Posts by Carl Lee27

hollowdriver13 said:So, apparently Russia is somehow "thriving" under all those sanctions. You know how it goes—the folks close to Putin keep insisting they’re stronger than ever despite the West hitting them with everything they've got. But if you actually look at the numbers, the reality tells a pretty different story. Check out this comparison from May 21/22

https://census.gov/compendium/document/50801

I pulled some of the biggest drops to show just how much these industries are actually struggling right now.

Ford: -96.7% (3,700 vehicles)
Freightliner: -39.3%
ICE motors: -57%
Passenger rail cars: -59.8%
Freight cars: -51.8%
Fiberglass cables: -80.8%
Whirlpool: -58.1%
Washing machines: -59.2%
AC electric motors: -49.9%
Elevators: -34.7%
Excavators: -60%

🤣🤣🤣
It’s an absolute disaster. And that's just looking at the raw numbers—now they're starting to roll out vehicles without even having airbags. What kind of degenerate is Putin? Not only did he drag them into a war he's going to lose, but he didn't even bother preparing the country for a conflict in the first place.

Gas & Oil Thread
https://twitter.com/ben_moll/status/...llQLJIlDQ&s=19

It’s pretty wild when you look at the numbers—because all their other economic sectors are basically cratering right now, Russia is becoming even more dangerously dependent on selling off oil and gas just to keep the lights on. We're talking about those exports making up roughly 60% of their entire federal budget! It really feels like Putin is backed into a corner here, desperately trying to wrap this whole war up in the next 6 to 12 months before the oil embargoes completely tear the country apart.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/co...guriev-2022-06

Nancy Gomez26 said:Of course they won't recognize them. Kazakhstan—much like Mexico—is positioning itself to be the primary middleman for imported goods flowing into the Russian Federation, which is currently suffocating under seven rounds of sanctions. It’s a calculated dance. By playing this way, they can dodge another nineteen rounds of sanctions if the pressure increases.

I mean, let's be real, trying to become a major trading partner with Russia is going to be an absolute nightmare for any country that doesn't actually share a land border with them. You've got to consider all the maritime routes involved in the logistics too. Just look at how Lithuania is shutting down transit to Kaliningrad right now; it's just not that simple.
View on twitter

Honestly, it’s just the same old story with Russia—they can't seem to come up with anything original, so they just resort to their favorite move: copy and paste everything they find elsewhere.
https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/...-airbus-parts/

On the topic of Europe without Russian gas

Carl Lee27 said:It looks like Cheniere Energy is about to kick off construction on the next phase of their Corpus Christi terminal pretty soon, mostly because they’ve already sold out all their capacity.
Here is a quick breakdown of the US liquefaction terminals. Most of them are concentrated right over in Texas and Louisiana. These figures represent what the Department of Energy has approved for export, including shipments to countries where the US doesn't have a formal free trade agreement signed yet.

Currently operational

• Sabine Pass 1-6, 48 billion m3 per year
• Corpus Christi 1-3, 25.1 billion m3 per year
• Freeport 1-3, 22.4 billion m3 per year
• Cameron 1-3, 20.6 billion m3 per year
• Calcasie Pass 1-9, 8.3 billion m3 per year
• Cove Point, 8 billion m3 per year
• Elba Island 1-10, 3.5 billion m3 per year

Under construction

• Calcasie Pass 10-18, 8.3 billion m3 per year (September 2022)
• Golden Pass 1, 8.3 billion m3 per year (2023)
• Golden Pass 2-3, 16.6 billion m3 per year (2024)
• Plaquemines 1-24, 18.4 billion m3 per year (2024)

Approved, excluding smaller projects, and currently in various stages of closing out financial structures

• Driftwood, 38 billion m3 per year
• Grand Isle LNG, 37.2 billion m3 per year
• Alaska LNG, 27.6 billion m3 per year
• Lake Charles, 20.7 billion m3 per year
• Port Arthur, 18.6 billion m3 per year
• Dolphin, 18 billion m3 per year
• Gulf LNG, 16 billion m3 per year
• Corpus Christi Stage III, 15.8 billion m3 per year
• Plaquemines Phase 2, 14.7 billion m3 per year
• Cameron 4, 13.8 billion m3 per year
• Magnolia, 12.1 billion m3 per year
• Freeport 4, 7 billion m3 per year
• Texas LNG, 5.5 billion m3 per year
• Lake Charles 2, 3.45 billion m3 per year

(Note that Corpus Christi Stage III is 100% reserved, Plaquemines Phase 2 is at 70%, Driftwood at 35%, Lake Charles at 30%, and so on)

The government over in Sweden is looking seriously shaky right now. You've got the conservative bloc breathing down the neck of the Justice Minister, demanding they step down, while the Prime Minister is basically threatening to walk away entirely if Parliament actually follows through on the vote. It’s a dead heat, honestly—it’s anyone's game, and I wouldn't be surprised if some random group from a place like Kurdkinija ends up being the tiebreaker that tips the whole thing over the edge.
https://twitter.com/HKaaman/status/1...KK7rXYWLA&s=19

Natural Gas
https://twitter.com/GoldbergNic/stat...CxGp_JNGg&s=19

It’s a pretty brutal reality check when you genuinely believe you're some kind of major global player, only to realize just a few months later that your "no limits" allies aren't actually all that impressed with you.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/...DqId-B0Vg&s=19

casualtiger2 said:Interesting read on why gas prices are climbing.
Most people point to crude oil as the culprit, but there's a massive role played by refinery profits—and the big oil companies pulling the strings behind them.

Here’s why gas is pricier than ever despite lower oil costs

Crack expansion has always been a quiet tax on consumers, but lately, that weight has become massive. Margins hit a staggering record of nearly $55 per barrel of gas last week, according to what Bloomberg reported Monday. To put that in perspective, the crack spread averaged roughly $10.50 per barrel between 1985 and 2021—it barely even cracked $20 back when refineries were actually struggling to keep up with demand.

The crack spread has long been an extra burden shouldered by consumers, but the size of that burden has surged in recent weeks. The margin hit a record of nearly $55 per barrel of gasoline last week, Bloomberg reported Monday. By comparison, the crack spread averaged about $10.50 per barrel from 1985 to 2021, and only rarely rose above $20 when refiners were swamped with demand.

The truth is, refineries are seeing these insane profits simply because there aren't enough of them left! For years, nobody bothered to invest in new ones, all while operating costs kept climbing because of this whole green agenda push. All those theories claiming that someone is intentionally keeping refineries offline are total BS—in the US, they're running at record capacities, some hitting nearly 98%.
By the way, Russia is also a major exporter of petroleum products, including stuff like VGO which, ironically, is exactly what refineries need to keep things moving.

goldenpuma84 said:Kudos to our politicians in the EU!

They’re more than happy to screw over their own people just to please their big overseas brother. It’s sad to watch what used to be the center of the world turn into nothing more than a tiny, insignificant appendage to a colonial master—one that doesn't care about them at all and will ditch them the second they aren't useful anymore...

BRAVO!!!

Man, honestly, Europe and America haven't even needed them since the days when white people stopped fleeing across the Atlantic in massive waves.
And frankly, that’s probably the smallest bit of nonsense in this whole post.

On a different note, word on the street is that OPEC might be thinking about screwing over the Russians. Mind you, I said "word on the street"—the WSJ has missed the mark on this one several times already.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-we...ts_pos1&page=1

Word on the street is that China has officially shut down its airspace for those seized Boeing planes
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status...23621859336193

Check out this chart regarding gas, super relevant stuff...
Most of the new LNG capacity being built right now is happening here in the US. And honestly, if you look at the sheer volume of potential projects that could actually get the green light, I’d bet my bottom dollar most of those will be based in the States too. It’s pretty obvious that high energy prices in Europe are going to jumpstart a ton of projects that were previously just sitting on a desk gathering dust, especially once the European Union finally realizes they absolutely have to lock in some long-term contracts to stay afloat.
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/wp-c.../image9yix.jpg

wiredseal7 said:Yeah, exactly—sanctions usually have a loophole for buying out planes once a lease expires, which is what Delta Air Lines used here.

But we’re talking about maybe 8 planes out of 400.
Plus, a Boeing 777 is probably overkill for short domestic hops, so that plays into the decision too.

I wonder what they’ll even do with them. Buying them just to let them rot isn't an investment. Maybe they'll try re-registering them under a foreign carrier to make them useful again.

As for the price, if the leasing companies aren't losing money, the insurers have every incentive to push for a sale—they might even chip in to settle things.

Premiums are going up regardless of whatever Delta Air Lines does. The risk isn't coming from the airline itself; it's the sanctions and counter-sanctions. That risk stays tied to Russia no matter how much diplomacy improves.

Right now, they're flying them over to countries that haven't jumped on the sanctions bandwagon, mostly places like Turkey:
A333 (RA-73782/VQ-BQX)
A333 (RA-73783/VQ-BQY)
A333 (RA-73785/VQ-BPI)
A333 (RA-73787/VQ-BPK)
A333 (RA-73788/VP-BDD)
A333 (RA-73789/VP-BDE)

It looks like the Russians are trying to smooth things over however they can, since the A320 and 737 families are basically keeping their domestic flights running, and even their homegrown planes, like the SSJ100, rely so heavily on parts from the West that they probably won't stay flight-ready for very long anyway. If nothing else, at least they can use them to scavenge parts from planes sitting in boneyards.

https://travelradar.aero/russia-to-b...tu-204-planes/

The Democratic Party in Sweden is actually backing the move to join NATO
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...24L_DYV1Q&s=19
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...-hKB4zJ9A&s=19

Anthony Hill5 said:Automobile sales in Russia have plummeted by a staggering 78% during the fourth month, marking what is quite possibly the most catastrophic decline in automotive sales since record-keeping even began.

To put this collapse into perspective, a mere 32,706 vehicles were sold, whereas during the same period last year, the market saw a substantial 151,964 units move off the lots.

Even more telling is the situation at Ford, which was forced into a collective annual shutdown from April through late December simply because they couldn't get their hands on necessary production parts; consequently, they managed to sell only 8,506 vehicles, also suffering a massive 78% drop in sales.

https://www.vedomosti.ru/auto/news/2...v-rossii-upali

The idea seems to be that they'll produce fewer cars, but hopefully higher quality ones. It's all about making a comeback for a solid, classic
Moskvitch.

Carl Lee27 said:Look, if we're talking about the biggest exporters on the planet, you've got Australia, Qatar, and the USA. And honestly, out of those three, Americans have by far the most potential to actually ship stuff over to Europe.

Now, Canada LNG isn't even exporting yet. Like, at all. They're currently building their only terminal up in British Columbia, which is backed by major players like Japan, China, Malaysia, and Korea. So, if any shipments eventually start coming out of Canada, they'll mostly likely just end up flowing through US terminals anyway.
Norway is also kind of a minor player in this specific context, just one terminal pushing maybe 6 to 7 billion annually.

That really leaves Qatar and Australia to pick up the slack, and they'll definitely cover some of the demand. I can't say for sure about Australia, but Qatar is actually planning to ramp up production. The catch—and it's a bit of a headache—is that just like the Russians, they much prefer those long-term contracts, and a huge chunk of their capacity is already locked down for Asia.

It looks like Qatar has a few strings attached for Germany
https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...es-2022-05-09/

It looks like the Canadians are pushing for a five-year exemption from the embargo. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if a few other countries decide to jump on board with that too.
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status...FyK0DGOOQ&s=19

I’d honestly be shocked if Russia didn't respond by just cutting off the gas entirely, because let's face it, that’s pretty much the only real lever they have left to pull, unless they decide to go down the nuclear route. The folks over in Europe have actually been pretty clever and found ways to block their oil exports almost everywhere, leaving them with nothing but those pipelines heading toward China. And you know it won't be long before the Americans step in and make their own move on that situation too.
https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/s...4wKWwq9vA&s=19

What’s the Russian response to this? Are they just going to shut off the gas supply entirely?
https://gcaptain.com/ship-insurers-c...ia-sovcomflot/

wearydriver40 said:I'm not following, but what is so special about Ukraine anyway? Since when did everyone start obsessing over that place to the point where all of Europe is ready to go broke just to support them? And why the sudden rush to fix everything at light speed? It’s ridiculous. America wasn't even allowed to import a single rifle, yet they're handing over hundreds of tanks to Ukraine? Look, I get it—aggression, madness, whatever—but let's stop with the fairy tales. What is actually so special about Ukraine to the rest of the world?

It's Russia bleeding out through a thousand cuts, man.

Americans and even the Wagner group over in Africa
https://twitter.com/Halsrethink/stat...5-7YW9AHA&s=19