Posts by Andrew Barrett4

The idea of quantitative easing could dim prices

I honestly don't get why everyone gets so worked up about playing the price movements in a bubble. At the end of the day, all that matters is when you get in and when you get out. You just decide for yourself when it’s time to lock in those gains, much like how dustyheron5 did back when he offloaded half his silver holdings—I assume he was trying to hedge his bets before that Bernie Sanders speech 🤷. It doesn't really matter if you didn't catch the absolute widest possible swing in value. As long as the spread is positive, covers your costs, and puts some money in your pocket, that's really all there is to it.

analogharbor44 said:And what happens when the grid goes down, you're sitting on a pile of scrap metal, and the local Walmart can't even sell you groceries because their registers are dead?😂

I guess that’s exactly why I came to this conclusion back in the spring—watching all the chaos during those election cycles over in Europe and tracking how these big banks operate. It seems to me a traditional bank run isn't really a thing anymore. Not in this digital age, anyway.

All they really need to do is freeze cash withdrawals and maybe slap some limits on international transfers, while keeping credit card swipes at the grocery store or online payments working just fine. And et voilà, the system stays upright.

Robert Vaughn10 said:Once cash loses its value, it might actually become interesting because interest rates would have to climb. For instance, if you’re holding ten-year Treasuries yielding 10% while inflation is hovering at 15%, that could look like a massive win if the government manages to slash the deficit and stall inflation in the meantime. It’s a plausible scenario; they won't have the money to spend anyway, so deflationary pressures will linger, keeping cash somewhat valuable. Creating enough capacity for hyperinflation is difficult when most people are broke.
If a new credit cycle were to somehow kickstart itself, the story changes entirely.
On the other hand, it's unlikely that stocks will fall significantly below the value of cash in an inflationary environment. You just need to identify which stocks are undervalued, much like how gold and silver were positioned around 2000.

I think I'm on the same page as you.
It feels to me like most of this newly injected liquidity just disappears into a black hole of sovereign debt and interbank transactions. Because of that, we might be stuck waiting quite a while until enough money volume actually accumulates to spark a new cycle. Until then, we’ll probably deal with deflationary pressure, or stagflation, or biflation, or whatever fancy term people decide to use to describe asset differentiation.

Once it finally does start moving, we could very quickly flip to the opposite extreme—galloping inflation. Historically, the remedy for that has always been hiking interest rates. Across the board, including on government bonds. So, that seems pretty certain. But then again, as with everything else: timing is everything.😁

Since everyone is throwing names around now😁:
I'm genuinely curious 'who's gonna have the balls' to tame the inflation beast, the way Paul Volcker did.

and total independence, in every sense of the word, I suppose.

Antimatter, huh... I don't know. It sounds like one of those things that starts out as a fascinating concept in a physics textbook and ends up being something used to sell overpriced tech gadgets or high-concept sci-fi movies. I guess there’s a certain logic to it, but I find myself wondering how much of this is actual breakthrough science and how much is just people getting excited about something they can't quite wrap their heads around. Maybe it's revolutionary, maybe it's just noise. I suppose we'll see.

Someone really should have told that poor soul—and by that, I mean someone who’s clearly struggling a bit on the mental side of things—about this, after I happened to stumble upon their post while scrolling through some comments:

I was reading this piece on biflation earlier—just one of those deep dives that makes you question if anyone actually knows what’s going on with the economy. It’s a heavy topic, honestly. Most people just talk about inflation like it’s some singular monster under the bed, but this concept of biflation adds a whole other layer of complexity to the mess we're dealing with. It's that weird, almost contradictory phenomenon where you see certain prices skyrocketing while others stay flat or even dip, creating this distorted sense of reality. I guess it’s easy to get lost in the noise when the data feels like it’s pulling you in two different directions at once. Maybe it's just how the gears are grinding lately, or maybe we're looking at a fundamental shift in how value is being distributed. Either way, it feels like we're navigating through a fog, trying to make sense of a landscape that keeps changing its shape right as you think you've mapped it out. It's enough to make a person feel a bit weary about the whole thing. Another comment. Let's go through this from the top.

Quincy:

Quincy: I mean, if you look back at history, gold confiscation isn't some new concept in the States; it’s actually happened before. I guess I’ve gone and lost my gold somewhere out on a hiking trail. I always made a point of keeping it on me, but apparently, that wasn't enough. Just one of those things, I suppose. I suppose we shouldn't act too surprised by the talk of gold confiscation; if history tells us anything, it’s that the US government has been down this road before. It isn't exactly a new playbook for them. I guess I lost my gold. Just out there taking a walk through the woods.To be honest, I've always just kept it on me. 🤣🤣🤣

I guess he ended up having his gold confiscated by the feds. 😂

If that poor soul had known anything about antimatter... I mean, things would have been different, wouldn't they? Maybe. It’s hard to say. I guess if he’d actually understood the implications of that kind of energy, his whole trajectory might have shifted. But then again, most people just stumble through life without a clue how much power is actually sitting right under their noses. Just a thought, I suppose. 🤣

I guess you're a skeptic too, though maybe just in that healthy, moderate kind of way. 😁

it's

a true Oracle animal farm😂🤣

anyway, does anyone actually know why "In God We Trust" is printed on US dollars?

Ever since they ditched the gold standard, I guess it's more like: In Go(L̶ )d we trust 😂

it’s like your little buddy thinks he’s got all the answers, but honestly? I think he just wants me to hand him his dignity on a silver platter 😁

Benjamin King2 said:Honestly, just buy out a whole poultry farm and turn all those chickens into solid gold—I promise you nobody is going to be scanning individual birds with a metal detector. 😁

those little guys are basically walking gold bullion anyway 😍

🤣

Let me reiterate, just like I promised Lee Chanu

1.) We have laws that allow for the seizure of gold—laws that basically state the government can trigger confiscation protocols under "special circumstances." The problem is, they never actually define what those "special circumstances" are. Federal Financial Regulations - Section 26
2.) And since 2011, we’ve had this NEW regulation stating that Americans need specific permits to trade or hold precious metals held outside the country.

The whole thing was pushed because people maintain multi-asset accounts—currency, bonds, stocks, gold in a safe deposit box—somewhere like Switzerland or wherever, and until now, they were only required to report cash to cover interest taxes. Now, suddenly, they’ve decided that gold needs to be reported too.

I guess it’s strange, though, because you don't earn interest on physical gold, so there isn't really anything for the IRS to tax. 🙂

This snippet from the attachment is short enough to translate. Even the title is pretty telling, honestly:
Preparing for gold confiscation

Quote:

Back in March, the Jersey-based precious metals dealer “Goldmoney” informed its American clients that they would temporarily stop opening new accounts for U.S. residents. Existing accounts could still carry out transactions. This was due to an upcoming regulatory change by the SEC. Fast forward six months, and that "temporary" freeze on new accounts has become permanent. Goldmoney is currently locked in a legal battle with the SEC, which argues that a specific license is required to sell gold to American citizens. In March of this year, Goldmoney, which is based out of Jersey, decided that American citizens could no longer open accounts with them for trading metals. This decision followed the implementation of a controversial rule introduced by the SEC—something similar to the FINRA. Existing accounts seem to be functioning without issue for now. We are now six months down the line, and Goldmoney has shifted its stance from a "temporary" restriction to a permanent one. They are essentially clashing with the SEC, which maintains that selling or holding gold requires formal authorization for Americans. 👏

This move is particularly glaring because, technically, you don't need a permit just to own gold in the States; you only need one if you're actually in the business of selling it. BUT, since every purchase of investment-grade gold is recorded at the point of sale, the Treasury can easily track who owns what. To me, it all looks like they are laying the groundwork for potential confiscation measures—making it a very real possibility.

Personally, I don't see much sense in playing along with these absurd rules. [I'm calling it now! 🙂 ]
So, buying through another country or using a different passport isn't some wild exaggeration; it's just reacting to the reality of the situation.

Anthony Evans78 said:Andrew Barrett4, just a couple of quick thoughts from my side 🙂
If you're looking to lose as little as possible over the next decade, nothing beats holding physical precious metals. At the very least, you’ll preserve your purchasing power, and if everything completely falls apart... well, all bets are off 🙂
Secondly, getting your hands on the physical stuff is actually pretty easy nowadays; you just have to do a little digging. It was easy even back when things were uncertain here before we joined the United Nations. And if you have to look outside the country, you don't even need to 😁

I look at it this way:
so, if you take that classic asset allocation and just strip out bonds—because I don't hold any.
What’s left is real estate, land, precious metals, securities, and cash.
When I talk about total assets, I include my pension and my debt (like a mortgage and things like that).

However, I also categorize them differently:
conservative assets, medium risk, and high risk.
Each category is handled in a different way.

Regarding cashing out physical stuff, the issue isn't where to do it, but whether there is enough spread between what you paid + fees and the price at the moment you actually need the money. Around here, there are plenty of places to sell, and don't even get me started on Craigslist. 😁

But the trust factor during the sale isn't really an issue for me. It's the buying part. I wouldn't dare buy anything through some random classified ad. With authorized dealers, they keep records of who bought what. That's why I prefer going the safe, certified route, even if it means looking abroad. Given all the complications I mentioned.

dustyheron5 said:Well done—you have the mindset of a serious investor. You might not strike it rich overnight, but your grasp of the fundamentals is solid.🎉 Just stay away from those "finfluencers" who preach putting everything into one single asset; if you follow them, you're asking for trouble.😂

Are you kidding me? 😢

Honestly? I’d actually be happy if I managed to lose as little wealth as possible over the next decade.

.....

Also, that person over in the other thread is implying that metal doesn't have any intrinsic value. (In general, I've noticed that people coming out of the University of California and similar institutions tend to be pretty skeptical. Here's another example.) They mentioned the "biggest bubble ever." That's not exactly news, I suppose, assuming the timeline is long enough. ☕
But just because a bubble is inflating doesn't mean you can't ride that train and make a little money along the way. Whether you're holding physical bullion, paper gold, mining stocks, or ETFs—those are all different kinds of "Pokémon," each with its own set of pros and cons.

The downside of physical (at least in my experience) is that it's incredibly hard to time the bottom. There are two main reasons for that:
a) Because you have to plan trips to a different state or cross a border to shop, which means taking a day off just to stay under the radar of the IRS. (Luckily, I live near the border, but still.) It’s not exactly convenient.
b) And if you want small denominations, there's always a shortage, so you have to pre-order. You basically just have to guess the date...
Physical is also harder to liquidate. You need an actual exit strategy. Then there are the acquisition costs, which you have to recoup through price appreciation, not to mention everything else. That's why, for instance, I haven't bought anything since the summer; I'm just waiting.

Paper gold is MUCH easier to sell. But the flaw with that particular "Pokémon" is that when the big players start jumping ship, you might find yourself unable to offload it to anyone. Which implies you have to monitor the situation constantly and time your escape perfectly.

A lot of the goldbug websites don't recommend paper gold. However, in my opinion, it's a perfectly fine way to turn a profit, even if the risk is higher. That is, provided you aren't greedy. Timing is everything. 😍

Regardless, there isn't any asset out there that will make you "set for life" while you sleep. Not even precious metals. And that whole "buy and forget" mantra is usually more about minimizing tax headaches than actually forgetting about the investment. Once you've committed to something, you really ought to manage it. If someone isn't prepared for that, they probably shouldn't be getting involved at all. "Nothing to worry about" is often just another way of saying you have nothing left to lose. 😂

Here’s a little more food for thought:

If you manage to keep that metal far enough away from the tax man's eyes, I guess that just means it isn't officially logged as an asset. Maybe that's the trick to it all, though I suspect nothing stays hidden forever.
When people talk about assets not being part of the marital estate during a divorce, it basically means those specific things aren't up for grabs when you start splitting everything up. I guess it boils down to the distinction between "marital property" and "separate property." In the US, most states follow some version of community property or equitable distribution laws. Usually, anything you acquired or earned during the marriage is considered joint property—meaning it’s part of that shared pot that gets divided. However, if an asset isn't included in that mass, it means it stays entirely with one spouse. This typically happens with things like an inheritance you received privately, a gift given specifically to just one of you, or property you owned long before you ever said "I do." If you had a savings account at Chase before the wedding and you never mixed those funds with your joint paycheck, that money usually remains yours alone. It’s a bit of a legal gray area sometimes, though; if you start using your pre-marital savings to pay off a joint mortgage, a judge might argue you "commingled" the funds, effectively turning separate property into marital property. It can get messy. But in short, if it doesn't enter the marital estate, the other person has no legal claim to it.
What’s the takeaway here? I guess you could say: first come, first served—and the prize is her. Or maybe just, whoever gets there first wins the girl. It’s one of those old-school sayings, isn't it? A bit cynical, perhaps, but that's how things often play out in the real world. 😍

So, let me ask you all again, just for the sake of clarity: who exactly are you planning to tell, and if you even bother to say anything at all? 😬 🤣

Imagine a scenario where you just stay quiet—don't say a word to anyone, don't vent, don't leave a trail—and then something happens to you. It’s an interesting thought, I guess. Maybe it's about that specific kind of isolation where you carry everything internally, thinking you're being strong or just avoiding the hassle of explaining yourself to people who won't get it anyway. But there's a certain weight to it, isn't there? If you don't signal what's going on, then when things finally go sideways, it feels like it comes out of nowhere, even if you saw it coming. It's almost like a self-imposed vacuum. You end up standing there, staring at the fallout, wondering if the silence was worth the peace it bought you in the moment. I don't know. It feels a bit heavy to dwell on, but it's a situation that probably happens more often than we care to admit.

I’m mostly just messing around here, but I suppose you really ought to factor in those little "personal variables"—you know, things like your current life situation or whatever long-term plan you've got mapped out—whenever you're making investment decisions. It's easy to get lost in the numbers, but maybe the context of your own life matters more than the charts suggest. I guess it's worth considering.

It’s probably best to stash metals somewhere a detector can’t reach. Maybe inside some wood or even down a well 🤣

By the way, I recently got into a bit of a debate with my husband about this. He isn’t exactly a fan of precious metals—he doesn't really believe in anything that doesn't have "tangible value" just sitting there. In investment terms, he’s more of a "frugal builder" type; he’d rather just buy land or build something. To him, a brick is a brick. If I start talking about how bricks don't actually create value but instead just generate ongoing costs, we'll be here all night because he immediately pivots to "utility." (I suppose if you read between the lines, there's a lot of these kinds of debates before any major purchase, since investment decisions aren't solo acts—they're joint ventures)

In a last-ditch effort to make him understand, I tried explaining it using a Pokémon analogy 🤣
Every one has its own "powers," but they also have their "demons"—basically, pros and cons. You pick your weapons, or your Pokémon, based on the situation you're facing. And right now, the situation feels like one where you simply need to have some gold and silver "Pokémon" in your lineup. There's a very real chance things could play out in a way where you won't have much to pay with if you haven't prepared.

The downside of metals really just comes down to their physical nature—the fact that metal is metal and has its own set of properties

>>just smaller bullion or coins.
>>store them where they stay out of sight.
>>never keep all your metal in one single spot.
>>and of course, never put all your wealth into one single asset class (including metals).

Anthony Evans78 said:If I buy one gram every month, does that mean each individual gram comes with its own certificate and sits in some vault somewhere?
Do I need to schedule an appointment? Why would I need to do that?

How, and why?

Just so we don't all show up at the exact same time, I guess.

😁

Robert Vaughn10 said:Velocity could continue its descent; what actually matters is the scale of that drop relative to inflation. Take the US, for instance—if we used the pre-1980 Federal Reserve methodology, inflation would have been sitting around 6% back in early 2012. That discrepancy alone highlights just how much money was printed, considering prices should have plummeted given the falling velocity and the contraction in the money supply.

Which basically means 'hidden' inflation is already way higher than what's being reported, though God knows exactly how high. And that's before you even factor in the endless money printing...

Also, while there’s a general 'roadmap' provided (whether it’s optional or, as dustyheron5 puts it, orchestrated QE), I can't seem to find any actual, relevant short-term forecasts or potential scenarios for the next two years that go into any real detail beyond just saying: "inflation is coming." I'm not seeing a clear timeline anywhere.

Since these two points are weighing on my mind quite a bit, I'm heading to a lecture next weekend specifically on this topic.

It's a talk by Edin Mujagic, a monetary economist at Harvard University, who is also a well-known columnist, journalist, and (formerly) blogger in North America, focusing on inflation. I'm interested not just because he's an expert, but mostly because he's independent. Plus, he mentioned he has some sort of forecast. I'm just not entirely sure if he meant for the US, Europe, or perhaps the "entire world." 🤷

dustyheron5 said:http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/eco...f-control.html

A few telling statements from the mainstream media—all pointing toward a coordinated effort by the world's major central banks to implement massive monetary easing.

Honestly, this might just be a tactic to sidestep🙄 hyperinflation:
they loosen the reins just a tiny bit here and a little bit there, never committing to specific dates or clear amounts. I guess they're operating on the logic that if they sneak it through the cracks, nobody will notice.😍 🙂

Thanks, I fixed that earlier

The bottom line is that they’re way more stable than the EU across all the metrics we just went over
and if we're talking about who goes down first, I guess the Euro would crumble long before the Dollar does

Paul Peterson4 said:There’s a pretty interesting angle to this whole Dollar vs Euro debate: it really comes down to who's going to blink first. The US is running this massive trade deficit, whereas the EU is a bit of a mixed bag—you've got Northern Europe exporting everything while Mediterranean countries import most of their stuff. But overall, the EU manages to cover its own demand for goods and materials through domestic production, while the US is basically stuck depending on Chinese people and others to supply them with goods in exchange for those greenbacks.

All the major currencies right now—Dollar, Euro, Pound, Renminbi, you name it—are essentially being "printed." Or, more accurately, we're seeing massive amounts of money being digitally generated without any real backing (well, if you count newly issued government bonds as backing). It feels like we're drifting toward that Nostradamus idea of funding a state budget through primary issuance—except, obviously, there are banks in the middle taking their cut, often state-run ones at that. Unless some miracle happens and the economy just takes off, it's a safe bet that cranking out new money will lead to inflation. I'm not talking about that crazy, hyperinflationary mess you saw in America, but we're looking at maybe 5%, 10%, or even 15% annual inflation—though they'll probably try to hide the true scale using some shady statistical gymnastics early on.

For now, I’m sticking with the Euro since my expenses are in Euros, and honestly, I find it more stable than the Dollar. If the Arabs & CO start selling oil for something other than USD—and hey, the Iranians are already doing it—then the US printing press won't be able to tax the entire world anymore. That would trigger even bigger trade issues because, frankly, the US won't have much left to pay for imports. They'll be forced to bring manufacturing back to the States, which is going to be an expensive, long-term headache. As it stands, the Fed is basically the biggest buyer of T-bills. Once the Chinese stop buying them, pretty much everyone else might follow suit.

The pension fund situation is also worth watching. Traditionally, one of the largest institutional investors stays well away from PM. Lately, though, they've been taking heavy hits on government bonds—which are supposed to be the "safe" bet, assuming you follow the legal mandates on where that capital can go. If they even direct a tiny fraction of their capital toward PM, it could send the price skyrocketing. Right now, they're struggling to find decent places to park money; between playing poker with the Greeks and worrying about the Spanish, they're facing actual negative interest rates from the Germans. At this rate, they'll be handing out starvation pensions.

Don't forget that back in 2012, Americans were meeting 83% of their energy demand from domestic sources. That’s the highest amount we've seen since 1991. click and click.

They have a functional, cohesive state, unlike Europe, which seems only superficially unified and suffers from huge internal divides.

The economy is incredibly flexible, whereas many EU countries act somewhat semi-socialist, where reacting to shifting market conditions tends to be slow.

And then there was this past summer; when the Euro dropped, it was a real lesson in just how much 'mass' actually trusts the dollar (even if it's just a choice between the lesser of two evils 😁). It showed what being a global reserve currency truly means. I honestly expected people to rush toward every other currency except the dollar. Wrong.

So, I guess you just have to weigh all that up.

I suspect America is stronger than most people realize.