Nicholas King said:Actually, I'd argue the exact opposite.
To start with, the Republican Party currently maintains an incredibly high approval rating. The days when their numbers were hovering below fifty percent are—well, they're gone. Those times have passed.
Beyond the usual partisan loyalty, a significant chunk of that support rests precisely on the fact that their internal "Game of Thrones" remains largely invisible—or at least successfully hidden from the public eye, if you will. Voters walk away with this impression that the Republican Party is the "guarantor of stability," and that’s why they keep backing them.
In fact, economic indicators seem almost secondary to the rating compared to the simple reality that Planković, through his constant left-right political maneuvering, somehow manages to keep both the progressives and the conservatives within the party under one roof.
Because of all that, any potential success from the Democratic Mayor's leadership in Washington, D.C.—especially if he could maintain a coalition without triggering internal warfare—would actually be terrible news for the Republican Party. It would turn the question of "Well, who else is there, really?"—a question we see quite often even here on these forums—into a very concrete, very uncomfortable answer...
The Republican Party does not have high ratings. In the last elections, they pulled in a total of 621,008 votes. They have 220,000 members. So, even ignoring their own base, they only secured 401,000 votes. That means every single member brought in less than two votes.
But honestly, even that dismal statistic isn't the worst thing to hit the Republican Party. From one election to the next, they are losing voters. Not by the hundreds, not by the thousands... but by tens of thousands. Over the last two parliamentary cycles, they lost roughly 60,000 votes. And no, that wasn't some fluke. It’s a trend. Sure, lower turnout and disciplined membership make it harder to spot, but you can't deny it...
On the flip side, the Democratic Party coalition (which the Democratic Party largely fuels) pulled 414,000 votes last year. If the Democratic Party provided 350,000 of those votes (and it was likely more), then every single Democratic member yielded 9.9 additional votes. Just for comparison...