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Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Sep 28, 2012

rapidranger54 said:I have been following this thread, and I must admit it is quite engaging for someone who isn't an economist by trade, but simply follows these matters out of pure curiosity. However, there are a few points I cannot quite grasp. I will jump in briefly to pose a question, though I will likely end up looking foolish...
The entire situation regarding fiat currency and the inflationary pressures exerted by central banks—which politicians pressure to print unbacked money just to maintain some semblance of "domestic peace" or economic stability—is clear enough to me.
It is also obvious that this results in the erosion of purchasing power. I am certainly not young enough to be unaware of how much one could buy with a hundred dollars decades ago compared to what fifty dollars buys today. It is the same principle.
It stands to reason that people "flee" from paper money in favor of gold. After all, it is a millennia-old alternative that serves as the most efficient way to preserve the value of one's savings...
But I am somewhat perplexed by one fact: the amount of investment gold in circulation increases every single day. In the US alone, perhaps 100 kilos of gold from old family jewelry probably find their way to buyback stations every day to be converted into investment grade. And that is to say nothing of what is being pulled from the mines...
How, then, can we expect the price of something to rise when its market supply grows daily?
Ultimately, both gold and paper money are symbols. Behind the dollar stands America and her economy; behind gold stands a thousand years of reliability. Who stands behind the Euro? The Germans? The Greeks?🙂I shall stop here before I appear too ignorant.

To put it extremely simply:
markets grow because demand grows—driven by things like population increases or rising living standards.

Demand rises
both through actual utility (think traditional gold markets in places like India or China, or people just trying to hedge against inflation caused by money printing and low interest rates)
and through speculation (like, say, reacting to general global uncertainty).

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Sep 26, 2012

dustyheron5 said:You're absolutely right—if Germany (and the rest of the world) enters a recession, it’s better to hold onto your ammunition, namely the dollar; though, once again, Benjamin isn't a fan of that🤣 and has been quite vocal about pushing us away from the dollar and toward risk-on assets...😁

No smart man joins forces with whatever evil power😛 ends up winning.😂

Regarding QE3, this pullback was entirely expected. We'll see where things stand with metals around October 10th. It was similar last time during QE2—metals rallied leading up to the announcement, followed by a minor correction immediately after, before resuming a fierce rally... I see no reason why this time would be any different.😍

If you want my personal take on this... I guess it’s hard to say for sure without more data, but here's how I see things. I guess if... It’s really not even a question.

We’ve already touched on this topic before, I think. I find myself agreeing with the general sentiment, and I’ve basically positioned myself exactly how Mizuzul described—just sitting on the sidelines for now. To be honest, I haven't bought a single thing since this past summer; I'm just holding onto my cash. Part of that is a choice, I suppose, but part of it feels forced, given that the inevitable War of Ruza is looming over my household anyway. 😬 🤣)

From where I’m sitting, if 2011 turned out to be a profitable year, it probably didn't have much to do with things actually getting better on the ground. I suspect it was more about the fallout from those heavy budget cuts back in 2010 than any actual improvement in the general economy. Maybe it just felt like a relief after the squeeze, but I wouldn't go calling it a genuine recovery.

It’s not just a theory anymore; you can actually feel it happening. It's becoming palpable. And man, once it really starts to settle in... I’ve been looking over the latest numbers on industrial orders, and honestly, it’s hard to say much for certain without getting ahead of myself. Things feel a bit stagnant, I guess. There isn't a massive surge, but there isn't a total collapse either—it’s just that heavy, mid-cycle drift that makes you wonder where the momentum actually went. Maybe we're just seeing a temporary lull as companies wait for more clarity from the Fed, or maybe the appetite for large-scale capital expenditure is just cooling off across the board. It feels like everyone is holding their breath, waiting to see if the macro environment stabilizes before committing to the next big round of equipment buys. I don't know. It’s probably just one of those periods where the data sits in this grey area, neither signaling a boom nor a bust. Just a lot of quiet waiting around.I'm also keeping an eye on... The staffing industry. I guess you could call it what it is—just another cog in the machine. It’s a bit of a cynical way to make a living, really, just moving people around like pieces on a board to fill gaps for companies that don't want the commitment. Maybe it's necessary, maybe not, but it's definitely a strange corner of the economy. When it comes to those short-term gigs, the industry reacts incredibly fast. I guess what happens is that as soon as things start picking up, companies immediately flood the market with zero-hour contracts—you know the type, where they basically tell you, "we'll keep you around as long as we need you, but the second things slow down, you're out." It’s a bit of a revolving door. And it works exactly the same way in reverse; once the volume starts dropping, you see the layoffs hitting hard within a month. It’s just how the cycle goes.

Right now? Both are in a coma.

It's all pretty clear, I suppose.

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Sep 25, 2012

Gerald Chavez7 said:I'm still scouting for a broker... if anyone has recommendations, I'm all ears.

I'll likely stick with US-based firms, but I've got questions regarding wire transfers, security, and the whole ordeal...

Brokers?
It really depends on what you're after...

Stocks?
Bonds?
Index funds?
Goldman Sachs?
Options?
ETFs?
Niche instruments (like turbo's, speeders, or sprinters)?

Also, which markets are we talking about?

Personally, for smaller amounts, I use Charles Schwab, but for larger sums, I tend toward Fidelity. They're essentially doing the same thing, just with different commission structures—the first one is cheaper for smaller trades. For indices, or basically investing in pre-made portfolios, I use Vanguard services.

There's actually this comparison tool (it's called brokerrates) that focuses exclusively on brokerage services. It gets updated daily with everything—news, fees, changes, legislation, whatever. Unfortunately, it's all in Dutch :/. The first section covers recent news. Below that, you'll find an overview of the major brokerage houses. You can even run calculations for the fee structures.

I honestly don't know why Americans are so starved for comparative tools like this (at least, I haven't been able to find a single decent one), but I was searching specifically because I wanted to compare costs 🤷.

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Sep 20, 2012

Stick to coins or small certified bullion; don't go trusting any random street dealers.
Then again, even with those, you've got to watch out for scams—like how some series from Krugerrand after, what was that date again, 🤔 say, click...

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Sep 18, 2012

I think we missed the point here:
The fact that we’ve ended up doubling down on real estate again, simply because there aren't any better plays on the table, suggests we're running out of steam. It might be time to circle back to Zlatan Ibrahimović's golden whale. 🤣

Anyway, I remember it like it was yesterday—I've been stuck hovering around the real estate market for more years than I care to admit.

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Sep 18, 2012

So, following that summary of the Boeing 747, someone asked how we’re all supposed to hedge our positions together.
Personally, I’m looking for some kind of differentiation beyond the obvious stuff, like commodities or energy.
The standard ideas just seem to be running dry.

Joe caught a golden whale once, and the whale tells him:
- Please let me go, because I don't just grant three wishes like some goldfish—I can grant an endless amount of them...
And Joe's response?
- Forget the wishes—take me straight to Tiffany's.

😁

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Sep 18, 2012

The whole discussion has veered completely off course.

I wasn't necessarily talking about a mortgage, though. I was thinking more along the lines of a fixed-rate loan—say, a 15-year term. Those rates still seem pretty reasonable. It’s basically a high-stakes gamble. I mean, who knows if you'll even be around or how things will look by the end of that period?
But whatever. I'll probably just end up looking like I'm encouraging people to gamble with money they don't actually own. I guess I learned my lesson from that other thread >> forget that I said it... 🤣

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Sep 17, 2012

So, what’s everyone’s take on using debt as an inflation hedge?

Fighting fire with gasoline, I suppose... 🙂

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Sep 15, 2012

dustyheron5 said:I’m not betting on anything, nor do I have a single "favorite" scenario I'm certain will play out—instead, I simply monitor the ground reality and see who comes out on top...

Regarding stagflation, I have to say it looks like the most likely outcome right now—and don't assume the sheer volume of dollars is the main driver here...

The real player is the Velocity of money—a factor almost nobody mentions... except perhaps Martin Armstrong and a few others...

For anyone interested in how things look regarding gold, silver, and equities, take a look at price movements in the USA between 1966 and 1982—otherwise known as the secular bear market...😉

You can reach out via PM for my analysis.

Unfortunately, you aren't the only one who feels that way (though there hasn't been much chatter about it lately)

As for the dollar, once things settle down a bit, I suspect it'll hold its ground for a while before it eventually drops back down to meet 'that certain group of people.'

Edit: shoot me a DM

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Sep 13, 2012

I’ve gotta say, this current governor is honestly pretty easy on the eyes, so I don't even bother listening to half of what he says 😍

Jokes aside, all this frantic shuffling from metals into currencies and stocks whenever news of this magnitude breaks... I guess it just highlights how neurotic and insecure investors actually are. It’s definitely not true that everyone actually knows how to 'ride the wave.'

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Sep 8, 2012

I think I lost my train of thought there, I totally tripped over my own words🤔

It’s not really an ultimate asset, more like just... an asset, I guess.
The best way to handle it? Probably bury it deep and just try to forget you ever owned it for a while.

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Sep 8, 2012

I suppose using confiscation as a tool makes sense when you're trying to put out fires caused by runaway inflation or a collapsing currency.

Take the era of Franklin Roosevelt 1933 PreExecutive order no, for example.

At least, that was the justification they used at the time 😁

(And just for context, I wonder what kind of situation we might actually be facing right now 😬)

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Sep 8, 2012

vividgull10 said:What even are M. F. and FSN?

I'm guessing Marc Faber and Financial Sense News Hour.

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Sep 8, 2012

hollowmoose21 said:Listening to M. F. over on FSN today, and honestly, it feels like I’m not the only one sweating the possibility of some future gold confiscation. 😁

I suppose we’re looking at a pivot toward Nestlé now? It feels like one of those inevitable shifts where the conversation just drifts from one massive conglomerate to the next. I guess it makes sense, though—if you're going to track the movers and shakers of global consumer goods, you might as well go straight to the source. Maybe it's about seeing how they handle the current market volatility or just dissecting their supply chain logic. I don't know. It seems like a heavy topic to dive into, but I'm willing to follow along if that's where the consensus is heading.

So, I've been sitting here weighing my options, and I can't help but wonder if I should just take that capital and sink it into a decent metal detector instead. Maybe it’s a ridiculous thought—probably—but there's something to be said for hunting for something tangible, even if it's just a bit of lost copper or an old coin buried in some park in Chicago. It feels more honest than chasing whatever the next market fluctuation might be. Or maybe I'm just being cynical about everything else. Who knows? I guess we'll see. 🤣🤣

If you happen to stumble upon something... I mean, honestly, who is actually going to go out of their way to report you? It’s not like there's some massive task force sitting around waiting to flag every little thing. I guess it just depends on how much trouble you're looking to stir up, but most people are probably too busy with their own lives to care. Maybe. 😬 $.$ :kassa:

It’s kind of funny how history repeats itself, isn't it? I guess we saw something pretty similar happen back in the day when gold became this massive political hot potato over in the Netherlands. They basically passed the Emergency Financial Transactions Act, which gave the government the power to seize private assets from citizens, whether they were sitting at home or traveling abroad, if certain "emergency conditions" were met. And, of course, because nothing in government is ever straightforward, a special commission was left to decide exactly what those "emergencies" actually entailed. It's all very nebulous, I suppose. 😁.

After that, things really started picking up on the selling side—it felt like they were using this somewhat subtle strategy to move volume. I guess you could say it was a calculated push, though maybe it wasn't immediately obvious to everyone watching. 😁Even during those rough patches back in the late seventies and early eighties, when PM prices were climbing through the roof, things still held steady.

To put it simply—it looks like people have been offloading their gold regardless of what the economic trends actually suggest. I guess you could say the market signal isn't matching the underlying data, which feels a bit strange, if you ask me. Maybe they're just looking for liquidity, or maybe there's something else moving the needle that we haven't quite pinned down yet. It’s hard to say for sure, but the pattern seems pretty clear: the selling is happening no matter what the charts are doing.

The fallout from all this is that you’re rarely going to find an older investor—someone who actually remembers how things used to work—who’s willing to sink more than 10% of their net worth into physical assets. It doesn't even have to be because they're playing a defensive game; I guess it's just become the standard mindset.

By the way, that provision is still on the books. Like I mentioned before, it can be triggered whenever those emergency situations arise.
I suppose there’s some relevance to be found in the Emergency Financial Transactions Act of 1978, specifically looking at Article 26. I can't say for certain how much weight it carries in the current climate, but it's worth a thought, I guess. Maybe it matters more than we think, though I'm probably overanalyzing it.

There’s also some physical evidence—fairly recent, actually—suggesting that the Netherlands is basically prepping the ground for a potential seizure of PM. If anyone's actually interested in the details, I could probably walk you through it.

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Aug 20, 2012

Rothschild US dollar shortshort

I guess you could look at it this way.
Take a little corner florist over on 6th Avenue in NYC, for example. paulson-soros-gold.

Maybe things aren't as simple as they seem, but who knows?

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Jul 21, 2012

Lately, it seems like all I hear is this "crazy news" about how people are getting creative, fueled by the popularity of PM during these uncertain times.

ss-gairsoppa-shipwreck-38-million-in-silver 😬

Or, take that story from an overseas forum about how the wealthy classes in Spain used to flee en masse to escape the regime, burying their gold everywhere along the way. A lot of them never made it back. >> metal detecting >> opportunistic tourism 😵

When I first heard that, my immediate thought was—well, given the sheer number of wars and mass migrations happening globally, I guess we must be living in some kind of paradise here.😁
And then I remembered that back home in the States, it was usually just the poor folks who were fleeing. :/ So, most people buying a metal detector would probably just end up finding old mines.🤣

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Jul 21, 2012

I just put together a quick translation of what was said in the video. They’re out there claiming they're the top players on the global stage, too. 🤷

If you want actual hard data, you’d probably need to dig into the company itself.

Sims Recycling Solutions

They’re part of a larger group (you can see their ticker symbol and listing over on the right. I imagine if you look for their portfolio or some fundamental analysis, you could find the specific numbers regarding their production volumes).

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · Jul 20, 2012

I know this isn't exactly a groundbreaking trend, and I can't quite recall if we've touched on this here before, but I figured I'd throw it out there...

Urban mining

I suspect most people might miss the point, but here it is anyway: video in Dutch (you can see part of the actual process, so it might actually be worth a look)

Summary (from the video):
- The US - leading the way (doing more recycled metal reclamation via this method than anyone else)
- Reclaiming metals like: Cu, Pb, Ni, Pt, Au, AG, Zn, Al
- There is absolutely no drop in metal quality
- Depending on the specific equipment used, efficiency can be 100-1000x higher than traditional gold mining
(The highest yield/profitability comes from mobile phones, followed by computers, etc.)
- R&D is heavily focused on new extraction techniques, MIT, Austin high-tech campus
- Annual production: Cu=2,000,000 ; AG=450,000kg ; Au=300,000kg 😍 ...........and so on............
- Cumulative various metals: 70,000,000kg/year

Personally, I think I might actually dare to put some money into this field
either into new methods/development
or perhaps even excavating old landfills from back in the 90s to reclaim the pulp.

Applying for a loan while living abroad in Banking, Insurance & Loans · Jul 6, 2012

Richard Mendoza5 said:I spent way too much time haggling with these types offering loans from abroad at 2-5% interest. Eventually settled on one outfit out of the UK. After endless back-and-forth and arguing over terms, I'm just sitting here waiting for the funds. They claim it takes up to five days. We'll see how that goes.

🤦

'Hello sir!

I'm calling from your local credit union to let you know you've won a massive sum of money. We're talking $86 million US Dollars!
The funds should hit your bank account in just a few days!

I just need your routing and account numbers to wire over your winnings! Or, if you prefer, all you need to do to trigger the transfer is cover a small processing fee upfront...'

Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types · May 8, 2012

wearyotter36 said:What's the capital gains tax on silver investments in the USA versus what we deal with here?
Silver seems like a pretty solid way to park some cash 😁
I'll probably pull the trigger this Thursday 😉

Wait, isn't the topic gold? 🤔

Germany, Germany, always winning—they have a 7% tax on small investment coinage, which is actually less than half of their standard sales tax 😍. Silver bars cost a bit more, though. 😍

anyways... gold-silver-bullion-coins-tax-free-from-norway/