crimsonstag84 said:I guess we would have seen a real battle between Vettel and Hamilton at the end if they'd stuck with the Mercedes strategy and gone for three stops.
What kind of logic are you using to come up with that bold claim?
Qualifying tires eat up about 30% of their life in just three laps. Plus, you've got massive degradation differences because the track surface changes after thirty laps compared to the start, not to mention how much more the tires wear when the car is heavy with fuel...
Bottom line: there’s zero theory suggesting Hamilton could have lasted more than maybe 8 laps at the start. That much is obvious, considering his ceiling was only those 14 laps on fresh rubber during the second half of the race...
Honestly, even if he could stay out, he’d just be sitting there 2-3 seconds slower than the Williams cars and the rest of the pack behind him...
Besides, everyone is totally ignoring the fact that almost everyone pitted, not just Mercedes...
The ones who stayed out:
Sainz (on fresh tires for 14 laps) drops
about a second and a half between his best lap after the restart and his final lap before pitting.
Perez & Hulk (on fresh tires—Perez for 17 laps, Hulk for 15—and knowing how gentle Hulk is on rubber) and lo and behold,
both drop roughly 2 seconds between their best lap after the restart and their last lap before hitting the pits.
And aside from Vettel, that would’ve been it. 😉
Now look at Vettel:
Vettel vs HamiltonIt’s not a huge sample size, but Vettel’s third lap was faster than his second, while Hamilton’s third lap was already half a second slower than his second... maybe he was already struggling with the Haas while navigating traffic. 😬
Vettel’s times are incredibly consistent from the restart all the way through 16 laps... the spread is only about 0.9 seconds. 😳
The guys who stayed out on fresh mediums were actually dropping more time, even though they spent less time on track and had brand new tires...
Now imagine what it would've been like for the Ferraris once you look at Hamilton’s later (and shorter) stint on new mediums, where he dropped 1.6 seconds from start to finish.
Man, he would've been down at least 3-4 seconds over those imaginary 11 laps on used mediums. They knew that perfectly well, which is exactly why they happily ducked into the pits under the Safety Car. 😉