Posts by Michael Ortiz68

Linda Collins3 said:I'm curious about this one. What caused such a massive ten-fold spike?

You can find some context here:

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...ll-year-rising

Article from December 2021

urbanotter said:The war in Ukraine is really just the tip of the iceberg compared to what's been unfolding over the last two years.

1. The failed attempts at managing the pandemic spread.

2. The massive spike in shipping costs from China to the US, jumping from around $2,000 to $20,000.

3. The surge in energy prices triggered by the war in Ukraine.

4. The fact that about 30% of the wheat and oilseed supply from Ukraine and Russia is simply unavailable.

5. The rising costs of raw materials.

Essentially, when you combine all of this—keeping in mind that war is often used as a convenient excuse to hike prices (they would have gone up regardless; the war just dictates the pace)—you get the current situation. We've seen plenty of examples over the last three months where market prices actually dipped below what they were years ago, yet retail prices kept climbing simply because politicians pointed fingers at Ukraine.

And honestly, we deserve it.

Linda Collins3 said:https://www.statista.com/graphic/1/3...oil-prices.jpg

It's a decent chart illustrating when oil prices actually started their climb. But of course, if Ukraine had just surrendered immediately and the European Union hadn't bothered with sanctions, everything would be coming up roses for our domestic companies.

goldenpuma84 said:Actually, this is all getting pretty off-topic.

And that’s just my take on the question.

Bottom line: I try to keep a level playing field for everyone.

Something most people here clearly can't do.

Anyway, we're looking at inflation, recession, layoffs, social unrest, and general misery ahead—the perfect breeding ground for anyone selling cheap fixes.

Once that becomes the new normal, denying reality won't matter anymore.

Go ahead and keep doing what you're doing.

Since that's what you asked for.

Of course, it’s also an opportunity for a comeback. Nothing fertilizes growth quite like a pile of broken illusions...

And you're claiming the Russia-Ukraine war is the root cause of all that? 🥱?

You really are a true Biden supporter. You actually believe he's convincing Americans that Vladimir Putin is the reason for their inflation, even though this inflation in the States has been dragging on for at least 14 months now.

Anthony Taylor3 said:Let me reiterate that for you.

The Baltic republics lack strategic depth and aren't viable staging grounds for an invasion of Russia. Between the bottleneck in Lithuania at the Panama Canal and the enclosed nature of the Baltic Sea, there isn't enough room to station a force large enough to launch an offensive.
Ukraine is an entirely different matter.
And since 1999, Russia hasn't had much faith in the Western Bloc. Just try to imagine why.

Let me reiterate... it's clear as day that Ukraine isn't getting into NATO anytime soon... and that's coming straight from the top, from their own president.
Every analyst out there agrees that Ukraine just isn't ready for NATO membership, and frankly, nobody can see how they’d even be integrated.

NATO is nothing more than a smokescreen for Russia to go after Ukrainian resources. It's the same old story with "denazification" and those "bio-labs." Since the last two claims are so utterly moronic that only people whose brains have been turned to mush by Russian and Mexican propaganda could actually swallow them, we're left with this NATO smokescreen—which, clearly, is finding plenty of takers here.

Anthony Taylor3 said:Not to mention, NATO cluster bombs aren't exactly great for your health either. Perhaps that's exactly why Russia isn't particularly thrilled about having an alliance right on their doorstep.

The Western Bloc countries already share borders with Russia.
Ukraine hasn't even applied for NATO membership.
And even if they had, they wouldn't be let in.

What do you all think...

It doesn't matter; all this talk about Ukraine joining NATO was nonsense that was debunked within the first few days of the war. It’s an idea so outdated even the Russians don't bother with it anymore. NATO isn't out there handing out invitations and coaxing countries to join their ranks.

goldenpuma84 said:That’s just not true. It’s basically just a lie on repeat.

There are some lines you just don't cross.

You don't see Mexico joining a military alliance with China. You don't see Ukraine in NATO.

Whoever is pushing for that wants war. They're practically begging for it.

And if you're doing this knowing it leads to war, what's your actual agenda? What's the motivation, and where does the responsibility lie?

Man, you just don't do that...

So tell me, how did you react when Iraq was invaded? Is there something wrong with your moral compass while you're busy lecturing everyone else?

Or are they just subhuman, like denijama said, so their destruction doesn't actually matter to us?

Nobody is actually inviting anyone into NATO. This war has nothing to do with NATO, regardless of how much certain biased news outlets try to spin it that way.

This conflict is just like most other major wars throughout history—it's fundamentally a war over resources.

darkdriver said:Honestly, you can only make things worse

From what I gather—and please, feel free to set me straight if there’s some food scientist or whatever out there who knows better—natural gas is one of the biggest, maybe even *the* most critical components when it comes to making fertilizer.
Just a quick side note here...
Malaria is basically a disease that we could pretty much entirely prevent or at least treat, but despite all our crazy tech and medical breakthroughs, something like 400,000 kids still die from it every single year.
Does anyone sitting on their high horse about morality actually give a damn?
Is there even a thread about this on the forums?
Or is it just considered irrelevant because they're mostly just little Black kids who aren't being shoved down our throats daily by CNN, BBC, and the rest of the mainstream media?
I guess it's just that old saying—out of sight, out of mind.

As long as there are empaths like you running around, there’s still hope for this world. suzakrenula:

goldenpuma84 said:First off, it's not about how much we talk about something, it's about how we talk about one thing constantly while saying absolutely NOTHING about the others.

Second, the reason we don't hear much about those other conflicts is partly due to the legacy of European colonialism, and partly because the West actively played a role in tearing those societies apart. We pretend that doesn't exist, then act shocked by the actions of the Russians.

Third, Europeans tend to downplay the impact of those wars, yet they expect the whole world to be outraged over what's happening in Ukraine. In fact, they don't just downplay it—they show a total lack of interest because, in their eyes, these are just "developing" nations that the West (USA) and its allies can manipulate at will.

Fourth, the European Union didn't want Ukraine as a member before, and they aren't rushing to make it happen now. So, you have to wonder if people actually identify with the Ukrainian struggle. It feels like Europeans only feel this sudden "connection" to the Ukrainian people because it's the dominant media narrative... until now, they were just portrayed as another corrupt Eastern European mess.

This simply isn't true.

There was plenty of coverage regarding the conflicts in Libya and Syria—extensive, detailed, and front-page news for quite some time.

The protests against the war in Iraq actually pulled much larger crowds than what we're seeing now with the demonstrations over Ukraine. ☕

Paul Kern12 said:At least he is being honest—he actually admits it openly—whereas over here, everything seems to be shrouded in this constant, murky maneuvering.

Even an Average Joe or an Average Matt knows life is about to get a lot harder for everyone.

But the idea that he’ll walk away from this politically unscathed? That’s definitely not how they usually operate. Then again, whatever. They already pushed through a law that basically makes him untouchable, so George can grumble all he wants.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Quincey:

Cahit As requested: I spent some time today wading through that absolute load of garbage. It isn't just that the sanctions—the very ones they swore would be painless—have suddenly become a massive headache. There is a second, more calculated move at play here: attempting to convince their own people that Westerners are nothing but villains because the strikes didn't just target the elite, but hit the average American citizen instead. So, he says... What exactly is the goal here, gentlemen? What are you all trying to achieve? 🙏 The political elite remains unperturbed. It is a characteristic lack of concern, much like watching a captain ignore the cracks spreading across a ship's hull while sipping expensive scotch in the lounge. They simply do not flinch.

I find myself agreeing with Dimon. When he claims that sanctions will primarily crush the common citizen rather than the ruling elite, he’s hitting the nail on the head. The top tier? They’ll manage just fine. They won't feel the sting of missing out on material luxuries; their only real inconvenience will be scouting out new destinations for their shopping trips, vacations, or sailing their yachts. It serves as a blunt message to the public: the West is punishing you for decisions made by people who aren't even affected by them. The leadership will simply pivot and bypass the restrictions, leaving the populace to shoulder the burden. In short, the subtext is clear: you're on your own. If you're suffering, it's because you allowed this leadership to stay in power in the first place.

Well, obviously they will... but I find it fascinating how elegantly he frames that reality to his own people.

Imagine if Macron one day told Americans: things are going to get rough for you, but don't worry, those of us at the top won't be affected.

They’d tear him apart by sundown.

wearyheron5 said:IPSE DIXIT Dmitry Medvedev
(my bolded excerpt follows)

"Sanctions against Russia target ordinary citizens and are fueled by pure hatred. (...) What’s the goal of freezing Federal Reserve assets and other state property? It's simple. To wreck the economy, tank the currency, and spike inflation, effectively lowering the standard of living for the average Russian citizen. >
The embargo on Russian oil and gas? Same playbook: drain budget revenues and force the government to abandon social safety nets, including cost-of-living adjustments. Hit the taxpayers in both the cities and the rural towns."

Dmitry Medvedev, May 31, 2022.

*********

"We have every tool necessary for self-sufficiency. In many ways, previous sanctions actually served us well. They forced us to develop import substitution across all sectors—including high-tech industries—to innovate new technologies, products, and pharmaceuticals. The government has already implemented measures to support both the people and the economy through social benefits and increased funding for the tech, agricultural, and banking sectors. There will be no economic collapse."

Dmitry Medvedev. March 20, 2022.

🤔

That escalated quickly...

The latest invention from the Kremlin kitchen: Schrödinger sanctions. They are simultaneously devastating and beneficial; they drive up inflation while being welcomed because they spur domestic growth and consolidate Russian society.

I read this nonsense today.

Not only have the sanctions—which they insisted wouldn't be felt—suddenly become problematic, but now the second step is trying to convince their own people that Westerners are so malicious that they aren't targeting the elite, but rather the little guy.

So he claims....

The "endless tango of economic sanctions" won't touch the political elite. Medvedev stated that the oil and gas sanctions are targeted at taxpayers and meant to force the government into budget cuts.

Give me a break, guys 🙏the political elite isn't even breaking a sweat

I've been listening to people drone on about how Europe is falling apart and crumbling for over twenty years now... Here's one thing that isn't ☕

hollowdriver13 said:They were actually getting maybe around 15% of their gas from Russia.

True. I can't pretend this move carries nearly as much weight as it would if, say, Austria had pulled a stunt like this.

George Robinson43 said:Their storage levels were simply whatever the bosses in Moscow dictated they should be.
When it comes to Germany, it's all about the SPD. It's all about those little pushovers. 😉

The Americans couldn't care less. In just a few months, they'll be done with Russia forever. Meanwhile, Scholz and the rest of those Russian puppets have to pray to God every single day that Ukraine just gives up.

Compared to other EU nations, the Netherlands hasn't relied on Russian gas nearly as much, so this looks more like a strategic PR move on their part.

steelfox98 said:Adria Company remains operational, ensuring energy flows to Germany and Poland.
It’s worth noting that the Swabians were actually the first ones to quietly accept those Russian payment terms.
The Americans in Poland, who usually make the most noise about standing up to Russia, are now hypocritically bragging about cutting off Russian gas, when in reality they're just using what they call "German" gas. It doesn't exist—it's just Germans rerouting Russian supply.

The real question is what happens when certain EU countries realize they're paying a massive premium compared to those still playing ball with Russia.

When ExxonMobil cut them off, the volume of "German" gas coming in was essentially identical to what they used to get from Russia. So, there is some merit to your point.

That said, during this current month, the Pipeline was opened up with an annual capacity of 1.9 bcm. That definitely makes them less dependent. It’s not as if Americans are completely clueless—their storage capacity levels are currently the highest in the European Union... I wonder how that compares to Germany's 🙂?

wiredseal7 said:There were whispers that this doesn't apply to the pipelines—probably just Orban's way of playing hardball.

For us, this summer is going to be a real riot. Since we're basically a major road-trip destination here in the States, current gas prices are already going to wreck us. I'm not sure if they're pulling the trigger now or at the end of the year, but even the mere threat of these measures sends pump prices climbing ahead of time.
Man, you have to wonder who's actually running this sad little Union...

We heard this exact same song and dance when the Russian aggression first started. Everyone was panicking about tourism collapsing, inflation spiking, and gas prices soaring—there’s an entire thread on this forum dedicated to it. And yet, look at us now; the streets are practically overflowing with tourists.☕

Melissa Bailey5 said:from 60 up to 100 dollars

had shot up to 100 dollars from 60

I misread that in my rush. My bad.

Melissa Bailey5 said:New York Times: With prices climbing, the outlook for the Russian economy is getting 'pretty grim'

Jumped from 60 up to 100???