Carl Lee27 said:See, this is exactly why these sanctions are such a massive deal! It’s not just that Europe is stopping its purchases—though there are a few small exceptions here and there—it's that the European Union is also targeting the actual insurance for the tankers. And since the vast majority of that business flows through London, which is playing by the rules of the European Union legislation in this instance, it really cuts deep. Without that layer of oversight, the Russians would basically just be stuck relying on their own fleet of tankers. https://www.yahoo.com/now/eu-aims-ta...093510777.html
Even ExxonMobil’s Russian counterpart, the biggest shipping company out of Russia, is currently dumping a third of its tankers. To be totally blunt, it's a total fire sale—they're basically slashing prices just to get rid of them. https://twitter.com/energycomment/st...GUS6YqzJA&s=19
It’s really just what I’ve been preaching for the longest time now... Americans are going to take the lead in making sure Russia gets completely pushed out of the gas market once and for all. https://twitter.com/Hoarau_J/status/...oKy8-xUfA&s=19
Carl Lee27 said:The sanctions coming out of the European Union aren't just about slapping a ban on buying oil; they go way deeper than that, cutting through the entire value chain from top to bottom. We're talking everything from insurance coverage all the way down to technical and engineering support. https://twitter.com/cbjom/status/152...jO4WiGXTw&s=19
And yeah, Shell has officially stopped buying oil from Russia. Meanwhile, you've got Canada and Slovakia together pulling in about 200,000 barrels a day—though, of course, the big question remains whether the Canadians are going to start "blending" their supply to skirt the rules. There are also these heavy rumors swirling around secondary sanctions against Iran, mostly because people assume Iran is going to start selling Russian oil as if it were their own, essentially just continuing the same pattern where Russians have been helping out Iranians in the past.
See, this is exactly why these sanctions are such a massive deal! It’s not just that Europe is stopping its purchases—though there are a few small exceptions here and there—it's that the European Union is also targeting the actual insurance for the tankers. And since the vast majority of that business flows through London, which is playing by the rules of the European Union legislation in this instance, it really cuts deep. Without that layer of oversight, the Russians would basically just be stuck relying on their own fleet of tankers. https://www.yahoo.com/now/eu-aims-ta...093510777.html
The sanctions coming out of the European Union aren't just about slapping a ban on buying oil; they go way deeper than that, cutting through the entire value chain from top to bottom. We're talking everything from insurance coverage all the way down to technical and engineering support. https://twitter.com/cbjom/status/152...jO4WiGXTw&s=19
And yeah, Shell has officially stopped buying oil from Russia. Meanwhile, you've got Canada and Slovakia together pulling in about 200,000 barrels a day—though, of course, the big question remains whether the Canadians are going to start "blending" their supply to skirt the rules. There are also these heavy rumors swirling around secondary sanctions against Iran, mostly because people assume Iran is going to start selling Russian oil as if it were their own, essentially just continuing the same pattern where Russians have been helping out Iranians in the past.
So, I was just reading that Germany is making some massive moves to cut their reliance on Russian gas down to just 10% by the middle of 2024. They're looking at rolling out four floating terminals over the next couple of years, and then they want to have two more permanent ones set up on land by 2026. It’s a huge pivot, honestly! https://www.spglobal.com/commodityin...ating-lng-rush
The terminal on Krk is running overtime. Honestly, would anyone even expect the intelligence agencies to be vetting every single person who was out there protesting so aggressively against it? It’s just not realistic to ask for that level of scrutiny. https://twitter.com/ASabadus/status/...sMFUzerMA&s=19
Carl Lee27 said:Finland has officially pulled the plug on their partnership with Russia regarding the construction of a nuclear reactor View on twitter
Well, it’s not just about the Finns, because the Russians still have quite a footprint in Canada—they actually started building a reactor over at the Paks plant this year, and there's even another one on the drawing board. Then you've got them working through a subsidiary of Skoda JS (which, just to be clear, isn't the car company, but a totally separate firm out of the Czech Republic) to build two reactors in Slovakia, though those should be getting pretty close to the finish line soon enough. They're also heavily involved in constructing three reactors in Turkey, with a fourth one already being planned.
On top of all that, they still control a massive chunk of the market when it comes to nuclear fuel.
wanderingmaker3 said:Canada isn't going to stop importing gas and oil from Russia. Someone made a point a few posts back that actually makes sense. You know what Viktor Orbán is like—he’s not about to bow down to some bureaucrats in the European Union, especially since he's fond of Vladimir Putin anyway. So, if things shift, those pipelines could easily start flowing a different direction toward us.
What exactly "makes sense" there? Thinking that pipelines running through Ukraine are going to stay operational for the next 5, 10, or even 15 years? Almost every single pipeline heading toward Europe—aside from those tiny little branches reaching out to Latvia and Finland—runs right through Ukraine or stays incredibly close to the Ukrainian border. It seems like Orbán is the only one who hasn't realized that the US is giving Europe a very short window to diversify their energy sources before the Ukrainians get the green light to just blow those pipelines sky-high. All that Russian oil exports headed West is basically living on borrowed time, and that goes for the pipelines and the ports on both the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea too.
RussianOilTracker, from what I can see, they’re tracking pretty much every single tanker hauling cargo out of Russia https://twitter.com/RuOilTracker/sta...3ElJH0lbg&s=19
Like people have been saying in this thread and even a few posts back, the Netherlands is such a massive importer of Russian oil—it either gets unloaded in Rotterdam and sent off to refineries in western Germany, or it gets processed right there at the port before heading over to western Germany again. Honestly, if the dockworkers themselves start refusing to touch any cargo coming from Russia, then the embargo is basically already working on the ground.
Besides, I'm not even entirely sure if there are pipelines running from western to eastern Germany anymore. Those refineries out east mostly rely on the northern branch of the Druzhba pipeline, so now they're going to be forced to source it either through the Baltic Sea or via the Czech Republic.
It looks like we’re seeing a soft embargo on Russian oil starting to take shape. After the Swedish people stepped up, now even the Dutch are refusing to unload cargo coming out of Russia. https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/...paG-94i9g&s=19
I mean, think about it—Rotterdam is such a massive logistical powerhouse, especially when it comes to refining crude, I mean there are literally five different refineries right there in the port alone.
There is absolutely no way we’re seeing a massive pivot toward Asia. Honestly, even if there were no war, no sanctions, or none of this chaos, those maritime routes just don't make any sense from a logistical standpoint. The second Europe stops buying oil from Russia, that entire export market is dead for them—and let's be real, that is going to happen incredibly fast. It’s the exact same story with gas, though they make less off it, and you can bet Germany and their neighbors will still be importing it for quite a few more years. Pipelines heading toward China are an eight-to-ten-year project at best, and that’s assuming China actually finds Russia more important than trading with the rest of the world. Plus, there's the question of whether they can even get those fields back online—I mean, can they really just swap out companies like Halliburton and the others? This supposed "energy superpower" isn't just dependent on the West for exports; they're also reliant on the West for a huge chunk of their actual production capabilities.
It looks like some kind of deal at the EU level might have actually gone through; word is an embargo on Russian oil is set to kick off next week, though it’ll likely be rolled out in stages—so we’re probably looking at just a partial embargo to start with. https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...96015059144704
feralcanyon73 said:The whole "Russia is collapsing" thing is just a narrative. That's the same crap Adolf was screaming from his bunker back in AD 1945.
I mean, while Putin is basically living in a bunker, banning people from leaving the country, gagging the press on data releases, seizing foreign currency, and threatening nuclear retaliation against anyone who even dares to look at him the wrong way...
steelraven74 said:Ursula and the rest of the European Union are losing their minds today because gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland have been cut off. They’re crying foul, claiming it’s blackmail and that it violates existing contracts. Funny how those contracts don't seem to matter one bit whenever we decide to freeze or seize Russian state and private assets. 🤣 It’s such a shame we can't just tap into the hypocrisy and desperation found within the EU as a primary energy source—we'd be completely energy independent overnight. 🤣 Bulgarians and Poles can stop worrying; the Commission will make sure they get their gas. Exactly where it's coming from? That part remains a mystery.
I honestly think the Poles are sitting pretty right now. I mean, they've got their own LNG terminal, and now they're linked up with that facility in Lithuania—well, once that gets busy serving the Baltic region—plus they'll have that pipeline heading toward Norway soon enough. As for the Bulgarians, I'm not totally certain about their status, at least not for the rest of this year. They have managed to secure some supply from the Azeri, and since this past summer, they've had that interconnect with the Greeks, and then early next year, they're getting that floating LNG terminal over in Alexandria, which should bring in about 6 billion cubic meters annually.
It’s honestly wild when you look at the pattern—it’s like we're slapping heavy sanctions on Mordor while doing the exact opposite for Ukraine. The European Union is basically tearing down every single barrier, wiping out tariffs, customs, and quotas left and right... https://twitter.com/VDombrovskis/sta...74203341590528