It looks like Turkey is really leaning into this whole situation, maybe even positioning itself as the primary smuggling hub right now. One of the big reasons why we might see sanctions leveled against Turkey is because of all that machinery and specialized equipment being funneled over to help the Russians sustain their war effort. https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...dEJB4wSYg&s=19 https://twitter.com/matthew_pines/st...hef3ojNAg&s=19
I’m emphasizing the word "potentially" here, though, because let's face it—Turkey has elections coming up next year, and according to the latest polls, Erdogan is already losing ground. Plus, you can't ignore how much the economic situation in Turkey is just spiraling downward lately.
Check out this incredible chart: It shows how Russia isn't actually exporting more, or rather, how China and India aren't really making up for all those lost customers in the West. It’s pretty eye-opening when you see it laid out like this. https://twitter.com/DiegoFassnacht/s...12214169681921
The data used in the link above comes from CREA, which does such a fantastic job tracking all of this stuff. https://energyandcleanair.org/
Exclusive: Russia begins stripping commercial jets for parts as sanctions take their toll
Moscow, Aug 8 (Reuters) - According to four industry insiders speaking to Reuters, American-made and foreign-built airlines in Russia—including the state-run Aeroflot (AFLT.MM)—have started dismantling certain jetliners just to harvest the spare parts they can no longer source internationally due to the heavy sanctions from the West.
These moves actually align perfectly with the guidance the Russian government handed out back in June, basically telling airlines to start using some of their fleet as "parts donors" to make sure the rest of those foreign-made planes stay in the air through at least 2025.
I wanted to jump in on this article and build on what was said earlier regarding that Yale report. To put it bluntly, those sanctions are actually hitting home, and even though the Russians are desperately spinning lies to try and mask the reality, some things are just plain obvious: - They’re selling their oil at massive discounts - Their oil revenue was already thinner than what the Arabs make, so their break-even point sat somewhere around $42-$44. Now, once you factor in those deep discounts, a huge chunk of their oil fields are basically becoming money pits that aren't even profitable anymore. - Then there's the nightmare of logistics—getting all that oil over to places like India—which just eats away at whatever tiny profit margin they have left. - As a result, while they might be pulling in more cash from energy exports right now, it’s roughly half of what they were making before the war started. And honestly? That revenue is only going to slide further because they can't access Western tech anymore, which means production will drop, sanctions will likely tighten, and global oil prices are eventually going to dip. - We’ve talked about gas on this thread already, but let's be real: there is simply no way for them to reroute 180-200 billion cubic meters of gas per year from Europe to anywhere else. They can't just flip a switch. The pipelines to China and the ones to Europe aren't connected. Even if they ever tried to link them, it would be entirely on China's terms, because Russia doesn't have the cash to fund it, let alone the capability to build it. It seems like the Chinese actually know how to do the math, unlike the Russians; they’re prioritizing trade with the West, which is 15 to 20 times larger than anything they do with Russia. - You've got foreign currency being traded on black markets (which I'm sure some of you folks here are already tracking), where people are having to pay a 100% premium over the official exchange rate just to get their hands on US dollars. - Entire sectors of their economy have essentially vanished. The only thing seeing any real growth is the endless stream of propaganda about "self-sufficiency."
At the end of the day, Russia is going to follow the exact same path as every other country the West has sanctioned—basically, being cut off from the global flow. And I don't just mean the economic side of things. No nation has ever won a standoff against the West like this, and Russia isn't about to be the exception.
rowdyraven112 said:Try playing a game with actual players for once. When you talk to Russians, you steer clear of politics. An average Russian isn't going to spout political nonsense, especially since they have no clue who's on the other end of the line, but they will tell you the truth about the economy. For the first month, everyone was saying grocery stores were running empty, but that sorted itself out within thirty days. As for prices? Sure, they’re up, but nothing crazy compared to the rest of the world. Of course, they want to know what we think of them. My answer stays the same: we aren't talking politics. We're talking economics.
It’s funny how you guys constantly chime in with these "expert" takes on economics when, frankly, you barely have a clue what you're talking about. I’m pretty damn sure you’ve already tripped over the most basic concepts—like confusing a country's public debt with its external debt—and I bet you aren't even aware that those numbers aren't even precise totals to begin with.
So, those folks over at Yale are out here claiming that the Russian economy is, if I may be blunt, completely and utterly trashed because of all these sanctions. Now, it really makes you wonder who you're supposed to take at their word: should we listen to the "experts" and economists who make this their entire career, or should we trust the people on the street who seem to know that these sanctions aren't actually doing much to Russia—and even if they are, they're mostly just hitting the West where it hurts? https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=4167193
urbanotter said:When you're looking at a budget, the most critical factor isn't just how much you have, but the balance between revenue coming in and expenses going out.😉
A budget doesn't necessarily need to be massive if the income is consistently outpacing the spending; you could manage a smaller fund for years and still see the balance grow or stay steady.
Russia earns significantly more from its oil and gas exports than it is currently spending on the war in Ukraine.
Russia is basically running their entire operation off energy sales—I mean, let’s be honest, it’s pretty much the only thing they have left that actually matters. It’s funding absolutely everything over there, from the war in Ukraine and all their imports to pensions, salaries, and even basic road repairs. And despite what some people here keep parroting like a bunch of mindless parrots, those sanctions are actually working, which is actually making their reliance on energy sales even more extreme. Last year, those sales accounted for about 40% of their federal budget, but now? They've already climbed up to 60%. It's wild when you really look at the numbers.
But look, they actually have their own homegrown processors, like the Everest 8 S and Baikal m.
Yeah, right. Like they actually have anything of their own. They’re just running on old ARM licenses—and let's be real, they're using outdated ones, which is why nobody actually wants them. And honestly? They aren't even making them themselves, lol. That kind of stuff is way too complicated for the Russians to pull off on their own. They’ve been relying on places like TSMC to manufacture them. You really shouldn't take all those big claims about Russia launching its own advanced domestic tech seriously unless you're looking for a good laugh at their expense. https://www.aroged.com/2022/05/06/th...-architecture/ https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/79684/
Joshua Myers432 said:It’s not like Russians are just going to suddenly pivot to a diet of buckwheat and vodka; if they have one thing going for them, it's resources. The real question is how much they've gotten soft over the last 20 years—those people in Moscow probably have, considering how much they whine when they can't get their hands on a damn McDonald's. 🤣
Iran is insignificant here. China is the real heavyweight, and for now, they're just balancing the scales while waiting to see how things develop. Playing it safe, as usual...
Just like they have over in Iran and Venezuela, right? I mean, they’re absolutely losing it, aren't they? It's honestly wild to watch.
silentnomad7 As if I haven't heard this a thousand times before! Honestly, listening to people like him is just exhausting sometimes because you can tell they aren't even looking at the facts anymore—they're just spinning wheels in the mud. It’s like watching someone try to drive a Ford through a swamp; you know it's not going to work, but they just keep flooring it anyway! And don't even get me started on how some of these discussions go in circles. You see someone post something that sounds like it was ripped straight out of an Orwellian novel, and instead of questioning it, everyone just nods along like everything is perfectly fine. It's wild! I really mean it, there's such a lack of actual critical thinking happening lately, and it makes me want to just sit back, grab a coffee, and watch the chaos unfold from a distance. The truth of the matter is actually a bit different than what people want to believe, because honestly, it feels like Russia, under the leadership of Putin and his little inner circle of cronies, is basically regressing straight back into the Middle Ages.
I honestly don't think people realize just how close we are to the truth here. Russia has been circling the drain for decades now; it’s really just their endless exploitation of natural resources that keeps the whole thing looking functional on the surface. But let's be real—that era is finally hitting a wall. What exactly are we supposed to expect from a nation that literally needs a handout from the West just to get its own resources out of the ground and onto the global market? Does anyone actually believe it’s a coincidence that every single major energy project in Russia involves foreign partners? It’s not luck; it's survival.
Bryan Booth82 said:Concessions? What kind of concessions? They can certainly try to demand something, but let's be realistic: Germany isn't going to give up anything that actually matters, nor do they even have the capacity to do so. At this point, all that's left for them to do is confirm what everyone in Germany already knows deep down: that these people have been unreliable partners in every sense of the word for ages. The sooner the Germans accept that reality, the faster they'll navigate through this crisis. Best regards,
- They're watering down the sanctions entirely. - They're stalling on getting weapons over to the Ukrainians. - Or they just stop the aid altogether—like how Germany is currently blocking that $9 billion tranche of European Union aid, supposedly because they don't want it to be tied to shared debt.
The $9 billion The EU Has agreed in aid to Ukraine is being Held up by Berlin, ostensibly because it doesn’t like the manner in which the money has been raised (from EU-wide borrowing), more credibly because it doesn’t want further to annoy the Kremlin.
- Or maybe it's just straight-up breaking the rules. You have to look at how the entire Russian industrial sector depends on machinery from Germany, especially when you get into the defense side of things. It makes you wonder what kind of backroom deals are happening to keep those old machines running, or how they're funneling new ones through Kazakhstan... I mean, companies like Siemens have been caught breaking sanctions before, specifically when dealing with Russia.
I’ve already mentioned this somewhere else in this thread, but look, it’s pretty obvious: Russia knows they’re essentially finished as the West's primary energy supplier. Honestly, the shift away from them isn't even an accident—it's a calculated strategic move by the West. At this point, it doesn't even matter if they follow the letter of their contracts or play by the rules, because within just a few years, Germany won't be importing much gas from them anyway. They basically have one massive, high-stakes card left to play before their time runs out, which is simply cutting off the gas supply entirely to try and squeeze some concessions out of Germany.
Between Russian stubbornness and that typical Swabian arrogance, they’re more than capable of causing real damage—and honestly, that seems to be exactly what they’re aiming for: Nord Stream 1 is down to just 20% as of Wednesday. https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/statu...JyV9qySEA&s=19
Look, let's be real here—the Saudis haven't even become significant importers of oil from Russia, let alone the biggest players. I mean, 24,000 barrels? That’s practically a joke. They’re just bringing in fuel oil to run their own power plants, and honestly, they're probably getting it at a massive discount too. Still, it is pretty funny to see how much more chaotic these numbers are getting lately; it feels like the anxiety levels are just hitting a fever pitch everywhere you look.
On another note, in a country where people actually get arrested just for holding up a blank piece of paper in public, it looks like now they've moved on to targeting folks who have something even more vague, like a random collection of stars. https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...1ME01CCpQ&s=19
When you look at the situation with Russia, I honestly feel like the arguments for cutting off deliveries entirely carry way more weight than people realize
- Let's be real, gas just isn't the massive revenue driver for them that oil is - They can't just flip a switch and reroute all that gas headed toward Europe to somewhere else; the pipeline networks going toward China and those heading toward Europe aren't connected, and they won't be for at least another 8 to 10 years - They aren't going to be able to build new LNG terminals on their own without help from the West—and honestly, they probably can't even maintain the ones they already have—but those sanctions? Those are here to stay - Europe is aggressively diversifying its energy sources right now, and since this is a strategic and political move rather than a purely economic one, the reality is that Russia's gas revenues from Europe are going to dry up in a few years regardless of what little games they try to play now - Russia really only has about an 18 to 24-month window where they can use gas to cause actual headaches, specifically for Germany, before Germany ramps up its LNG capacity. And once that happens, we'll likely see sanctions hitting the gas sector too
For Russia, gas has always been less about the money and more about being a strategic weapon, whereas oil has always been the true economic engine. Maintaining current gas supplies offers them tiny, temporary gains, but if they actually pull the plug on deliveries, the potential leverage they gain could be a hundred times greater.
Current contracts are all tapped out, nothing new on the horizon, and Russian oil exports are finally losing steam
Quote : Four Months after The Ukraine invasion, Russian crude exports are finally starting to fall. Looking at the mid-month numbers coming out of Kpler, you can actually see the crude export volume dipping down to roughly 3.9 million barrels per day. Now, I should probably mention that since we're only halfway through the month, these numbers could still shift around quite a bit, but man, this feels like our very first real look at some genuine weakness in those Russian crude exports.
Straight out of a US military field manual... "In active combat zones, Russian ammunition depots are arguably among the most vulnerable targets imaginable." https://twitter.com/Mootality/status...8SHI8wa5w&s=19
I'm not sure if this has started circulating everywhere yet, but James Mattis really went off regarding the situation in Russia
Former US Secretary of Defense James Mattis on Friday slammed Russian President Vladimir Putin's unprovoked War with Ukraine as -> Quote
"WE have a saying in America — WE say that nations with allies thrive , nations without allies wither and we're watching Russia wither before Our eyes right now" -> Quote Mattis said while speaking AT The Seoul forum 2022 in South Korea -> Mattis said CNN -> CNN Mattis -> James Mattis marina four-star general Who led The Pentagon during The First Two years of The Trump administration , condemned -> marina
Mattis, a former Marine four-star general who led the Pentagon during the first two years of the Trump administration, condemned "the immoral, the tactically incompetent, operationally stupid and strategically foolish effort" of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, CNN reported.
So, we've got a meeting coming up next week over in Luhansk, and the big topic on the table is going to be a Marshall Plan for Ukraine. https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...p6pbxMW7A&s=19