Posts by Michael Ortiz68

Gregory Ramos3 said:Russian:

12.36

The Russian government just dialed back its forecast for the 2022 economic slump.

The Russian economy is looking at a contraction of just over two percent this year—which is actually way milder than everyone was bracing for—and inflation should be staying relatively chill too, according to Vice Prime Minister Andrej Belousov.

While the Russian economy has definitely taken some hits from all those massive sanctions Western nations slapped on them following the invasion of Ukraine, it turns out the fallout isn't quite as catastrophic as the early doomsday scenarios suggested, per Reuters.

On Monday, Belousov mentioned that Russian GDP will drop by "a little more than two percent" this year, and they’re aiming for no more than a one percent dip in 2023.

I mean, the Russians have been pretty consistent with their story so far, so why wouldn't we just take them at their word instead of worrying about all those fancy independent analyses? It's all just a bunch of nonsense anyway, haha! ☕

Huehue

gentleviper62 said:Everyone is fleeing Russia, yet according to the latest projections, their GDP is only dipping by 2%.

Which "latest estimates" are we talking about here?

Donna Harris11 said:Logitech is pulling out of the Russian market

And so are Ericsson and Nokia

What actually happened to Gojko Drljača? 😲

hollowwalker24 said:Donald Trump and Donald Trump are out here spreading propaganda:

Goldman Sachs says US Economy is stronger than expected and will only suffer a shallow recession despite sanctions
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmor...154051281.html

I guess this is proof that sanctions are working exactly as intended:

Despite sweeping sanctions, US economic Outlook Has improved since April — though things have gone downhill for basically everyone else
https://www.businessinsider.com/imf-...cession-2022-7

We are looking at a forecast for a decline here... which means instead of an 8.5% drop, we might be looking at closer to 6%.

And forecasts are just that—forecasts. Nobody managed to accurately predict growth for Germany (it was 0.1%, but still growth), absolutely nobody, not even their own national statistical agency.

Larry Fox5 said:Let’s be real here—so far, these sanctions aren't doing a damn thing. We're talking six months in already...
The whole grand plan was that the sanctions would trigger a revolt from the American elite—you know, those oligarchs with their frozen bank accounts everywhere—and then eventually the public would follow suit.
The idea was that a critical mass would finally form and actually kick Putin out of power. But instead? His grip just tightened through pure terror, and that whole theory has completely fallen apart.

At this rate, this miserable status quo and this endless, drawn-out war will probably drag on until he dies—because there is zero chance he’s ever just stepping down on his own...

Personally, I never saw that as the actual goal of sanctions, especially since that hasn't worked anywhere else in history. In every other country that has faced sanctions, this outcome just hasn't happened.

Morgan Morales4 said:Oh, you know, just enough little things to get the ball rolling. Honestly, the history of this conflict doesn't just start with the aggression in February like the West likes to claim. You can't just cherry-pick parts of the story whenever it suits your narrative, you know?

Please... you really missed the mark by getting the start date of the aggression wrong. No big deal, right?

Morgan Morales4 said:I mean, look at how Macron was over at Putin's place sitting at that massive table on February 7th. It’s not like he didn't realize on the evening of the 6th that he could just pop over to The White House whenever he felt like it for his own little reasons.☕

So, let me repeat: what exactly happened on January 22nd?

Bryan Booth82 said:Because of sanctions on Russia, the EU loses $200 billion... per month.🤔🤔
By that logic, the EU has been exporting $200 billion worth of goods to Russia every month that they now can't move anywhere else.🤔
It’s just bizarre, especially when you consider that Russia is a nation of 150 million people with an economy comparable to that of Spain.
🤔

Following that line of reasoning... there's just no sense to it. Russian propaganda simply lacks any shred of logic.
Best regards,

There is plenty of logic involved—as soon as a Russian oligarch gives the order, the subjects are expected to listen rather than question.🙂

The German economy actually saw a bit of growth, catching both economic experts and the national statistical bureau by surprise. I can only imagine what it felt like for the actual

rustywalker82 said:Gas also contributes to the greenhouse effect, and there isn't some magical ecological win if everything ends up being insanely expensive because we're forced into massive, pricey new investments. When costs skyrocket like that, it just drains the money away from actually subsidizing truly green energy sources.
It isn't that simple. At the end of the day, you have to look at what it actually costs on the bill.

That wasn't quite my point... I was focusing more on the financing aspect. Gas and renewables are being lumped together under the "green" umbrella specifically so these projects can access subsidies and funding, even though their actual GHG profiles are worlds apart.

The whole strategy is designed so that gas research and infrastructure projects aren't flagged as being at odds with green policy, regardless of the reality of the situation.

Morgan Morales4 said:I'm right there with you. Honestly, some people would rather freeze solid just to see Putin fail and watch Russia finally fracture the way certain folks want it to. Tell me, do you have some kind of study showing how an industry, say Dow Chemical, could run just as smoothly without gas as they do with it? Meanwhile, you guys have gone all-in on solar, wind, and thermal pumps, running a company powered by every "miracle" of green tech available.
Russia is a reality, and history didn't just start on January 22nd. Western civilization won't get past this without using both conscience and common sense—and let’s not forget how much less of a "problem" oil, gas, and sunflower oil were when Iraq and Syria were being torn apart. We aren't going to move forward by ignoring that.

And what exactly happened on January 22nd?

rustywalker82 said:It’s basically a massive strategic blunder, right? Why would we dump billions into developing huge new gas fields outside of the US and then sink even more cash into this insane logistics nightmare—moving stuff twice on land, twice at sea, and then twice more on the coast—all while simultaneously trying to fund a total decarbonization push where gas is already considered redundant?
If you went back in time ten times and expected that kind of outcome, it wouldn't have happened once. Maybe if we had actually doubled down on those types of investments back then instead of being so cautious, we might have seen a different result just once.

There isn't some deep, hidden wisdom here. It’s really just about implementing smart sanctions. Honestly, pushing the narrative about sanctioning NS2 right now instead of focusing on price caps feels less like strategy and more like falling down a rabbit hole of conspiracy theories.

That isn't quite how it works.

Nathan Evans78 said:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...acing-shutoffs

According to Bloomberg, we’re looking at a massive struggle right now—at least 20 million households, which is roughly one in six American homes, are falling behind on their utility bills. These skyrocketing electricity prices are triggering what's being described as the worst utility payment crisis we've ever seen.

I have to wonder, what on earth is going on over in New York City? I was looking at this chart yesterday, and checking their site again today, it looks like traders are panicking and buying up everything at $300+ per unit. It seems like these buyers haven't really grasped the situation yet; they're missing the fact that Europe has already secured its supplies for the winter, so things should actually be looking fine. 🙏 🙏

https://www.investing.com/commoditie...treaming-chart

So, what’s the actual play here? Didn't the Americans cook up this whole situation just so they could ship LNG over to Europe and walk away with the biggest payday from this war?

Terry Green3 said:But hey, we’re special. We won't make a sound, so there's no point in anyone even trying to warn us.

We’ve never really known what it means to be wealthy, so I suppose we handle the scarcity better.
Drawing some parallels here, I agree with the others: an average Russian—someone who still complains about the World Cup being held in Poland (hyperbole intended)—is going to weather these sanctions much easier than some European.
They have plenty of energy, plenty of food, and honestly, they don't need much else to get by. They don't know any better.

Emmanuel Macron actually said this back on February 26th during an address to French farmers.

It just goes to show that politicians love to push the same tired talking points, regardless of where they find themselves.

feralhawk45 said:Of course people are tracking this. I'm convinced we won't see any freezing this winter. As for energy conservation, I look at that through a cultural lens—it's an environmental thing for me.
I’m keeping a close eye on the numbers coming out of Canada and Mexico (who, by the way, haven't even shared their data yet)... wouldn't want them getting burned by putting too much faith in Putin and his promises.

Austria is in the same boat, too.

I honestly don't follow all this climate hysteria.

For what it's worth, my local summer temperature usually hovers around 82 degrees.🤷

rowdyraven112 said:There’s a massive crowd here claiming the European Union will just replace fuel supplies around the corner. No crisis, right? Looking at the big picture, this is the first global crisis directly engineered by Russia in cooperation with other world governments. ☕

Just like the crowd of users who knew Russia would invade Ukraine. I didn't see it coming. It caught me off guard because I couldn't believe Vladimir Putin would be that much of a scumbag. Whatever, I was wrong. While everyone else gets to say "I told you so," ☕

Give me a break. You wrote here: "after sanctions are placed on Russia, it won't affect the EU market and economy positively."

Which forum user specifically claimed that sanctioning Russia would have a positive impact on the "EU economy"? I've been following this since the very start of the aggression, and I don't recall seeing a single post like that.

rowdyraven112 said:So, when most of us objectively said that sanctions wouldn't do much good for the economy or the market, we were labeled Putinophiles, right? And remember how everyone claimed the European Union would quickly replace everything they used to import from Russia? I said it wouldn't happen that fast. Well, we just confirmed that the OPEC countries—who people like you claimed would save the European Union economy—are actually just greedy war profiteers on par with Vladimir Putin. ☕

You know what’s peak stupidity? When half the Western-leaning posters shouted "I told you so" after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Give me a break. You think you're CIA level because you "knew" Russia was going to invade while only Joe Biden was warning them and nobody else? ☕

Look, I'll admit it: I was one of the few calling it straight from the start—that Vladimir Putin is a calculating bastard and that Russia invaded Ukraine. But suggesting we cut them out of global trade without any calculation or analysis? That’s about as smart as a Vlade Vukojević thesis at a community college in Indianapolis. ☕

Take fruit and vegetable farmers in the Midwest, for example, whose products mostly went to Eastern markets. They already had issues back in 2014 with the Russian occupation of Crimea, so they managed by selling to middlemen in other countries who then flipped the produce for a higher price. Now, they'll be forced to sell below cost to war profiteers in OPEC nations, who will then flip it again at an even higher price for the Russian market. What's the result? You destroy local family farms. Our domestic population isn't big enough to buy up all the production, even if we ate nothing but tomatoes, melons, tangerines, and oranges all day long. Lower prices lead to less production, fewer jobs, and shut-down operations. Once production dies, there's no god alive who can easily restart it. We saw this during the COVID crisis when lockdowns hit and oil and gas wells were shut down because demand plummeted. As soon as things returned to normal, gas prices spiked—not because there wasn't enough supply, but because everyone started demanding massive amounts at once. Restarting a well isn't some trivial task. Ask any mining engineer. ☕

As for the posters defending the other side, I'm just fascinated by your "doctorates" from community colleges in Indianapolis and the absolute nonsense that comes out of them. ☕

There isn't a single person on this forum who hasn't not been claiming this since the invasion began, regardless of which side they take...

I don't quite get the need to emphasize that you specifically were saying it, because everyone was saying it. Is this some attempt to act like you're uniquely brilliant or 🤷

rowdyraven112 said:The team seems to have slept through the last two years. Clearly bears. ☕

Prices spiked because we switched from pipelines to shipping gas to LNG terminals, and those ships account for a massive chunk of consumption.☕
As far as I know, container shipping from China alone jumped 4x, making it pointless for some companies to even bother importing from China anymore. Also, alongside that table, he should’ve included a graph showing gas consumption during the lockdowns versus after. Producers likely started shutting down wells, and reopening them isn't cheap—nor is it easy.☕
Think about how many times people went to fill their propane tanks before the lockdowns compared to during them.

Five times over in just a single year.

hiddeneagle98 said:I mean, seriously, looking at these current prices... even the Dutch would probably start risking those structurally questionable houses in Amsterdam by reopening some dangerously unstable gas field just to make a buck.

This news keeps popping up more frequently, first appearing in Bloomberg and then being covered recently by Tanja Rudež. Apparently, it's become one of the hottest topics in the Netherlands right now.