Posts by Andrew Barrett4

Here it is. (Though honestly, if it wasn't crypto, you'd still be facing some level of competition here.)

I’ve always leaned toward small bullion, Philharmonic coins, or Krugerrands. There’s just something about being able to pick those up somewhat under the radar. In my opinion, everything else eventually gets eaten away by fees, storage costs, and all that other nonsense.

If we’re talking about standard portfolio balancing, I wouldn't go over 5-15%. That's really only meant to act as an antagonist to everything indexed—you know, something to hold steady when the indices decide to tank.

But if you're actually looking at the 'apocalypse' scenario—preparing for a true black swan event—then it’s not about percentages. It’s about how much physical wealth you can actually carry with you.🤣

It isn't necessarily surging because there’s an influx of cash; interest rates are still sitting pretty low, and volatility—generally speaking—hasn't really spiked, so people aren't exactly panicking yet.

That said... I could probably rattle off at least ten different analysts claiming we'll see another rally before the year wraps up, with most of their targets hovering somewhere around the +/- 1,400 mark.

Personally, I suspect this trend might actually stick around longer than people think. Most companies in the USA didn't climb as fast as everyone anticipated, mainly because that "magic" 2% inflation target is proving much harder to hit than anyone originally bargained for.

Just wait until something truly significant goes sideways in the Middle East; then you'll see how fast things really take off. 🤣

Are you thinking of calling him a failed state predator?

He’s definitely an opportunist. But honestly, who can really blame him for taking what's being laid out on the table? It isn't his fault we ended up in this mess to begin with. This is the result of years of systemic government mismanagement and being led by a bunch of sheep-like leaders who couldn't see straight.

I see him more as a sacrificial lamb, just doing what needs to be done—which is returning the money to the creditors. Once he finishes that job, and once things start going south again here, I suspect he'll just flutter away with some ridiculously large bonus. Meanwhile, we'll be left with the same people who dragged us into this hole in the first place, pointing fingers at Tim Tim without any backup, shouting, "It wasn't us! Not our fault!"
And nothing changes for anyone.

We finally achieved true independence for the first time since the seventh century, paid for in blood, only to essentially throw it all down the drain like this. I guess that's just something only we could manage to do.

I’m just saying, there’s no way Andrew Barrett4 is going to walk away from those hard-earned dollars he worked so damn hard for, just to throw them down the drain for the sake of some issue over in Greece. 😁

I suppose I should try to give you all a little perspective here. 😬

Is there such a thing as an ideal scenario? I suppose I’d vote for a government that actually respects the rule of law, practices some basic fiscal responsibility, and stays on top of its debts.

But then again, the world rarely works out that way... ☕

It would probably come down to greed, I suppose.

Please, let’s be real. You have plenty of smart, highly educated people who fall for this kind of nonsense just because they're naive. Genuinely, hopelessly naive. And if they aren't naive, they're just greedy, which is arguably worse.

I remember when a friend told me "in confidence" about some "inheritance email" involving a transfer through JPMorgan Chase, and you could practically see the dollar signs dancing in her eyes.$

It’s supposedly professional. Even Pomona. All with degrees from state universities.

I mean, what else is there to say...

The indices are holding steady, much like the Euro.

I suppose it’s because the banks consolidated back during that first big Greek meltdown a few years ago.

Plus, I just realized that foreign capital makes up a huge chunk of the Greek market—about 25% from the USA, 17% from Cyprus, and 11% from Luxembourg. So, most of it is actually coming from outside the Eurozone.

If those scars are still relatively fresh, you might want to look into using some Vaseline.
I guess if you’re consistent with applying it, they end up being way less noticeable in the long run. Plus, you won't really deal with that hard, raised texture. It also probably helps lower the risk of getting any weird skin irregularities later on.

Micek, honestly, there’s nothing weird about it. It’s just like how someone with a stutter might struggle more if they’re dealing with an inflexible person. A lot of different tics tend to flare up when you feel like you're being watched under a microscope. It’s just a standard human reaction, I guess.

You can work on improving the things that are actually within your control—the stuff you have influence over. But you aren't responsible for other people's stupidity or their narrow-mindedness. You just have to accept who you are.

And please, don't go around apologizing to anyone, giving them that submissive little smirk, or over-explaining yourself.
Instead, maybe just... 😁 snap back a little when people invade your personal space or follow you around like shadows. It’s rude. I’m exaggerating, obviously, but that’s essentially the point.

Usually, when you look someone straight in the eye and calmly—but firmly—call out a specific behavior, most people will just back off.

Just say it directly: "If you've already decided you trust me, then could you please just let me get this done in peace?" (Basically, you're just carving out some breathing room for yourself).

I suspect you'll generally find you're most successful in careers where people aren't constantly breathing down your neck. Think along the lines of a traveling sales rep, various field roles, or jobs that offer a bit of creative freedom.

Robert Vaughn10 said:That argument holds weight primarily when you're talking about the Dollar. In my view, there's a real shot at hyperinflation there. Though even that's a toss-up. As for the Euro... it's a fog. For years I've written that hyperinflation for the Euro is less likely. I still hold that view.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZkrrZ5zl30k

Gold and silver should probably make their move in about ten years. It seems like you were leaning toward that conclusion too...😉

I don't really buy into the whole hyperinflation narrative either way. To me, it’s more about that long-term, creeping, crippling kind of inflation—the sort that sits around somewhere near 10%. It usually stays hidden behind periods of low velocity and those absolutely insane statistical indices that don't actually reflect what's happening in the real world.

The pace and specific methodology being used by central banks right now—along with the way they’re manipulating precious metal prices—is all designed to dodge any sudden, violent spikes in the cost of living. I guess it's all being done to keep the peace and prevent social unrest, which makes sense from their perspective. But honestly, this whole attempt at "masking" inflation? It’s still just that: a mask. Nothing more.

Robert Vaughn10 said:That argument holds weight primarily when you're talking about the Dollar. In my view, there's a real shot at hyperinflation there. Though even that's a toss-up. As for the Euro... it's a fog. For years I've written that hyperinflation for the Euro is less likely. I still hold that view.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZkrrZ5zl30k

Gold and silver should probably make their move in about ten years. It seems like you were leaning toward that conclusion too...😉

I suppose I am. I’ve been weighing exactly when to add to my positions, and honestly, looking back at when I first jumped in, I feel like I’m still sitting comfortably within a safe margin. There’s no reason to panic or start dumping everything, but I guess there is plenty to talk about regarding when to buy more. 😳.

I also still find myself taking the occasional trip abroad, or sometimes even more long-term excursions to other parts of the world. Since I’ve already shared a bit about this before—which, let's be honest, went pretty much unnoticed—I suppose I'll just offer up another example: click 😁 .
Posted on November 11th.
I bought in. Once the price hits that breaking point, we'll see what happens.
And look at this: Potash Corp.

The part that’s really weighing on me is the money I'm setting aside for construction. To be honest, the paperwork and permits aren't moving nearly as fast as I’d like them to. Since it looks like things aren't going to speed up anytime soon, I’ve actually started shifting my mindset a little bit. Maybe it’s a bad idea, but I’ve started acting contrary to how everyone else seems to be behaving—I’ve been spending more on things that make sense to me, rather than obsessively pinching pennies like I used to. I guess I just can't live in waiting mode forever. 😁

I should probably add this: personally, I tend to view debt through the same lens as any other asset. If you’ve got a loan sitting there with a fixed interest rate and zero currency risk, that's essentially just another hedge in my book. So, that's how I handle it. I don't really see much point in paying it back early.

Robert Vaughn10 said:I’m with Sinclair on this one. This takedown—which might still be playing out—serves a purpose. We could see a massive rally once enough panicked investors have been shaken out. It's happened before. Personally, my long-term outlook hasn't shifted an inch.

But how could the outlook change when it's already been cornered by ammunition and a mountain of accumulated debt?

The last time I picked up a decent amount was quite a while ago, back in the fall. There's no need for panic. I'm not selling anything. Unfortunately, I'm not buying anything this time around either (yet). I just don't have the liquidity to support it right now :/.

It’s all gone. It’s like they thought they were pulling golden meteors out of the sky or something. 😂 😢

A decent read

The real story behind US Gold reserves

If you're suggesting the main difference during that era was just an endless accumulation of debt—basically pure greed—once the gold standard was ditched, then I suppose the whole point of inflation is to erode or just downplay the weight of that debt 😁. Only after things get that far out of hand do interest rates spike, or at least you see some desperate attempts to rein it in, maybe with someone stepping in like a new Volcker.
Anyway, I can respect the disagreement.

🙄 😁

You’ve basically got about 40 pages of actual content here; everything else is just references and an appendix packed with some seriously useful graphs and tables. It’s quite a massive undertaking under the desert sun 🤣

@Dennis Myers6

Here is that script developed through a collaboration between Carnegie Mellon University and the University of Rochester.

The script basically dissects the most recent historical instance where we saw printing money lead to inflation, which then triggered interest rate hikes. I think it’s actually quite useful because it breaks down the specific factors at play right before those rate hikes were implemented—things like rising inflation, falling unemployment, and climbing long-term bond yields.

Also, since it’s written retrospectively—kind of as a post-mortem analysis—it provides a really solid, continuous timeline (check the attachment too). It helps you wrap your head around economic shifts as they unfold over time, which makes it easier to figure out exactly what phase we’re currently stuck in. From what I can see, we are still miles away from seeing rates climb and the PM drop.

One last thing: the script isn't long, so it doesn't require much effort to get through. You really have no excuse not to give it a read. 😍 🤣

Andrew Barrett4 said:The bombshell Goldman Sachs just dropped isn't actually anything new; it’s just a more dramatic way of presenting the scenarios we've already been dissecting in this thread. I guess the theatrical delivery is just a nudge to get us questioning their underlying motives.

Down the road, odysseyinspace20?? suggests that if interest rates do eventually climb, it'll be a dead giveaway that velocity hasn't just picked up, but is basically screaming toward the other extreme.😁.

We just haven't pinned down the small detail: which year. 😁

One shouldn't overlook the long-standing policy of keeping rates low to prop up the economy. Maybe the only thing capable of breaking that trend is a worrying spike in inflation, where hiking rates becomes a necessary countermeasure.

When prices start climbing, it usually means there's money floating around. A lot of it. You can see it in how much industrial activity, retail, and general consumer spending have been picking up lately.

A question for Twitter/X: Is something like that even on the horizon? If not, why would they bother raising rates at all?

The answer pretty much tells you exactly what your move should be regarding gold.

Dennis Myers6 said:Sorry for breaking your post down into pieces, I was just trying to grab the meat of it:
1. Keeping interest rates low is basically just a way to protect the system and all the big players.
2. You're talking about:
a) how the import-export ratio drives domestic currency inflation.
b) global commodity prices versus the strength of a nation's currency, which leads to inflation or higher costs.
3. Yeah... there's always money floating around, but the real issue is that you can't find products at the old prices, or honestly, just finding any product at all.

A line from Wikipedia:
"People know a ton about inflation, but still not enough to actually 'cure' it."

But if you ask me, they can totally dose it out and exploit it whenever they need to keep the system running.
Just sell off some Euros, pull in some Dollars—create an artificial shortage of Clementines or whatever.

If I completely missed the mark here...😍

Anyone...🙂

No need for apologies.

Smart Ass was asking whether she should sell her gold or hold onto it. If she had taken my advice to dump it, it would have been based on the idea that rates will rise and gold will fall. My response was more about how likely that specific scenario actually is.

In reality, by not going into heavy detail, I was simply echoing what Ben said two days ago 😍. He suggested that rates won't be hiked until:
a) the economy really starts humming along,
meaning industry, agriculture, stocks, and everything else sees growth (it's only the availability of cash and investment that drives output);
b) because of all that available cash, things don't become too expensive and (official) inflation doesn't climb
(central banks, as things stand, seem confident that they can control inflation with just a few measures or mouse clicks)
c) and finally, that a rate hike will act as a measure to curb runaway inflation.
It’s nothing new; they’ve always played it this way. Only this time, Paul Volcker barely escaped with his skin intact, and back then, things were looking significantly better than they are now. (Which really makes me wonder who 😍 will actually have the guts to implement these kinds of measures in the future)

Ben said essentially the same thing ('RATES LOW AS LONG AS UNEMPLOYMENT IS ABOVE 6.5%, INFLATION BELOW 2.5%'). The only difference is that instead of using industrial growth like I did in my explanation, he pointed to the unemployment rate (which is inversely proportional, but it functions as an analogy here). In other words, he was just saying the exact same thing through a different lens.

So, I’m not quite sure what part of my point was unclear. 🤷

Edit: Unfortunately, I can't seem to find any actual links regarding those threats against P. V.'s life during his time as chairman.

Do you mind if I take a moment to brag just once? 😁

The bombshell Goldman Sachs just dropped isn't actually anything new; it’s just a more dramatic way of presenting the scenarios we've already been dissecting in this thread. I guess the theatrical delivery is just a nudge to get us questioning their underlying motives.

dustyheron5 said:I'm here...😂

just lurking and reading you all instead of posting...😁

I am currently debating Goldman Sachs and their forecasts:

What should we make of this Goldman Sachs analysis? It’s all very well-written, but the question remains—how realistic is any of it?

The truth is, the global economic landscape is quite grim and prone to further deterioration.

Let's take a closer look at the state of the world economy.

Japan is in a recession, the United Kingdom is stuck in a triple dip, and the European Union hasn't managed to resolve a single one of its issues—even in Germany, industrial production is falling (the Federal Reserve actually signaled a recession back in 2013), while China shows growth, though even they face massive hurdles: poor bank placements, a real estate bubble, weak domestic consumption (Chinese oil demand growth is estimated at only 3.4%—strange, considering their supposed GDP growth of 7-9%), export struggles, stalling foreign investment, and a slowdown in capital inflows...

That leaves us with the USA. They claim a solid growth rate of 2-3%, but we have to note that this is a nominal rate; there isn't actually any real growth happening.

To elaborate, let's look at the granular data: Small business owners—the primary drivers of job creation—are pessimistic, and activity has dropped to its lowest level since 2008. This is driven entirely by uncertainty regarding the business climate—tax hikes, regulation, and potential instability surrounding budget cuts and fiscal policy.

On the other hand, rail freight in the USA is declining, and food stamp recipients have increased by a million in just the last two months. This doesn't exactly look like a genuine recovery.

Ultimately, the situation provides little foundation for the optimism being peddled by Goldman Sachs analysts regarding the recovery of the American and global economies.

What really fails to hold water, however, is the rise in interest rates—specifically the shift from real negative rates to real positive ones.

Undoubtedly, this would lead to decreased interest in buying gold; yet, given the Federal Reserve's policies regarding the IRS and FBI, which Bernanke explained several times as necessary, the question is whether this can be achieved without collapsing the budget.

Such a scenario would make it nearly impossible for overleveraged nations—like Japan, the USA, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and others—to service their debts...

Of course, one could also view Goldman Sachs' narrative through the lens of their proverbial "upside-down chicken" approach, where they constantly lure clients into behaviors contrary to their own best interests just to maximize their own profits—a legend that has long circulated 😍 throughout the capital markets.

Down the road, odysseyinspace20?? suggests that if interest rates do eventually climb, it'll be a dead giveaway that velocity hasn't just picked up, but is basically screaming toward the other extreme.😁.

We just haven't pinned down the small detail: which year. 😁

One shouldn't overlook the long-standing policy of keeping rates low to prop up the economy. Maybe the only thing capable of breaking that trend is a worrying spike in inflation, where hiking rates becomes a necessary countermeasure.

When prices start climbing, it usually means there's money floating around. A lot of it. You can see it in how much industrial activity, retail, and general consumer spending have been picking up lately.

A question for Twitter/X: Is something like that even on the horizon? If not, why would they bother raising rates at all?

The answer pretty much tells you exactly what your move should be regarding gold.