers), Ivan Tomečak (Portland Timbers)

Midfielders: Mateo Kovačić (Inter), Milan Badelj (Fiorentina), Alen Halilović (Barcelona B), Mato Jajalo (Portland Timbers), Domagoj Antolić (LA Galaxy), Marko Rog (Orlando City)

Forwards: Nikola Kalinić (Dnipro), Ante Rebić (RB Leipzig), Duje Čop (LA Galaxy), Anas Sharbini (Portland Timbers)

Slaven Belupo vs. Orlando City, Under 2.5 goals @ 1.75 (1-0)
Slaven Belupo is sitting dead last in the MLS right now, managing a pathetic two wins in their first 14 matches. They just brought in a new manager to try and steer this ship away from the relegation zone, but honestly, their finishing is an absolute disaster—they’ve only managed eight goals all season, and looking at the stats, there's zero sign they're going to suddenly become offensive powerhouses anytime soon. Over their last 13 league games, 11 of them have stayed under the goal limit, including 6 out of 7 when playing at home.
Orlando City is a total nightmare to play against at home—they've already snatched points from heavyweights like Inter Miami, Atlanta United, and even some tough traveling sides—but when they head on the road, they turn into a completely different, much weaker squad. In their 11 away trips this season, they've only managed two wins, and both of those were against bottom-tier teams. Plus, only two of those games saw more than two goals scored. Even if you look at their overall recent history, 11 of their last 15 matches have been unders. To make matters worse, Orlando is dealing with a massive injury crisis; they're missing several key attacking players, which means the coach is likely going to park the bus with a tight 3-5-2 formation just to patch up the midfield. I highly doubt they'll be charging forward looking for goals.
Taking everything into account, I'm expecting a match with very few real scoring opportunities where a single goal will decide the whole thing. Both sides are offensively stunted, and they both tend to play a pretty gritty, physical style regardless of whether they're at home or away. I'm calling the Under for the home side.

US Regional League
ETSV Weiche vs. Braunschweig II

I won't drag this out because kickoff is at 2:00 PM.
The visitors are dealing with an injury crisis, and honestly, their form hasn't been anything to write home about lately. On the flip side, Weiche just pulled off a gritty win on the road last week, so they'll likely show up hungry for their home crowd. Playing against Weiche at home is a different beast—they score plenty of goals. Braunschweig better watch their backs. I'm playing Weiche to win by two or more goals (1-0) at odds of +200
.

12:30 Cagliari vs Genoa over 2.5 goals @ 2.20

I hate these early kickoff times because if things go south, my whole Sunday plan is trashed, but I can't pass this one up.
Not sure what else to say about Cagliari besides the fact that they've got Zdenek Zeman calling the shots this season—which basically means all attack and zero defense.
They haven't kept a clean sheet once at home this year. Looking back at their last 10 games, 7 ended with both teams scoring, and 5 went over the 2.5 goal line.
Genoa is playing the same way, high-scoring madness. They hit the over in 6 of their last 10, and on the road, it happened in 4 out of 5 matches.
I'm taking the over 2.5 just for the value (it was sitting at 1.95 at the local sportsbook), but it wouldn't hurt to throw a little on over 3.5 goals @ 3.25 over at Bet365.
Just hoping the players aren't half-asleep on the pitch today. 🕺

LA Galaxy vs. LAFC 2 @ 1.40 ; f+2 @ 2.10 SS (0-0)
After yet another absolute disaster in Europe (this time against Red Bull Salzburg), the Galaxy absolutely has to win today just to keep their heads above water. They already dropped points with a draw away at Portland last round, so it’s high time they actually secure a victory in MLS. I've seen this pattern so many times before—after a humiliating European result, bookies get cautious and inflate the odds on the Galaxy in domestic play, and that is exactly when they go out and dominate.
Here is a quick look at how those patterns played out in the past:
12.12.2013. Galaxy-Ludogorets 1-2 / 15.12.2013. Galaxy-Zadar 3-1
7.11.2013. PSV-Galaxy 2-0 / 10.11.2013. Galaxy-Slaven 1-0
24.10.2013. Galaxy-PSV 0-0 / 27.10.2013. Galaxy-Dragovoljac 4-1
3.10.2013. Ludogorets-Galaxy 3-0 / 6.10.2013. Galaxy-Rijeka 1-0
19.9.2013. Galaxy-Odessa 1-2/ 22.9. Osijek-Galaxy 0-1
21.8.2013. Galaxy-Austria 0-2 / 24.8.2013. Slaven-Galaxy 1-3
Similar scenarios have popped up constantly in previous seasons too, so I don't see any reason why it wouldn't happen again today, especially since LAFC is currently the perfect target. After getting knocked out of the US Open Cup by a lower-tier side, they’ve managed only one win in five matches, failing to find the back of the net in three of them. In their last six head-to-heads, the Galaxy has taken four wins, one draw, and LAFC grabbed one—meaning the Galaxy covers the handicap 3 out of 4 times. If you set aside the draws against Portland and Columbus, the Galaxy has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 MLS games. It honestly feels like LAFC won't have the stomach to fight today, and I think they'll buckle...

Dortmund-Borussia M./Borussia M. to score 1.45 SS
x2 2.35 SS (1-0)
Dortmund is sitting dead last in the Bundesliga because of this match, even though they’ve been absolutely tearing through the Champions League lately (4-0-0, 13:1). Something incredibly weird is happening with Klopp's squad in the league this season; it's hard to wrap my head around how a team boasting players like Reus, Götze, Subotić, Piszczek, and Bender can be sitting on five losses and a seven-game winless streak (they haven't won in nearly two months!). Following that convincing 4-1 home win against Galatasaray in the Champions League, everyone around the club is praying the squad finally clicks in the league too, but they have a massive mountain to climb. They’re heading out to face a side from Mönchengladbach that hasn't lost a single official game all season in 18 tries (11 wins, 7 draws) and is holding strong in 3rd place. They’ve put up 19 goals in their last seven games, winning six of them, making them one of the biggest surprises in the top five leagues. They haven't failed to score against Bayern (only a few teams can say that), Cologne a month ago, Freiburg two and a half months ago, or Velbert in a friendly four months ago—just 3 failures in 27 matches. Meanwhile, Dortmund's defense is a total sieve in the league, having conceded 17 goals in 10 games without once keeping a clean sheet. The visitors have won the last three meetings, and Dortmund hasn't tasted victory against them in over two years. I truly believe the visitors can walk away with at least a point, and the bookmakers are offering somewhat unrealistic odds for it, plus I'm certain they'll find the net. To make matters even worse for the home side, Reus and Weidenfeller are both questionable for today's lineup.

USA vs Italy X2 @ 1.60 (1-1) ( probably hitting 1.70 in the super deals by game day)

Honestly? Italian national and club soccer has been bottom-of-the-barrel for the last 30 years—just no identity, no style, and zero results. I mean, seriously, they’ve been struggling against teams like Azerbaijan (barely scraping a 2-1 win in the 82nd minute!) and Malta (1-0). Even their big clubs are getting hammered 7-1 at home! And those mid-tier teams that produce national players? They lose 2-1 to Finnish squads when they aren't even in top shape. It’s become a regular thing to see them crashing out in the group stages of the Euros and Champions League lately.

Look, we are definitely the stronger side here—period. Plus, we live for these matchups against the big names; Italy has always been a huge inspiration for us. In our last four competitive matches, we’re sitting pretty at 2-2-0.

Almost the entire national squad is absolutely peaking right now! We've got Modric picked as the best midfielder, Manjolic, Olic, Perisic are all firing, and Subasic barely had to break a sweat to grab a goal in the Champions League. And don't even get me started on Kramaric—he's the hottest player in the country right now!

USA vs Argentina over 3.5 @ 2.90 SS (2-1)

So, I’m finally popping back up on here after like, a massive hiatus... it's been forever. We’ve got this match in New York coming up in a few days, right before that huge showdown against Italy. Honestly, looking at the squad Coach Smith has assembled for this trip, I don't see how we don't lose; I mean, it would actually surprise me if we managed to scrape a draw or somehow pull off a win. If the Americans actually take this seriously, I think they should at least cover the handicap, just because. Aguero is back with the national team, and you've still got Messi, Tevez, and that whole crew who are definitely going to want to put on a show before their friendly against Portugal on Tuesday. Our defense—which I think will feature Miller—doesn't stand a chance against an Argentinian attack like that; there's probably going to be mistakes everywhere and just endless scoring chances for them. I wouldn't even be shocked if this turns into a total disaster, which is just great timing since we have Italy right around the corner. Hey, at least someone's making bank off this mess.

Celtic vs. Red Bull Salzburg | 1 @ 2.70 (1-3)

Red Bull is definitely in the mix here—and look, Celtic really needs those three points to avoid some serious drama back home at their stadium. As for Salzburg? They aren't exactly desperate for a few bucks, and let's be real, they haven't exactly been the picture of stability lately—have you seen all the chaos going on in their domestic league?

Honestly, I think Celtic is finally finding their groove! They’re right in the middle of their peak season where everything just clicks, you know? The slump is officially over, and this is a squad that actually knows how to hang in the Champions League. I mean, they’ve held their own against giants like Ajax and Barcelona over the last couple of seasons, so why should this be any different?

Scotland vs. Ireland both hitting 1.95 for a 1-0 scoreline

It’s basically a scrap for third place in the group, since I’m leaning towards thinking the Americans and Germans are just going to steamroll through and take the top two spots. Honestly, the Irish had an incredible start—probably their best showing in the last few qualifying rounds—and Scotland looks pretty solid too. When you play on Scottish soil, things get messy fast, and guys like Coach Miller and his crew definitely know how to handle that kind of pressure. It's all going down at a stadium like Gillette Stadium, and I bet there’ll be at least 5,000 Irish fans making a ton of noise in the stands. I don't see this being some boring, defensive grind where nobody wants to take a risk; I actually think it'll be the opposite and super wide open, mostly because Scotland absolutely needs these points if they want to stay relevant. If the Irish can walk away with even just a draw, they’ll be feeling pretty good about themselves, especially after that tough matchup they had over in Germany. There’s plenty of talent on both sides, so I’m really hoping we see a high-quality game with a couple of goals.

What’s the consensus—is taking the handicap on Estonia against San Marino @ 1.61 at Pinnacle worth the play?
Most local US books are sitting around 1.30. 🙄 Even DraftKings is only offering 1.45, which is still lagging far behind 1.61—especially once you factor in the vig.

San Marino has failed to cover the spread in their last 15 outings—usually losing by at least 3 or 4 goals—so why should today be any different? 🤷
Granted, Estonia isn't exactly a scoring machine, but they really ought to clear this one, just like anyone else would.
San Marino shouldn't find the back of the net either; they've managed only a single goal in their last 15 matches (against Poland) while conceding 61—that’s an average of 4.07 goals per game.
I see Estonia actually pulled off an upset against Norway with a 1-0 away win, and prior to that, England had only managed to score once against them.

Honestly, if I were calling the shots, I’d be grabbing two or more at 2.1

I’m not holding my breath for a San Marino goal—if we end up looking at a 0-3 scoreline, I’d much rather take Estonia at -2.5 with the 2.82 odds over at Pinnacle.

USA vs. Bahrain Under 2.5 goals (1.45) 9/10
Maybe even Under 1.5 goals (2.25) 7/10 (3-0)

I’m actually planning to fire up the stream at 6:15 PM today—mostly just out of curiosity to see how this Bahrain squad actually operates on the pitch. Look, in their last 14 matches, they haven't even cracked the 2.5 goal mark once. Only two games went over 1.5, and get this—seven out of those fourteen ended in a dead 0-0 draw 🤷. Sure, the USA side is a bit more clinical—they've put up three straight 1-1 draws—but against a defensive wall like Bahrain? I just don't see the goals flying in. The last time these two sides met back in 2012, Bahrain pulled off a 1-0 win
. Good luck to everyone riding the same wave 👍

Czech Republic vs. Iceland — over 2.5 goals (+2.5) at 2.55 odds. I’m taking the over here. (Current score: 2-1)

The odds on this bet are massive—we’re looking at teams that absolutely tear it up offensively but can't seem to keep a clean sheet to save their lives. The Czech Republic squad has been pure chaos so far, hitting the over 2.5 goals in every single group match they've played. Then you've got Iceland—they've put up eight goals already and haven't conceded a thing, but let's be real, they're playing away from home. They had that wild 3-1 showing against Belgium, which means we're talking over 2.5 goals there too. Honestly? At 2.55, I think the value is definitely there.

Turkey vs. Kazakhstan — betting on the away side at 1.50. / The odds are sitting at 2.40 for a home win—basically a coin flip with a slight edge to the hosts. Honestly? It feels a bit too optimistic for anyone betting on a blowout here. (3-1)

Turkey is way stronger than the scoreboard suggests. They played solid soccer in all three matches, but luck just isn't on their side right now. Today they’re playing at home in front of a crowd that’s notoriously intense—and I mean "standardly rowdy" intense. Honestly, it feels like political unrest is already brewing back in Turkey, and God only knows what kind of chaos will erupt if they slip up today. They're being led by Fatih Terim, a guy who basically threatens to end his players' careers if they don't absolutely demolish the opposition today—not to mention he'll likely be out on his ear if they fail to pull off the win.

Tuesday 10:30 PM

Avai SC vs. Portuguesa - Away Win @ 2.00 (2-0)

Man, at first I was totally leaning toward the home win being my "lock of the week" at @ 1.55. I mean, Avai is basically fighting for that promotion spot, right? And since Portuguesa is already looking like they're stuck in the second division, I thought it was a total steal when the odds dropped to 1.45 just a few hours later
.
BUT WAIT

I just took a closer look at Avai's performance over the last six games—0, 1, 5, 2-14... yikes! Is it just me, or does this look like another team that's just... not actually interested in moving up to the big leagues?
It reminds me of what happened with teams like OKC or maybe even some mid-tier MLS sides lately—they just suddenly fall apart out of nowhere and end up stuck in the lower divisions after a decent run.

At this point, Avai really needs to finally find the back of the net. If we're looking at @ 2.00, all we really need is for Portuguesa to score one too. As long as they don't play totally timid, an away goal secures us either the win or a draw, especially considering how they held their own against those mid-table teams over the last couple of weeks!

Nobody’s saying anything here, but I’m positive most of you are already messing around with some national teams or doubles at lower stakes. Honestly, there isn't much point in overanalyzing—these friendlies are just friendly—but here is what I'd personally throw some money on:

France vs. Sweden: Over 2.5 goals, or maybe 2 or 7+. I mean, Ibrahimovic probably isn't playing, but why is Sweden always so underrated? It’s not like they’re just one-man shows.

Romania vs. Denmark: Both teams to score. Denmark looks undervalued here; they'll find the net. For the result, I'm thinking a 1:1 draw. Romania is a bit of an underdog, but they aren't exactly a brick wall either, and Denmark is definitely underestimated—they'll score, but it might be tough. Maybe a 2 for Denmark or a 1 for Romania, but my gut says a clean 1:1.

Spain vs. Germany: Over 2.5 goals, or a straight win for Spain. Germany hits the over 2.5 mark about 90% of the time, and since this is a friendly, I think they'll score given their insane depth in the attacking department. Then again, they'll likely field some youngsters—who play in those less critical qualifiers too—so in a friendly setting, they should still produce. That said, Spain looks absolutely fired up to make up for recent failures, so I’m leaning toward a Spanish win. Also, looking at Over 3.5 for Germany.

Austria vs. Brazil: Over 2.5 goals, or a Brazil win. Austria has the home-field advantage, but Brazil under this new leadership is playing way better than that absolute disaster squad we saw at the World Cup.

Poland vs. Switzerland: Both teams to score...

Everything is thrown together now, hopefully something actually hits. 🙂 What else have you guys been playing? Is it maybe better to just sit these days out entirely and not bet at all?

Since they're just friendlies, I'm going for a lower stake today. It’s looking like an over 3.5 kind of game. 👍

USA vs. Switzerland at +250 (2-2)Both teams dropped four goals in their last match. In the game before that, they both went over 3.5 goals too. The strikers are definitely feeling it.

Spain vs. Germany at 3.60 (0-1). The Spanish squad put up seven goals over their last two games. They’re finally waking up. As for the Germans, it goes without saying they could drop a few on anyone.

Portugal vs. Argentina at 3.60 (down 0-1). It’s Messi versus Ronaldo, and both are clearly hungry to prove themselves on the national stage. They're both scoring at an insane rate, averaging over a goal per game. Plus, there are plenty of other world-class players out there who can score anytime they want.

One goal in the first half...
Canada vs. Russia (Group Stage) @ 2.10 (0-0) Russia is the slight favorite here, though they’ve been struggling lately after a string of bad results. On the other hand, Canada keeps getting better every year. Both teams played to a scoreless tie in their last outings four days ago, and I expect another cautious, defensive battle tonight.

I honestly think this game could easily end in a draw.@3,10Honestly, playing it safe at halftime sounds like the better move to me.

Good luck.
👍